Which Team Will Win?

Chelsea

Every published prediction involving Chelsea, newest first, frozen at kick-off as always.

Projected league position, week by week

If the season plays out as the model expects, Chelsea finish 8th on about 53 points. Every other club is drawn faintly for context.

1st 4th 10th 17th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 · 11th 1 pts projected GW 2 · 11th 3 pts projected GW 3 · 16th 3 pts projected GW 4 · 7th 6 pts projected GW 5 · 9th 7 pts projected GW 6 · 9th 9 pts projected GW 7 · 10th 10 pts projected GW 8 · 10th 12 pts projected GW 9 · 8th 13 pts projected GW 10 · 9th 14 pts projected GW 11 · 8th 16 pts projected GW 12 · 8th 17 pts projected GW 13 · 7th 19 pts projected GW 14 · 8th 20 pts projected GW 15 · 9th 21 pts projected GW 16 · 9th 22 pts projected GW 17 · 8th 24 pts projected GW 18 · 8th 25 pts projected GW 19 · 8th 27 pts projected GW 20 · 8th 28 pts projected GW 21 · 8th 30 pts projected GW 22 · 8th 31 pts projected GW 23 · 8th 33 pts projected GW 24 · 8th 34 pts projected GW 25 · 8th 35 pts projected GW 26 · 8th 37 pts projected GW 27 · 8th 38 pts projected GW 28 · 8th 40 pts projected GW 29 · 8th 41 pts projected GW 30 · 8th 43 pts projected GW 31 · 8th 45 pts projected GW 32 · 8th 46 pts projected GW 33 · 8th 47 pts projected GW 34 · 8th 48 pts projected GW 35 · 8th 49 pts projected GW 36 · 8th 51 pts projected GW 37 · 8th 52 pts projected GW 38 · 8th 53 pts projected

Against pre-season expectations

Once Chelsea have played a few matches, this chart will track where they actually are against where we projected them before a ball was kicked — green when they are running ahead of it, red when they are behind.

Next up

Fulham vs. Chelsea

Monday 24th August 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 1

whichteamwillwin.com

Too close to call

◀ Fulham win Chelsea win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 27%

Draw 27% · leans FUL by 7 points

More statsLess
Fulham crest
FUL CHE W-L-L-D-W L-L-D-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) -0.20 -1.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) L-W-W-L-W W-L-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.60 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.35 1.19 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.22 1.40 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 75% 64% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.20 2.47 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.20 1.47 Defence Conceded per game 1.28 1.13 Attack Goals and expected goals per game
Chelsea crest

The key stat: XI defensive record. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. It goes to Fulham: 1.22 to 1.40. When this gap appears, whoever fielded the more solid defence tends to win, in around 69% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callToo close to call — Fulham 40%, draw 27%, Chelsea 33%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • For FulhamGK save rate 75% v 64% (decisive); Home and away form L-W-W-L-W v W-L-L-D-L (clear); Goal difference at this venue 0.60 v -0.80 (clear).
  • For ChelseaXI attacking output 2.47 v 2.20 (slight); Possession 51% v 49% (marginal).
  • FormFulham W-L-L-D-W, Chelsea L-L-D-W-L.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Fulham 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Chelsea 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Leno98%
  2. Tete98%
  3. Bassey98%
  4. Castagne98%
  5. Robinson81%
  6. Berge97%
  7. Iwobi95%
  8. Smith Rowe93%
  9. Bobb42%
  10. Kevin42%
  11. Muniz60%
  1. Sánchez98%
  2. LacroixNEW98%
  3. Gusto98%
  4. Disasi98%
  5. Hato97%
  6. Palmer98%
  7. RogersNEW98%
  8. Enzo98%
  9. Neto98%
  10. Caicedo98%
  11. João Pedro98%

Likely subs Sessegnon, J.Cuenca, Reed, King, Kusi-Asare, Charles, Gonzalo

Likely subs B.Badiashile, N.Jackson, Colwill, Estêvão, James, Barco, Delap

Doubts Andersen suspended, Cairney injured

Doubts Fofana suspended, Welbeck doubtful, Jörgensen unavailable, Henderson doubtful, Chalobah unavailable

Our call: 40% FUL · 27% draw · 33% CHE  ·  expected goals 1.35–1.19

Last updated 19 Aug at 12:28

Chelsea vs. Brighton & Hove Albion

Sunday 30th August 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 2

whichteamwillwin.com

Too close to call

◀ Chelsea win Brighton win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 25%

Draw 25% · leans CHE by 6 points

More statsLess
Chelsea crest
CHE BHA L-L-D-W-L W-L-W-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) -1.00 0.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) L-L-L-L-W W-W-D-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) -1.20 0.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.53 1.39 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 64% 71% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 3.6 5.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.13 1.64 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.40 1.18 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 2.47 2.78 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven
Brighton & Hove Albion crest

The key stat: GK save rate. This is the widest gap between them. Brighton & Hove Albion come out on top, 71% against 64%. In matches like this, whoever had the more reliable last line usually wins — about 63% of the time. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callToo close to call — Chelsea 40%, draw 25%, Brighton & Hove Albion 34%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • For ChelseaGoals 1.53 v 1.39 (marginal).
  • For Brighton & Hove AlbionShots on target 5.2 v 3.6 (clear); GK save rate 71% v 64% (clear); Attack 1.64 v 1.13 (useful).
  • FormChelsea L-L-D-W-L, Brighton & Hove Albion W-L-W-L-L.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Chelsea 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Sánchez98%
  2. LacroixNEW98%
  3. Gusto98%
  4. Disasi98%
  5. Hato97%
  6. Palmer98%
  7. RogersNEW98%
  8. Enzo98%
  9. Neto98%
  10. Caicedo98%
  11. João Pedro98%
  1. Verbruggen98%
  2. F.Kadıoğlu98%
  3. Boscagli98%
  4. StruijkNEW98%
  5. Wieffer92%
  6. Groß98%
  7. Hinshelwood98%
  8. Gomez75%
  9. Ayari41%
  10. O'Riley22%
  11. Georginio24%

Likely subs B.Badiashile, N.Jackson, Colwill, Estêvão, James, Barco, Delap

Likely subs Steele, Dunk, De Cuyper, Coppola, Igor, Kostoulas, Oriola

Doubts Fofana suspended, Welbeck doubtful, Jörgensen unavailable, Henderson doubtful, Chalobah unavailable

Doubts Minteh injured, Baleba injured, Mitoma injured, Buonanotte unavailable, Howell unavailable, Ferguson injured, Tzimas injured, Watson unavailable

Our call: 40% CHE · 25% draw · 34% BHA  ·  expected goals 1.53–1.39

Last updated today at 09:41

The road ahead

The rest of Chelsea's next 20 fixtures. These are projections from today's model, refreshed each time the season is re-projected — unlike the published predictions above, they are not frozen and do not count towards the track record.

Kick-offGWOpponentWinDrawLoseOur call
Sun 6 Sept, 16:30 3 Arsenal (A) 16% 21% 63% Lose 63%
Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 4 Hull City (H) 69% 18% 12% Win 69%
Fri 18 Sept, 20:00 5 Brentford (A) 35% 27% 37% Lose 37%
Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 6 Bournemouth (H) 41% 27% 32% Win 41%
Sat 17 Oct, 12:30 7 Everton (A) 33% 26% 41% Lose 41%
Sat 24 Oct, 17:30 8 Tottenham Hotspur (H) 51% 25% 24% Win 51%
Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 9 Manchester United (H) 34% 26% 40% Lose 40%
Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 10 Sunderland (A) 36% 27% 37% Lose 37%
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 11 Leeds United (H) 47% 25% 28% Win 47%
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 12 Nottingham Forest (A) 33% 26% 40% Lose 40%
Wed 2 Dec, 20:00 13 Crystal Palace (H) 48% 26% 26% Win 48%
Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 14 Liverpool (H) 34% 26% 40% Lose 40%
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 15 Manchester City (A) 14% 19% 66% Lose 66%
Sat 19 Dec, 15:00 16 Aston Villa (H) 36% 26% 37% Lose 37%
Sat 26 Dec, 15:00 17 Coventry City (A) 41% 26% 33% Win 41%
Wed 30 Dec, 20:00 18 Ipswich Town (A) 53% 25% 22% Win 53%
Sat 2 Jan, 15:00 19 Newcastle United (H) 44% 26% 30% Win 44%
Wed 6 Jan, 20:00 20 Crystal Palace (A) 35% 27% 38% Lose 38%