Which Team Will Win?

Everton

Every published prediction involving Everton, newest first, frozen at kick-off as always.

Projected league position, week by week

If the season plays out as the model expects, Everton finish 10th on about 51 points. Every other club is drawn faintly for context.

1st 4th 10th 17th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 · 5th 2 pts projected GW 2 · 8th 3 pts projected GW 3 · 12th 4 pts projected GW 4 · 9th 5 pts projected GW 5 · 7th 8 pts projected GW 6 · 6th 9 pts projected GW 7 · 6th 11 pts projected GW 8 · 9th 12 pts projected GW 9 · 9th 13 pts projected GW 10 · 7th 15 pts projected GW 11 · 9th 16 pts projected GW 12 · 9th 17 pts projected GW 13 · 9th 18 pts projected GW 14 · 9th 20 pts projected GW 15 · 11th 21 pts projected GW 16 · 11th 22 pts projected GW 17 · 10th 23 pts projected GW 18 · 10th 24 pts projected GW 19 · 10th 26 pts projected GW 20 · 12th 27 pts projected GW 21 · 10th 28 pts projected GW 22 · 9th 30 pts projected GW 23 · 9th 31 pts projected GW 24 · 9th 32 pts projected GW 25 · 9th 34 pts projected GW 26 · 9th 35 pts projected GW 27 · 9th 37 pts projected GW 28 · 9th 37 pts projected GW 29 · 9th 38 pts projected GW 30 · 9th 40 pts projected GW 31 · 9th 41 pts projected GW 32 · 9th 43 pts projected GW 33 · 10th 44 pts projected GW 34 · 10th 45 pts projected GW 35 · 10th 48 pts projected GW 36 · 9th 49 pts projected GW 37 · 11th 50 pts projected GW 38 · 10th 51 pts projected

Against pre-season expectations

Once Everton have played a few matches, this chart will track where they actually are against where we projected them before a ball was kicked — green when they are running ahead of it, red when they are behind.

Next up

Everton vs. Crystal Palace

Saturday 22nd August 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 1

whichteamwillwin.com

Everton win

◀ Everton win Crystal Palace win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 26%

Confidence: Slight

More statsLess
Everton crest
EVE CRY L-D-D-L-L L-D-L-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) -0.80 -1.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) W-W-L-D-L W-L-L-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.40 -1.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.58 1.18 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT — AGAINST THE CALL 2.07 2.64 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 62% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.8 3.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.47 1.70 Defence Conceded per game 1.44 1.48 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven
Crystal Palace crest

The key stat: XI attacking output. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Crystal Palace lead it, 2.64 to 2.07. When this gap appears, whoever fielded the greater attacking threat tends to win, in around 73% of cases. Our call goes the other way — Everton are favoured on the strength of goal difference, their home-and-away records and goal difference in this setting. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callEverton to win: 46% against 28%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • For EvertonGoal difference at this venue 0.40 v -1.20 (clear); Shots on target 4.8 v 3.6 (useful); Home and away form W-W-L-D-L v W-L-L-L-D (useful).
  • For Crystal PalaceXI attacking output 2.64 v 2.07 (useful); Possession 53% v 47% (useful); GK save rate 65% v 62% (slight).
  • FormEverton L-D-D-L-L, Crystal Palace L-D-L-D-L.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Everton 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Pickford98%
  2. Tarkowski98%
  3. Keane98%
  4. Mykolenko98%
  5. O'Brien96%
  6. Dewsbury-Hall98%
  7. Ndiaye98%
  8. JohnsonNEW79%
  9. Röhl77%
  10. Dibling39%
  11. Beto75%
  1. Henderson75%
  2. Canvot98%
  3. Muñoz93%
  4. TomiyasuNEW80%
  5. Hughes92%
  6. Devenny81%
  7. McNeilNEW76%
  8. Kamada75%
  9. Sarr62%
  10. Lerma62%
  11. Strand Larsen76%

Likely subs Travers, Branthwaite, Barry, Patterson, Garner, Armstrong, George

Likely subs Chadi Riad, Mitchell, Richards, Yeremy, Wharton, Nketiah, Guessand

Doubts Garner doubtful, Iroegbunam injured, Nørgaard injured

Doubts Henderson doubtful, Cardines unavailable, Uche unavailable

Our call: 46% EVE · 26% draw · 28% CRY  ·  expected goals 1.58–1.18

Last updated 19 Aug at 12:28

Bournemouth vs. Everton

Saturday 29th August 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 2

whichteamwillwin.com

Bournemouth win

◀ Bournemouth win Everton win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 26%

Confidence: Slight

More statsLess
Bournemouth crest
BOU EVE D-W-W-D-D L-D-D-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) 0.80 -0.80 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) D-D-D-W-D L-D-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.60 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 54% 46% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.57 1.21 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT — AGAINST THE CALL 1.45 1.44 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Strong 1594 Average 1522 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.69 1.25 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 73% 62% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 3.9 4.8 Exp: Shots on target Per game
Everton crest

The key stat: XI defensive record. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. Everton come out on top, 1.44 against 1.45. Historically, the side with the steadier back line takes these roughly 74% of the time. That cuts against our verdict. Bournemouth are tipped because they lead on recent form, goal difference and their home-and-away records. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callBournemouth to win: 45% against 29%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • For BournemouthGK save rate 73% v 62% (decisive); Goal difference 0.80 v -0.80 (clear); Home and away form D-D-D-W-D v L-D-L-D-L (clear).
  • For EvertonShots on target 4.8 v 3.9 (useful); XI defensive record 1.44 v 1.45 (marginal).
  • FormBournemouth D-W-W-D-D, Everton L-D-D-L-L.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Everton 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Petrović98%
  2. Hill98%
  3. Truffert98%
  4. Smith61%
  5. Diakité38%
  6. Tavernier98%
  7. Scott98%
  8. Rayan79%
  9. Adams47%
  10. Kluivert44%
  11. Evanilson95%
  1. Pickford98%
  2. Tarkowski98%
  3. Keane98%
  4. Mykolenko98%
  5. O'Brien96%
  6. Dewsbury-Hall98%
  7. Ndiaye98%
  8. JohnsonNEW79%
  9. Röhl77%
  10. Dibling39%
  11. Beto75%

Likely subs Forster, Cook, Tóth.A, Brooks, Gannon-Doak, Soler, Rodríguez

Likely subs Travers, Branthwaite, Barry, Patterson, Garner, Armstrong, George

Doubts Kroupi.Jr injured, Christie suspended, Adams doubtful, Milosavljević injured, J.Araujo injured, Brooks doubtful, Adli injured, Soler doubtful

Doubts Garner doubtful, Iroegbunam injured, Nørgaard injured

Our call: 45% BOU · 26% draw · 29% EVE  ·  expected goals 1.57–1.21

Last updated 19 Aug at 12:28

The road ahead

The rest of Everton's next 20 fixtures. These are projections from today's model, refreshed each time the season is re-projected — unlike the published predictions above, they are not frozen and do not count towards the track record.

Kick-offGWOpponentWinDrawLoseOur call
Sun 6 Sept, 14:00 3 Manchester United (H) 34% 26% 40% Lose 40%
Sat 12 Sept, 17:30 4 Tottenham Hotspur (A) 36% 27% 37% Lose 37%
Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 5 Ipswich Town (H) 65% 21% 14% Win 65%
Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 6 Hull City (A) 55% 23% 22% Win 55%
Sat 17 Oct, 12:30 7 Chelsea (H) 41% 26% 33% Win 41%
Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 8 Arsenal (A) 13% 19% 68% Lose 68%
Mon 2 Nov, 20:00 9 Newcastle United (A) 30% 26% 44% Lose 44%
Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 10 Coventry City (H) 52% 24% 23% Win 52%
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 11 Brentford (A) 34% 27% 39% Lose 39%
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 12 Liverpool (H) 32% 26% 42% Lose 42%
Wed 2 Dec, 20:00 13 Aston Villa (A) 23% 24% 53% Lose 53%
Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 14 Fulham (H) 43% 27% 30% Win 43%
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 15 Brighton & Hove Albion (A) 26% 25% 49% Lose 49%
Sat 19 Dec, 15:00 16 Nottingham Forest (A) 32% 26% 43% Lose 43%
Sat 26 Dec, 15:00 17 Sunderland (H) 47% 26% 27% Win 47%
Wed 30 Dec, 20:00 18 Manchester City (H) 22% 22% 55% Lose 55%
Sat 2 Jan, 15:00 19 Leeds United (A) 33% 26% 42% Lose 42%
Wed 6 Jan, 20:00 20 Aston Villa (H) 35% 26% 40% Lose 40%