Which Team Will Win?

Chelsea vs. Tottenham Hotspur

Saturday 24th October 2026 (Kick Off: 17:30) · Gameweek 8

whichteamwillwin.com

Chelsea win

Chelsea crest
◀ Chelsea win Tottenham win ▶ 22% draw chance bookmakers
Tottenham Hotspur crest

Confidence: Strong

MoreLess
CHE TOT L-D-L-W-W L-D-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-W-D-W W-L-L-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 48% 52% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.97 0.86 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 71% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 4.7 3.5 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.43 1.27 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Strong 1580 Below average 1454 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.43 1.13 Defence Conceded per game CHE TOT L-D-L-W-W L-D-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-W-D-W W-L-L-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 48% 52% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.97 0.86 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 71% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 4.7 3.5 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.43 1.27 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Strong 1580 Below average 1454 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.43 1.13 Defence Conceded per game

The key stat: GK save rate. No other measure separates them as clearly. Chelsea come out on top, 71% against 65%. the side with the goalkeeper in better form normally comes out on top here – 71% of the time in recent seasons. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callChelsea to win: 63% against 15%, with the draw at 22%. Confidence strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target – the strongest pull the other way is the defence in front of them.
  • For ChelseaGoals 1.97 v 0.86 (clear); GK save rate 71% v 65% (clear); Home and away form L-W-W-D-W v W-L-L-D-D (clear).
  • For Tottenham HotspurDefence 1.13 v 1.43 (useful); XI defensive record 1.27 v 1.43 (useful); Possession 52% v 48% (slight).
  • FormChelsea L-D-L-W-W, Tottenham Hotspur L-D-D-L-D.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Chelsea 3-4-2-1 expected · 11 unavailable · 2 doubtfulTottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1 expected · 16 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Chelsea 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

39 M. Penders 5 M. Lacroix 6 L. Colwill 34 J. Acheampong 3 W. Fofana 10 C. Palmer 17 M. Rogers 7 P. Neto 14 J. Henderson 25 Caicedo 9 João Pedro
31 Kinsky 6 J. Van Hecke 37 Van de Ven 3 A. Robertson 16 S. Tonali 14 A. Gray 18 M. Fernandes 11 M. Tel 8 C. Gallagher 22 O. Marmoush 19 Solanke
  1. M. Penders25%
  2. M. Lacroix80%
  3. L. Colwill80%
  4. J. Acheampong62%
  5. W. Fofana58%
  6. C. Palmer98%
  7. M. Rogers98%
  8. P. Neto98%
  9. J. Henderson60%
  10. Caicedo38%
  11. João Pedro78%
  1. Kinsky98%
  2. J. Van Hecke98%
  3. M. Van de Ven81%
  4. A. Robertson61%
  5. S. Tonali98%
  6. A. Gray64%
  7. M. Fernandes54%
  8. M. Tel39%
  9. C. Gallagher38%
  10. O. Marmoush80%
  11. Solanke57%

Likely subs J. Hato, R. Lavia, Chavarria, Estêvão, D. Welbeck, V. Barco, M. Palestra

Likely subs D. Udogie, M. Kudus, J. Maddison, Tosin, M. Dubravka, B. Davies, Senesi

Doubts Martinez injured, Chavarria doubtful, R. James injured, M. Gusto doubtful, E. Emegha injured, J. Gittens injured, T. Chalobah unavailable, F. Jörgensen unavailable

Doubts R. Bentancur suspended, Sávio injured, Pedro Porro injured, A. Phillips unavailable, L. Bergvall injured, M. Mudryk injured, M. Moore unavailable, D. Kulusevski doubtful

Our call: 63% CHE · 22% draw · 15% TOT  ·  bookmakers: 54% / 23% / 23%  ·  expected goals 1.97–0.86

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ ChelseaTottenham ▸Goals
Long-run strength 0.52
Home advantage 0.27
Shots on target 0.13
Settled eleven 0.04
Defence 0.03
XI attacking output 0.02
Everything else 0.20
Chelsea ahead by 1.11

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Chelsea come out 1.11 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 2–0

Tottenham goals Chelsea goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Chelsea 0–0 Tottenham: 6% Chelsea 0–1 Tottenham: 5% Chelsea 0–2 Tottenham: 2% Chelsea 0–3 Tottenham: <1% Chelsea 0–4 Tottenham: <1% Chelsea 1–0 Tottenham: 11% Chelsea 1–1 Tottenham: 10% Chelsea 1–2 Tottenham: 4% Chelsea 1–3 Tottenham: 1% Chelsea 1–4 Tottenham: <1% Chelsea 2–0 Tottenham: 11% Chelsea 2–1 Tottenham: 10% Chelsea 2–2 Tottenham: 4% Chelsea 2–3 Tottenham: 1% Chelsea 2–4 Tottenham: <1% Chelsea 3–0 Tottenham: 7% Chelsea 3–1 Tottenham: 6% Chelsea 3–2 Tottenham: 3% Chelsea 3–3 Tottenham: <1% Chelsea 3–4 Tottenham: <1% Chelsea 4–0 Tottenham: 4% Chelsea 4–1 Tottenham: 3% Chelsea 4–2 Tottenham: 1% Chelsea 4–3 Tottenham: <1% Chelsea 4–4 Tottenham: <1% Chelsea 5–0 Tottenham: 1% Chelsea 5–1 Tottenham: 1% Chelsea 5–2 Tottenham: <1% Chelsea 5–3 Tottenham: <1% Chelsea 6–0 Tottenham: <1% Chelsea 6–1 Tottenham: <1% Chelsea 6–2 Tottenham: <1% Chelsea 6–3 Tottenham: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Chelsea win, above it Tottenham do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →