Bars grow from the centre towards whichever side is ahead; a full bar is as big a gap as that stat usually produces.
The key stat: Elo performance. This is the widest gap between them. Arsenal lead it, Exceptional to Weak. In matches like this, the side carrying the stronger record usually wins — about 76% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.
The callArsenal to win: 76% against 9%, with the draw at 15%. Confidence very strong.
For ArsenalGoals 2.64 v 0.79 (decisive); Elo performance 1744 v 1430 (decisive); Availability 0.62 v 0.00 (decisive).
For Coventry CityNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
FormArsenal W-W-W-W-W. Coventry City have no Premier League record.
NB Coventry City came up from the Championship, and we hold no Championship results, so their half of this comparison rests on the players rather than on past results. The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.
Bars grow from the centre towards whichever side is ahead; a full bar is as big a gap as that stat usually produces.
The key stat: Shots on target. No other measure separates them as clearly. Manchester United lead it, 5.4 to 2.6. the side testing the goalkeeper more often normally comes out on top here — 73% of the time in recent seasons. The measures below it were chosen the same way.
DoubtsDe Ligt injured, Darlow doubtful, Bayindir unavailable, Heaton injured, Šeško doubtful, Mount doubtful, Fredricson unavailable, Ugarte injured
Manchester United win
Confidence: Strong
Our call: 14% HUL · 19% draw · 67% MUN · expected goals 0.96–2.32
Match Notes:
The callManchester United to win: 67% against 14%, with the draw at 19%. Confidence strong.
For Manchester UnitedGoal difference 1.20 v -2.00 (decisive); Shots on target 5.4 v 2.6 (decisive); Defence 1.38 v 2.94 (decisive).
For Hull CityHome and away form W-W-W-L-L v L-D-W-D-W (marginal).
FormHull City W-D-L-L-L, Manchester United W-W-D-W-W.
NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.
Bars grow from the centre towards whichever side is ahead; a full bar is as big a gap as that stat usually produces.
The key stat: XI attacking output. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Crystal Palace lead it, 2.64 to 2.07. When this gap appears, whoever fielded the greater attacking threat tends to win, in around 73% of cases. Our call goes the other way — Everton are favoured on the strength of goal difference, their home-and-away records and goal difference in this setting. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.
The callEverton to win: 46% against 28%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
For EvertonGoal difference at this venue 0.40 v -1.20 (clear); Shots on target 4.8 v 3.6 (useful); Home and away form W-W-L-D-L v W-L-L-L-D (useful).
For Crystal PalaceXI attacking output 2.64 v 2.07 (useful); Possession 53% v 47% (useful); GK save rate 65% v 62% (slight).
FormEverton L-D-D-L-L, Crystal Palace L-D-L-D-L.
NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.
Bars grow from the centre towards whichever side is ahead; a full bar is as big a gap as that stat usually produces.
The key stat: GK save rate. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. Sunderland lead it, 66% to 58%. Historically, the side with the goalkeeper in better form takes these roughly 66% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.
The callSunderland to win: 47% against 26%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
For SunderlandHome and away form W-W-L-D-W v L-L-L-L-L (decisive); Goal difference at this venue 0.60 v -2.00 (decisive); GK save rate 66% v 58% (clear).
For Ipswich TownNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
FormIpswich Town L-D-L-L-L, Sunderland L-D-D-W-W.
NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.
Bars grow from the centre towards whichever side is ahead; a full bar is as big a gap as that stat usually produces.
The key stat: XI attacking output. This is the widest gap between them. It goes to Leeds United: 2.80 to 2.38. In matches like this, whoever fielded the greater attacking threat usually wins — about 71% of the time. It points the other way to our call, though: we still favour Nottingham Forest, who lead on goal difference, their home-and-away records and goal difference in this setting. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.
The callNottingham Forest to win: 44% against 30%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence slight.
For Nottingham ForestGK save rate 75% v 62% (decisive); Goal difference 1.20 v 0.00 (clear); Goal difference at this venue 0.60 v -0.40 (useful).
For Leeds UnitedPossession 53% v 47% (useful); XI attacking output 2.80 v 2.38 (useful); XI defensive record 1.40 v 1.45 (marginal).
FormNottingham Forest W-W-D-L-D, Leeds United D-W-D-W-L.
NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.
Bars grow from the centre towards whichever side is ahead; a full bar is as big a gap as that stat usually produces.
The key stat: XI defensive record. No other measure separates them as clearly. Tottenham Hotspur lead it, 1.17 to 1.54. the side with the steadier back line normally comes out on top here — 66% of the time in recent seasons. That cuts against our verdict. Brentford are tipped because they lead on goal difference in this setting, expected goals and goalkeeping. The measures below it were chosen the same way.
The callBrentford to win: 45% against 28%, with the draw at 27%. Confidence slight.
For BrentfordElo performance 1552 v 1468 (useful); GK save rate 74% v 70% (useful); Goal difference at this venue 0.60 v 0.00 (slight).
For Tottenham HotspurDefence 0.91 v 1.74 (decisive); XI defensive record 1.17 v 1.54 (clear); Goal difference 0.40 v -0.20 (slight).
FormBrentford L-W-L-D-D, Tottenham Hotspur W-W-D-L-W.
NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.
Bars grow from the centre towards whichever side is ahead; a full bar is as big a gap as that stat usually produces.
The key stat: XI attacking output. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Brighton & Hove Albion lead it, 2.78 to 2.20. When this gap appears, whoever fielded the greater attacking threat tends to win, in around 73% of cases. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.
The callToo close to call — Brighton & Hove Albion 42%, draw 25%, Aston Villa 33%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
For Brighton & Hove AlbionGK save rate 71% v 63% (clear); Home and away form L-W-W-W-L v L-D-L-D-W (useful); XI attacking output 2.78 v 2.20 (useful).
For Aston VillaGoal difference 0.20 v 0.00 (marginal).
FormBrighton & Hove Albion W-L-W-L-L, Aston Villa L-L-D-W-W.
NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.
Bars grow from the centre towards whichever side is ahead; a full bar is as big a gap as that stat usually produces.
The key stat: Shots on target. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. It goes to Manchester City: 6.1 to 3.9. Historically, the side testing the goalkeeper more often takes these roughly 70% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.
The callManchester City to win: 64% against 16%, with the draw at 20%. Confidence strong.
For Manchester CityShots on target 6.1 v 3.9 (decisive); Goals 2.14 v 0.98 (clear); Possession 56% v 44% (clear).
For BournemouthGK save rate 73% v 70% (slight); Home and away form D-W-W-W-D v D-W-W-W-L (marginal).
FormManchester City D-W-W-D-L, Bournemouth D-W-W-D-D.
NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.
Bars grow from the centre towards whichever side is ahead; a full bar is as big a gap as that stat usually produces.
The key stat: XI defensive record. This is the widest gap between them. Liverpool come out on top, 1.40 against 1.51. In matches like this, whoever fielded the more solid defence usually wins — about 74% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.
Our call: 33% NEW · 26% draw · 41% LIV · expected goals 1.31–1.50
Match Notes:
The callToo close to call — Newcastle United 33%, draw 26%, Liverpool 41%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
For LiverpoolPossession 53% v 47% (useful); Elo performance 1635 v 1546 (useful); Shots on target 5.1 v 4.4 (slight).
For Newcastle UnitedHome and away form W-L-L-W-W v L-L-W-L-L (clear); Goal difference at this venue 0.60 v -0.80 (clear); Goal difference 0.20 v -0.20 (slight).
FormNewcastle United L-W-D-W-L, Liverpool W-L-D-L-D.
NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.
Bars grow from the centre towards whichever side is ahead; a full bar is as big a gap as that stat usually produces.
The key stat: XI defensive record. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. It goes to Fulham: 1.22 to 1.40. When this gap appears, whoever fielded the more solid defence tends to win, in around 69% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.
The callToo close to call — Fulham 40%, draw 27%, Chelsea 33%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
For FulhamGK save rate 75% v 64% (decisive); Home and away form L-W-W-L-W v W-L-L-D-L (clear); Goal difference at this venue 0.60 v -0.80 (clear).
For ChelseaXI attacking output 2.47 v 2.20 (slight); Possession 51% v 49% (marginal).
FormFulham W-L-L-D-W, Chelsea L-L-D-W-L.
NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.
Bars grow from the centre towards whichever side is ahead; a full bar is as big a gap as that stat usually produces.
The key stat: Elo performance. No other measure separates them as clearly. It goes to Manchester City: Exceptional to Average. the better-rated side normally comes out on top here — 75% of the time in recent seasons. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.
The callManchester City to win: 58% against 20%, with the draw at 22%. Confidence strong.
For Manchester CityGoal difference 1.00 v -1.40 (decisive); Shots on target 6.1 v 3.6 (decisive); Elo performance 1724 v 1518 (decisive).
For Crystal PalaceNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
FormCrystal Palace L-D-L-D-L, Manchester City D-W-W-D-L.
NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.
Bars grow from the centre towards whichever side is ahead; a full bar is as big a gap as that stat usually produces.
The key stat: Elo performance. This is the widest gap between them. Liverpool come out on top, Very strong against Above average. In matches like this, the side carrying the stronger record usually wins — about 72% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.
NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.
Bars grow from the centre towards whichever side is ahead; a full bar is as big a gap as that stat usually produces.
The key stat: XI defensive record. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. Everton come out on top, 1.44 against 1.45. Historically, the side with the steadier back line takes these roughly 74% of the time. That cuts against our verdict. Bournemouth are tipped because they lead on recent form, goal difference and their home-and-away records. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.
The callBournemouth to win: 45% against 29%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
For BournemouthGK save rate 73% v 62% (decisive); Goal difference 0.80 v -0.80 (clear); Home and away form D-D-D-W-D v L-D-L-D-L (clear).
For EvertonShots on target 4.8 v 3.9 (useful); XI defensive record 1.44 v 1.45 (marginal).
FormBournemouth D-W-W-D-D, Everton L-D-D-L-L.
NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.
Bars grow from the centre towards whichever side is ahead; a full bar is as big a gap as that stat usually produces.
The key stat: XI attacking output. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Coventry City lead it, 2.98 to 1.87. When this gap appears, whoever fielded the greater attacking threat tends to win, in around 73% of cases. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.
The callCoventry City to win: 60% against 19%, with the draw at 21%. Confidence strong.
For Coventry CityXI attacking output 2.98 v 1.87 (decisive); Goals 2.13 v 1.12 (clear); Elo performance 1430 v 1398 (slight).
For Hull CityAvailability 0.46 v 0.00 (clear).
FormHull City W-D-L-L-L. Coventry City have no Premier League record.
NB Coventry City came up from the Championship, and we hold no Championship results, so their half of this comparison rests on the players rather than on past results. The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.
Bars grow from the centre towards whichever side is ahead; a full bar is as big a gap as that stat usually produces.
The key stat: XI defensive record. No other measure separates them as clearly. Tottenham Hotspur come out on top, 1.17 against 1.51. the side with the steadier back line normally comes out on top here — 74% of the time in recent seasons. The measures below it were chosen the same way.
Our call: 37% TOT · 26% draw · 37% NEW · expected goals 1.39–1.41
Match Notes:
The callToo close to call — Tottenham Hotspur 37%, draw 26%, Newcastle United 37%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
For Newcastle UnitedXI attacking output 2.36 v 1.93 (useful); Elo performance 1546 v 1468 (useful); Goal difference at this venue -0.60 v -0.80 (marginal).
For Tottenham HotspurDefence 0.91 v 1.57 (clear); XI defensive record 1.17 v 1.51 (clear); GK save rate 70% v 67% (useful).
FormTottenham Hotspur W-W-D-L-W, Newcastle United L-W-D-W-L.
NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.
Bars grow from the centre towards whichever side is ahead; a full bar is as big a gap as that stat usually produces.
The key stat: GK save rate. This is the widest gap between them. Brighton & Hove Albion come out on top, 71% against 64%. In matches like this, whoever had the more reliable last line usually wins — about 63% of the time. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.
NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.
Bars grow from the centre towards whichever side is ahead; a full bar is as big a gap as that stat usually produces.
The key stat: XI attacking output. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. It goes to Leeds United: 2.80 to 2.22. Historically, the side naming the more potent eleven takes these roughly 71% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.
The callLeeds United to win: 45% against 29%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
For Leeds UnitedHome and away form L-D-W-W-W v D-D-L-L-D (decisive); Goal difference at this venue 1.00 v -0.80 (clear); XI attacking output 2.80 v 2.22 (useful).
For BrentfordGK save rate 74% v 62% (decisive); Elo performance 1552 v 1498 (slight); Possession 50% v 50% (marginal).
FormLeeds United D-W-D-W-L, Brentford L-W-L-D-D.
Worth knowingThis call goes against both the ratings and the bookmakers.
NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.
Bars grow from the centre towards whichever side is ahead; a full bar is as big a gap as that stat usually produces.
The key stat: GK save rate. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. It goes to Fulham: 75% to 66%. When this gap appears, whoever had the more reliable last line tends to win, in around 63% of cases. The measures below it were chosen the same way.
The callToo close to call — Sunderland 38%, draw 27%, Fulham 35%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
For SunderlandHome and away form L-W-L-D-W v D-L-D-L-D (useful); Shots on target 4.0 v 3.6 (slight); Goal difference at this venue -0.80 v -1.00 (marginal).
For FulhamGK save rate 75% v 66% (clear); Possession 53% v 47% (useful); XI defensive record 1.22 v 1.33 (slight).
FormSunderland L-D-D-W-W, Fulham W-L-L-D-W.
NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.
Bars grow from the centre towards whichever side is ahead; a full bar is as big a gap as that stat usually produces.
The key stat: GK save rate. No other measure separates them as clearly. Manchester United lead it, 70% to 58%. the side with the goalkeeper in better form normally comes out on top here — 72% of the time in recent seasons. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.
The callManchester United to win: 70% against 11%, with the draw at 18%. Confidence very strong.
For Manchester UnitedGoal difference 1.20 v -1.60 (decisive); GK save rate 70% v 58% (decisive); Shots on target 5.4 v 2.7 (decisive).
For Ipswich TownNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
FormManchester United W-W-D-W-W, Ipswich Town L-D-L-L-L.
NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.
Bars grow from the centre towards whichever side is ahead; a full bar is as big a gap as that stat usually produces.
The key stat: XI attacking output. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Arsenal come out on top, 3.02 against 2.20. When this gap appears, whoever fielded the greater attacking threat tends to win, in around 73% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.
The callArsenal to win: 46% against 29%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence slight.
For ArsenalGK save rate 76% v 63% (decisive); XI defensive record 1.05 v 1.38 (clear); XI attacking output 3.02 v 2.20 (clear).
For Aston VillaPossession 50% v 50% (marginal).
FormAston Villa L-L-D-W-W, Arsenal W-W-W-W-W.
NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.
