Which Team Will Win?

Everton

Where we have Everton finishing, the matches they have next, and every call we have made about them this season – frozen at kick-off, right or wrong.

Projected league position, week by week

If the season plays out as the model expects, Everton finish 11th on 52 points.

1st 4th 10th 17th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 4th EVE · 3 pts9th LEE · 3 pts10th LIV · 1 pts11th NEW · 1 pts20th AVL · 0 pts GW 2 6th NEW · 4 pts7th EVE · 4 pts8th LEE · 4 pts13th LIV · 2 pts19th AVL · 0 pts GW 3 6th LIV · 5 pts7th NEW · 5 pts8th EVE · 5 pts9th LEE · 5 pts17th AVL · 1 pts GW 4 3rd LEE · 8 pts8th LIV · 6 pts9th EVE · 6 pts12th NEW · 5 pts19th AVL · 1 pts GW 5 5th LEE · 9 pts6th LIV · 9 pts7th EVE · 9 pts9th NEW · 8 pts16th AVL · 4 pts GW 6 5th EVE · 10 pts7th LEE · 9 pts9th LIV · 9 pts11th NEW · 8 pts16th AVL · 5 pts GW 7 5th LIV · 12 pts7th LEE · 10 pts8th EVE · 10 pts11th NEW · 8 pts12th AVL · 8 pts GW 8 · projected 5th LIV · 15 pts7th NEW · 11 pts8th LEE · 10 pts10th EVE · 10 pts15th AVL · 8 pts GW 9 · projected 6th LIV · 15 pts7th NEW · 14 pts9th AVL · 11 pts10th LEE · 10 pts12th EVE · 10 pts GW 10 · projected 5th LIV · 18 pts7th NEW · 14 pts8th LEE · 13 pts10th EVE · 13 pts14th AVL · 11 pts GW 11 · projected 5th LIV · 21 pts8th AVL · 14 pts9th NEW · 14 pts10th LEE · 13 pts11th EVE · 13 pts GW 12 · projected 5th LIV · 24 pts8th AVL · 17 pts9th LEE · 16 pts11th NEW · 14 pts12th EVE · 13 pts GW 13 · projected 4th LIV · 27 pts7th AVL · 20 pts10th LEE · 16 pts12th NEW · 14 pts13th EVE · 13 pts GW 14 · projected 4th LIV · 30 pts7th AVL · 23 pts10th LEE · 19 pts11th NEW · 17 pts12th EVE · 16 pts GW 15 · projected 3rd LIV · 33 pts6th AVL · 26 pts9th NEW · 20 pts11th LEE · 19 pts13th EVE · 16 pts GW 16 · projected 3rd LIV · 36 pts7th AVL · 26 pts10th LEE · 22 pts11th NEW · 20 pts14th EVE · 16 pts GW 17 · projected 3rd LIV · 39 pts7th AVL · 29 pts10th LEE · 22 pts11th NEW · 20 pts12th EVE · 19 pts GW 18 · projected 3rd LIV · 42 pts8th AVL · 29 pts10th LEE · 25 pts11th NEW · 23 pts12th EVE · 19 pts GW 19 · projected 3rd LIV · 45 pts9th AVL · 29 pts10th LEE · 28 pts11th NEW · 23 pts13th EVE · 19 pts GW 20 · projected 3rd LIV · 48 pts9th AVL · 29 pts10th LEE · 28 pts11th NEW · 23 pts12th EVE · 22 pts GW 21 · projected 3rd LIV · 51 pts8th AVL · 32 pts10th LEE · 28 pts11th NEW · 26 pts12th EVE · 25 pts GW 22 · projected 4th LIV · 51 pts8th AVL · 35 pts10th LEE · 28 pts11th EVE · 28 pts12th NEW · 26 pts GW 23 · projected 4th LIV · 54 pts8th AVL · 38 pts10th LEE · 31 pts11th EVE · 28 pts12th NEW · 26 pts GW 24 · projected 5th LIV · 54 pts8th AVL · 41 pts10th LEE · 31 pts11th EVE · 31 pts12th NEW · 26 pts GW 25 · projected 3rd LIV · 57 pts8th AVL · 44 pts10th EVE · 34 pts11th LEE · 31 pts12th NEW · 29 pts GW 26 · projected 3rd LIV · 60 pts8th AVL · 47 pts10th EVE · 37 pts11th LEE · 31 pts12th NEW · 29 pts GW 27 · projected 3rd LIV · 63 pts7th AVL · 50 pts9th EVE · 40 pts11th NEW · 32 pts12th LEE · 31 pts GW 28 · projected 3rd LIV · 66 pts8th AVL · 50 pts10th EVE · 40 pts11th LEE · 34 pts12th NEW · 32 pts GW 29 · projected 3rd LIV · 69 pts8th AVL · 53 pts10th EVE · 40 pts11th LEE · 34 pts12th NEW · 32 pts GW 30 · projected 3rd LIV · 72 pts7th AVL · 56 pts10th EVE · 43 pts11th NEW · 35 pts12th LEE · 34 pts GW 31 · projected 3rd LIV · 75 pts7th AVL · 59 pts10th EVE · 46 pts11th LEE · 37 pts12th NEW · 35 pts GW 32 · projected 3rd LIV · 78 pts8th AVL · 59 pts10th EVE · 46 pts11th NEW · 38 pts12th LEE · 37 pts GW 33 · projected 3rd LIV · 81 pts8th AVL · 62 pts10th EVE · 46 pts11th NEW · 41 pts12th LEE · 37 pts GW 34 · projected 3rd LIV · 84 pts8th AVL · 65 pts10th EVE · 46 pts11th NEW · 44 pts12th LEE · 40 pts GW 35 · projected 3rd LIV · 84 pts8th AVL · 65 pts10th EVE · 49 pts11th NEW · 47 pts12th LEE · 40 pts GW 36 · projected 3rd LIV · 87 pts8th AVL · 68 pts10th EVE · 49 pts11th NEW · 47 pts13th LEE · 40 pts GW 37 · projected 4th LIV · 87 pts8th AVL · 68 pts10th NEW · 50 pts11th EVE · 49 pts13th LEE · 43 pts GW 38 · projected 3rd LIV · 90 pts8th AVL · 71 pts10th NEW · 53 pts11th EVE · 52 pts13th LEE · 43 pts
Everton Leeds United mid-tableNewcastle United mid-tableAston Villa mid-tableLiverpool derby
Everton solid to the last match played, dashed for the forecast. Rivals are dotted throughout, with a dot on their last match played. The white lines are the ones a season is played against – the title, the Champions League places, Europe, and the drop.

Real results so far plus a called outcome for every match still to play, recalculated as results come in. Drawn beside them are the clubs they are actually racing: their usual rivals, and whoever this season has put them in the same fight with. Point at any gameweek for every club's position and points.

Against pre-season expectations

They are 2 places behind our projection.

1st 10th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 Actual 4thProjected 4th GW 2 · 1 place behind Projected 6thActual 7th GW 3 · 1 place ahead Actual 8thProjected 9th GW 4 · 1 place behind Projected 8thActual 9th GW 5 · 1 place behind Projected 6thActual 7th GW 6 · 1 place ahead Actual 5thProjected 6th GW 7 · 2 places behind Projected 6thActual 8th GW 8 Projected 8th GW 9 Projected 7th GW 10 Projected 6th GW 11 Projected 7th GW 12 Projected 7th GW 13 Projected 8th GW 14 Projected 8th GW 15 Projected 8th GW 16 Projected 8th GW 17 Projected 8th GW 18 Projected 8th GW 19 Projected 9th GW 20 Projected 9th GW 21 Projected 9th GW 22 Projected 9th GW 23 Projected 9th GW 24 Projected 9th GW 25 Projected 8th GW 26 Projected 9th GW 27 Projected 8th GW 28 Projected 9th GW 29 Projected 9th GW 30 Projected 9th GW 31 Projected 9th GW 32 Projected 9th GW 33 Projected 9th GW 34 Projected 9th GW 35 Projected 8th GW 36 Projected 8th GW 37 Projected 8th GW 38 Projected 8th

Where Everton actually are, week by week, against where the pre-season projection had them – shaded green while they run ahead of it, red while they run behind. Point at any gameweek for both figures.

Next up

Everton 0–2 Chelsea

Saturday 17th October 2026 (Kick Off: 12:30) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

whichteamwillwin.com
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Everton win

0–2Full time

Everton crest
◀ Everton win Chelsea win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Chelsea crest

Knife-edge – Everton shade it

EVE CHE D-D-D-W-D W-L-D-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-L-W-D-W D-L-W-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.20 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 43% 57% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.46 1.27 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.50 1.20 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.35 1.76 Defence Conceded per game 1.36 1.57 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 66% 67% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Above average 1537 Strong 1570 Elo performance 1500 is average 2.25 2.09 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven EVE CHE D-D-D-W-D W-L-D-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-L-W-D-W D-L-W-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.20 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 43% 57% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.46 1.27 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.50 1.20 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.35 1.76 Defence Conceded per game 1.36 1.57 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 66% 67% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Above average 1537 Strong 1570 Elo performance 1500 is average 2.25 2.09 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven

The key stat: Attack. No other measure separates them as clearly. It goes to Everton: 1.50 to 1.20. the more productive attack normally comes out on top here – 73% of the time in recent seasons. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callKnife-edge – Everton 41%, draw 26%, Chelsea 32%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Everton comes from home advantage, the defence in front of them and what this eleven creates.
  • For EvertonHome and away form D-L-W-D-W v D-L-W-L-L (useful); Defence 1.35 v 1.76 (useful); XI defensive record 1.36 v 1.57 (useful).
  • For ChelseaPossession 57% v 43% (decisive); Elo performance 1570 v 1537 (slight); GK save rate 67% v 66% (marginal).
  • FormEverton D-D-D-W-D, Chelsea W-L-D-L-W.
Everton 4-2-3-1 confirmedChelsea 3-4-2-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Everton 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Chelsea 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 J. Pickford 16 V. Mykolenko 4 Branthwaite 6 J. Tarkowski 2 Maitland-Niles 45 H. Armstrong 37 J. Garner 10 J. Grealish 8 Dewsbury-Hall 34 M. Röhl 11 T. Barry
1 E. Martínez 6 L. Colwill 5 M. Lacroix 34 J. Acheampong 21 J. Hato 25 M. Caicedo 14 J. Henderson 7 Pedro Neto 17 M. Rogers 10 C. Palmer 9 João Pedro
  1. J. Pickford
  2. V. Mykolenko
  3. J. Branthwaite
  4. J. Tarkowski
  5. A. Maitland-Niles
  6. H. Armstrong
  7. J. Garner
  8. J. Grealish
  9. K. Dewsbury-Hall
  10. M. Röhl
  11. T. Barry
  1. E. Martínez
  2. L. Colwill
  3. M. Lacroix
  4. J. Acheampong
  5. J. Hato
  6. M. Caicedo
  7. J. Henderson
  8. Pedro Neto
  9. M. Rogers
  10. C. Palmer
  11. João Pedro

Substitutes C. Alcaraz, T. Dibling, T. George, B. Graham, H. Hackney, B. Johnson, J. O'Brien, C. Nørgaard, M. Travers

Substitutes Estêvão, V. Barco, W. Fofana, R. Lavia, M. Nicoll-Jazuli, M. Palestra, M. Penders, D. Welbeck, Geovany Quenda

Our call: 41% EVE · 26% draw · 32% CHE  ·  bookmakers: 30% / 26% / 44%  ·  expected goals 1.46–1.27

Last updated 17 Oct at 11:44

Arsenal vs. Everton

Saturday 24th October 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 8

whichteamwillwin.com

Arsenal win

Arsenal crest
◀ Arsenal win Everton win ▶ 19% draw chance bookmakers
Everton crest

Confidence: Very strong

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ARS EVE W-W-L-W-W D-D-W-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-W-W-W D-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.80 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 57% 43% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 2.18 0.83 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1757 Above average 1526 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 0.95 1.36 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 0.71 1.45 Defence Conceded per game 2.81 2.27 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 75% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ARS EVE W-W-L-W-W D-D-W-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-W-W-W D-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.80 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 57% 43% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 2.18 0.83 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1757 Above average 1526 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 0.95 1.36 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 0.71 1.45 Defence Conceded per game 2.81 2.27 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 75% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved

The key stat: Elo performance. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. It goes to Arsenal: Exceptional to Above average. When this gap appears, the side carrying the stronger record tends to win, in around 75% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callArsenal to win: 68% against 13%, with the draw at 19%. Confidence very strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and the defence in front of them – the strongest pull the other way is a cup tie in the other side's legs.
  • For ArsenalHome and away form W-W-W-W-W v D-L-D-D-D (decisive); Elo performance 1757 v 1526 (decisive); Goals 2.18 v 0.83 (decisive).
  • For EvertonNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormArsenal W-W-L-W-W, Everton D-D-W-D-L.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Arsenal 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailableEverton 4-2-3-1 expected · 3 unavailable Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Arsenal 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Everton 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 Raya 6 Gabriel 15 Konsa 33 R. Calafiori 4 B. White 7 B. Saka 41 D. Rice 8 M. Ødegaard 49 Lewis-Skelly 39 Bruno G. 29 K. Havertz
1 J. Pickford 6 J. Tarkowski 4 Branthwaite 16 V. Mykolenko 2 Maitland-Niles 8 K. Dewsbury-Hall 37 J. Garner 45 H. Armstrong 22 B. Johnson 10 J. Grealish 11 T. Barry
  1. Raya98%
  2. Gabriel98%
  3. Konsa98%
  4. R. Calafiori97%
  5. B. White71%
  6. B. Saka98%
  7. D. Rice98%
  8. M. Ødegaard97%
  9. M. Lewis-Skelly51%
  10. Bruno G.41%
  11. K. Havertz94%
  1. J. Pickford98%
  2. J. Tarkowski98%
  3. J. Branthwaite98%
  4. V. Mykolenko80%
  5. A. Maitland-Niles75%
  6. K. Dewsbury-Hall98%
  7. J. Garner98%
  8. H. Armstrong98%
  9. B. Johnson72%
  10. J. Grealish62%
  11. T. Barry98%

Likely subs J.Timber, V. Gyökeres, N. Madueke, Merino, M. Dowman, C. Mosquera, Zubimendi

Likely subs T. George, M. Röhl, M. Travers, H. Hackney, T. Dibling, Alcaraz, C. Nørgaard

Doubts C. Tzolis injured, Hincapie injured, Martinelli unavailable, W. Saliba injured, G.Jesus unavailable, Fábio Vieira unavailable, R. Nelson unavailable, E. Nwaneri unavailable

Doubts A. Aznou unavailable, Beto unavailable, N. Patterson unavailable

Our call: 68% ARS · 19% draw · 13% EVE  ·  bookmakers: 68% / 21% / 12%  ·  expected goals 2.18–0.83

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Newcastle United vs. Everton

Monday 2nd November 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 9

whichteamwillwin.com

Newcastle United win

Newcastle United crest
◀ Newcastle win Everton win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers
Everton crest

Knife-edge – Newcastle United shade it

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NEW EVE D-L-W-L-L D-D-W-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches -1.20 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-D-W-L D-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 54% 46% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.59 1.31 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.55 1.36 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 65% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.34 2.27 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.01 1.19 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 4.3 4.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game NEW EVE D-L-W-L-L D-D-W-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches -1.20 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-D-W-L D-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 54% 46% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.59 1.31 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.55 1.36 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 65% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.34 2.27 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.01 1.19 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 4.3 4.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: XI defensive record. No other measure separates them as clearly. Everton lead it, 1.36 to 1.55. the side with the steadier back line normally comes out on top here – 69% of the time in recent seasons. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

Against the call – it favours Everton; the fine margin sits with Newcastle United, who edge home advantage.

  • The callKnife-edge – Newcastle United 44%, draw 25%, Everton 31%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Newcastle United comes from home advantage.
  • For Newcastle UnitedPossession 54% v 46% (useful); Home and away form W-D-D-W-L v D-L-D-D-D (useful); Goal difference at this venue 0.40 v -0.20 (slight).
  • For EvertonGoal difference -0.20 v -1.20 (useful); XI defensive record 1.36 v 1.55 (useful); GK save rate 69% v 65% (useful).
  • FormNewcastle United D-L-W-L-L, Everton D-D-W-D-L.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailableEverton 4-2-3-1 expected · 3 unavailable Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Everton 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

21 Horníček 3 L. Hall 12 M. Thiaw 4 S. Botman 11 H. Barnes 67 L.Miley 28 J. Willock 6 N.Gonzalez 23 J.Murphy 9 Y. Wissa 20 M. Fernandez-Pardo
1 J. Pickford 6 J. Tarkowski 4 Branthwaite 16 V. Mykolenko 2 Maitland-Niles 8 K. Dewsbury-Hall 37 J. Garner 45 H. Armstrong 22 B. Johnson 10 J. Grealish 11 T. Barry
  1. Horníček98%
  2. L. Hall98%
  3. M. Thiaw98%
  4. S. Botman98%
  5. H. Barnes98%
  6. L.Miley94%
  7. J. Willock74%
  8. N.Gonzalez72%
  9. J.Murphy55%
  10. Y. Wissa98%
  11. M. Fernandez-Pardo75%
  1. J. Pickford98%
  2. J. Tarkowski98%
  3. J. Branthwaite98%
  4. V. Mykolenko80%
  5. A. Maitland-Niles75%
  6. K. Dewsbury-Hall98%
  7. J. Garner98%
  8. H. Armstrong98%
  9. B. Johnson72%
  10. J. Grealish62%
  11. T. Barry98%

Likely subs Dedić, S. Steur, W. Osula, B. Touré, N. Pope, F. Schär, D. Burn

Likely subs T. George, M. Röhl, M. Travers, H. Hackney, T. Dibling, Alcaraz, C. Nørgaard

Doubts A. Elanga injured, S. Neave unavailable, E. Jaouen injured, L. Shahar unavailable, T. Livramento injured, J.Ramsey injured, N. Woltemade unavailable, A.Murphy unavailable

Doubts A. Aznou unavailable, Beto unavailable, N. Patterson unavailable

Our call: 43% NEW · 25% draw · 31% EVE  ·  bookmakers: 44% / 26% / 31%  ·  expected goals 1.59–1.31

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 16:17 · checked today at 10:57

Everton vs. Coventry City

Friday 6th November 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 10

whichteamwillwin.com

Everton win

Everton crest
◀ Everton win Coventry win ▶ 22% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Coventry City crest

Confidence: Strong

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EVE COV D-D-W-D-L L-L-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.20 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-D-W-L L-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.93 0.93 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.36 1.54 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Above average 1526 Weak 1433 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.45 1.76 Defence Conceded per game 69% 61% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.6 3.7 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.19 1.10 Attack Goals and expected goals per game EVE COV D-D-W-D-L L-L-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.20 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-D-W-L L-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.93 0.93 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.36 1.54 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Above average 1526 Weak 1433 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.45 1.76 Defence Conceded per game 69% 61% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.6 3.7 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.19 1.10 Attack Goals and expected goals per game

The key stat: XI defensive record. No other measure separates them as clearly. Everton come out on top, 1.36 against 1.54. the side with the steadier back line normally comes out on top here – 74% of the time in recent seasons. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callEverton to win: 61% against 17%, with the draw at 22%. Confidence strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target.
  • For EvertonGK save rate 69% v 61% (clear); Goals 1.93 v 0.93 (clear); Home and away form L-W-D-W-L v L-L-W (useful).
  • For Coventry CityNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormEverton D-D-W-D-L, Coventry City L-L-L-W-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Everton 4-2-3-1 expected · 3 unavailableCoventry City 3-4-2-1 expected · 11 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Everton 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Coventry City 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

1 J. Pickford 6 J. Tarkowski 4 Branthwaite 16 V. Mykolenko 2 Maitland-Niles 8 K. Dewsbury-Hall 37 J. Garner 45 H. Armstrong 22 B. Johnson 10 J. Grealish 11 T. Barry
19 C. Rushworth 4 B. Thomas 3 J. Dasilva 2 E. Pinnock 27 M. van Ewijk 21 J. Bidwell 6 M. Grimes 5 J. Rudoni 10 E. Mason-Clark 8 C. Yirenkyi 14 T. Awoniyi
  1. J. Pickford98%
  2. J. Tarkowski98%
  3. J. Branthwaite98%
  4. V. Mykolenko80%
  5. A. Maitland-Niles75%
  6. K. Dewsbury-Hall98%
  7. J. Garner98%
  8. H. Armstrong98%
  9. B. Johnson72%
  10. J. Grealish62%
  11. T. Barry98%
  1. C. Rushworth98%
  2. B. Thomas98%
  3. J. Dasilva98%
  4. E. Pinnock81%
  5. M. van Ewijk80%
  6. J. BidwellNEW40%
  7. M. Grimes98%
  8. J. Rudoni92%
  9. E. Mason-Clark86%
  10. C. Yirenkyi61%
  11. T. Awoniyi55%

Likely subs T. George, M. Röhl, M. Travers, H. Hackney, T. Dibling, Alcaraz, C. Nørgaard

Likely subs Y. Gboho, F. Onyeka, B. Thomas-Asante, B. Wilson, V. Torp, G. Hamer, E. Simms

Doubts A. Aznou unavailable, Beto unavailable, N. Patterson unavailable

Doubts A. Amenda injured, H. Wright injured, L. Kitching unavailable, M. Brau unavailable, J. Markelo unavailable, O. Dovin unavailable, J. Eccles injured, K. Kesler-Hayden doubtful

Our call: 61% EVE · 22% draw · 17% COV  ·  expected goals 1.93–0.93

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 16:17 · checked today at 10:57

Brentford vs. Everton

Monday 23rd November 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 11

whichteamwillwin.com

Brentford win

Brentford crest
◀ Brentford win Everton win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Everton crest

Knife-edge – Brentford shade it

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BRE EVE D-D-W-D-L D-D-W-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-D-W-L D-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.00 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.53 1.25 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.77 2.27 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 74% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.78 1.45 Defence Conceded per game 3.8 4.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.55 1.19 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Above average 1559 Above average 1526 Elo performance 1500 is average BRE EVE D-D-W-D-L D-D-W-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-D-W-L D-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.00 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.53 1.25 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.77 2.27 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 74% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.78 1.45 Defence Conceded per game 3.8 4.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.55 1.19 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Above average 1559 Above average 1526 Elo performance 1500 is average

The key stat: XI attacking output. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. It goes to Brentford: 2.77 to 2.27. Historically, the side naming the more potent eleven takes these roughly 72% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callKnife-edge – Brentford 43%, draw 26%, Everton 31%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Brentford comes from home advantage, the long-run strength gap and what this eleven creates.
  • For BrentfordGoal difference at this venue 1.00 v -0.20 (useful); Home and away form D-W-D-W-L v D-L-D-D-D (useful); GK save rate 74% v 69% (useful).
  • For EvertonDefence 1.45 v 1.78 (useful); Shots on target 4.6 v 3.8 (useful).
  • FormBrentford D-D-W-D-L, Everton D-D-W-D-L.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Brentford 4-2-3-1 expected · 5 unavailable · 1 doubtfulEverton 4-2-3-1 expected · 3 unavailable Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Brentford 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Everton 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 C. Kelleher 20 K. Ajer 33 M. Kayode 44 J. Schuster 23 Lewis-Potter 7 K. Schade 19 J. Anthony 18 M.Sangaré 24 M. Damsgaard 11 O.Dango 9 Thiago
1 J. Pickford 6 J. Tarkowski 4 Branthwaite 16 V. Mykolenko 2 Maitland-Niles 8 K. Dewsbury-Hall 37 J. Garner 45 H. Armstrong 22 B. Johnson 10 J. Grealish 11 T. Barry
  1. C. Kelleher98%
  2. K. Ajer98%
  3. M. Kayode76%
  4. J. Schuster47%
  5. K. Lewis-Potter93%
  6. K. Schade81%
  7. J. Anthony79%
  8. M.Sangaré45%
  9. M. Damsgaard43%
  10. O.Dango38%
  11. Thiago98%
  1. J. Pickford98%
  2. J. Tarkowski98%
  3. J. Branthwaite98%
  4. V. Mykolenko80%
  5. A. Maitland-Niles75%
  6. K. Dewsbury-Hall98%
  7. J. Garner98%
  8. H. Armstrong98%
  9. B. Johnson72%
  10. J. Grealish62%
  11. T. Barry98%

Likely subs A. Hickey, N. Collins, C. Wilson, F. Carvalho, E. Diouf, H. Valdimarsson, S. Van den Berg

Likely subs T. George, M. Röhl, M. Travers, H. Hackney, T. Dibling, Alcaraz, C. Nørgaard

Doubts V. Janelt suspended, Y. Yarmoliuk suspended, J. Schuster doubtful, A. Milambo injured, K. Furo injured, J. Dasilva injured

Doubts A. Aznou unavailable, Beto unavailable, N. Patterson unavailable

Our call: 43% BRE · 26% draw · 31% EVE  ·  expected goals 1.53–1.25

Unchanged since 17 Oct at 20:00 · checked today at 10:57

The whole season

All 38 of Everton's league matches, what we said would happen, and – where it has been played – what actually did. We have called 2 of 3 of their decided matches so far; 4 were draws, which nobody scores. Rows marked projected are today's model looking ahead: they move every time the season is re-projected, so they are not frozen and are never graded. Everything else is the call we published before kick-off.

GWKick-offOpponentWinDrawLoseOur callResultCalled it?
1 Sat 22 Aug, 15:00 Crystal Palace (H) 50% 24% 26% WinConfidence: Fair 2–0
2 Sat 29 Aug, 15:00 Bournemouth (A) 28% 25% 47% LoseConfidence: Slight 1–1
3 Sun 6 Sept, 14:00 Manchester United (H) 32% 25% 44% LoseConfidence: Knife-edge 2–2
4 Sat 12 Sept, 17:30 Tottenham Hotspur (A) 40% 27% 34% WinConfidence: Knife-edge 0–0
5 Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 Ipswich Town (H) 62% 22% 16% WinConfidence: Strong 1–0
6 Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 Hull City (A) 46% 26% 28% WinConfidence: Slight 2–2
7 Sat 17 Oct, 12:30 Chelsea (H) 41% 26% 32% WinConfidence: Knife-edge 0–2
8 Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 Arsenal (A) 13% 19% 68% LoseConfidence: Very strong –
9 Mon 2 Nov, 20:00 Newcastle United (A) 31% 25% 43% LoseConfidence: Knife-edge –
10 Fri 6 Nov, 20:00 Coventry City (H) 61% 22% 17% WinConfidence: Strong –
11 Mon 23 Nov, 20:00 Brentford (A) 31% 26% 43% LoseConfidence: Knife-edge –
12 Sun 29 Nov, 12:00 Liverpool (H) 31% 26% 43% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
13 Wed 2 Dec, 20:00 Aston Villa (A) 25% 25% 49% LoseProjected: Fair –
14 Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 Fulham (H) 44% 26% 30% WinProjected: Slight –
15 Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 Brighton & Hove Albion (A) 24% 25% 51% LoseProjected: Fair –
16 Sat 19 Dec, 15:00 Nottingham Forest (A) 33% 27% 40% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
17 Sat 26 Dec, 15:00 Sunderland (H) 51% 25% 25% WinProjected: Fair –
18 Tue 29 Dec, 20:15 Manchester City (H) 23% 24% 53% LoseProjected: Fair –
19 Fri 1 Jan, 20:00 Leeds United (A) 35% 27% 38% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
20 Tue 5 Jan, 19:30 Aston Villa (H) 37% 27% 36% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
21 Sat 16 Jan, 15:00 Coventry City (A) 42% 26% 32% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
22 Sat 23 Jan, 15:00 Brentford (H) 43% 26% 31% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
23 Sat 30 Jan, 15:00 Liverpool (A) 20% 23% 57% LoseProjected: Strong –
24 Sat 6 Feb, 15:00 Newcastle United (H) 43% 26% 31% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
25 Wed 10 Feb, 20:00 Leeds United (H) 47% 26% 27% WinProjected: Slight –
26 Sat 20 Feb, 15:00 Sunderland (A) 38% 26% 36% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
27 Sat 27 Feb, 15:00 Nottingham Forest (H) 46% 26% 28% WinProjected: Slight –
28 Wed 3 Mar, 20:00 Manchester City (A) 14% 20% 66% LoseProjected: Strong –
29 Sat 13 Mar, 15:00 Manchester United (A) 23% 24% 53% LoseProjected: Fair –
30 Sat 20 Mar, 15:00 Tottenham Hotspur (H) 52% 25% 23% WinProjected: Fair –
31 Sat 10 Apr, 15:00 Crystal Palace (A) 38% 26% 35% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
32 Sat 17 Apr, 15:00 Bournemouth (H) 36% 27% 37% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
33 Sat 24 Apr, 15:00 Brighton & Hove Albion (H) 35% 27% 38% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
34 Sat 1 May, 15:00 Fulham (A) 32% 27% 41% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
35 Sat 8 May, 15:00 Hull City (H) 58% 23% 19% WinProjected: Strong –
36 Sat 15 May, 15:00 Chelsea (A) 27% 25% 48% LoseProjected: Slight –
37 Sun 23 May, 15:00 Arsenal (H) 20% 24% 56% LoseProjected: Fair –
38 Sun 30 May, 16:00 Ipswich Town (A) 47% 25% 28% WinProjected: Slight –

Called the winner Called it wrong Drawn – no winner to call