Which Team Will Win?

Chelsea

Where we have Chelsea finishing, the matches they have next, and every call we have made about them this season – frozen at kick-off, right or wrong.

Projected league position, week by week

If the season plays out as the model expects, Chelsea finish 7th on 76 points.

1st 4th 10th 17th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 1st BHA · 3 pts2nd ARS · 3 pts3rd BRE · 3 pts6th CHE · 3 pts10th LIV · 1 pts GW 2 2nd ARS · 6 pts4th CHE · 6 pts5th BRE · 4 pts9th BHA · 3 pts13th LIV · 2 pts GW 3 2nd ARS · 9 pts4th CHE · 6 pts5th BRE · 5 pts6th LIV · 5 pts10th BHA · 4 pts GW 4 1st ARS · 12 pts5th BHA · 7 pts6th CHE · 7 pts7th BRE · 6 pts8th LIV · 6 pts GW 5 2nd ARS · 12 pts3rd BHA · 10 pts4th BRE · 9 pts6th LIV · 9 pts10th CHE · 7 pts GW 6 2nd ARS · 15 pts3rd BHA · 13 pts4th BRE · 10 pts6th CHE · 10 pts9th LIV · 9 pts GW 7 2nd ARS · 18 pts3rd BHA · 16 pts4th CHE · 13 pts5th LIV · 12 pts6th BRE · 10 pts GW 8 · projected 2nd ARS · 21 pts3rd BHA · 16 pts4th CHE · 16 pts5th LIV · 15 pts6th BRE · 13 pts GW 9 · projected 2nd ARS · 24 pts3rd CHE · 19 pts4th BHA · 16 pts5th BRE · 16 pts6th LIV · 15 pts GW 10 · projected 2nd ARS · 27 pts3rd CHE · 22 pts4th BHA · 19 pts5th LIV · 18 pts6th BRE · 16 pts GW 11 · projected 2nd ARS · 30 pts3rd CHE · 25 pts4th BHA · 22 pts5th LIV · 21 pts6th BRE · 19 pts GW 12 · projected 2nd ARS · 33 pts3rd CHE · 28 pts4th BHA · 25 pts5th LIV · 24 pts6th BRE · 19 pts GW 13 · projected 2nd ARS · 36 pts3rd CHE · 31 pts4th LIV · 27 pts5th BHA · 25 pts8th BRE · 19 pts GW 14 · projected 2nd ARS · 39 pts3rd CHE · 31 pts4th LIV · 30 pts5th BHA · 28 pts9th BRE · 19 pts GW 15 · projected 2nd ARS · 42 pts3rd LIV · 33 pts4th BHA · 31 pts5th CHE · 31 pts10th BRE · 19 pts GW 16 · projected 2nd ARS · 45 pts3rd LIV · 36 pts4th BHA · 34 pts5th CHE · 34 pts9th BRE · 22 pts GW 17 · projected 2nd ARS · 48 pts3rd LIV · 39 pts4th BHA · 37 pts5th CHE · 37 pts9th BRE · 25 pts GW 18 · projected 2nd ARS · 51 pts3rd LIV · 42 pts4th BHA · 40 pts5th CHE · 40 pts9th BRE · 28 pts GW 19 · projected 2nd ARS · 54 pts3rd LIV · 45 pts4th BHA · 43 pts5th CHE · 43 pts7th BRE · 31 pts GW 20 · projected 2nd ARS · 57 pts3rd LIV · 48 pts4th BHA · 46 pts5th CHE · 46 pts8th BRE · 31 pts GW 21 · projected 2nd ARS · 60 pts3rd LIV · 51 pts4th BHA · 49 pts5th CHE · 49 pts9th BRE · 31 pts GW 22 · projected 2nd ARS · 63 pts3rd CHE · 52 pts4th LIV · 51 pts5th BHA · 49 pts9th BRE · 31 pts GW 23 · projected 2nd ARS · 63 pts3rd CHE · 55 pts4th LIV · 54 pts5th BHA · 52 pts9th BRE · 31 pts GW 24 · projected 2nd ARS · 66 pts3rd BHA · 55 pts4th CHE · 55 pts5th LIV · 54 pts9th BRE · 31 pts GW 25 · projected 2nd ARS · 69 pts3rd LIV · 57 pts4th BHA · 55 pts5th CHE · 55 pts9th BRE · 34 pts GW 26 · projected 2nd ARS · 72 pts3rd LIV · 60 pts4th BHA · 58 pts5th CHE · 58 pts9th BRE · 37 pts GW 27 · projected 2nd ARS · 75 pts3rd LIV · 63 pts4th BHA · 61 pts5th CHE · 58 pts10th BRE · 37 pts GW 28 · projected 2nd ARS · 78 pts3rd LIV · 66 pts4th BHA · 64 pts5th CHE · 61 pts9th BRE · 40 pts GW 29 · projected 2nd ARS · 81 pts3rd LIV · 69 pts4th BHA · 67 pts5th CHE · 61 pts9th BRE · 43 pts GW 30 · projected 2nd ARS · 84 pts3rd LIV · 72 pts4th BHA · 70 pts5th CHE · 64 pts9th BRE · 43 pts GW 31 · projected 2nd ARS · 87 pts3rd LIV · 75 pts4th BHA · 70 pts5th CHE · 67 pts9th BRE · 46 pts GW 32 · projected 2nd ARS · 90 pts3rd LIV · 78 pts4th BHA · 73 pts5th CHE · 67 pts9th BRE · 49 pts GW 33 · projected 2nd ARS · 93 pts3rd LIV · 81 pts4th BHA · 76 pts5th CHE · 67 pts9th BRE · 52 pts GW 34 · projected 2nd ARS · 96 pts3rd LIV · 84 pts4th BHA · 79 pts6th CHE · 67 pts9th BRE · 52 pts GW 35 · projected 2nd ARS · 99 pts3rd LIV · 84 pts4th BHA · 82 pts6th CHE · 70 pts9th BRE · 55 pts GW 36 · projected 2nd ARS · 102 pts3rd LIV · 87 pts4th BHA · 85 pts6th CHE · 73 pts9th BRE · 55 pts GW 37 · projected 2nd ARS · 105 pts3rd BHA · 88 pts4th LIV · 87 pts7th CHE · 73 pts9th BRE · 58 pts GW 38 · projected 2nd ARS · 108 pts3rd LIV · 90 pts4th BHA · 88 pts7th CHE · 76 pts9th BRE · 58 pts
Chelsea Arsenal derbyLiverpool Champions LeagueBrighton & Hove Albion Champions LeagueBrentford Champions League
Chelsea solid to the last match played, dashed for the forecast. Rivals are dotted throughout, with a dot on their last match played. The white lines are the ones a season is played against – the title, the Champions League places, Europe, and the drop.

Real results so far plus a called outcome for every match still to play, recalculated as results come in. Drawn beside them are the clubs they are actually racing: their usual rivals, and whoever this season has put them in the same fight with. Point at any gameweek for every club's position and points.

Against pre-season expectations

They are 6 places ahead of where we projected them by now.

1st 10th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 · 5 places ahead Actual 6thProjected 11th GW 2 · 6 places ahead Actual 4thProjected 10th GW 3 · 11 places ahead Actual 4thProjected 15th GW 4 · 1 place ahead Actual 6thProjected 7th GW 5 Actual 10thProjected 10th GW 6 · 3 places ahead Actual 6thProjected 9th GW 7 · 6 places ahead Actual 4thProjected 10th GW 8 Projected 10th GW 9 Projected 10th GW 10 Projected 11th GW 11 Projected 9th GW 12 Projected 9th GW 13 Projected 7th GW 14 Projected 9th GW 15 Projected 10th GW 16 Projected 10th GW 17 Projected 9th GW 18 Projected 9th GW 19 Projected 8th GW 20 Projected 8th GW 21 Projected 8th GW 22 Projected 8th GW 23 Projected 8th GW 24 Projected 8th GW 25 Projected 9th GW 26 Projected 8th GW 27 Projected 9th GW 28 Projected 8th GW 29 Projected 8th GW 30 Projected 8th GW 31 Projected 8th GW 32 Projected 8th GW 33 Projected 8th GW 34 Projected 8th GW 35 Projected 9th GW 36 Projected 9th GW 37 Projected 9th GW 38 Projected 9th

Where Chelsea actually are, week by week, against where the pre-season projection had them – shaded green while they run ahead of it, red while they run behind. Point at any gameweek for both figures.

Next up

Everton 0–2 Chelsea

Saturday 17th October 2026 (Kick Off: 12:30) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

whichteamwillwin.com
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Everton win

0–2Full time

Everton crest
◀ Everton win Chelsea win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Chelsea crest

Knife-edge – Everton shade it

EVE CHE D-D-D-W-D W-L-D-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-L-W-D-W D-L-W-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.20 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 43% 57% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.46 1.27 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.50 1.20 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.35 1.76 Defence Conceded per game 1.36 1.57 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 66% 67% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Above average 1537 Strong 1570 Elo performance 1500 is average 2.25 2.09 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven EVE CHE D-D-D-W-D W-L-D-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-L-W-D-W D-L-W-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.20 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 43% 57% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.46 1.27 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.50 1.20 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.35 1.76 Defence Conceded per game 1.36 1.57 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 66% 67% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Above average 1537 Strong 1570 Elo performance 1500 is average 2.25 2.09 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven

The key stat: Attack. No other measure separates them as clearly. It goes to Everton: 1.50 to 1.20. the more productive attack normally comes out on top here – 73% of the time in recent seasons. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callKnife-edge – Everton 41%, draw 26%, Chelsea 32%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Everton comes from home advantage, the defence in front of them and what this eleven creates.
  • For EvertonHome and away form D-L-W-D-W v D-L-W-L-L (useful); Defence 1.35 v 1.76 (useful); XI defensive record 1.36 v 1.57 (useful).
  • For ChelseaPossession 57% v 43% (decisive); Elo performance 1570 v 1537 (slight); GK save rate 67% v 66% (marginal).
  • FormEverton D-D-D-W-D, Chelsea W-L-D-L-W.
Everton 4-2-3-1 confirmedChelsea 3-4-2-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Everton 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Chelsea 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 J. Pickford 16 V. Mykolenko 4 Branthwaite 6 J. Tarkowski 2 Maitland-Niles 45 H. Armstrong 37 J. Garner 10 J. Grealish 8 Dewsbury-Hall 34 M. Röhl 11 T. Barry
1 E. Martínez 6 L. Colwill 5 M. Lacroix 34 J. Acheampong 21 J. Hato 25 M. Caicedo 14 J. Henderson 7 Pedro Neto 17 M. Rogers 10 C. Palmer 9 João Pedro
  1. J. Pickford
  2. V. Mykolenko
  3. J. Branthwaite
  4. J. Tarkowski
  5. A. Maitland-Niles
  6. H. Armstrong
  7. J. Garner
  8. J. Grealish
  9. K. Dewsbury-Hall
  10. M. Röhl
  11. T. Barry
  1. E. Martínez
  2. L. Colwill
  3. M. Lacroix
  4. J. Acheampong
  5. J. Hato
  6. M. Caicedo
  7. J. Henderson
  8. Pedro Neto
  9. M. Rogers
  10. C. Palmer
  11. João Pedro

Substitutes C. Alcaraz, T. Dibling, T. George, B. Graham, H. Hackney, B. Johnson, J. O'Brien, C. Nørgaard, M. Travers

Substitutes Estêvão, V. Barco, W. Fofana, R. Lavia, M. Nicoll-Jazuli, M. Palestra, M. Penders, D. Welbeck, Geovany Quenda

Our call: 41% EVE · 26% draw · 32% CHE  ·  bookmakers: 30% / 26% / 44%  ·  expected goals 1.46–1.27

Last updated 17 Oct at 11:44

Chelsea vs. Tottenham Hotspur

Saturday 24th October 2026 (Kick Off: 17:30) · Gameweek 8

whichteamwillwin.com

Chelsea win

Chelsea crest
◀ Chelsea win Tottenham win ▶ 22% draw chance bookmakers
Tottenham Hotspur crest

Confidence: Strong

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CHE TOT L-D-L-W-W L-D-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-W-D-W W-L-L-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 48% 52% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.97 0.86 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 71% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 4.7 3.5 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.43 1.27 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Strong 1580 Below average 1454 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.43 1.13 Defence Conceded per game CHE TOT L-D-L-W-W L-D-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-W-D-W W-L-L-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 48% 52% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.97 0.86 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 71% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 4.7 3.5 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.43 1.27 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Strong 1580 Below average 1454 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.43 1.13 Defence Conceded per game

The key stat: GK save rate. No other measure separates them as clearly. Chelsea come out on top, 71% against 65%. the side with the goalkeeper in better form normally comes out on top here – 71% of the time in recent seasons. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callChelsea to win: 63% against 15%, with the draw at 22%. Confidence strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target – the strongest pull the other way is the defence in front of them.
  • For ChelseaGoals 1.97 v 0.86 (clear); GK save rate 71% v 65% (clear); Home and away form L-W-W-D-W v W-L-L-D-D (clear).
  • For Tottenham HotspurDefence 1.13 v 1.43 (useful); XI defensive record 1.27 v 1.43 (useful); Possession 52% v 48% (slight).
  • FormChelsea L-D-L-W-W, Tottenham Hotspur L-D-D-L-D.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Chelsea 3-4-2-1 expected · 11 unavailable · 2 doubtfulTottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1 expected · 16 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Chelsea 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

39 M. Penders 5 M. Lacroix 6 L. Colwill 34 J. Acheampong 3 W. Fofana 10 C. Palmer 17 M. Rogers 7 P. Neto 14 J. Henderson 25 Caicedo 9 João Pedro
31 Kinsky 6 J. Van Hecke 37 Van de Ven 3 A. Robertson 16 S. Tonali 14 A. Gray 18 M. Fernandes 11 M. Tel 8 C. Gallagher 22 O. Marmoush 19 Solanke
  1. M. Penders25%
  2. M. Lacroix80%
  3. L. Colwill80%
  4. J. Acheampong62%
  5. W. Fofana58%
  6. C. Palmer98%
  7. M. Rogers98%
  8. P. Neto98%
  9. J. Henderson60%
  10. Caicedo38%
  11. João Pedro78%
  1. Kinsky98%
  2. J. Van Hecke98%
  3. M. Van de Ven81%
  4. A. Robertson61%
  5. S. Tonali98%
  6. A. Gray64%
  7. M. Fernandes54%
  8. M. Tel39%
  9. C. Gallagher38%
  10. O. Marmoush80%
  11. Solanke57%

Likely subs J. Hato, R. Lavia, Chavarria, Estêvão, D. Welbeck, V. Barco, M. Palestra

Likely subs D. Udogie, M. Kudus, J. Maddison, Tosin, M. Dubravka, B. Davies, Senesi

Doubts Martinez injured, Chavarria doubtful, R. James injured, M. Gusto doubtful, E. Emegha injured, J. Gittens injured, T. Chalobah unavailable, F. Jörgensen unavailable

Doubts R. Bentancur suspended, Sávio injured, Pedro Porro injured, A. Phillips unavailable, L. Bergvall injured, M. Mudryk injured, M. Moore unavailable, D. Kulusevski doubtful

Our call: 63% CHE · 22% draw · 15% TOT  ·  bookmakers: 54% / 23% / 23%  ·  expected goals 1.97–0.86

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Chelsea vs. Manchester United

Saturday 31st October 2026 (Kick Off: 12:30) · Gameweek 9

whichteamwillwin.com

Chelsea win

Chelsea crest
◀ Chelsea win Man United win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers
Manchester United crest

Knife-edge – Chelsea shade it

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CHE MUN L-D-L-W-W D-L-D-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-W-D-W W-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.55 1.37 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.07 2.82 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 71% 70% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.31 1.66 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 4.7 5.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.43 1.35 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven CHE MUN L-D-L-W-W D-L-D-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-W-D-W W-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.55 1.37 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.07 2.82 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 71% 70% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.31 1.66 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 4.7 5.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.43 1.35 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven

The key stat: XI attacking output. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. It goes to Manchester United: 2.82 to 2.07. Historically, the side naming the more potent eleven takes these roughly 72% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

Against the call – it favours Manchester United; the fine margin sits with Chelsea, who edge home advantage and changes in the other camp.

  • The callKnife-edge – Chelsea 41%, draw 25%, Manchester United 33%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Chelsea comes from home advantage and changes in the other camp.
  • For ChelseaHome and away form L-W-W-D-W v W-L-D-D-D (useful); Goal difference 0.40 v -0.20 (slight); Goal difference at this venue 0.80 v 0.20 (slight).
  • For Manchester UnitedXI attacking output 2.82 v 2.07 (clear); Attack 1.66 v 1.31 (useful); Shots on target 5.3 v 4.7 (slight).
  • FormChelsea L-D-L-W-W, Manchester United D-L-D-D-D.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Chelsea 3-4-2-1 expected · 11 unavailable · 2 doubtfulManchester United 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable · 3 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Chelsea 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

Manchester United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

39 M. Penders 5 M. Lacroix 6 L. Colwill 34 J. Acheampong 3 W. Fofana 10 C. Palmer 17 M. Rogers 7 P. Neto 14 J. Henderson 25 Caicedo 9 João Pedro
1 S. Lammens 5 H. Maguire 2 Dalot 6 Martinez 23 L. Shaw 8 B.Fernandes 19 B. Mbeumo 18 Y. Tielemans 10 M. Cunha 37 K. Mainoo 9 M. Rashford
  1. M. Penders25%
  2. M. Lacroix80%
  3. L. Colwill80%
  4. J. Acheampong62%
  5. W. Fofana58%
  6. C. Palmer98%
  7. M. Rogers98%
  8. P. Neto98%
  9. J. Henderson60%
  10. Caicedo38%
  11. João Pedro78%
  1. S. Lammens98%
  2. H. Maguire98%
  3. Dalot82%
  4. Martinez72%
  5. L. Shaw45%
  6. B.Fernandes98%
  7. B. Mbeumo98%
  8. Y. Tielemans94%
  9. M. Cunha79%
  10. K. Mainoo59%
  11. M. Rashford56%

Likely subs J. Hato, R. Lavia, Chavarria, Estêvão, D. Welbeck, V. Barco, M. Palestra

Likely subs K. Darlow, L. Yoro, Amad, M. Mount, J. Zirkzee, M. De Ligt, S. Lacey

Doubts Martinez injured, Chavarria doubtful, R. James injured, M. Gusto doubtful, E. Emegha injured, J. Gittens injured, T. Chalobah unavailable, F. Jörgensen unavailable

Doubts Martinez doubtful, K. Mainoo doubtful, L. Shaw doubtful, P. Dorgu injured, T. Heaton injured, Šeško injured, Ugarte injured, T. Collyer unavailable

Our call: 41% CHE · 25% draw · 33% MUN  ·  bookmakers: 47% / 25% / 29%  ·  expected goals 1.55–1.37

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Sunderland vs. Chelsea

Sunday 8th November 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 10

whichteamwillwin.com

Chelsea win

Sunderland crest
◀ Sunderland win Chelsea win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Chelsea crest

Knife-edge – Chelsea shade it

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SUN CHE D-L-L-L-L L-D-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches -1.60 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-W-L-L L-W-L-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.28 1.50 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.65 1.43 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Below average 1470 Strong 1580 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.63 1.43 Defence Conceded per game 59% 71% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.33 2.07 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven SUN CHE D-L-L-L-L L-D-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches -1.60 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-W-L-L L-W-L-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.28 1.50 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.65 1.43 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Below average 1470 Strong 1580 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.63 1.43 Defence Conceded per game 59% 71% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.33 2.07 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven

The key stat: XI defensive record. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Chelsea come out on top, 1.43 against 1.65. When this gap appears, whoever fielded the more solid defence tends to win, in around 74% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callKnife-edge – Sunderland 32%, draw 26%, Chelsea 42%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Chelsea comes from the long-run strength gap, changes in the other camp and the defence in front of them.
  • For ChelseaGK save rate 71% v 59% (decisive); Goal difference 0.40 v -1.60 (decisive); Elo performance 1580 v 1470 (useful).
  • For SunderlandXI attacking output 2.33 v 2.07 (slight); Home and away form D-W-W-L-L v L-W-L-L-W (marginal).
  • FormSunderland D-L-L-L-L, Chelsea L-D-L-W-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Sunderland 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable · 2 doubtfulChelsea 3-4-2-1 expected · 11 unavailable · 2 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Sunderland 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Chelsea 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

22 R. Roefs 20 N. Mukiele 17 Reinildo 12 T. Meunier 32 T. Hume 6 Methalie 28 E.Le Fée 34 G. Xhaka 27 N. Sadiki 10 N.Angulo 9 B. Brobbey
39 M. Penders 5 M. Lacroix 6 L. Colwill 34 J. Acheampong 3 W. Fofana 10 C. Palmer 17 M. Rogers 7 P. Neto 14 J. Henderson 25 Caicedo 9 João Pedro
  1. R. Roefs98%
  2. N. Mukiele98%
  3. Reinildo78%
  4. T. Meunier53%
  5. T. Hume43%
  6. Methalie25%
  7. E.Le Fée98%
  8. G. Xhaka98%
  9. N. Sadiki96%
  10. N.Angulo71%
  11. B. Brobbey60%
  1. M. Penders25%
  2. M. Lacroix80%
  3. L. Colwill80%
  4. J. Acheampong62%
  5. W. Fofana58%
  6. C. Palmer98%
  7. M. Rogers98%
  8. P. Neto98%
  9. J. Henderson60%
  10. Caicedo38%
  11. João Pedro78%

Likely subs M. Fofana, H. Diarra, C. Talbi, J. Ahoka, J.Angulo, M. Ellborg, L. O'Nien

Likely subs J. Hato, R. Lavia, Chavarria, Estêvão, D. Welbeck, V. Barco, M. Palestra

Doubts K. Danso suspended, T. Meunier doubtful, D. Ballard injured, W. Isidor doubtful, L. Hjelde unavailable, J. Seelt unavailable, A. Patterson unavailable, S. Adingra unavailable

Doubts Martinez injured, Chavarria doubtful, R. James injured, M. Gusto doubtful, E. Emegha injured, J. Gittens injured, T. Chalobah unavailable, F. Jörgensen unavailable

Our call: 32% SUN · 26% draw · 42% CHE  ·  expected goals 1.28–1.50

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Chelsea vs. Leeds United

Saturday 21st November 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 11

whichteamwillwin.com

Chelsea win

Chelsea crest
◀ Chelsea win Leeds United win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Leeds United crest

Confidence: Fair

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CHE LEE L-D-L-W-W D-W-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-W-D-W D-L-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 53% 47% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.63 1.01 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.43 1.33 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Strong 1580 Average 1518 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.43 1.56 Defence Conceded per game 4.7 3.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 71% 74% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved CHE LEE L-D-L-W-W D-W-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-W-D-W D-L-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 53% 47% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.63 1.01 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.43 1.33 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Strong 1580 Average 1518 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.43 1.56 Defence Conceded per game 4.7 3.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 71% 74% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved

The key stat: XI defensive record. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. It goes to Leeds United: 1.33 to 1.43. When this gap appears, whoever fielded the more solid defence tends to win, in around 74% of cases. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

Against the call – it favours Leeds United; Chelsea are tipped because they lead on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and recent shots on target.

  • The callChelsea to win: 51% against 23%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and recent shots on target.
  • For ChelseaHome and away form L-W-W-D-W v D-L-W-D-L (clear); Goal difference at this venue 0.80 v -0.60 (clear); Shots on target 4.7 v 3.4 (useful).
  • For Leeds UnitedGK save rate 74% v 71% (slight); XI defensive record 1.33 v 1.43 (slight).
  • FormChelsea L-D-L-W-W, Leeds United D-W-D-L-D.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Chelsea 3-4-2-1 expected · 11 unavailable · 2 doubtfulLeeds United 3-4-2-1 expected · 7 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Chelsea 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

Leeds United 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

39 M. Penders 5 M. Lacroix 6 L. Colwill 34 J. Acheampong 3 W. Fofana 10 C. Palmer 17 M. Rogers 7 P. Neto 14 J. Henderson 25 Caicedo 9 João Pedro
1 J. Trafford 5 T. Muharemović 3 G. Gudmundsson 24 J. Justin 30 N. Elvedi 2 J. Bogle 18 A. Stach 4 E. Ampadu 22 Tanaka 19 N. Okafor 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
  1. M. Penders25%
  2. M. Lacroix80%
  3. L. Colwill80%
  4. J. Acheampong62%
  5. W. Fofana58%
  6. C. Palmer98%
  7. M. Rogers98%
  8. P. Neto98%
  9. J. Henderson60%
  10. Caicedo38%
  11. João Pedro78%
  1. J. Trafford98%
  2. T. Muharemović98%
  3. G. Gudmundsson98%
  4. J. Justin98%
  5. N. Elvedi98%
  6. J. Bogle94%
  7. A. Stach98%
  8. E. Ampadu98%
  9. Tanaka92%
  10. N. Okafor91%
  11. D. Calvert-Lewin97%

Likely subs J. Hato, R. Lavia, Chavarria, Estêvão, D. Welbeck, V. Barco, M. Palestra

Likely subs H. Wilson, L. Nmecha, B. Aaronson, J. Bijol, I. Gruev, J. Bahoya, S. Longstaff

Doubts Martinez injured, Chavarria doubtful, R. James injured, M. Gusto doubtful, E. Emegha injured, J. Gittens injured, T. Chalobah unavailable, F. Jörgensen unavailable

Doubts D. James doubtful, W. Gnonto unavailable, J. Harrison unavailable, J. Piroe unavailable, L. Perri unavailable, S. Bornauw unavailable, Mateo Joseph injured, J. Rodon injured

Our call: 51% CHE · 25% draw · 23% LEE  ·  expected goals 1.63–1.01

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

The whole season

All 38 of Chelsea's league matches, what we said would happen, and – where it has been played – what actually did. We have called 4 of 6 of their decided matches so far; 1 was a draw, which nobody scores. Rows marked projected are today's model looking ahead: they move every time the season is re-projected, so they are not frozen and are never graded. Everything else is the call we published before kick-off.

GWKick-offOpponentWinDrawLoseOur callResultCalled it?
1 Mon 24 Aug, 20:00 Fulham (A) 32% 27% 42% LoseConfidence: Knife-edge 3–2
2 Sun 30 Aug, 14:00 Brighton & Hove Albion (H) 39% 26% 35% WinConfidence: Knife-edge 4–3
3 Sun 6 Sept, 16:30 Arsenal (A) 15% 22% 64% LoseConfidence: Strong 1–2
4 Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 Hull City (H) 65% 20% 15% WinConfidence: Strong 2–2
5 Fri 18 Sept, 20:00 Brentford (A) 36% 26% 38% LoseConfidence: Knife-edge 0–3
6 Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 Bournemouth (H) 38% 26% 36% WinConfidence: Knife-edge 5–1
7 Sat 17 Oct, 12:30 Everton (A) 32% 26% 41% LoseConfidence: Knife-edge 2–0
8 Sat 24 Oct, 17:30 Tottenham Hotspur (H) 63% 22% 15% WinConfidence: Strong –
9 Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 Manchester United (H) 41% 25% 33% WinConfidence: Knife-edge –
10 Sun 8 Nov, 14:00 Sunderland (A) 42% 26% 32% WinConfidence: Knife-edge –
11 Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 Leeds United (H) 51% 25% 23% WinConfidence: Fair –
12 Fri 27 Nov, 20:00 Nottingham Forest (A) 38% 27% 36% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
13 Wed 2 Dec, 20:00 Crystal Palace (H) 56% 23% 21% WinProjected: Fair –
14 Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 Liverpool (H) 35% 27% 39% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
15 Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 Manchester City (A) 17% 21% 61% LoseProjected: Strong –
16 Sat 19 Dec, 15:00 Aston Villa (H) 41% 27% 32% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
17 Sun 27 Dec, 14:00 Coventry City (A) 47% 26% 28% WinProjected: Slight –
18 Wed 30 Dec, 20:15 Ipswich Town (A) 52% 25% 24% WinProjected: Fair –
19 Sun 3 Jan, 14:00 Newcastle United (H) 48% 25% 27% WinProjected: Slight –
20 Wed 6 Jan, 19:30 Crystal Palace (A) 43% 26% 31% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
21 Sat 16 Jan, 15:00 Sunderland (H) 55% 23% 21% WinProjected: Fair –
22 Sat 23 Jan, 15:00 Leeds United (A) 39% 27% 34% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
23 Sat 30 Jan, 15:00 Nottingham Forest (H) 51% 25% 24% WinProjected: Fair –
24 Sat 6 Feb, 15:00 Manchester United (A) 27% 25% 48% LoseProjected: Slight –
25 Wed 10 Feb, 20:00 Newcastle United (A) 35% 26% 38% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
26 Sat 20 Feb, 15:00 Ipswich Town (H) 64% 21% 15% WinProjected: Strong –
27 Sat 27 Feb, 15:00 Aston Villa (A) 29% 26% 45% LoseProjected: Slight –
28 Wed 3 Mar, 20:00 Coventry City (H) 60% 22% 18% WinProjected: Strong –
29 Sat 13 Mar, 15:00 Arsenal (H) 24% 25% 51% LoseProjected: Fair –
30 Sat 20 Mar, 15:00 Hull City (A) 49% 25% 25% WinProjected: Fair –
31 Sat 10 Apr, 15:00 Fulham (H) 49% 25% 26% WinProjected: Fair –
32 Sat 17 Apr, 15:00 Brighton & Hove Albion (A) 28% 26% 46% LoseProjected: Slight –
33 Sat 24 Apr, 15:00 Manchester City (H) 27% 25% 48% LoseProjected: Slight –
34 Sat 1 May, 15:00 Liverpool (A) 23% 24% 52% LoseProjected: Fair –
35 Sat 8 May, 15:00 Tottenham Hotspur (A) 44% 26% 30% WinProjected: Slight –
36 Sat 15 May, 15:00 Everton (H) 48% 25% 27% WinProjected: Slight –
37 Sun 23 May, 15:00 Bournemouth (A) 29% 26% 46% LoseProjected: Slight –
38 Sun 30 May, 16:00 Brentford (H) 48% 25% 27% WinProjected: Slight –

Called the winner Called it wrong Drawn – no winner to call