Which Team Will Win?

Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest

Saturday 29th August 2026 (Kick Off: 12:30) · Gameweek 2

whichteamwillwin.com

Liverpool win

◀ Liverpool win Forest win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 23%

Confidence: Fair

More statsLess
Liverpool crest
LIV NFO W-L-D-L-D W-W-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) -0.20 1.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) D-W-W-D-D D-W-W-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.80 1.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 57% 43% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.88 1.12 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Very strong 1635 Above average 1527 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.40 1.45 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 5.1 4.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game 67% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.44 1.61 Defence Conceded per game
Nottingham Forest crest

The key stat: Elo performance. This is the widest gap between them. Liverpool come out on top, Very strong against Above average. In matches like this, the side carrying the stronger record usually wins — about 72% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callLiverpool to win: 55% against 22%, with the draw at 23%. Confidence fair.
  • For LiverpoolPossession 57% v 43% (decisive); Goals 1.88 v 1.12 (useful); Elo performance 1635 v 1527 (useful).
  • For Nottingham ForestGK save rate 75% v 67% (clear); Goal difference 1.20 v -0.20 (clear); Goal difference at this venue 1.80 v 0.80 (useful).
  • FormLiverpool W-L-D-L-D, Nottingham Forest W-W-D-L-D.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Liverpool 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Nottingham Forest 4-4-2

Expected starting XI

  1. A.Becker98%
  2. Virgil98%
  3. Tsimikas94%
  4. Kerkez43%
  5. Frimpong42%
  6. Szoboszlai98%
  7. Mac Allister98%
  8. Gakpo98%
  9. Gravenberch79%
  10. C.Jones75%
  11. Isak42%
  1. Sels98%
  2. Aina98%
  3. Murillo97%
  4. Milenković83%
  5. N.Williams83%
  6. Gibbs-White81%
  7. I.Sangaré77%
  8. Hudson-Odoi76%
  9. Hutchinson59%
  10. Igor Jesus94%
  11. Wood59%

Likely subs Mamardashvili, Woodman, Wirtz, Ngumoha, Endo, Elliott, Chiesa

Likely subs John, Morato, Jair Cunha, Netz, Dominguez, Bakwa, Abbott

Doubts C.Jones doubtful, Bradley injured, Ekitiké injured, Bajcetic injured, Gomez injured, Danns injured, Jaros injured, Pecsi unavailable

Doubts Savona injured, Yates injured

Our call: 55% LIV · 23% draw · 22% NFO  ·  expected goals 1.88–1.12

Last updated 19 Aug at 12:28

What separates them

Every stat weighed against its opposite number, singly and in combination. Of the comparisons that have reliably told winners from losers in the past — scored only on matches played before this one — these are the ones these two sides are furthest apart on.

ComparisonFavoursSide ahead wonIn past matchesMatches
Form at this venue & team strength LIV 72% 840
Defence from this XI & team strength LIV 74% 809
Shots on target & keeper faced LIV 70% 1,193
Defence faced & keeper faced LIV 69% 1,193
Attack from this XI & form at this venue NFO 71% 1,192

Conviction score: 0.33 towards LIV.

Most likely scorelines

NFO goals → 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 LIV goals → Most likely: 1–1 (10.8%)

The model turns each side's features into an expected-goals figure, then works out the probability of every scoreline. Adding up the cells above, on and below the diagonal gives the win, draw and loss percentages. Full method →