Which Team Will Win vs the bookmakers

Prediction success Forecast accuracy

Every bookmaker Market average

How close every published probability has run to what actually happened.

The running order

Betway 73.7%

Unibet 73.6%

Coral 73.6%

Ladbrokes 73.6%

William Hill 73.6%

Betfred 73.6%

Sky Bet 69.8%

Bet365 69.7%

bwin 69.7%

Paddy Power 69.7%

Betfair 69.6%

BetVictor 69.6%

Which Team Will Win 69.5%

After 7 gameweeks

The space between two lines is the difference in accuracy score at that gameweek. Bookmakers on close figures share a line, shaded across the spread between them. Point at the chart for the scores, or at a group's line for each bookmaker in it. Draws count. Each forecast is scored on every match we hold it for – 69 for us. Our records of William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, Betway and Betfred start at gameweek 6, so their figures rest on 19 matches against our 69. Over those same 19 we scored 72.4%, which is the fair comparison.

Chris Sutton is not in this one – he publishes a scoreline, not probabilities, so there is no forecast to grade. He is on the other tab.

Only 19 matches in so far for the latest arrivals – the gaps between these lines are mostly luck until there are a few hundred.

How close every published probability has run to what actually happened.

The running order

Betway 73.7%

Unibet 73.6%

Coral 73.6%

Ladbrokes 73.6%

William Hill 73.6%

Betfred 73.6%

Sky Bet 69.8%

Bet365 69.7%

bwin 69.7%

Paddy Power 69.7%

Betfair 69.6%

BetVictor 69.6%

Which Team Will Win 69.5%

After 69 matches

The space between two lines is the difference in accuracy score at that match. Bookmakers on close figures share a line, shaded across the spread between them. Point at the chart for the scores, or at a group's line for each bookmaker in it. Draws count. Each forecast is scored on every match we hold it for – 69 for us. Our records of William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, Betway and Betfred start at gameweek 6, so their figures rest on 19 matches against our 69. Over those same 19 we scored 72.4%, which is the fair comparison.

Chris Sutton is not in this one – he publishes a scoreline, not probabilities, so there is no forecast to grade. He is on the other tab.

Only 19 matches in so far for the latest arrivals – the gaps between these lines are mostly luck until there are a few hundred.

How close every published probability has run to what actually happened.

The running order

Bookmakers, average 69.7%

Which Team Will Win 69.5%

After 7 gameweeks

The space between two lines is the difference in accuracy score at that gameweek. Point at one for the scores themselves. Draws count. Everyone is scored on the same 69 matches.

Chris Sutton is not in this one – he publishes a scoreline, not probabilities, so there is no forecast to grade. He is on the other tab.

How close every published probability has run to what actually happened.

The running order

Bookmakers, average 69.7%

Which Team Will Win 69.5%

After 69 matches

The space between two lines is the difference in accuracy score at that match. Point at one for the scores themselves. Draws count. Everyone is scored on the same 69 matches.

Chris Sutton is not in this one – he publishes a scoreline, not probabilities, so there is no forecast to grade. He is on the other tab.

The percentage of calls that have named the winner, gameweek by gameweek.

The running order

Which Team Will Win 71%

bwin 67%

BetVictor 67%

William Hill 67%

Ladbrokes 67%

Coral 67%

Unibet 67%

Betway 67%

Betfred 67%

Bet365 65%

Paddy Power 65%

Sky Bet 65%

Betfair 65%

Chris Sutton (BBC) 51%

After 7 gameweeks

The space between two lines is the difference in strike rate at that gameweek. Bookmakers on close figures share a line, shaded across the spread between them. Point at the chart for the rates, or at a group's line for each bookmaker in it. Drawn matches are left out. Each forecast is scored on every match we hold it for – 49 for us. Our records of William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, Betway and Betfred start at gameweek 6, so their figures rest on 15 matches against our 49. Over those same 15 we called 73%, which is the fair comparison.

Only 15 matches in so far for the latest arrivals – the gaps between these lines are mostly luck until there are a few hundred.

The percentage of calls that have named the winner, match by match.

The running order

Which Team Will Win 71%

bwin 67%

BetVictor 67%

William Hill 67%

Ladbrokes 67%

Coral 67%

Unibet 67%

Betway 67%

Betfred 67%

Bet365 65%

Paddy Power 65%

Sky Bet 65%

Betfair 65%

Chris Sutton (BBC) 51%

After 49 matches

The space between two lines is the difference in strike rate at that match. Bookmakers on close figures share a line, shaded across the spread between them. Point at the chart for the rates, or at a group's line for each bookmaker in it. Drawn matches are left out. Each forecast is scored on every match we hold it for – 49 for us. Our records of William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, Betway and Betfred start at gameweek 6, so their figures rest on 15 matches against our 49. Over those same 15 we called 73%, which is the fair comparison.

Only 15 matches in so far for the latest arrivals – the gaps between these lines are mostly luck until there are a few hundred.

The percentage of calls that have named the winner, gameweek by gameweek.

The running order

Which Team Will Win 71%

Bookmakers, average 67%

Chris Sutton (BBC) 51%

After 7 gameweeks

The space between two lines is the difference in strike rate at that gameweek. Point at one for the rates themselves. Drawn matches are left out. Everyone is scored on the same 49 matches.

The percentage of calls that have named the winner, match by match.

The running order

Which Team Will Win 71%

Bookmakers, average 67%

Chris Sutton (BBC) 51%

After 49 matches

The space between two lines is the difference in strike rate at that match. Point at one for the rates themselves. Drawn matches are left out. Everyone is scored on the same 49 matches.

Gameweek 7

Still to play

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Coventry City

Monday 19th October 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 7

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Tottenham Hotspur win

Knife-edge – Tottenham Hotspur shade it

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The key stat: Defence. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. Tottenham Hotspur lead it, 1.13 to 1.76. Historically, whoever was harder to score against takes these roughly 69% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

The callKnife-edge – Tottenham Hotspur 43%, draw 27%, Coventry City 30%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
WhyThe lean to Tottenham Hotspur comes from home advantage, the long-run strength gap and the defence in front of them.
For Tottenham HotspurDefence 1.13 v 1.76 (clear); XI defensive record 1.27 v 1.54 (useful); GK save rate 65% v 61% (useful).
For Coventry CityShots on target 3.7 v 3.5 (marginal).
FormTottenham Hotspur L-D-D-L-D, Coventry City L-L-L-W-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1 expected · 16 unavailable · 1 doubtfulCoventry City 3-4-2-1 expected · 11 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Coventry City 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

Kinsky98%
J. Van Hecke98%
M. Van de Ven81%
A. Robertson61%
S. Tonali98%
A. Gray64%
M. Fernandes54%
M. Tel39%
C. Gallagher38%
O. Marmoush80%
Solanke57%

C. Rushworth98%
B. Thomas98%
J. Dasilva98%
E. Pinnock81%
M. van Ewijk80%
J. BidwellNEW40%
M. Grimes98%
J. Rudoni92%
E. Mason-Clark86%
C. Yirenkyi61%
T. Awoniyi55%

Likely subs D. Udogie, M. Kudus, J. Maddison, Tosin, M. Dubravka, B. Davies, Senesi

Likely subs Y. Gboho, F. Onyeka, B. Thomas-Asante, B. Wilson, V. Torp, G. Hamer, E. Simms

Doubts R. Bentancur suspended, Sávio injured, Pedro Porro injured, A. Phillips unavailable, L. Bergvall injured, M. Mudryk injured, M. Moore unavailable, D. Kulusevski doubtful

Doubts A. Amenda injured, H. Wright injured, L. Kitching unavailable, M. Brau unavailable, J. Markelo unavailable, O. Dovin unavailable, J. Eccles injured, K. Kesler-Hayden doubtful

Our call: 43% TOT · 27% draw · 30% COV · bookmakers: 64% / 21% / 15% · expected goals 1.45–1.16

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 14:16 · checked today at 10:57

Played

Nottingham Forest 0–1 Arsenal

Sunday 18th October 2026 (Kick Off: 16:30) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

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Arsenal win

0–1Full time

Confidence: Strong

The key stat: Elo performance. No other measure separates them as clearly. Arsenal lead it, Exceptional to Average. the better-rated side normally comes out on top here – 75% of the time in recent seasons. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

The callArsenal to win: 63% against 16%, with the draw at 21%. Confidence strong.
WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and the defence in front of them – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
For ArsenalHome and away form W-W-W-W-L v D-D-L-D-L (decisive); Elo performance 1752 v 1506 (decisive); Possession 57% v 43% (decisive).
For Nottingham ForestNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
FormNottingham Forest D-D-W-L-L, Arsenal W-W-W-L-W.

Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1 confirmedArsenal 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

Arsenal 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

M. Sels
Murillo
O. Diomande
Jair Cunha
N. Williams
N. Domínguez
X. Schlager
D. Muñoz
D. Ndoye
J. McAtee
L. Delap

David Raya
R. Calafiori
Gabriel Magalhães
E. Konsa
B. White
Bruno Guimarães
D. Rice
E. Eze
M. Ødegaard
B. Saka
K. Havertz

Substitutes O. Aina, C. Hudson-Odoi, A. Kalimuendo, John Victor, N. Milenković, L. Netz, I. Sangaré, C. Wood, R. Yates

Substitutes M. Dowman, V. Gyökeres, M. Lewis-Skelly, N. Madueke, Mikel Merino, I. Meslier, Cristhian Mosquera, J. Timber, Martín Zubimendi

Our call: 16% NFO · 21% draw · 63% ARS · bookmakers: 17% / 25% / 59% · expected goals 0.89–2.01

Last updated 18 Oct at 15:46

Bournemouth 2–0 Sunderland

Sunday 18th October 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

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Bournemouth win

2–0Full time

Confidence: Fair

The key stat: Attack. This is the widest gap between them. Sunderland lead it, 1.65 to 1.40. In matches like this, the side scoring more freely usually wins – about 72% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

Against the call – Sunderland come out ahead on it, and Bournemouth are favoured anyway – on the strength of the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target.

The callBournemouth to win: 55% against 21%, with the draw at 24%. Confidence fair.
WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target.
For BournemouthGoals 1.81 v 1.03 (useful); Elo performance 1565 v 1476 (useful); Defence 1.32 v 1.57 (slight).
For SunderlandAttack 1.65 v 1.40 (slight).
FormBournemouth D-D-D-L-L, Sunderland W-D-L-L-L.

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1 confirmedSunderland 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Sunderland 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Đ. Petrović
A. Truffert
António Silva
J. Hill
A. Smith
R. Christie
T. Adams
M. Tavernier
L. Cook
Rayan
Evanilson

R. Roefs
Reinildo Mandava
O. Alderete
K. Danso
N. Mukiele
N. Sadiki
G. Xhaka
C. Rigg
E. Le Fée
T. Hume
T. Tutierov

Substitutes A. Adli, D. Brooks, M. Di Gregorio, B. Diakité, B. Gannon-Doak, J. Kluivert, Á. Rodríguez, J. Soler, Juanlu Sánchez

Substitutes J. Ahoka, R. Angulo, N. Angulo, H. Diarra, M. Ellborg, M. Fofana, D. Méthalie, L. O'Nien, C. Talbi

Our call: 55% BOU · 24% draw · 21% SUN · bookmakers: 46% / 27% / 27% · expected goals 1.81–1.03

Last updated 18 Oct at 13:16

Brighton & Hove Albion 5–0 Crystal Palace

Sunday 18th October 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

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Brighton & Hove Albion win

5–0Full time

Confidence: Fair

The key stat: Defence. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. Brighton & Hove Albion lead it, 1.55 to 2.10. Historically, whoever was harder to score against takes these roughly 73% of the time. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

The callBrighton & Hove Albion to win: 56% against 21%, with the draw at 23%. Confidence fair.
WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target.
For Brighton & Hove AlbionPossession 61% v 39% (decisive); Goal difference at this venue 1.40 v -0.80 (decisive); Goal difference 1.80 v -0.20 (decisive).
For Crystal PalaceGK save rate 72% v 69% (slight).
FormBrighton & Hove Albion L-D-W-W-W, Crystal Palace L-W-L-D-W.

Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1 confirmedCrystal Palace 3-4-2-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

B. Verbruggen
O. Boscagli
L. Dunk
L. Vušković
F. Kadıoğlu
Chema Andrés
P. Groß
M. De Cuyper
Y. Ayari
D. Gómez
C. Kostoulas

W. Benítez
H. Ahanor
C. Richards
J. Canvot
T. Mitchell
Q. Timber
A. Wharton
A. Khalaili
Yéremy Pino
D. Kamada
J. Strand Larsen

Substitutes J. Hadjam, J. Hinshelwood, Costinha, M. O'Riley, I. Osman, G. Rutter, J. Steele, M. Svoboda, M. Yalcouyé

Substitutes W. Hughes, J. Lerma, J. Mateta, R. Matthews, D. McNeil, Óscar Mingueza, E. Nketiah, D. Osorio, I. Sarr

Our call: 56% BHA · 23% draw · 21% CRY · bookmakers: 61% / 21% / 18% · expected goals 1.94–1.11

Last updated 18 Oct at 13:16

Leeds United 1–1 Manchester United

Sunday 18th October 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

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Manchester United win against the odds

1–1Full time

Confidence: Slight

The key stat: Elo performance. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. It goes to Manchester United: Strong to Average. When this gap appears, the side carrying the stronger record tends to win, in around 72% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

The callManchester United to win: 46% against 28%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and what this eleven creates – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
For Manchester UnitedShots on target 5.4 v 3.9 (clear); XI attacking output 2.72 v 2.03 (useful); Attack 1.80 v 1.38 (useful).
For Leeds UnitedHome and away form W-W-D-W-D v D-W-L-D-D (clear); GK save rate 75% v 69% (clear); Goal difference at this venue 1.20 v 0.20 (useful).
FormLeeds United D-D-W-D-L, Manchester United W-D-L-D-D.
Worth knowingThis call goes against both the ratings and the bookmakers.

Leeds United 3-4-2-1 confirmedManchester United 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Leeds United 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

Manchester United 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

J. Trafford
T. Muharemović
N. Elvedi
J. Justin
G. Gudmundsson
A. Tanaka
E. Ampadu
J. Bogle
N. Okafor
A. Stach
D. Calvert-Lewin

S. Lammens
Diogo Dalot
L. Martínez
H. Maguire
L. Yoro
C. Baleba
Andrey Santos
A. Diallo
Y. Tielemans
Bruno Fernandes
B. Mbeumo

Substitutes B. Aaronson, J. Bahoya, M. Bard, J. Bijol, I. Gruev, S. Longstaff, L. Nmecha, H. Wilson, M. Zetterer

Substitutes H. Amass, K. Darlow, S. Lacey, N. Mazraoui, M. Mount, M. Rashford, Matheus Cunha, J. Zirkzee, M. de Ligt

Our call: 28% LEE · 26% draw · 46% MUN · bookmakers: 40% / 26% / 33% · expected goals 1.16–1.54

Last updated 18 Oct at 13:16

Newcastle United 0–1 Aston Villa

Saturday 17th October 2026 (Kick Off: 17:30) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

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Newcastle United win

0–1Full time

Knife-edge – Newcastle United shade it

The key stat: XI attacking output. No other measure separates them as clearly. Newcastle United lead it, 2.30 to 1.88. the side naming the more potent eleven normally comes out on top here – 71% of the time in recent seasons. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

The callKnife-edge – Newcastle United 43%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 31%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
WhyThe lean to Newcastle United comes from home advantage, a cup tie in the other side's legs and the midweek cup round.
For Newcastle UnitedGoal difference at this venue 1.00 v -0.40 (clear); Home and away form W-W-D-D-W v D-W-L-D-W (useful); XI attacking output 2.30 v 1.88 (useful).
For Aston VillaGK save rate 71% v 65% (clear); Elo performance 1587 v 1539 (slight); Goal difference -0.20 v -0.60 (slight).
FormNewcastle United W-D-L-W-L, Aston Villa L-D-L-W-D.

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1 confirmedAston Villa 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

L. Horníček
L. Hall
S. Botman
M. Thiaw
L. Miley
Joelinton
Nico González
H. Barnes
Y. Wissa
J. Willock
M. Fernandez-Pardo

Z. Suzuki
A. Wan-Bissaka
T. Mings
V. Lindelöf
M. Cash
João Gomes
B. Kamara
J. Manzambi
E. Buendía
Alysson
N. Jackson

Substitutes A. Bamba, D. Burn, A. Dedić, J. Murphy, W. Osula, N. Pope, F. Schär, S. Steur, B. Touré

Substitutes R. Barkley, M. Bizot, L. Bogarde, Pau Torres, L. Goretzka, T. Harwood-Bellis, B. Madjo, I. Mbaye, J. McGinn

Our call: 43% NEW · 26% draw · 31% AVL · bookmakers: 42% / 26% / 32% · expected goals 1.52–1.24

Last updated 17 Oct at 17:20

Brentford 1–2 Liverpool

Saturday 17th October 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

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Liverpool win

1–2Full time

Knife-edge – Liverpool shade it

The key stat: Elo performance. This is the widest gap between them. Liverpool come out on top, Very strong against Strong. In matches like this, the side carrying the stronger record usually wins – about 72% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

The callKnife-edge – Brentford 34%, draw 26%, Liverpool 40%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
WhyThe lean to Liverpool comes from the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and the defence in front of them.
For LiverpoolPossession 55% v 45% (clear); XI defensive record 1.26 v 1.53 (useful); Shots on target 5.1 v 4.0 (useful).
For BrentfordGK save rate 76% v 68% (clear); Goal difference at this venue 1.80 v 0.00 (clear); Home and away form W-D-W-D-W v L-L-D-W-W (useful).
FormBrentford D-D-D-W-D, Liverpool D-W-D-W-L.

Brentford 4-2-3-1 confirmedLiverpool 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Brentford 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Liverpool 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

C. Kelleher
K. Lewis-Potter
S. van den Berg
K. Ajer
M. Kayode
V. Janelt
Y. Yarmoliuk
J. Anthony
M. Jensen
D. Ouattara
Igor Thiago

Alisson Becker
M. Kerkez
V. van Dijk
J. Jacquet
R. Araujo
A. Mac Allister
D. Szoboszlai
B. Barcola
F. Wirtz
Víctor Muñoz
A. Isak

Substitutes N. Collins, E. Diouf, Fábio Carvalho, A. Hickey, M. Damsgaard, M. Sangaré, K. Schade, H. Valdimarsson, C. Wilson

Substitutes W. Endo, J. Frimpong, C. Gakpo, J. Gomez, L. Koumas, G. Mamardashvili, R. Ngumoha, T. Nyoni, K. Tsimikas

Our call: 34% BRE · 26% draw · 40% LIV · bookmakers: 40% / 26% / 34% · expected goals 1.31–1.46

Last updated 17 Oct at 14:09

Fulham 1–0 Hull City

Saturday 17th October 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

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Fulham win

1–0Full time

Confidence: Fair

The key stat: Defence. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. Fulham come out on top, 1.53 against 2.04. Historically, whoever was harder to score against takes these roughly 73% of the time. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

The callFulham to win: 52% against 23%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence fair.
WhyThe call rests on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and recent shots on target.
For FulhamAttack 1.54 v 0.96 (clear); Defence 1.53 v 2.04 (clear); XI attacking output 2.52 v 1.82 (clear).
For Hull CityGK save rate 74% v 69% (useful); Goal difference 0.00 v -0.60 (slight); Home and away form D-L-W-D-L v L-W-L-L-D (marginal).
FormFulham L-L-D-D-L, Hull City W-D-D-L-D.

Fulham 4-2-3-1 confirmedHull City 5-4-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Fulham 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Hull City 5-4-1

Confirmed starting XI

B. Leno
A. Robinson
C. Bassey
D. Affengruber
T. Castagne
S. Charles
S. Berge
A. Iwobi
J. King
O. Bobb
Gonzalo García

K. Tzolakis
L. Herrington
J. Egan
S. Ajayi
B. Norton-Cuffy
L. Coyle
S. Thomas
R. Slater
M. Crooks
M. Belloumi
O. McBurnie

Substitutes J. Andersen, T. Cairney, B. Lecomte, Manuel Ángel, Rodrigo Muniz, César Palacios, Kevin, R. Sessegnon, K. Tete

Substitutes P. McNair, J. Gelhardt, R. Giles, J. Hjertø-Dahl, T. Iroegbunam, H. Morita, D. Phillips, E. Stroud, R. Vaz

Our call: 52% FUL · 25% draw · 23% HUL · bookmakers: 55% / 24% / 21% · expected goals 1.69–1.04

Last updated 17 Oct at 14:09

Manchester City 3–2 Ipswich Town

Saturday 17th October 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

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Manchester City win

3–2Full time

Confidence: Very strong

The key stat: Elo performance. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Manchester City come out on top, Exceptional against Weak. When this gap appears, the side carrying the stronger record tends to win, in around 74% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

The callManchester City to win: 83% against 6%, with the draw at 11%. Confidence very strong.
WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and what this eleven creates – the strongest pull the other way is a cup tie in the other side's legs.
For Manchester CityGoal difference 2.00 v -0.80 (decisive); Goals 3.03 v 0.71 (decisive); Elo performance 1757 v 1390 (decisive).
For Ipswich TownNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
FormManchester City W-W-W-W-W, Ipswich Town L-L-W-L-W.

Manchester City 4-2-3-1 confirmedIpswich Town 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Manchester City 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

G. Donnarumma
N. O'Reilly
M. Guéhi
Rúben Dias
Matheus Nunes
A. Bouaddi
M. Kovačić
J. Doku
P. Foden
I. Ndiaye
E. Haaland

C. Walton
L. Davis
J. Greaves
I. Diop
D. O'Shea
E. Palacios
Florentino
D. Maeda
J. Enciso
A. Ouattara
Emersonn

Substitutes E. Anderson, Allan, R. Aït-Nouri, R. Cherki, E. Fernández, J. Gvardiol, A. Khusanov, G. Rulli, A. Semenyo

Substitutes C. Akpom, J. Clarke, Z. Flemming, D. Furlong, A. Fatawu, C. Kipré, A. Matusiwa, J. Philogene, K. Scherpen

Our call: 83% MCI · 11% draw · 6% IPS · bookmakers: 76% / 15% / 9% · expected goals 3.03–0.71

Last updated 17 Oct at 14:09

Everton 0–2 Chelsea

Saturday 17th October 2026 (Kick Off: 12:30) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

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Everton win

0–2Full time

Knife-edge – Everton shade it

The key stat: Attack. No other measure separates them as clearly. It goes to Everton: 1.50 to 1.20. the more productive attack normally comes out on top here – 73% of the time in recent seasons. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

The callKnife-edge – Everton 41%, draw 26%, Chelsea 32%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
WhyThe lean to Everton comes from home advantage, the defence in front of them and what this eleven creates.
For EvertonHome and away form D-L-W-D-W v D-L-W-L-L (useful); Defence 1.35 v 1.76 (useful); XI defensive record 1.36 v 1.57 (useful).
For ChelseaPossession 57% v 43% (decisive); Elo performance 1570 v 1537 (slight); GK save rate 67% v 66% (marginal).
FormEverton D-D-D-W-D, Chelsea W-L-D-L-W.

Everton 4-2-3-1 confirmedChelsea 3-4-2-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Everton 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Chelsea 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

J. Pickford
V. Mykolenko
J. Branthwaite
J. Tarkowski
A. Maitland-Niles
H. Armstrong
J. Garner
J. Grealish
K. Dewsbury-Hall
M. Röhl
T. Barry

E. Martínez
L. Colwill
M. Lacroix
J. Acheampong
J. Hato
M. Caicedo
J. Henderson
Pedro Neto
M. Rogers
C. Palmer
João Pedro

Substitutes C. Alcaraz, T. Dibling, T. George, B. Graham, H. Hackney, B. Johnson, J. O'Brien, C. Nørgaard, M. Travers

Substitutes Estêvão, V. Barco, W. Fofana, R. Lavia, M. Nicoll-Jazuli, M. Palestra, M. Penders, D. Welbeck, Geovany Quenda

Our call: 41% EVE · 26% draw · 32% CHE · bookmakers: 30% / 26% / 44% · expected goals 1.46–1.27

Last updated 17 Oct at 11:44