Which Team Will Win?

Results

Every published call, scored against what actually happened – and how that compares with the bookmakers.

35 / 49Winners called
71%Our strike rate
67%Bookmakers’ strike rate
20Drawn, not scored

The race

How close every published probability has run to what actually happened.

Difference in accuracy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Gameweek 6 bookmakers 73.6–73.7% 6 bookmakers 69.6–69.8% Which Team Will Win 69.5% Gameweek 1 · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win70.3%Bet36571.5% (+1.2)bwin71.4% (+1.1)Betfair71.4% (+1.1)Sky Bet71.3% (+1.0)BetVictor71.3% (+1.0)Paddy Power71.2% (+0.8) Gameweek 1 · 10 scored Which Team Will Win70.3%6 bookmakers71.2–71.5% (+1.0) Gameweek 2 · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win69.9%Bet36571.2% (+1.3)Betfair71.2% (+1.2)Sky Bet71.1% (+1.2)bwin71.0% (+1.1)BetVictor71.0% (+1.1)Paddy Power71.0% (+1.0) Gameweek 2 · 20 scored Which Team Will Win69.9%6 bookmakers71.0–71.2% (+1.2) Gameweek 3 · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win69.3%Sky Bet70.2% (+0.9)Bet36570.2% (+0.9)Betfair70.1% (+0.8)Paddy Power70.1% (+0.8)bwin70.0% (+0.8)BetVictor70.0% (+0.7) Gameweek 3 · 30 scored Which Team Will Win69.3%6 bookmakers70.0–70.2% (+0.8) Gameweek 4 · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.0%Sky Bet68.5% (+0.5)Bet36568.5% (+0.5)Betfair68.5% (+0.4)Paddy Power68.4% (+0.4)bwin68.4% (+0.4)BetVictor68.3% (+0.3) Gameweek 4 · 40 scored Which Team Will Win68.0%6 bookmakers68.3–68.5% (+0.4) Gameweek 5 · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.4%Sky Bet68.4% (−0.1)bwin68.3% (−0.1)Bet36568.3% (−0.2)Paddy Power68.3% (−0.2)Betfair68.2% (−0.2)BetVictor68.1% (−0.3) Gameweek 5 · 50 scored Which Team Will Win68.4%6 bookmakers68.1–68.4% (−0.2) Gameweek 6 · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.3%William Hill (from gameweek 6)69.8% (+1.5)Betway (from gameweek 6)69.8% (+1.5)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)69.7% (+1.4)Coral (from gameweek 6)69.7% (+1.4)Unibet (from gameweek 6)69.7% (+1.4)Betfred (from gameweek 6)69.6% (+1.3) Gameweek 6 · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.3%Sky Bet68.5% (+0.2)bwin68.5% (+0.2)Bet36568.5% (+0.2)Paddy Power68.4% (+0.1)Betfair68.4% (+0.1)BetVictor68.3% (0.0) Gameweek 6 · 60 scored Which Team Will Win68.3%6 bookmakers69.6–69.8% (+1.4)6 bookmakers68.3–68.5% (+0.2) Gameweek 7 · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win69.5%Betway (from gameweek 6)73.7% (+4.2)Unibet (from gameweek 6)73.6% (+4.1)Coral (from gameweek 6)73.6% (+4.1)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)73.6% (+4.1)William Hill (from gameweek 6)73.6% (+4.0)Betfred (from gameweek 6)73.6% (+4.0) Gameweek 7 · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win69.5%Sky Bet69.8% (+0.2)Bet36569.7% (+0.2)bwin69.7% (+0.2)Paddy Power69.7% (+0.2)Betfair69.6% (+0.1)BetVictor69.6% (+0.1) Gameweek 7 · 69 scored Which Team Will Win69.5%6 bookmakers73.6–73.7% (+4.1)6 bookmakers69.6–69.8% (+0.1)

The running order

Betway 73.7%
Unibet 73.6%
Coral 73.6%
Ladbrokes 73.6%
William Hill 73.6%
Betfred 73.6%
Sky Bet 69.8%
Bet365 69.7%
bwin 69.7%
Paddy Power 69.7%
Betfair 69.6%
BetVictor 69.6%
Which Team Will Win 69.5%

After 7 gameweeks

The space between two lines is the difference in accuracy score at that gameweek. Bookmakers on close figures share a line, shaded across the spread between them. Point at the chart for the scores, or at a group's line for each bookmaker in it. Draws count. Each forecast is scored on every match we hold it for – 69 for us. Our records of William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, Betway and Betfred start at gameweek 6, so their figures rest on 19 matches against our 69. Over those same 19 we scored 72.4%, which is the fair comparison.

Chris Sutton is not in this one – he publishes a scoreline, not probabilities, so there is no forecast to grade. He is on the other tab.

Only 19 matches in so far for the latest arrivals – the gaps between these lines are mostly luck until there are a few hundred.

How close every published probability has run to what actually happened.

Difference in accuracy 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 69 Matches played 6 bookmakers 73.6–73.7% 6 bookmakers 69.6–69.8% Which Team Will Win 69.5% After 1 match · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win95.1%Sky Bet97.1% (+2.1)Paddy Power97.0% (+1.9)BetVictor96.9% (+1.9)Bet36596.6% (+1.6)Betfair96.5% (+1.5)bwin96.2% (+1.2) After 1 match · 1 scored Which Team Will Win95.1%6 bookmakers96.2–97.1% (+1.7) After 2 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win67.1%bwin66.5% (−0.5)Sky Bet66.3% (−0.8)Paddy Power65.6% (−1.5)Bet36565.5% (−1.6)Betfair65.5% (−1.6)BetVictor64.9% (−2.2) After 2 matches · 2 scored Which Team Will Win67.1%6 bookmakers64.9–66.5% (−1.4) After 3 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win71.8%bwin69.7% (−2.0)Sky Bet69.5% (−2.2)Bet36569.2% (−2.6)Betfair69.2% (−2.6)Paddy Power69.0% (−2.7)BetVictor68.8% (−3.0) After 3 matches · 3 scored Which Team Will Win71.8%6 bookmakers68.8–69.7% (−2.5) After 4 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.9%bwin69.3% (+0.4)Betfair69.2% (+0.2)Sky Bet69.1% (+0.2)Bet36569.0% (0.0)Paddy Power68.8% (−0.1)BetVictor68.6% (−0.3) After 4 matches · 4 scored Which Team Will Win68.9%6 bookmakers68.6–69.3% (+0.1) After 5 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win67.5%bwin68.2% (+0.8)Betfair68.0% (+0.6)Bet36567.9% (+0.4)Sky Bet67.9% (+0.4)Paddy Power67.6% (+0.1)BetVictor67.6% (+0.1) After 5 matches · 5 scored Which Team Will Win67.5%6 bookmakers67.6–68.2% (+0.4) After 6 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win69.3%bwin68.8% (−0.5)Betfair68.8% (−0.5)Bet36568.7% (−0.7)Sky Bet68.6% (−0.7)BetVictor68.4% (−0.9)Paddy Power68.4% (−1.0) After 6 matches · 6 scored Which Team Will Win69.3%6 bookmakers68.4–68.8% (−0.7) After 7 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win70.2%bwin69.8% (−0.4)Betfair69.7% (−0.6)Bet36569.7% (−0.6)Sky Bet69.6% (−0.7)BetVictor69.5% (−0.8)Paddy Power69.4% (−0.8) After 7 matches · 7 scored Which Team Will Win70.2%6 bookmakers69.4–69.8% (−0.6) After 8 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win72.7%bwin72.4% (−0.3)Betfair72.3% (−0.3)Bet36572.2% (−0.5)Sky Bet72.1% (−0.6)BetVictor72.1% (−0.6)Paddy Power72.0% (−0.7) After 8 matches · 8 scored Which Team Will Win72.7%6 bookmakers72.0–72.4% (−0.5) After 9 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win71.0%bwin70.5% (−0.5)Bet36570.5% (−0.5)Betfair70.4% (−0.6)Sky Bet70.2% (−0.8)BetVictor70.2% (−0.8)Paddy Power70.1% (−0.9) After 9 matches · 9 scored Which Team Will Win71.0%6 bookmakers70.1–70.5% (−0.7) After 10 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win70.3%Bet36571.5% (+1.2)bwin71.4% (+1.1)Betfair71.4% (+1.1)Sky Bet71.3% (+1.0)BetVictor71.3% (+1.0)Paddy Power71.2% (+0.8) After 10 matches · 10 scored Which Team Will Win70.3%6 bookmakers71.2–71.5% (+1.0) After 11 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win72.0%Bet36572.8% (+0.8)Betfair72.8% (+0.8)bwin72.7% (+0.7)Sky Bet72.7% (+0.7)BetVictor72.6% (+0.6)Paddy Power72.5% (+0.5) After 11 matches · 11 scored Which Team Will Win72.0%6 bookmakers72.5–72.8% (+0.7) After 12 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win70.0%Betfair70.8% (+0.7)Bet36570.7% (+0.7)Sky Bet70.7% (+0.6)bwin70.6% (+0.6)BetVictor70.6% (+0.5)Paddy Power70.5% (+0.5) After 12 matches · 12 scored Which Team Will Win70.0%6 bookmakers70.5–70.8% (+0.6) After 13 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win69.0%Betfair69.8% (+0.8)Bet36569.8% (+0.8)Sky Bet69.8% (+0.8)bwin69.7% (+0.7)BetVictor69.6% (+0.6)Paddy Power69.6% (+0.6) After 13 matches · 13 scored Which Team Will Win69.0%6 bookmakers69.6–69.8% (+0.7) After 14 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.0%Betfair68.7% (+0.7)Bet36568.7% (+0.7)Sky Bet68.6% (+0.6)bwin68.6% (+0.6)BetVictor68.5% (+0.5)Paddy Power68.4% (+0.4) After 14 matches · 14 scored Which Team Will Win68.0%6 bookmakers68.4–68.7% (+0.6) After 15 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.1%Betfair68.5% (+0.3)Bet36568.5% (+0.3)Sky Bet68.4% (+0.2)bwin68.3% (+0.2)BetVictor68.3% (+0.1)Paddy Power68.1% (0.0) After 15 matches · 15 scored Which Team Will Win68.1%6 bookmakers68.1–68.5% (+0.2) After 16 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.4%Bet36569.4% (+1.0)Betfair69.3% (+1.0)Sky Bet69.3% (+0.9)bwin69.2% (+0.9)BetVictor69.1% (+0.8)Paddy Power69.1% (+0.7) After 16 matches · 16 scored Which Team Will Win68.4%6 bookmakers69.1–69.4% (+0.9) After 17 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win67.9%Bet36568.9% (+1.0)Sky Bet68.9% (+1.0)Betfair68.8% (+0.9)bwin68.7% (+0.9)BetVictor68.6% (+0.8)Paddy Power68.6% (+0.8) After 17 matches · 17 scored Which Team Will Win67.9%6 bookmakers68.6–68.9% (+0.9) After 18 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.1%Bet36569.1% (+1.0)Sky Bet69.0% (+0.9)Betfair69.0% (+0.9)bwin69.0% (+0.8)BetVictor68.8% (+0.7)Paddy Power68.8% (+0.7) After 18 matches · 18 scored Which Team Will Win68.1%6 bookmakers68.8–69.1% (+0.8) After 19 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win69.5%Bet36570.3% (+0.9)Betfair70.2% (+0.8)Sky Bet70.2% (+0.7)bwin70.1% (+0.7)BetVictor70.1% (+0.6)Paddy Power70.0% (+0.6) After 19 matches · 19 scored Which Team Will Win69.5%6 bookmakers70.0–70.3% (+0.7) After 20 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win69.9%Bet36571.2% (+1.3)Betfair71.2% (+1.2)Sky Bet71.1% (+1.2)bwin71.0% (+1.1)BetVictor71.0% (+1.1)Paddy Power71.0% (+1.0) After 20 matches · 20 scored Which Team Will Win69.9%6 bookmakers71.0–71.2% (+1.2) After 21 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win70.9%Bet36572.1% (+1.2)Sky Bet72.1% (+1.2)Betfair72.1% (+1.2)BetVictor71.9% (+1.1)Paddy Power71.9% (+1.0)bwin71.9% (+1.0) After 21 matches · 21 scored Which Team Will Win70.9%6 bookmakers71.9–72.1% (+1.1) After 22 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win70.4%Bet36571.5% (+1.1)Sky Bet71.5% (+1.1)Betfair71.4% (+1.0)Paddy Power71.3% (+0.9)BetVictor71.3% (+0.9)bwin71.2% (+0.9) After 22 matches · 22 scored Which Team Will Win70.4%6 bookmakers71.2–71.5% (+1.0) After 23 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win69.8%Bet36570.7% (+0.9)Sky Bet70.7% (+0.9)Betfair70.6% (+0.8)Paddy Power70.5% (+0.7)BetVictor70.4% (+0.6)bwin70.4% (+0.6) After 23 matches · 23 scored Which Team Will Win69.8%6 bookmakers70.4–70.7% (+0.7) After 24 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win69.2%Sky Bet70.2% (+1.0)Bet36570.2% (+1.0)Betfair70.0% (+0.8)Paddy Power70.0% (+0.8)BetVictor69.9% (+0.7)bwin69.9% (+0.7) After 24 matches · 24 scored Which Team Will Win69.2%6 bookmakers69.9–70.2% (+0.8) After 25 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.9%Sky Bet69.9% (+1.0)Bet36569.9% (+1.0)Betfair69.8% (+1.0)Paddy Power69.7% (+0.9)BetVictor69.6% (+0.8)bwin69.6% (+0.7) After 25 matches · 25 scored Which Team Will Win68.9%6 bookmakers69.6–69.9% (+0.9) After 26 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win70.0%Sky Bet70.9% (+1.0)Bet36570.9% (+0.9)Betfair70.9% (+0.9)Paddy Power70.8% (+0.9)BetVictor70.7% (+0.8)bwin70.7% (+0.7) After 26 matches · 26 scored Which Team Will Win70.0%6 bookmakers70.7–70.9% (+0.9) After 27 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win69.5%Sky Bet70.6% (+1.1)Bet36570.5% (+1.1)Betfair70.5% (+1.0)Paddy Power70.5% (+1.0)BetVictor70.3% (+0.9)bwin70.3% (+0.9) After 27 matches · 27 scored Which Team Will Win69.5%6 bookmakers70.3–70.6% (+1.0) After 28 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win69.0%Sky Bet70.1% (+1.1)Bet36570.1% (+1.1)Paddy Power70.0% (+1.0)Betfair70.0% (+1.0)BetVictor69.9% (+0.9)bwin69.9% (+0.9) After 28 matches · 28 scored Which Team Will Win69.0%6 bookmakers69.9–70.1% (+1.0) After 29 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.6%Sky Bet69.7% (+1.2)Bet36569.7% (+1.1)Paddy Power69.6% (+1.1)Betfair69.6% (+1.0)bwin69.5% (+0.9)BetVictor69.5% (+0.9) After 29 matches · 29 scored Which Team Will Win68.6%6 bookmakers69.5–69.7% (+1.0) After 30 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win69.3%Sky Bet70.2% (+0.9)Bet36570.2% (+0.9)Betfair70.1% (+0.8)Paddy Power70.1% (+0.8)bwin70.0% (+0.8)BetVictor70.0% (+0.7) After 30 matches · 30 scored Which Team Will Win69.3%6 bookmakers70.0–70.2% (+0.8) After 31 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.9%Sky Bet70.0% (+1.0)Bet36569.9% (+1.0)Paddy Power69.8% (+0.9)Betfair69.8% (+0.9)BetVictor69.8% (+0.9)bwin69.8% (+0.8) After 31 matches · 31 scored Which Team Will Win68.9%6 bookmakers69.8–70.0% (+0.9) After 32 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.6%Sky Bet69.7% (+1.1)Bet36569.6% (+1.0)Paddy Power69.5% (+1.0)Betfair69.5% (+0.9)bwin69.5% (+0.9)BetVictor69.4% (+0.9) After 32 matches · 32 scored Which Team Will Win68.6%6 bookmakers69.4–69.7% (+1.0) After 33 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win67.9%Sky Bet68.5% (+0.7)Bet36568.5% (+0.6)Paddy Power68.4% (+0.5)Betfair68.4% (+0.5)bwin68.4% (+0.5)BetVictor68.3% (+0.4) After 33 matches · 33 scored Which Team Will Win67.9%6 bookmakers68.3–68.5% (+0.5) After 34 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win67.3%Bet36568.1% (+0.8)Sky Bet68.1% (+0.8)Paddy Power68.0% (+0.6)bwin68.0% (+0.6)Betfair68.0% (+0.6)BetVictor67.8% (+0.5) After 34 matches · 34 scored Which Team Will Win67.3%6 bookmakers67.8–68.1% (+0.7) After 35 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win66.8%Sky Bet67.5% (+0.7)Bet36567.4% (+0.6)Betfair67.3% (+0.5)Paddy Power67.3% (+0.5)bwin67.3% (+0.5)BetVictor67.2% (+0.4) After 35 matches · 35 scored Which Team Will Win66.8%6 bookmakers67.2–67.5% (+0.5) After 36 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win66.6%Sky Bet67.2% (+0.6)Bet36567.2% (+0.6)Betfair67.1% (+0.5)bwin67.1% (+0.5)Paddy Power67.1% (+0.5)BetVictor66.9% (+0.3) After 36 matches · 36 scored Which Team Will Win66.6%6 bookmakers66.9–67.2% (+0.5) After 37 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win67.2%Sky Bet67.8% (+0.6)Bet36567.8% (+0.6)Betfair67.7% (+0.5)Paddy Power67.7% (+0.5)bwin67.7% (+0.5)BetVictor67.6% (+0.4) After 37 matches · 37 scored Which Team Will Win67.2%6 bookmakers67.6–67.8% (+0.5) After 38 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win67.6%Sky Bet68.2% (+0.6)Bet36568.2% (+0.6)Betfair68.1% (+0.5)Paddy Power68.1% (+0.5)bwin68.1% (+0.5)BetVictor68.0% (+0.4) After 38 matches · 38 scored Which Team Will Win67.6%6 bookmakers68.0–68.2% (+0.5) After 39 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win67.9%Sky Bet68.4% (+0.6)Bet36568.4% (+0.5)Betfair68.4% (+0.5)Paddy Power68.3% (+0.4)bwin68.3% (+0.4)BetVictor68.2% (+0.3) After 39 matches · 39 scored Which Team Will Win67.9%6 bookmakers68.2–68.4% (+0.5) After 40 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.0%Sky Bet68.5% (+0.5)Bet36568.5% (+0.5)Betfair68.5% (+0.4)Paddy Power68.4% (+0.4)bwin68.4% (+0.4)BetVictor68.3% (+0.3) After 40 matches · 40 scored Which Team Will Win68.0%6 bookmakers68.3–68.5% (+0.4) After 41 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.1%Sky Bet68.5% (+0.5)Bet36568.5% (+0.4)Betfair68.5% (+0.4)Paddy Power68.4% (+0.3)bwin68.4% (+0.3)BetVictor68.3% (+0.2) After 41 matches · 41 scored Which Team Will Win68.1%6 bookmakers68.3–68.5% (+0.4) After 42 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.2%Sky Bet68.3% (+0.1)Bet36568.3% (+0.1)Betfair68.2% (0.0)bwin68.2% (0.0)Paddy Power68.2% (0.0)BetVictor68.1% (−0.1) After 42 matches · 42 scored Which Team Will Win68.2%6 bookmakers68.1–68.3% (0.0) After 43 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win67.9%Sky Bet67.9% (0.0)Bet36567.8% (−0.1)bwin67.8% (−0.1)Betfair67.8% (−0.1)Paddy Power67.7% (−0.2)BetVictor67.6% (−0.2) After 43 matches · 43 scored Which Team Will Win67.9%6 bookmakers67.6–67.9% (−0.1) After 44 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.4%Sky Bet68.2% (−0.1)Bet36568.2% (−0.2)bwin68.2% (−0.2)Betfair68.1% (−0.2)Paddy Power68.1% (−0.3)BetVictor68.0% (−0.4) After 44 matches · 44 scored Which Team Will Win68.4%6 bookmakers68.0–68.2% (−0.2) After 45 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.8%Sky Bet68.6% (−0.2)Bet36568.6% (−0.2)bwin68.6% (−0.2)Betfair68.6% (−0.2)Paddy Power68.5% (−0.3)BetVictor68.5% (−0.3) After 45 matches · 45 scored Which Team Will Win68.8%6 bookmakers68.5–68.6% (−0.2) After 46 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.3%Sky Bet68.1% (−0.2)bwin68.1% (−0.2)Bet36568.1% (−0.2)Betfair68.1% (−0.2)Paddy Power68.0% (−0.3)BetVictor67.9% (−0.4) After 46 matches · 46 scored Which Team Will Win68.3%6 bookmakers67.9–68.1% (−0.2) After 47 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.0%Sky Bet67.9% (−0.2)bwin67.8% (−0.2)Bet36567.8% (−0.3)Paddy Power67.7% (−0.3)Betfair67.7% (−0.3)BetVictor67.6% (−0.4) After 47 matches · 47 scored Which Team Will Win68.0%6 bookmakers67.6–67.9% (−0.3) After 48 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.6%Sky Bet68.4% (−0.2)bwin68.4% (−0.2)Bet36568.3% (−0.3)Betfair68.3% (−0.3)Paddy Power68.3% (−0.3)BetVictor68.2% (−0.4) After 48 matches · 48 scored Which Team Will Win68.6%6 bookmakers68.2–68.4% (−0.3) After 49 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.6%Sky Bet68.6% (0.0)bwin68.6% (−0.1)Bet36568.5% (−0.1)Paddy Power68.5% (−0.2)Betfair68.5% (−0.2)BetVictor68.4% (−0.3) After 49 matches · 49 scored Which Team Will Win68.6%6 bookmakers68.4–68.6% (−0.1) After 50 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.4%Sky Bet68.4% (−0.1)bwin68.3% (−0.1)Bet36568.3% (−0.2)Paddy Power68.3% (−0.2)Betfair68.2% (−0.2)BetVictor68.1% (−0.3) After 50 matches · 50 scored Which Team Will Win68.4%6 bookmakers68.1–68.4% (−0.2) After 51 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.9%Betfred (from gameweek 6)92.2% (+23.3)Betway (from gameweek 6)92.1% (+23.2)Unibet (from gameweek 6)91.8% (+22.9)William Hill (from gameweek 6)91.4% (+22.5)Coral (from gameweek 6)91.4% (+22.5)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)91.1% (+22.2) After 51 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.9%Sky Bet68.9% (−0.1)bwin68.8% (−0.1)Bet36568.8% (−0.2)Paddy Power68.7% (−0.2)Betfair68.7% (−0.2)BetVictor68.6% (−0.3) After 51 matches · 51 scored Which Team Will Win68.9%6 bookmakers91.1–92.2% (+22.8)6 bookmakers68.6–68.9% (−0.2) After 52 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.7%William Hill (from gameweek 6)76.2% (+7.5)Betway (from gameweek 6)75.8% (+7.1)Unibet (from gameweek 6)75.8% (+7.1)Betfred (from gameweek 6)75.7% (+7.0)Coral (from gameweek 6)75.5% (+6.7)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)75.4% (+6.7) After 52 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.7%Sky Bet68.7% (−0.1)bwin68.6% (−0.1)Bet36568.6% (−0.2)Paddy Power68.6% (−0.2)Betfair68.5% (−0.2)BetVictor68.4% (−0.3) After 52 matches · 52 scored Which Team Will Win68.7%6 bookmakers75.4–76.2% (+7.0)6 bookmakers68.4–68.7% (−0.2) After 53 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.8%William Hill (from gameweek 6)79.3% (+10.5)Coral (from gameweek 6)79.0% (+10.3)Unibet (from gameweek 6)79.0% (+10.2)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)79.0% (+10.2)Betway (from gameweek 6)78.9% (+10.1)Betfred (from gameweek 6)78.9% (+10.1) After 53 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.8%Sky Bet69.0% (+0.2)bwin69.0% (+0.2)Bet36568.9% (+0.1)Paddy Power68.9% (+0.1)Betfair68.9% (+0.1)BetVictor68.8% (0.0) After 53 matches · 53 scored Which Team Will Win68.8%6 bookmakers78.9–79.3% (+10.2)6 bookmakers68.8–69.0% (+0.1) After 54 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.7%William Hill (from gameweek 6)76.6% (+7.9)Betfred (from gameweek 6)76.4% (+7.7)Unibet (from gameweek 6)76.2% (+7.6)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)76.2% (+7.5)Coral (from gameweek 6)76.1% (+7.5)Betway (from gameweek 6)76.1% (+7.4) After 54 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.7%Sky Bet69.0% (+0.3)bwin68.9% (+0.3)Bet36568.9% (+0.2)Paddy Power68.9% (+0.2)Betfair68.8% (+0.2)BetVictor68.8% (+0.1) After 54 matches · 54 scored Which Team Will Win68.7%6 bookmakers76.1–76.6% (+7.6)6 bookmakers68.8–69.0% (+0.2) After 55 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.8%William Hill (from gameweek 6)76.1% (+7.3)Betfred (from gameweek 6)75.9% (+7.1)Unibet (from gameweek 6)75.7% (+6.9)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)75.7% (+6.9)Coral (from gameweek 6)75.6% (+6.8)Betway (from gameweek 6)75.6% (+6.8) After 55 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.8%Sky Bet69.1% (+0.3)bwin69.0% (+0.2)Bet36569.0% (+0.2)Paddy Power69.0% (+0.2)Betfair68.9% (+0.1)BetVictor68.9% (+0.1) After 55 matches · 55 scored Which Team Will Win68.8%6 bookmakers75.6–76.1% (+7.0)6 bookmakers68.9–69.1% (+0.2) After 56 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.4%William Hill (from gameweek 6)72.3% (+3.9)Unibet (from gameweek 6)71.9% (+3.5)Betfred (from gameweek 6)71.9% (+3.5)Betway (from gameweek 6)71.7% (+3.3)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)71.7% (+3.3)Coral (from gameweek 6)71.7% (+3.3) After 56 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.4%Sky Bet68.8% (+0.4)bwin68.7% (+0.3)Bet36568.7% (+0.3)Paddy Power68.7% (+0.3)Betfair68.6% (+0.2)BetVictor68.5% (+0.2) After 56 matches · 56 scored Which Team Will Win68.4%6 bookmakers71.7–72.3% (+3.5)6 bookmakers68.5–68.8% (+0.3) After 57 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.4%William Hill (from gameweek 6)71.5% (+3.1)Betfred (from gameweek 6)71.5% (+3.0)Coral (from gameweek 6)71.3% (+2.9)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)71.3% (+2.9)Unibet (from gameweek 6)71.2% (+2.7)Betway (from gameweek 6)71.1% (+2.7) After 57 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.4%Sky Bet68.8% (+0.3)bwin68.7% (+0.3)Bet36568.7% (+0.3)Paddy Power68.7% (+0.2)Betfair68.6% (+0.2)BetVictor68.6% (+0.1) After 57 matches · 57 scored Which Team Will Win68.4%6 bookmakers71.1–71.5% (+2.9)6 bookmakers68.6–68.8% (+0.2) After 58 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.3%William Hill (from gameweek 6)70.2% (+1.9)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)70.0% (+1.7)Coral (from gameweek 6)70.0% (+1.7)Betfred (from gameweek 6)69.9% (+1.6)Unibet (from gameweek 6)69.9% (+1.6)Betway (from gameweek 6)69.8% (+1.6) After 58 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.3%Sky Bet68.6% (+0.4)bwin68.6% (+0.3)Bet36568.5% (+0.3)Paddy Power68.5% (+0.3)Betfair68.5% (+0.2)BetVictor68.4% (+0.1) After 58 matches · 58 scored Which Team Will Win68.3%6 bookmakers69.8–70.2% (+1.7)6 bookmakers68.4–68.6% (+0.3) After 59 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.4%William Hill (from gameweek 6)70.6% (+2.2)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)70.5% (+2.1)Betway (from gameweek 6)70.4% (+2.0)Betfred (from gameweek 6)70.4% (+2.0)Unibet (from gameweek 6)70.4% (+2.0)Coral (from gameweek 6)70.4% (+2.0) After 59 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.4%Sky Bet68.7% (+0.3)bwin68.6% (+0.2)Bet36568.6% (+0.2)Paddy Power68.6% (+0.2)Betfair68.5% (+0.1)BetVictor68.5% (0.0) After 59 matches · 59 scored Which Team Will Win68.4%6 bookmakers70.4–70.6% (+2.0)6 bookmakers68.5–68.7% (+0.2) After 60 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.3%William Hill (from gameweek 6)69.8% (+1.5)Betway (from gameweek 6)69.8% (+1.5)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)69.7% (+1.4)Coral (from gameweek 6)69.7% (+1.4)Unibet (from gameweek 6)69.7% (+1.4)Betfred (from gameweek 6)69.6% (+1.3) After 60 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.3%Sky Bet68.5% (+0.2)bwin68.5% (+0.2)Bet36568.5% (+0.2)Paddy Power68.4% (+0.1)Betfair68.4% (+0.1)BetVictor68.3% (0.0) After 60 matches · 60 scored Which Team Will Win68.3%6 bookmakers69.6–69.8% (+1.4)6 bookmakers68.3–68.5% (+0.2) After 61 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.2%William Hill (from gameweek 6)70.4% (+2.1)Betway (from gameweek 6)70.4% (+2.1)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)70.3% (+2.1)Coral (from gameweek 6)70.3% (+2.0)Betfred (from gameweek 6)70.2% (+2.0)Unibet (from gameweek 6)70.2% (+2.0) After 61 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.2%Sky Bet68.7% (+0.4)bwin68.6% (+0.4)Bet36568.6% (+0.4)Paddy Power68.6% (+0.3)Betfair68.5% (+0.3)BetVictor68.5% (+0.2) After 61 matches · 61 scored Which Team Will Win68.2%6 bookmakers70.2–70.4% (+2.1)6 bookmakers68.5–68.7% (+0.3) After 62 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.3%William Hill (from gameweek 6)70.1% (+1.8)Betway (from gameweek 6)70.1% (+1.8)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)70.1% (+1.8)Coral (from gameweek 6)70.0% (+1.7)Unibet (from gameweek 6)70.0% (+1.7)Betfred (from gameweek 6)70.0% (+1.7) After 62 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.3%Sky Bet68.6% (+0.3)bwin68.6% (+0.3)Bet36568.6% (+0.2)Paddy Power68.5% (+0.2)Betfair68.5% (+0.2)BetVictor68.5% (+0.1) After 62 matches · 62 scored Which Team Will Win68.3%6 bookmakers70.0–70.1% (+1.7)6 bookmakers68.5–68.6% (+0.2) After 63 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.6%Betway (from gameweek 6)71.3% (+2.7)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)71.2% (+2.7)William Hill (from gameweek 6)71.2% (+2.7)Coral (from gameweek 6)71.2% (+2.6)Unibet (from gameweek 6)71.2% (+2.6)Betfred (from gameweek 6)71.1% (+2.6) After 63 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.6%Sky Bet68.9% (+0.3)bwin68.8% (+0.3)Bet36568.8% (+0.3)Paddy Power68.8% (+0.2)Betfair68.8% (+0.2)BetVictor68.7% (+0.2) After 63 matches · 63 scored Which Team Will Win68.6%6 bookmakers71.1–71.3% (+2.7)6 bookmakers68.7–68.9% (+0.3) After 64 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win69.0%Betway (from gameweek 6)73.0% (+4.0)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)73.0% (+4.0)Unibet (from gameweek 6)73.0% (+4.0)Coral (from gameweek 6)73.0% (+3.9)William Hill (from gameweek 6)72.9% (+3.9)Betfred (from gameweek 6)72.9% (+3.9) After 64 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win69.0%Sky Bet69.3% (+0.3)bwin69.3% (+0.3)Bet36569.3% (+0.2)Paddy Power69.2% (+0.2)Betfair69.2% (+0.2)BetVictor69.1% (+0.1) After 64 matches · 64 scored Which Team Will Win69.0%6 bookmakers72.9–73.0% (+4.0)6 bookmakers69.1–69.3% (+0.2) After 65 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.9%Betway (from gameweek 6)72.5% (+3.5)Unibet (from gameweek 6)72.4% (+3.5)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)72.4% (+3.5)William Hill (from gameweek 6)72.4% (+3.5)Coral (from gameweek 6)72.4% (+3.4)Betfred (from gameweek 6)72.3% (+3.4) After 65 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win68.9%Sky Bet69.2% (+0.3)bwin69.2% (+0.3)Bet36569.2% (+0.3)Paddy Power69.2% (+0.2)Betfair69.1% (+0.2)BetVictor69.1% (+0.2) After 65 matches · 65 scored Which Team Will Win68.9%6 bookmakers72.3–72.5% (+3.5)6 bookmakers69.1–69.2% (+0.2) After 66 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win69.2%Betway (from gameweek 6)72.8% (+3.6)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)72.7% (+3.5)Unibet (from gameweek 6)72.7% (+3.5)William Hill (from gameweek 6)72.7% (+3.5)Coral (from gameweek 6)72.7% (+3.5)Betfred (from gameweek 6)72.6% (+3.4) After 66 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win69.2%Sky Bet69.4% (+0.2)bwin69.3% (+0.2)Bet36569.3% (+0.2)Paddy Power69.3% (+0.1)Betfair69.3% (+0.1)BetVictor69.2% (+0.1) After 66 matches · 66 scored Which Team Will Win69.2%6 bookmakers72.6–72.8% (+3.5)6 bookmakers69.2–69.4% (+0.1) After 67 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win69.4%Betway (from gameweek 6)73.8% (+4.3)Unibet (from gameweek 6)73.7% (+4.3)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)73.7% (+4.3)Coral (from gameweek 6)73.7% (+4.3)William Hill (from gameweek 6)73.7% (+4.2)Betfred (from gameweek 6)73.6% (+4.2) After 67 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win69.4%Sky Bet69.7% (+0.2)bwin69.6% (+0.2)Bet36569.6% (+0.2)Paddy Power69.6% (+0.2)Betfair69.5% (+0.1)BetVictor69.5% (+0.1) After 67 matches · 67 scored Which Team Will Win69.4%6 bookmakers73.6–73.8% (+4.3)6 bookmakers69.5–69.7% (+0.2) After 68 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win69.2%Betway (from gameweek 6)73.0% (+3.7)William Hill (from gameweek 6)72.9% (+3.6)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)72.9% (+3.6)Unibet (from gameweek 6)72.9% (+3.6)Coral (from gameweek 6)72.9% (+3.6)Betfred (from gameweek 6)72.8% (+3.5) After 68 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win69.2%Sky Bet69.5% (+0.3)Bet36569.5% (+0.2)bwin69.5% (+0.2)Paddy Power69.5% (+0.2)Betfair69.4% (+0.1)BetVictor69.4% (+0.1) After 68 matches · 68 scored Which Team Will Win69.2%6 bookmakers72.8–73.0% (+3.6)6 bookmakers69.4–69.5% (+0.2) After 69 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win69.5%Betway (from gameweek 6)73.7% (+4.2)Unibet (from gameweek 6)73.6% (+4.1)Coral (from gameweek 6)73.6% (+4.1)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)73.6% (+4.1)William Hill (from gameweek 6)73.6% (+4.0)Betfred (from gameweek 6)73.6% (+4.0) After 69 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win69.5%Sky Bet69.8% (+0.2)Bet36569.7% (+0.2)bwin69.7% (+0.2)Paddy Power69.7% (+0.2)Betfair69.6% (+0.1)BetVictor69.6% (+0.1) After 69 matches · 69 scored Which Team Will Win69.5%6 bookmakers73.6–73.7% (+4.1)6 bookmakers69.6–69.8% (+0.1)

The running order

Betway 73.7%
Unibet 73.6%
Coral 73.6%
Ladbrokes 73.6%
William Hill 73.6%
Betfred 73.6%
Sky Bet 69.8%
Bet365 69.7%
bwin 69.7%
Paddy Power 69.7%
Betfair 69.6%
BetVictor 69.6%
Which Team Will Win 69.5%

After 69 matches

The space between two lines is the difference in accuracy score at that match. Bookmakers on close figures share a line, shaded across the spread between them. Point at the chart for the scores, or at a group's line for each bookmaker in it. Draws count. Each forecast is scored on every match we hold it for – 69 for us. Our records of William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, Betway and Betfred start at gameweek 6, so their figures rest on 19 matches against our 69. Over those same 19 we scored 72.4%, which is the fair comparison.

Chris Sutton is not in this one – he publishes a scoreline, not probabilities, so there is no forecast to grade. He is on the other tab.

Only 19 matches in so far for the latest arrivals – the gaps between these lines are mostly luck until there are a few hundred.

How close every published probability has run to what actually happened.

Difference in accuracy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Gameweek Bookmakers, average 69.7% Which Team Will Win 69.5% Gameweek 1 · 10 scored Which Team Will Win70.3%Bookmakers, average71.2% (+0.9) Gameweek 2 · 20 scored Which Team Will Win69.9%Bookmakers, average71.1% (+1.2) Gameweek 3 · 30 scored Which Team Will Win69.3%Bookmakers, average70.2% (+0.9) Gameweek 4 · 40 scored Which Team Will Win68.0%Bookmakers, average68.5% (+0.5) Gameweek 5 · 50 scored Which Team Will Win68.4%Bookmakers, average68.3% (−0.1) Gameweek 6 · 60 scored Which Team Will Win68.3%Bookmakers, average68.5% (+0.2) Gameweek 7 · 69 scored Which Team Will Win69.5%Bookmakers, average69.7% (+0.2)

The running order

Bookmakers, average 69.7%
Which Team Will Win 69.5%

After 7 gameweeks

The space between two lines is the difference in accuracy score at that gameweek. Point at one for the scores themselves. Draws count. Everyone is scored on the same 69 matches.

Chris Sutton is not in this one – he publishes a scoreline, not probabilities, so there is no forecast to grade. He is on the other tab.

How close every published probability has run to what actually happened.

Difference in accuracy 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 69 Matches played Bookmakers, average 69.7% Which Team Will Win 69.5% After 1 match · 1 scored Which Team Will Win95.1%Bookmakers, average96.7% (+1.6) After 2 matches · 2 scored Which Team Will Win67.1%Bookmakers, average65.7% (−1.4) After 3 matches · 3 scored Which Team Will Win71.8%Bookmakers, average68.9% (−2.9) After 4 matches · 4 scored Which Team Will Win68.9%Bookmakers, average68.7% (−0.2) After 5 matches · 5 scored Which Team Will Win67.5%Bookmakers, average67.6% (+0.1) After 6 matches · 6 scored Which Team Will Win69.3%Bookmakers, average68.2% (−1.1) After 7 matches · 7 scored Which Team Will Win70.2%Bookmakers, average69.3% (−1.0) After 8 matches · 8 scored Which Team Will Win72.7%Bookmakers, average71.9% (−0.8) After 9 matches · 9 scored Which Team Will Win71.0%Bookmakers, average70.1% (−0.9) After 10 matches · 10 scored Which Team Will Win70.3%Bookmakers, average71.2% (+0.9) After 11 matches · 11 scored Which Team Will Win72.0%Bookmakers, average72.5% (+0.5) After 12 matches · 12 scored Which Team Will Win70.0%Bookmakers, average70.6% (+0.6) After 13 matches · 13 scored Which Team Will Win69.0%Bookmakers, average69.7% (+0.7) After 14 matches · 14 scored Which Team Will Win68.0%Bookmakers, average68.6% (+0.6) After 15 matches · 15 scored Which Team Will Win68.1%Bookmakers, average68.4% (+0.2) After 16 matches · 16 scored Which Team Will Win68.4%Bookmakers, average69.3% (+0.9) After 17 matches · 17 scored Which Team Will Win67.9%Bookmakers, average68.8% (+0.9) After 18 matches · 18 scored Which Team Will Win68.1%Bookmakers, average69.0% (+0.9) After 19 matches · 19 scored Which Team Will Win69.5%Bookmakers, average70.2% (+0.7) After 20 matches · 20 scored Which Team Will Win69.9%Bookmakers, average71.1% (+1.2) After 21 matches · 21 scored Which Team Will Win70.9%Bookmakers, average72.0% (+1.1) After 22 matches · 22 scored Which Team Will Win70.4%Bookmakers, average71.4% (+1.0) After 23 matches · 23 scored Which Team Will Win69.8%Bookmakers, average70.6% (+0.7) After 24 matches · 24 scored Which Team Will Win69.2%Bookmakers, average70.1% (+0.9) After 25 matches · 25 scored Which Team Will Win68.9%Bookmakers, average69.8% (+0.9) After 26 matches · 26 scored Which Team Will Win70.0%Bookmakers, average70.9% (+0.9) After 27 matches · 27 scored Which Team Will Win69.5%Bookmakers, average70.5% (+1.0) After 28 matches · 28 scored Which Team Will Win69.0%Bookmakers, average70.0% (+1.1) After 29 matches · 29 scored Which Team Will Win68.6%Bookmakers, average69.6% (+1.1) After 30 matches · 30 scored Which Team Will Win69.3%Bookmakers, average70.2% (+0.9) After 31 matches · 31 scored Which Team Will Win68.9%Bookmakers, average69.9% (+1.0) After 32 matches · 32 scored Which Team Will Win68.6%Bookmakers, average69.6% (+1.0) After 33 matches · 33 scored Which Team Will Win67.9%Bookmakers, average68.5% (+0.6) After 34 matches · 34 scored Which Team Will Win67.3%Bookmakers, average68.1% (+0.7) After 35 matches · 35 scored Which Team Will Win66.8%Bookmakers, average67.4% (+0.6) After 36 matches · 36 scored Which Team Will Win66.6%Bookmakers, average67.2% (+0.6) After 37 matches · 37 scored Which Team Will Win67.2%Bookmakers, average67.8% (+0.6) After 38 matches · 38 scored Which Team Will Win67.6%Bookmakers, average68.2% (+0.6) After 39 matches · 39 scored Which Team Will Win67.9%Bookmakers, average68.4% (+0.5) After 40 matches · 40 scored Which Team Will Win68.0%Bookmakers, average68.5% (+0.5) After 41 matches · 41 scored Which Team Will Win68.1%Bookmakers, average68.5% (+0.4) After 42 matches · 42 scored Which Team Will Win68.2%Bookmakers, average68.2% (0.0) After 43 matches · 43 scored Which Team Will Win67.9%Bookmakers, average67.8% (−0.1) After 44 matches · 44 scored Which Team Will Win68.4%Bookmakers, average68.2% (−0.2) After 45 matches · 45 scored Which Team Will Win68.8%Bookmakers, average68.6% (−0.2) After 46 matches · 46 scored Which Team Will Win68.3%Bookmakers, average68.1% (−0.2) After 47 matches · 47 scored Which Team Will Win68.0%Bookmakers, average67.8% (−0.2) After 48 matches · 48 scored Which Team Will Win68.6%Bookmakers, average68.4% (−0.2) After 49 matches · 49 scored Which Team Will Win68.6%Bookmakers, average68.5% (−0.1) After 50 matches · 50 scored Which Team Will Win68.4%Bookmakers, average68.3% (−0.1) After 51 matches · 51 scored Which Team Will Win68.9%Bookmakers, average68.8% (−0.2) After 52 matches · 52 scored Which Team Will Win68.7%Bookmakers, average68.6% (−0.1) After 53 matches · 53 scored Which Team Will Win68.8%Bookmakers, average68.9% (+0.1) After 54 matches · 54 scored Which Team Will Win68.7%Bookmakers, average68.9% (+0.2) After 55 matches · 55 scored Which Team Will Win68.8%Bookmakers, average69.0% (+0.2) After 56 matches · 56 scored Which Team Will Win68.4%Bookmakers, average68.7% (+0.3) After 57 matches · 57 scored Which Team Will Win68.4%Bookmakers, average68.7% (+0.3) After 58 matches · 58 scored Which Team Will Win68.3%Bookmakers, average68.5% (+0.3) After 59 matches · 59 scored Which Team Will Win68.4%Bookmakers, average68.6% (+0.2) After 60 matches · 60 scored Which Team Will Win68.3%Bookmakers, average68.5% (+0.2) After 61 matches · 61 scored Which Team Will Win68.2%Bookmakers, average68.6% (+0.4) After 62 matches · 62 scored Which Team Will Win68.3%Bookmakers, average68.6% (+0.2) After 63 matches · 63 scored Which Team Will Win68.6%Bookmakers, average68.8% (+0.3) After 64 matches · 64 scored Which Team Will Win69.0%Bookmakers, average69.2% (+0.2) After 65 matches · 65 scored Which Team Will Win68.9%Bookmakers, average69.2% (+0.2) After 66 matches · 66 scored Which Team Will Win69.2%Bookmakers, average69.3% (+0.1) After 67 matches · 67 scored Which Team Will Win69.4%Bookmakers, average69.6% (+0.2) After 68 matches · 68 scored Which Team Will Win69.2%Bookmakers, average69.4% (+0.2) After 69 matches · 69 scored Which Team Will Win69.5%Bookmakers, average69.7% (+0.2)

The running order

Bookmakers, average 69.7%
Which Team Will Win 69.5%

After 69 matches

The space between two lines is the difference in accuracy score at that match. Point at one for the scores themselves. Draws count. Everyone is scored on the same 69 matches.

Chris Sutton is not in this one – he publishes a scoreline, not probabilities, so there is no forecast to grade. He is on the other tab.

The percentage of calls that have named the winner, gameweek by gameweek.

Difference in strike rate 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Gameweek Which Team Will Win 71% 2 bookmakers 67% 6 bookmakers 67% 4 bookmakers 65% Chris Sutton (BBC) 51% Gameweek 1 · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win5/9 · 56%bwin6/9 · 67% (+11.1)BetVictor6/9 · 67% (+11.1) Gameweek 1 · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win5/9 · 56%Bet3656/9 · 67% (+11.1)Paddy Power6/9 · 67% (+11.1)Sky Bet6/9 · 67% (+11.1)Betfair6/9 · 67% (+11.1) Gameweek 1 · 9 scored Which Team Will Win5/9 · 56%2 bookmakers67% (+11.1)4 bookmakers67% (+11.1)Chris Sutton (BBC)4/9 · 44% (−11.1) Gameweek 2 · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win11/16 · 69%bwin11/16 · 69% (0.0)BetVictor11/16 · 69% (0.0) Gameweek 2 · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win11/16 · 69%Bet36511/16 · 69% (0.0)Paddy Power11/16 · 69% (0.0)Sky Bet11/16 · 69% (0.0)Betfair11/16 · 69% (0.0) Gameweek 2 · 16 scored Which Team Will Win11/16 · 69%2 bookmakers69% (0.0)4 bookmakers69% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)9/16 · 56% (−12.5) Gameweek 3 · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win14/20 · 70%bwin14/20 · 70% (0.0)BetVictor14/20 · 70% (0.0) Gameweek 3 · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win14/20 · 70%Bet36514/20 · 70% (0.0)Paddy Power14/20 · 70% (0.0)Sky Bet14/20 · 70% (0.0)Betfair14/20 · 70% (0.0) Gameweek 3 · 20 scored Which Team Will Win14/20 · 70%2 bookmakers70% (0.0)4 bookmakers70% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)12/20 · 60% (−10.0) Gameweek 4 · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win18/26 · 69%bwin18/26 · 69% (0.0)BetVictor18/26 · 69% (0.0) Gameweek 4 · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win18/26 · 69%Bet36518/26 · 69% (0.0)Paddy Power18/26 · 69% (0.0)Sky Bet18/26 · 69% (0.0)Betfair18/26 · 69% (0.0) Gameweek 4 · 26 scored Which Team Will Win18/26 · 69%2 bookmakers69% (0.0)4 bookmakers69% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)14/26 · 54% (−15.4) Gameweek 5 · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win24/34 · 71%bwin22/34 · 65% (−5.9)BetVictor22/34 · 65% (−5.9) Gameweek 5 · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win24/34 · 71%Bet36522/34 · 65% (−5.9)Paddy Power22/34 · 65% (−5.9)Sky Bet22/34 · 65% (−5.9)Betfair22/34 · 65% (−5.9) Gameweek 5 · 34 scored Which Team Will Win24/34 · 71%2 bookmakers65% (−5.9)4 bookmakers65% (−5.9)Chris Sutton (BBC)17/34 · 50% (−20.6) Gameweek 6 · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win29/41 · 71%bwin27/41 · 66% (−4.9)BetVictor27/41 · 66% (−4.9) Gameweek 6 · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win29/41 · 71%William Hill (from gameweek 6)4/7 · 57% (−13.6)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)4/7 · 57% (−13.6)Coral (from gameweek 6)4/7 · 57% (−13.6)Unibet (from gameweek 6)4/7 · 57% (−13.6)Betway (from gameweek 6)4/7 · 57% (−13.6)Betfred (from gameweek 6)4/7 · 57% (−13.6) Gameweek 6 · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win29/41 · 71%Bet36526/41 · 63% (−7.3)Paddy Power26/41 · 63% (−7.3)Sky Bet26/41 · 63% (−7.3)Betfair26/41 · 63% (−7.3) Gameweek 6 · 41 scored Which Team Will Win29/41 · 71%2 bookmakers66% (−4.9)4 bookmakers63% (−7.3)6 bookmakers57% (−13.6)Chris Sutton (BBC)20/41 · 49% (−22.0) Gameweek 7 · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win35/49 · 71%bwin33/49 · 67% (−4.1)BetVictor33/49 · 67% (−4.1) Gameweek 7 · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win35/49 · 71%William Hill (from gameweek 6)10/15 · 67% (−4.8)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)10/15 · 67% (−4.8)Coral (from gameweek 6)10/15 · 67% (−4.8)Unibet (from gameweek 6)10/15 · 67% (−4.8)Betway (from gameweek 6)10/15 · 67% (−4.8)Betfred (from gameweek 6)10/15 · 67% (−4.8) Gameweek 7 · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win35/49 · 71%Bet36532/49 · 65% (−6.1)Paddy Power32/49 · 65% (−6.1)Sky Bet32/49 · 65% (−6.1)Betfair32/49 · 65% (−6.1) Gameweek 7 · 49 scored Which Team Will Win35/49 · 71%2 bookmakers67% (−4.1)6 bookmakers67% (−4.8)4 bookmakers65% (−6.1)Chris Sutton (BBC)25/49 · 51% (−20.4)

The running order

Which Team Will Win 71%
bwin 67%
BetVictor 67%
William Hill 67%
Ladbrokes 67%
Coral 67%
Unibet 67%
Betway 67%
Betfred 67%
Bet365 65%
Paddy Power 65%
Sky Bet 65%
Betfair 65%
Chris Sutton (BBC) 51%

After 7 gameweeks

The space between two lines is the difference in strike rate at that gameweek. Bookmakers on close figures share a line, shaded across the spread between them. Point at the chart for the rates, or at a group's line for each bookmaker in it. Drawn matches are left out. Each forecast is scored on every match we hold it for – 49 for us. Our records of William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, Betway and Betfred start at gameweek 6, so their figures rest on 15 matches against our 49. Over those same 15 we called 73%, which is the fair comparison.

Only 15 matches in so far for the latest arrivals – the gaps between these lines are mostly luck until there are a few hundred.

The percentage of calls that have named the winner, match by match.

Difference in strike rate 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 49 Matches played Which Team Will Win 71% 2 bookmakers 67% 6 bookmakers 67% 4 bookmakers 65% Chris Sutton (BBC) 51% After 1 match · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win1/1 · 100%bwin1/1 · 100% (0.0)BetVictor1/1 · 100% (0.0) After 1 match · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win1/1 · 100%Bet3651/1 · 100% (0.0)Paddy Power1/1 · 100% (0.0)Sky Bet1/1 · 100% (0.0)Betfair1/1 · 100% (0.0) After 1 match · 1 scored Which Team Will Win1/1 · 100%Chris Sutton (BBC)1/1 · 100% (0.0)2 bookmakers100% (0.0)4 bookmakers100% (0.0) After 2 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win1/2 · 50%bwin1/2 · 50% (0.0)BetVictor1/2 · 50% (0.0) After 2 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win1/2 · 50%Bet3651/2 · 50% (0.0)Paddy Power1/2 · 50% (0.0)Sky Bet1/2 · 50% (0.0)Betfair1/2 · 50% (0.0) After 2 matches · 2 scored Which Team Will Win1/2 · 50%Chris Sutton (BBC)1/2 · 50% (0.0)2 bookmakers50% (0.0)4 bookmakers50% (0.0) After 3 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win2/3 · 67%bwin2/3 · 67% (0.0)BetVictor2/3 · 67% (0.0) After 3 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win2/3 · 67%Bet3652/3 · 67% (0.0)Paddy Power2/3 · 67% (0.0)Sky Bet2/3 · 67% (0.0)Betfair2/3 · 67% (0.0) After 3 matches · 3 scored Which Team Will Win2/3 · 67%Chris Sutton (BBC)2/3 · 67% (0.0)2 bookmakers67% (0.0)4 bookmakers67% (0.0) After 4 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win2/4 · 50%bwin2/4 · 50% (0.0)BetVictor2/4 · 50% (0.0) After 4 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win2/4 · 50%Bet3652/4 · 50% (0.0)Paddy Power2/4 · 50% (0.0)Sky Bet2/4 · 50% (0.0)Betfair2/4 · 50% (0.0) After 4 matches · 4 scored Which Team Will Win2/4 · 50%Chris Sutton (BBC)2/4 · 50% (0.0)2 bookmakers50% (0.0)4 bookmakers50% (0.0) After 5 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win2/5 · 40%bwin2/5 · 40% (0.0)BetVictor2/5 · 40% (0.0) After 5 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win2/5 · 40%Bet3652/5 · 40% (0.0)Paddy Power2/5 · 40% (0.0)Sky Bet2/5 · 40% (0.0)Betfair2/5 · 40% (0.0) After 5 matches · 5 scored Which Team Will Win2/5 · 40%Chris Sutton (BBC)2/5 · 40% (0.0)2 bookmakers40% (0.0)4 bookmakers40% (0.0) After 6 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win3/6 · 50%bwin3/6 · 50% (0.0)BetVictor3/6 · 50% (0.0) After 6 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win3/6 · 50%Bet3653/6 · 50% (0.0)Paddy Power3/6 · 50% (0.0)Sky Bet3/6 · 50% (0.0)Betfair3/6 · 50% (0.0) After 6 matches · 6 scored Which Team Will Win3/6 · 50%2 bookmakers50% (0.0)4 bookmakers50% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)2/6 · 33% (−16.7) After 7 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win4/7 · 57%bwin4/7 · 57% (0.0)BetVictor4/7 · 57% (0.0) After 7 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win4/7 · 57%Bet3654/7 · 57% (0.0)Paddy Power4/7 · 57% (0.0)Sky Bet4/7 · 57% (0.0)Betfair4/7 · 57% (0.0) After 7 matches · 7 scored Which Team Will Win4/7 · 57%2 bookmakers57% (0.0)4 bookmakers57% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)2/7 · 29% (−28.6) After 8 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win5/8 · 63%bwin5/8 · 63% (0.0)BetVictor5/8 · 63% (0.0) After 8 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win5/8 · 63%Bet3655/8 · 63% (0.0)Paddy Power5/8 · 63% (0.0)Sky Bet5/8 · 63% (0.0)Betfair5/8 · 63% (0.0) After 8 matches · 8 scored Which Team Will Win5/8 · 63%2 bookmakers63% (0.0)4 bookmakers63% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)3/8 · 38% (−25.0) After 9 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win5/9 · 56%bwin6/9 · 67% (+11.1)BetVictor6/9 · 67% (+11.1) After 9 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win5/9 · 56%Bet3656/9 · 67% (+11.1)Paddy Power6/9 · 67% (+11.1)Sky Bet6/9 · 67% (+11.1)Betfair6/9 · 67% (+11.1) After 9 matches · 9 scored Which Team Will Win5/9 · 56%2 bookmakers67% (+11.1)4 bookmakers67% (+11.1)Chris Sutton (BBC)4/9 · 44% (−11.1) After 10 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win6/10 · 60%bwin7/10 · 70% (+10.0)BetVictor7/10 · 70% (+10.0) After 10 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win6/10 · 60%Bet3657/10 · 70% (+10.0)Paddy Power7/10 · 70% (+10.0)Sky Bet7/10 · 70% (+10.0)Betfair7/10 · 70% (+10.0) After 10 matches · 10 scored Which Team Will Win6/10 · 60%2 bookmakers70% (+10.0)4 bookmakers70% (+10.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)5/10 · 50% (−10.0) After 11 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win6/11 · 55%bwin7/11 · 64% (+9.1)BetVictor7/11 · 64% (+9.1) After 11 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win6/11 · 55%Bet3657/11 · 64% (+9.1)Paddy Power7/11 · 64% (+9.1)Sky Bet7/11 · 64% (+9.1)Betfair7/11 · 64% (+9.1) After 11 matches · 11 scored Which Team Will Win6/11 · 55%2 bookmakers64% (+9.1)4 bookmakers64% (+9.1)Chris Sutton (BBC)5/11 · 45% (−9.1) After 12 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win7/12 · 58%bwin7/12 · 58% (0.0)BetVictor7/12 · 58% (0.0) After 12 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win7/12 · 58%Bet3657/12 · 58% (0.0)Paddy Power7/12 · 58% (0.0)Sky Bet7/12 · 58% (0.0)Betfair7/12 · 58% (0.0) After 12 matches · 12 scored Which Team Will Win7/12 · 58%2 bookmakers58% (0.0)4 bookmakers58% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)5/12 · 42% (−16.7) After 13 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win8/13 · 62%bwin8/13 · 62% (0.0)BetVictor8/13 · 62% (0.0) After 13 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win8/13 · 62%Bet3658/13 · 62% (0.0)Paddy Power8/13 · 62% (0.0)Sky Bet8/13 · 62% (0.0)Betfair8/13 · 62% (0.0) After 13 matches · 13 scored Which Team Will Win8/13 · 62%2 bookmakers62% (0.0)4 bookmakers62% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)6/13 · 46% (−15.4) After 14 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win9/14 · 64%bwin9/14 · 64% (0.0)BetVictor9/14 · 64% (0.0) After 14 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win9/14 · 64%Bet3659/14 · 64% (0.0)Paddy Power9/14 · 64% (0.0)Sky Bet9/14 · 64% (0.0)Betfair9/14 · 64% (0.0) After 14 matches · 14 scored Which Team Will Win9/14 · 64%2 bookmakers64% (0.0)4 bookmakers64% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)7/14 · 50% (−14.3) After 15 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win10/15 · 67%bwin10/15 · 67% (0.0)BetVictor10/15 · 67% (0.0) After 15 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win10/15 · 67%Bet36510/15 · 67% (0.0)Paddy Power10/15 · 67% (0.0)Sky Bet10/15 · 67% (0.0)Betfair10/15 · 67% (0.0) After 15 matches · 15 scored Which Team Will Win10/15 · 67%2 bookmakers67% (0.0)4 bookmakers67% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)8/15 · 53% (−13.3) After 16 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win11/16 · 69%bwin11/16 · 69% (0.0)BetVictor11/16 · 69% (0.0) After 16 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win11/16 · 69%Bet36511/16 · 69% (0.0)Paddy Power11/16 · 69% (0.0)Sky Bet11/16 · 69% (0.0)Betfair11/16 · 69% (0.0) After 16 matches · 16 scored Which Team Will Win11/16 · 69%2 bookmakers69% (0.0)4 bookmakers69% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)9/16 · 56% (−12.5) After 17 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win12/17 · 71%bwin12/17 · 71% (0.0)BetVictor12/17 · 71% (0.0) After 17 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win12/17 · 71%Bet36512/17 · 71% (0.0)Paddy Power12/17 · 71% (0.0)Sky Bet12/17 · 71% (0.0)Betfair12/17 · 71% (0.0) After 17 matches · 17 scored Which Team Will Win12/17 · 71%2 bookmakers71% (0.0)4 bookmakers71% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)10/17 · 59% (−11.8) After 18 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win12/18 · 67%bwin12/18 · 67% (0.0)BetVictor12/18 · 67% (0.0) After 18 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win12/18 · 67%Bet36512/18 · 67% (0.0)Paddy Power12/18 · 67% (0.0)Sky Bet12/18 · 67% (0.0)Betfair12/18 · 67% (0.0) After 18 matches · 18 scored Which Team Will Win12/18 · 67%2 bookmakers67% (0.0)4 bookmakers67% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)10/18 · 56% (−11.1) After 19 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win13/19 · 68%bwin13/19 · 68% (0.0)BetVictor13/19 · 68% (0.0) After 19 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win13/19 · 68%Bet36513/19 · 68% (0.0)Paddy Power13/19 · 68% (0.0)Sky Bet13/19 · 68% (0.0)Betfair13/19 · 68% (0.0) After 19 matches · 19 scored Which Team Will Win13/19 · 68%2 bookmakers68% (0.0)4 bookmakers68% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)11/19 · 58% (−10.5) After 20 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win14/20 · 70%bwin14/20 · 70% (0.0)BetVictor14/20 · 70% (0.0) After 20 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win14/20 · 70%Bet36514/20 · 70% (0.0)Paddy Power14/20 · 70% (0.0)Sky Bet14/20 · 70% (0.0)Betfair14/20 · 70% (0.0) After 20 matches · 20 scored Which Team Will Win14/20 · 70%2 bookmakers70% (0.0)4 bookmakers70% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)12/20 · 60% (−10.0) After 21 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win14/21 · 67%bwin14/21 · 67% (0.0)BetVictor14/21 · 67% (0.0) After 21 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win14/21 · 67%Bet36514/21 · 67% (0.0)Paddy Power14/21 · 67% (0.0)Sky Bet14/21 · 67% (0.0)Betfair14/21 · 67% (0.0) After 21 matches · 21 scored Which Team Will Win14/21 · 67%2 bookmakers67% (0.0)4 bookmakers67% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)12/21 · 57% (−9.5) After 22 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win14/22 · 64%bwin14/22 · 64% (0.0)BetVictor14/22 · 64% (0.0) After 22 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win14/22 · 64%Bet36514/22 · 64% (0.0)Paddy Power14/22 · 64% (0.0)Sky Bet14/22 · 64% (0.0)Betfair14/22 · 64% (0.0) After 22 matches · 22 scored Which Team Will Win14/22 · 64%2 bookmakers64% (0.0)4 bookmakers64% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)12/22 · 55% (−9.1) After 23 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win15/23 · 65%bwin15/23 · 65% (0.0)BetVictor15/23 · 65% (0.0) After 23 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win15/23 · 65%Bet36515/23 · 65% (0.0)Paddy Power15/23 · 65% (0.0)Sky Bet15/23 · 65% (0.0)Betfair15/23 · 65% (0.0) After 23 matches · 23 scored Which Team Will Win15/23 · 65%2 bookmakers65% (0.0)4 bookmakers65% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)13/23 · 57% (−8.7) After 24 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win16/24 · 67%bwin16/24 · 67% (0.0)BetVictor16/24 · 67% (0.0) After 24 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win16/24 · 67%Bet36516/24 · 67% (0.0)Paddy Power16/24 · 67% (0.0)Sky Bet16/24 · 67% (0.0)Betfair16/24 · 67% (0.0) After 24 matches · 24 scored Which Team Will Win16/24 · 67%2 bookmakers67% (0.0)4 bookmakers67% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)14/24 · 58% (−8.3) After 25 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win17/25 · 68%bwin17/25 · 68% (0.0)BetVictor17/25 · 68% (0.0) After 25 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win17/25 · 68%Bet36517/25 · 68% (0.0)Paddy Power17/25 · 68% (0.0)Sky Bet17/25 · 68% (0.0)Betfair17/25 · 68% (0.0) After 25 matches · 25 scored Which Team Will Win17/25 · 68%2 bookmakers68% (0.0)4 bookmakers68% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)14/25 · 56% (−12.0) After 26 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win18/26 · 69%bwin18/26 · 69% (0.0)BetVictor18/26 · 69% (0.0) After 26 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win18/26 · 69%Bet36518/26 · 69% (0.0)Paddy Power18/26 · 69% (0.0)Sky Bet18/26 · 69% (0.0)Betfair18/26 · 69% (0.0) After 26 matches · 26 scored Which Team Will Win18/26 · 69%2 bookmakers69% (0.0)4 bookmakers69% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)14/26 · 54% (−15.4) After 27 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win19/27 · 70%bwin18/27 · 67% (−3.7)BetVictor18/27 · 67% (−3.7) After 27 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win19/27 · 70%Bet36518/27 · 67% (−3.7)Paddy Power18/27 · 67% (−3.7)Sky Bet18/27 · 67% (−3.7)Betfair18/27 · 67% (−3.7) After 27 matches · 27 scored Which Team Will Win19/27 · 70%2 bookmakers67% (−3.7)4 bookmakers67% (−3.7)Chris Sutton (BBC)14/27 · 52% (−18.5) After 28 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win20/28 · 71%bwin18/28 · 64% (−7.1)BetVictor18/28 · 64% (−7.1) After 28 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win20/28 · 71%Bet36518/28 · 64% (−7.1)Paddy Power18/28 · 64% (−7.1)Sky Bet18/28 · 64% (−7.1)Betfair18/28 · 64% (−7.1) After 28 matches · 28 scored Which Team Will Win20/28 · 71%2 bookmakers64% (−7.1)4 bookmakers64% (−7.1)Chris Sutton (BBC)15/28 · 54% (−17.9) After 29 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win20/29 · 69%bwin18/29 · 62% (−6.9)BetVictor18/29 · 62% (−6.9) After 29 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win20/29 · 69%Bet36518/29 · 62% (−6.9)Paddy Power18/29 · 62% (−6.9)Sky Bet18/29 · 62% (−6.9)Betfair18/29 · 62% (−6.9) After 29 matches · 29 scored Which Team Will Win20/29 · 69%2 bookmakers62% (−6.9)4 bookmakers62% (−6.9)Chris Sutton (BBC)15/29 · 52% (−17.2) After 30 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win21/30 · 70%bwin19/30 · 63% (−6.7)BetVictor19/30 · 63% (−6.7) After 30 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win21/30 · 70%Bet36519/30 · 63% (−6.7)Paddy Power19/30 · 63% (−6.7)Sky Bet19/30 · 63% (−6.7)Betfair19/30 · 63% (−6.7) After 30 matches · 30 scored Which Team Will Win21/30 · 70%2 bookmakers63% (−6.7)4 bookmakers63% (−6.7)Chris Sutton (BBC)16/30 · 53% (−16.7) After 31 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win22/31 · 71%bwin20/31 · 65% (−6.5)BetVictor20/31 · 65% (−6.5) After 31 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win22/31 · 71%Bet36520/31 · 65% (−6.5)Paddy Power20/31 · 65% (−6.5)Sky Bet20/31 · 65% (−6.5)Betfair20/31 · 65% (−6.5) After 31 matches · 31 scored Which Team Will Win22/31 · 71%2 bookmakers65% (−6.5)4 bookmakers65% (−6.5)Chris Sutton (BBC)16/31 · 52% (−19.4) After 32 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win22/32 · 69%bwin20/32 · 63% (−6.3)BetVictor20/32 · 63% (−6.3) After 32 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win22/32 · 69%Bet36520/32 · 63% (−6.3)Paddy Power20/32 · 63% (−6.3)Sky Bet20/32 · 63% (−6.3)Betfair20/32 · 63% (−6.3) After 32 matches · 32 scored Which Team Will Win22/32 · 69%2 bookmakers63% (−6.3)4 bookmakers63% (−6.3)Chris Sutton (BBC)16/32 · 50% (−18.8) After 33 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win23/33 · 70%bwin21/33 · 64% (−6.1)BetVictor21/33 · 64% (−6.1) After 33 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win23/33 · 70%Bet36521/33 · 64% (−6.1)Paddy Power21/33 · 64% (−6.1)Sky Bet21/33 · 64% (−6.1)Betfair21/33 · 64% (−6.1) After 33 matches · 33 scored Which Team Will Win23/33 · 70%2 bookmakers64% (−6.1)4 bookmakers64% (−6.1)Chris Sutton (BBC)17/33 · 52% (−18.2) After 34 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win24/34 · 71%bwin22/34 · 65% (−5.9)BetVictor22/34 · 65% (−5.9) After 34 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win24/34 · 71%Bet36522/34 · 65% (−5.9)Paddy Power22/34 · 65% (−5.9)Sky Bet22/34 · 65% (−5.9)Betfair22/34 · 65% (−5.9) After 34 matches · 34 scored Which Team Will Win24/34 · 71%2 bookmakers65% (−5.9)4 bookmakers65% (−5.9)Chris Sutton (BBC)17/34 · 50% (−20.6) After 35 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win25/35 · 71%bwin23/35 · 66% (−5.7)BetVictor23/35 · 66% (−5.7) After 35 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win25/35 · 71%William Hill (from gameweek 6)1/1 · 100% (+28.6)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)1/1 · 100% (+28.6)Coral (from gameweek 6)1/1 · 100% (+28.6)Unibet (from gameweek 6)1/1 · 100% (+28.6)Betway (from gameweek 6)1/1 · 100% (+28.6)Betfred (from gameweek 6)1/1 · 100% (+28.6) After 35 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win25/35 · 71%Bet36523/35 · 66% (−5.7)Paddy Power23/35 · 66% (−5.7)Sky Bet23/35 · 66% (−5.7)Betfair23/35 · 66% (−5.7) After 35 matches · 35 scored Which Team Will Win25/35 · 71%6 bookmakers100% (+28.6)2 bookmakers66% (−5.7)4 bookmakers66% (−5.7)Chris Sutton (BBC)18/35 · 51% (−20.0) After 36 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win26/36 · 72%bwin24/36 · 67% (−5.6)BetVictor24/36 · 67% (−5.6) After 36 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win26/36 · 72%William Hill (from gameweek 6)2/2 · 100% (+27.8)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)2/2 · 100% (+27.8)Coral (from gameweek 6)2/2 · 100% (+27.8)Unibet (from gameweek 6)2/2 · 100% (+27.8)Betway (from gameweek 6)2/2 · 100% (+27.8)Betfred (from gameweek 6)2/2 · 100% (+27.8) After 36 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win26/36 · 72%Bet36524/36 · 67% (−5.6)Paddy Power24/36 · 67% (−5.6)Sky Bet24/36 · 67% (−5.6)Betfair24/36 · 67% (−5.6) After 36 matches · 36 scored Which Team Will Win26/36 · 72%6 bookmakers100% (+27.8)2 bookmakers67% (−5.6)4 bookmakers67% (−5.6)Chris Sutton (BBC)19/36 · 53% (−19.4) After 37 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win26/37 · 70%bwin24/37 · 65% (−5.4)BetVictor24/37 · 65% (−5.4) After 37 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win26/37 · 70%William Hill (from gameweek 6)2/3 · 67% (−3.6)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)2/3 · 67% (−3.6)Coral (from gameweek 6)2/3 · 67% (−3.6)Unibet (from gameweek 6)2/3 · 67% (−3.6)Betway (from gameweek 6)2/3 · 67% (−3.6)Betfred (from gameweek 6)2/3 · 67% (−3.6) After 37 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win26/37 · 70%Bet36524/37 · 65% (−5.4)Paddy Power24/37 · 65% (−5.4)Sky Bet24/37 · 65% (−5.4)Betfair24/37 · 65% (−5.4) After 37 matches · 37 scored Which Team Will Win26/37 · 70%6 bookmakers67% (−3.6)2 bookmakers65% (−5.4)4 bookmakers65% (−5.4)Chris Sutton (BBC)19/37 · 51% (−18.9) After 38 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win27/38 · 71%bwin25/38 · 66% (−5.3)BetVictor25/38 · 66% (−5.3) After 38 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win27/38 · 71%William Hill (from gameweek 6)3/4 · 75% (+3.9)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)3/4 · 75% (+3.9)Coral (from gameweek 6)3/4 · 75% (+3.9)Unibet (from gameweek 6)3/4 · 75% (+3.9)Betway (from gameweek 6)3/4 · 75% (+3.9)Betfred (from gameweek 6)3/4 · 75% (+3.9) After 38 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win27/38 · 71%Bet36525/38 · 66% (−5.3)Paddy Power25/38 · 66% (−5.3)Sky Bet25/38 · 66% (−5.3)Betfair25/38 · 66% (−5.3) After 38 matches · 38 scored Which Team Will Win27/38 · 71%6 bookmakers75% (+3.9)2 bookmakers66% (−5.3)4 bookmakers66% (−5.3)Chris Sutton (BBC)19/38 · 50% (−21.1) After 39 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win28/39 · 72%bwin26/39 · 67% (−5.1)BetVictor26/39 · 67% (−5.1) After 39 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win28/39 · 72%William Hill (from gameweek 6)3/5 · 60% (−11.8)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)3/5 · 60% (−11.8)Coral (from gameweek 6)3/5 · 60% (−11.8)Unibet (from gameweek 6)3/5 · 60% (−11.8)Betway (from gameweek 6)3/5 · 60% (−11.8)Betfred (from gameweek 6)3/5 · 60% (−11.8) After 39 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win28/39 · 72%Bet36525/39 · 64% (−7.7)Paddy Power25/39 · 64% (−7.7)Sky Bet25/39 · 64% (−7.7)Betfair25/39 · 64% (−7.7) After 39 matches · 39 scored Which Team Will Win28/39 · 72%2 bookmakers67% (−5.1)4 bookmakers64% (−7.7)6 bookmakers60% (−11.8)Chris Sutton (BBC)19/39 · 49% (−23.1) After 40 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win29/40 · 73%bwin27/40 · 68% (−5.0)BetVictor27/40 · 68% (−5.0) After 40 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win29/40 · 73%William Hill (from gameweek 6)4/6 · 67% (−5.8)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)4/6 · 67% (−5.8)Coral (from gameweek 6)4/6 · 67% (−5.8)Unibet (from gameweek 6)4/6 · 67% (−5.8)Betway (from gameweek 6)4/6 · 67% (−5.8)Betfred (from gameweek 6)4/6 · 67% (−5.8) After 40 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win29/40 · 73%Bet36526/40 · 65% (−7.5)Paddy Power26/40 · 65% (−7.5)Sky Bet26/40 · 65% (−7.5)Betfair26/40 · 65% (−7.5) After 40 matches · 40 scored Which Team Will Win29/40 · 73%2 bookmakers68% (−5.0)6 bookmakers67% (−5.8)4 bookmakers65% (−7.5)Chris Sutton (BBC)20/40 · 50% (−22.5) After 41 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win29/41 · 71%bwin27/41 · 66% (−4.9)BetVictor27/41 · 66% (−4.9) After 41 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win29/41 · 71%William Hill (from gameweek 6)4/7 · 57% (−13.6)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)4/7 · 57% (−13.6)Coral (from gameweek 6)4/7 · 57% (−13.6)Unibet (from gameweek 6)4/7 · 57% (−13.6)Betway (from gameweek 6)4/7 · 57% (−13.6)Betfred (from gameweek 6)4/7 · 57% (−13.6) After 41 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win29/41 · 71%Bet36526/41 · 63% (−7.3)Paddy Power26/41 · 63% (−7.3)Sky Bet26/41 · 63% (−7.3)Betfair26/41 · 63% (−7.3) After 41 matches · 41 scored Which Team Will Win29/41 · 71%2 bookmakers66% (−4.9)4 bookmakers63% (−7.3)6 bookmakers57% (−13.6)Chris Sutton (BBC)20/41 · 49% (−22.0) After 42 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win29/42 · 69%bwin28/42 · 67% (−2.4)BetVictor28/42 · 67% (−2.4) After 42 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win29/42 · 69%William Hill (from gameweek 6)5/8 · 63% (−6.5)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)5/8 · 63% (−6.5)Coral (from gameweek 6)5/8 · 63% (−6.5)Unibet (from gameweek 6)5/8 · 63% (−6.5)Betway (from gameweek 6)5/8 · 63% (−6.5)Betfred (from gameweek 6)5/8 · 63% (−6.5) After 42 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win29/42 · 69%Bet36527/42 · 64% (−4.8)Paddy Power27/42 · 64% (−4.8)Sky Bet27/42 · 64% (−4.8)Betfair27/42 · 64% (−4.8) After 42 matches · 42 scored Which Team Will Win29/42 · 69%2 bookmakers67% (−2.4)4 bookmakers64% (−4.8)6 bookmakers63% (−6.5)Chris Sutton (BBC)20/42 · 48% (−21.4) After 43 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win30/43 · 70%bwin28/43 · 65% (−4.7)BetVictor28/43 · 65% (−4.7) After 43 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win30/43 · 70%William Hill (from gameweek 6)5/9 · 56% (−14.2)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)5/9 · 56% (−14.2)Coral (from gameweek 6)5/9 · 56% (−14.2)Unibet (from gameweek 6)5/9 · 56% (−14.2)Betway (from gameweek 6)5/9 · 56% (−14.2)Betfred (from gameweek 6)5/9 · 56% (−14.2) After 43 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win30/43 · 70%Bet36527/43 · 63% (−7.0)Paddy Power27/43 · 63% (−7.0)Sky Bet27/43 · 63% (−7.0)Betfair27/43 · 63% (−7.0) After 43 matches · 43 scored Which Team Will Win30/43 · 70%2 bookmakers65% (−4.7)4 bookmakers63% (−7.0)6 bookmakers56% (−14.2)Chris Sutton (BBC)20/43 · 47% (−23.3) After 44 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win31/44 · 70%bwin29/44 · 66% (−4.5)BetVictor29/44 · 66% (−4.5) After 44 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win31/44 · 70%William Hill (from gameweek 6)6/10 · 60% (−10.5)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)6/10 · 60% (−10.5)Coral (from gameweek 6)6/10 · 60% (−10.5)Unibet (from gameweek 6)6/10 · 60% (−10.5)Betway (from gameweek 6)6/10 · 60% (−10.5)Betfred (from gameweek 6)6/10 · 60% (−10.5) After 44 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win31/44 · 70%Bet36528/44 · 64% (−6.8)Paddy Power28/44 · 64% (−6.8)Sky Bet28/44 · 64% (−6.8)Betfair28/44 · 64% (−6.8) After 44 matches · 44 scored Which Team Will Win31/44 · 70%2 bookmakers66% (−4.5)4 bookmakers64% (−6.8)6 bookmakers60% (−10.5)Chris Sutton (BBC)21/44 · 48% (−22.7) After 45 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win32/45 · 71%bwin30/45 · 67% (−4.4)BetVictor30/45 · 67% (−4.4) After 45 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win32/45 · 71%William Hill (from gameweek 6)7/11 · 64% (−7.5)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)7/11 · 64% (−7.5)Coral (from gameweek 6)7/11 · 64% (−7.5)Unibet (from gameweek 6)7/11 · 64% (−7.5)Betway (from gameweek 6)7/11 · 64% (−7.5)Betfred (from gameweek 6)7/11 · 64% (−7.5) After 45 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win32/45 · 71%Bet36529/45 · 64% (−6.7)Paddy Power29/45 · 64% (−6.7)Sky Bet29/45 · 64% (−6.7)Betfair29/45 · 64% (−6.7) After 45 matches · 45 scored Which Team Will Win32/45 · 71%2 bookmakers67% (−4.4)4 bookmakers64% (−6.7)6 bookmakers64% (−7.5)Chris Sutton (BBC)22/45 · 49% (−22.2) After 46 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win32/46 · 70%bwin30/46 · 65% (−4.3)BetVictor30/46 · 65% (−4.3) After 46 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win32/46 · 70%William Hill (from gameweek 6)7/12 · 58% (−11.2)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)7/12 · 58% (−11.2)Coral (from gameweek 6)7/12 · 58% (−11.2)Unibet (from gameweek 6)7/12 · 58% (−11.2)Betway (from gameweek 6)7/12 · 58% (−11.2)Betfred (from gameweek 6)7/12 · 58% (−11.2) After 46 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win32/46 · 70%Bet36529/46 · 63% (−6.5)Paddy Power29/46 · 63% (−6.5)Sky Bet29/46 · 63% (−6.5)Betfair29/46 · 63% (−6.5) After 46 matches · 46 scored Which Team Will Win32/46 · 70%2 bookmakers65% (−4.3)4 bookmakers63% (−6.5)6 bookmakers58% (−11.2)Chris Sutton (BBC)23/46 · 50% (−19.6) After 47 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win33/47 · 70%bwin31/47 · 66% (−4.3)BetVictor31/47 · 66% (−4.3) After 47 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win33/47 · 70%William Hill (from gameweek 6)8/13 · 62% (−8.7)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)8/13 · 62% (−8.7)Coral (from gameweek 6)8/13 · 62% (−8.7)Unibet (from gameweek 6)8/13 · 62% (−8.7)Betway (from gameweek 6)8/13 · 62% (−8.7)Betfred (from gameweek 6)8/13 · 62% (−8.7) After 47 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win33/47 · 70%Bet36530/47 · 64% (−6.4)Paddy Power30/47 · 64% (−6.4)Sky Bet30/47 · 64% (−6.4)Betfair30/47 · 64% (−6.4) After 47 matches · 47 scored Which Team Will Win33/47 · 70%2 bookmakers66% (−4.3)4 bookmakers64% (−6.4)6 bookmakers62% (−8.7)Chris Sutton (BBC)23/47 · 49% (−21.3) After 48 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win34/48 · 71%bwin32/48 · 67% (−4.2)BetVictor32/48 · 67% (−4.2) After 48 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win34/48 · 71%William Hill (from gameweek 6)9/14 · 64% (−6.5)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)9/14 · 64% (−6.5)Coral (from gameweek 6)9/14 · 64% (−6.5)Unibet (from gameweek 6)9/14 · 64% (−6.5)Betway (from gameweek 6)9/14 · 64% (−6.5)Betfred (from gameweek 6)9/14 · 64% (−6.5) After 48 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win34/48 · 71%Bet36531/48 · 65% (−6.3)Paddy Power31/48 · 65% (−6.3)Sky Bet31/48 · 65% (−6.3)Betfair31/48 · 65% (−6.3) After 48 matches · 48 scored Which Team Will Win34/48 · 71%2 bookmakers67% (−4.2)4 bookmakers65% (−6.3)6 bookmakers64% (−6.5)Chris Sutton (BBC)24/48 · 50% (−20.8) After 49 matches · 2 bookmakers Which Team Will Win35/49 · 71%bwin33/49 · 67% (−4.1)BetVictor33/49 · 67% (−4.1) After 49 matches · 6 bookmakers Which Team Will Win35/49 · 71%William Hill (from gameweek 6)10/15 · 67% (−4.8)Ladbrokes (from gameweek 6)10/15 · 67% (−4.8)Coral (from gameweek 6)10/15 · 67% (−4.8)Unibet (from gameweek 6)10/15 · 67% (−4.8)Betway (from gameweek 6)10/15 · 67% (−4.8)Betfred (from gameweek 6)10/15 · 67% (−4.8) After 49 matches · 4 bookmakers Which Team Will Win35/49 · 71%Bet36532/49 · 65% (−6.1)Paddy Power32/49 · 65% (−6.1)Sky Bet32/49 · 65% (−6.1)Betfair32/49 · 65% (−6.1) After 49 matches · 49 scored Which Team Will Win35/49 · 71%2 bookmakers67% (−4.1)6 bookmakers67% (−4.8)4 bookmakers65% (−6.1)Chris Sutton (BBC)25/49 · 51% (−20.4)

The running order

Which Team Will Win 71%
bwin 67%
BetVictor 67%
William Hill 67%
Ladbrokes 67%
Coral 67%
Unibet 67%
Betway 67%
Betfred 67%
Bet365 65%
Paddy Power 65%
Sky Bet 65%
Betfair 65%
Chris Sutton (BBC) 51%

After 49 matches

The space between two lines is the difference in strike rate at that match. Bookmakers on close figures share a line, shaded across the spread between them. Point at the chart for the rates, or at a group's line for each bookmaker in it. Drawn matches are left out. Each forecast is scored on every match we hold it for – 49 for us. Our records of William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, Betway and Betfred start at gameweek 6, so their figures rest on 15 matches against our 49. Over those same 15 we called 73%, which is the fair comparison.

Only 15 matches in so far for the latest arrivals – the gaps between these lines are mostly luck until there are a few hundred.

The percentage of calls that have named the winner, gameweek by gameweek.

Difference in strike rate 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Gameweek Which Team Will Win 71% Bookmakers, average 67% Chris Sutton (BBC) 51% Gameweek 1 · 9 scored Which Team Will Win5/9 · 56%Bookmakers, average6/9 · 67% (+11.1)Chris Sutton (BBC)4/9 · 44% (−11.1) Gameweek 2 · 16 scored Which Team Will Win11/16 · 69%Bookmakers, average11/16 · 69% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)9/16 · 56% (−12.5) Gameweek 3 · 20 scored Which Team Will Win14/20 · 70%Bookmakers, average14/20 · 70% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)12/20 · 60% (−10.0) Gameweek 4 · 26 scored Which Team Will Win18/26 · 69%Bookmakers, average18/26 · 69% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)14/26 · 54% (−15.4) Gameweek 5 · 34 scored Which Team Will Win24/34 · 71%Bookmakers, average22/34 · 65% (−5.9)Chris Sutton (BBC)17/34 · 50% (−20.6) Gameweek 6 · 41 scored Which Team Will Win29/41 · 71%Bookmakers, average27/41 · 66% (−4.9)Chris Sutton (BBC)20/41 · 49% (−22.0) Gameweek 7 · 49 scored Which Team Will Win35/49 · 71%Bookmakers, average33/49 · 67% (−4.1)Chris Sutton (BBC)25/49 · 51% (−20.4)

The running order

Which Team Will Win 71%
Bookmakers, average 67%
Chris Sutton (BBC) 51%

After 7 gameweeks

The space between two lines is the difference in strike rate at that gameweek. Point at one for the rates themselves. Drawn matches are left out. Everyone is scored on the same 49 matches.

The percentage of calls that have named the winner, match by match.

Difference in strike rate 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 49 Matches played Which Team Will Win 71% Bookmakers, average 67% Chris Sutton (BBC) 51% After 1 match · 1 scored Which Team Will Win1/1 · 100%Chris Sutton (BBC)1/1 · 100% (0.0)Bookmakers, average1/1 · 100% (0.0) After 2 matches · 2 scored Which Team Will Win1/2 · 50%Chris Sutton (BBC)1/2 · 50% (0.0)Bookmakers, average1/2 · 50% (0.0) After 3 matches · 3 scored Which Team Will Win2/3 · 67%Chris Sutton (BBC)2/3 · 67% (0.0)Bookmakers, average2/3 · 67% (0.0) After 4 matches · 4 scored Which Team Will Win2/4 · 50%Chris Sutton (BBC)2/4 · 50% (0.0)Bookmakers, average2/4 · 50% (0.0) After 5 matches · 5 scored Which Team Will Win2/5 · 40%Chris Sutton (BBC)2/5 · 40% (0.0)Bookmakers, average2/5 · 40% (0.0) After 6 matches · 6 scored Which Team Will Win3/6 · 50%Bookmakers, average3/6 · 50% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)2/6 · 33% (−16.7) After 7 matches · 7 scored Which Team Will Win4/7 · 57%Bookmakers, average4/7 · 57% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)2/7 · 29% (−28.6) After 8 matches · 8 scored Which Team Will Win5/8 · 63%Bookmakers, average5/8 · 63% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)3/8 · 38% (−25.0) After 9 matches · 9 scored Which Team Will Win5/9 · 56%Bookmakers, average6/9 · 67% (+11.1)Chris Sutton (BBC)4/9 · 44% (−11.1) After 10 matches · 10 scored Which Team Will Win6/10 · 60%Bookmakers, average7/10 · 70% (+10.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)5/10 · 50% (−10.0) After 11 matches · 11 scored Which Team Will Win6/11 · 55%Bookmakers, average7/11 · 64% (+9.1)Chris Sutton (BBC)5/11 · 45% (−9.1) After 12 matches · 12 scored Which Team Will Win7/12 · 58%Bookmakers, average7/12 · 58% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)5/12 · 42% (−16.7) After 13 matches · 13 scored Which Team Will Win8/13 · 62%Bookmakers, average8/13 · 62% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)6/13 · 46% (−15.4) After 14 matches · 14 scored Which Team Will Win9/14 · 64%Bookmakers, average9/14 · 64% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)7/14 · 50% (−14.3) After 15 matches · 15 scored Which Team Will Win10/15 · 67%Bookmakers, average10/15 · 67% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)8/15 · 53% (−13.3) After 16 matches · 16 scored Which Team Will Win11/16 · 69%Bookmakers, average11/16 · 69% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)9/16 · 56% (−12.5) After 17 matches · 17 scored Which Team Will Win12/17 · 71%Bookmakers, average12/17 · 71% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)10/17 · 59% (−11.8) After 18 matches · 18 scored Which Team Will Win12/18 · 67%Bookmakers, average12/18 · 67% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)10/18 · 56% (−11.1) After 19 matches · 19 scored Which Team Will Win13/19 · 68%Bookmakers, average13/19 · 68% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)11/19 · 58% (−10.5) After 20 matches · 20 scored Which Team Will Win14/20 · 70%Bookmakers, average14/20 · 70% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)12/20 · 60% (−10.0) After 21 matches · 21 scored Which Team Will Win14/21 · 67%Bookmakers, average14/21 · 67% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)12/21 · 57% (−9.5) After 22 matches · 22 scored Which Team Will Win14/22 · 64%Bookmakers, average14/22 · 64% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)12/22 · 55% (−9.1) After 23 matches · 23 scored Which Team Will Win15/23 · 65%Bookmakers, average15/23 · 65% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)13/23 · 57% (−8.7) After 24 matches · 24 scored Which Team Will Win16/24 · 67%Bookmakers, average16/24 · 67% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)14/24 · 58% (−8.3) After 25 matches · 25 scored Which Team Will Win17/25 · 68%Bookmakers, average17/25 · 68% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)14/25 · 56% (−12.0) After 26 matches · 26 scored Which Team Will Win18/26 · 69%Bookmakers, average18/26 · 69% (0.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)14/26 · 54% (−15.4) After 27 matches · 27 scored Which Team Will Win19/27 · 70%Bookmakers, average18/27 · 67% (−3.7)Chris Sutton (BBC)14/27 · 52% (−18.5) After 28 matches · 28 scored Which Team Will Win20/28 · 71%Bookmakers, average18/28 · 64% (−7.1)Chris Sutton (BBC)15/28 · 54% (−17.9) After 29 matches · 29 scored Which Team Will Win20/29 · 69%Bookmakers, average18/29 · 62% (−6.9)Chris Sutton (BBC)15/29 · 52% (−17.2) After 30 matches · 30 scored Which Team Will Win21/30 · 70%Bookmakers, average19/30 · 63% (−6.7)Chris Sutton (BBC)16/30 · 53% (−16.7) After 31 matches · 31 scored Which Team Will Win22/31 · 71%Bookmakers, average20/31 · 65% (−6.5)Chris Sutton (BBC)16/31 · 52% (−19.4) After 32 matches · 32 scored Which Team Will Win22/32 · 69%Bookmakers, average20/32 · 63% (−6.3)Chris Sutton (BBC)16/32 · 50% (−18.8) After 33 matches · 33 scored Which Team Will Win23/33 · 70%Bookmakers, average21/33 · 64% (−6.1)Chris Sutton (BBC)17/33 · 52% (−18.2) After 34 matches · 34 scored Which Team Will Win24/34 · 71%Bookmakers, average22/34 · 65% (−5.9)Chris Sutton (BBC)17/34 · 50% (−20.6) After 35 matches · 35 scored Which Team Will Win25/35 · 71%Bookmakers, average23/35 · 66% (−5.7)Chris Sutton (BBC)18/35 · 51% (−20.0) After 36 matches · 36 scored Which Team Will Win26/36 · 72%Bookmakers, average24/36 · 67% (−5.6)Chris Sutton (BBC)19/36 · 53% (−19.4) After 37 matches · 37 scored Which Team Will Win26/37 · 70%Bookmakers, average24/37 · 65% (−5.4)Chris Sutton (BBC)19/37 · 51% (−18.9) After 38 matches · 38 scored Which Team Will Win27/38 · 71%Bookmakers, average25/38 · 66% (−5.3)Chris Sutton (BBC)19/38 · 50% (−21.1) After 39 matches · 39 scored Which Team Will Win28/39 · 72%Bookmakers, average26/39 · 67% (−5.1)Chris Sutton (BBC)19/39 · 49% (−23.1) After 40 matches · 40 scored Which Team Will Win29/40 · 73%Bookmakers, average27/40 · 68% (−5.0)Chris Sutton (BBC)20/40 · 50% (−22.5) After 41 matches · 41 scored Which Team Will Win29/41 · 71%Bookmakers, average27/41 · 66% (−4.9)Chris Sutton (BBC)20/41 · 49% (−22.0) After 42 matches · 42 scored Which Team Will Win29/42 · 69%Bookmakers, average28/42 · 67% (−2.4)Chris Sutton (BBC)20/42 · 48% (−21.4) After 43 matches · 43 scored Which Team Will Win30/43 · 70%Bookmakers, average28/43 · 65% (−4.7)Chris Sutton (BBC)20/43 · 47% (−23.3) After 44 matches · 44 scored Which Team Will Win31/44 · 70%Bookmakers, average29/44 · 66% (−4.5)Chris Sutton (BBC)21/44 · 48% (−22.7) After 45 matches · 45 scored Which Team Will Win32/45 · 71%Bookmakers, average30/45 · 67% (−4.4)Chris Sutton (BBC)22/45 · 49% (−22.2) After 46 matches · 46 scored Which Team Will Win32/46 · 70%Bookmakers, average30/46 · 65% (−4.3)Chris Sutton (BBC)23/46 · 50% (−19.6) After 47 matches · 47 scored Which Team Will Win33/47 · 70%Bookmakers, average31/47 · 66% (−4.3)Chris Sutton (BBC)23/47 · 49% (−21.3) After 48 matches · 48 scored Which Team Will Win34/48 · 71%Bookmakers, average32/48 · 67% (−4.2)Chris Sutton (BBC)24/48 · 50% (−20.8) After 49 matches · 49 scored Which Team Will Win35/49 · 71%Bookmakers, average33/49 · 67% (−4.1)Chris Sutton (BBC)25/49 · 51% (−20.4)

The running order

Which Team Will Win 71%
Bookmakers, average 67%
Chris Sutton (BBC) 51%

After 49 matches

The space between two lines is the difference in strike rate at that match. Point at one for the rates themselves. Drawn matches are left out. Everyone is scored on the same 49 matches.

Scored the strict way

The race above asks one question: did we name the winner. This asks a harder one – of every probability we published, how close was it to what happened? Draws count here. Higher is better.

69Predictions scored
69.5%Our accuracy score 100% is perfect · higher is better
69.7%The bookmakers same matches, same measure

We tipped a different side from the bookmakers in 9 of the 69. Across the 69 we gave the results that came in an average of 40%, and they gave them 40%. Being confident and right helps your score; being confident and wrong hurts it.

How this is scored

One question only: when a match had a winner, did we say who?

This is the pub question, and it is the only one that can be asked identically of a model, a bookmaker and a newspaper columnist. It is not the rigorous one: a forecast can name winners well and still be badly calibrated. For that, the accuracy score below grades every probability against every outcome, draws included.

Gameweek7654321

Gameweek 7

  1. EVE v CHE 0–2 Everton win
  2. BRE v LIV 1–2 Liverpool win
  3. FUL v HUL 1–0 Fulham win
  4. MCI v IPS 3–2 Manchester City win
  5. NEW v AVL 0–1 Newcastle United win
  6. BOU v SUN 2–0 Bournemouth win
  7. BHA v CRY 5–0 Brighton & Hove Albion win
  8. LEE v MUN 1–1 Manchester United win
  9. NFO v ARS 0–1 Arsenal win

Gameweek 6

  1. ARS v LEE 2–1 Arsenal win
  2. AVL v BRE 2–2 Aston Villa win
  3. CHE v BOU 5–1 Chelsea win
  4. IPS v FUL 2–1 Fulham win
  5. SUN v BHA 0–2 Brighton & Hove Albion win
  6. MUN v TOT 1–1 Manchester United win
  7. CRY v NFO 3–1 Crystal Palace win
  8. HUL v EVE 2–2 Everton win
  9. LIV v MCI 0–3 Manchester City win
  10. COV v NEW 4–1 Newcastle United win

Gameweek 5

  1. BRE v CHE 3–0 Brentford win
  2. TOT v AVL 2–3 Aston Villa win
  3. BHA v ARS 3–0 Arsenal win
  4. EVE v IPS 1–0 Everton win
  5. NEW v HUL 2–1 Newcastle United win
  6. NFO v COV 0–1 Nottingham Forest win
  7. LEE v CRY 0–0 Leeds United win
  8. MCI v SUN 5–3 Manchester City win
  9. BOU v LIV 0–1 Liverpool win
  10. FUL v MUN 1–1 Manchester United win

Gameweek 4

  1. AVL v NFO 1–2 Aston Villa win
  2. BOU v BRE 2–2 Bournemouth win
  3. CHE v HUL 2–2 Chelsea win
  4. CRY v IPS 2–3 Crystal Palace win
  5. LIV v FUL 0–0 Liverpool win
  6. TOT v EVE 0–0 Everton win
  7. SUN v ARS 0–2 Arsenal win
  8. COV v BHA 0–5 Brighton & Hove Albion win
  9. MUN v MCI 0–1 Manchester City win
  10. LEE v NEW 4–1 Leeds United win

Gameweek 3

  1. IPS v LIV 0–2 Liverpool win
  2. NEW v BOU 2–2 Newcastle United win
  3. BRE v SUN 1–1 Brentford win
  4. BHA v LEE 1–1 Brighton & Hove Albion win
  5. FUL v CRY 2–3 Fulham win
  6. MCI v COV 1–0 Manchester City win
  7. NFO v TOT 0–0 Nottingham Forest win
  8. HUL v AVL 0–0 Aston Villa win
  9. EVE v MUN 2–2 Manchester United win
  10. ARS v CHE 2–1 Arsenal win

Gameweek 2

  1. CRY v MCI 1–4 Manchester City win
  2. LIV v NFO 2–2 Liverpool win
  3. BOU v EVE 1–1 Bournemouth win
  4. COV v HUL 0–1 Coventry City win
  5. TOT v NEW 0–2 Newcastle United win
  6. CHE v BHA 4–3 Chelsea win
  7. LEE v BRE 1–1 Leeds United win
  8. SUN v FUL 1–0 Sunderland win
  9. MUN v IPS 5–2 Manchester United win
  10. AVL v ARS 0–1 Arsenal win

Gameweek 1

  1. ARS v COV 3–0 Arsenal win
  2. HUL v MUN 2–0 Manchester United win
  3. EVE v CRY 2–0 Everton win
  4. IPS v SUN 2–1 Sunderland win
  5. NFO v LEE 0–1 Nottingham Forest win
  6. BRE v TOT 3–0 Brentford win
  7. BHA v AVL 4–0 Brighton & Hove Albion win
  8. MCI v BOU 2–1 Manchester City win
  9. NEW v LIV 2–2 Liverpool win
  10. FUL v CHE 2–3 Fulham win