Which Team Will Win?

Sunderland

Where we have Sunderland finishing, the matches they have next, and every call we have made about them this season – frozen at kick-off, right or wrong.

Projected league position, week by week

If the season plays out as the model expects, Sunderland finish 15th on 31 points.

1st 4th 10th 17th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 11th NEW · 1 pts14th SUN · 0 pts15th NFO · 0 pts18th COV · 0 pts19th TOT · 0 pts GW 2 6th NEW · 4 pts11th SUN · 3 pts15th NFO · 1 pts17th COV · 0 pts20th TOT · 0 pts GW 3 7th NEW · 5 pts12th SUN · 4 pts16th NFO · 2 pts18th TOT · 1 pts20th COV · 0 pts GW 4 11th NFO · 5 pts12th NEW · 5 pts14th SUN · 4 pts17th TOT · 2 pts20th COV · 0 pts GW 5 9th NEW · 8 pts13th NFO · 5 pts14th SUN · 4 pts18th COV · 3 pts20th TOT · 2 pts GW 6 11th NEW · 8 pts14th COV · 6 pts15th NFO · 5 pts17th SUN · 4 pts19th TOT · 3 pts GW 7 11th NEW · 8 pts16th TOT · 6 pts17th COV · 6 pts19th NFO · 5 pts20th SUN · 4 pts GW 8 · projected 7th NEW · 11 pts14th NFO · 8 pts16th SUN · 7 pts19th COV · 6 pts20th TOT · 6 pts GW 9 · projected 7th NEW · 14 pts13th SUN · 10 pts16th TOT · 9 pts18th NFO · 8 pts20th COV · 6 pts GW 10 · projected 7th NEW · 14 pts15th SUN · 10 pts17th TOT · 9 pts18th NFO · 8 pts20th COV · 6 pts GW 11 · projected 9th NEW · 14 pts14th TOT · 12 pts16th SUN · 10 pts18th COV · 9 pts19th NFO · 8 pts GW 12 · projected 11th NEW · 14 pts13th SUN · 13 pts15th TOT · 12 pts19th COV · 9 pts20th NFO · 8 pts GW 13 · projected 12th NEW · 14 pts14th SUN · 13 pts16th TOT · 12 pts17th COV · 12 pts18th NFO · 11 pts GW 14 · projected 11th NEW · 17 pts14th SUN · 13 pts16th TOT · 12 pts17th COV · 12 pts18th NFO · 11 pts GW 15 · projected 9th NEW · 20 pts14th SUN · 16 pts16th TOT · 12 pts17th COV · 12 pts18th NFO · 11 pts GW 16 · projected 11th NEW · 20 pts12th SUN · 19 pts16th NFO · 14 pts17th TOT · 12 pts18th COV · 12 pts GW 17 · projected 11th NEW · 20 pts13th SUN · 19 pts16th NFO · 14 pts17th TOT · 12 pts18th COV · 12 pts GW 18 · projected 11th NEW · 23 pts13th SUN · 19 pts16th NFO · 14 pts17th TOT · 12 pts18th COV · 12 pts GW 19 · projected 11th NEW · 23 pts12th SUN · 22 pts15th NFO · 17 pts17th TOT · 12 pts18th COV · 12 pts GW 20 · projected 11th NEW · 23 pts13th SUN · 22 pts15th NFO · 20 pts17th COV · 12 pts18th TOT · 12 pts GW 21 · projected 11th NEW · 26 pts13th SUN · 22 pts15th NFO · 20 pts17th TOT · 15 pts18th COV · 12 pts GW 22 · projected 12th NEW · 26 pts13th SUN · 25 pts15th NFO · 20 pts17th TOT · 15 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 23 · projected 12th NEW · 26 pts13th SUN · 25 pts15th NFO · 20 pts16th TOT · 18 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 24 · projected 12th NEW · 26 pts13th SUN · 25 pts14th NFO · 23 pts15th TOT · 21 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 25 · projected 12th NEW · 29 pts13th SUN · 28 pts15th NFO · 23 pts16th TOT · 21 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 26 · projected 12th NEW · 29 pts13th SUN · 28 pts15th NFO · 23 pts16th TOT · 21 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 27 · projected 11th NEW · 32 pts13th SUN · 28 pts15th NFO · 23 pts17th TOT · 21 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 28 · projected 12th NEW · 32 pts13th SUN · 28 pts15th NFO · 26 pts17th TOT · 21 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 29 · projected 12th NEW · 32 pts14th SUN · 28 pts15th NFO · 26 pts16th TOT · 24 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 30 · projected 11th NEW · 35 pts14th SUN · 28 pts15th NFO · 26 pts17th TOT · 24 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 31 · projected 12th NEW · 35 pts13th SUN · 31 pts15th NFO · 26 pts17th TOT · 24 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 32 · projected 11th NEW · 38 pts14th SUN · 31 pts15th NFO · 26 pts17th TOT · 24 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 33 · projected 11th NEW · 41 pts14th SUN · 31 pts15th NFO · 29 pts16th TOT · 27 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 34 · projected 11th NEW · 44 pts14th SUN · 31 pts15th NFO · 29 pts16th TOT · 27 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 35 · projected 11th NEW · 47 pts14th NFO · 32 pts15th SUN · 31 pts16th TOT · 27 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 36 · projected 11th NEW · 47 pts14th NFO · 32 pts15th SUN · 31 pts16th TOT · 27 pts19th COV · 15 pts GW 37 · projected 10th NEW · 50 pts14th NFO · 35 pts15th SUN · 31 pts16th TOT · 27 pts19th COV · 15 pts GW 38 · projected 10th NEW · 53 pts14th NFO · 38 pts15th SUN · 31 pts17th TOT · 27 pts19th COV · 15 pts
Sunderland Coventry City relegationNottingham Forest relegationTottenham Hotspur relegationNewcastle United derby
Sunderland solid to the last match played, dashed for the forecast. Rivals are dotted throughout, with a dot on their last match played. The white lines are the ones a season is played against – the title, the Champions League places, Europe, and the drop.

Real results so far plus a called outcome for every match still to play, recalculated as results come in. Drawn beside them are the clubs they are actually racing: their usual rivals, and whoever this season has put them in the same fight with. Point at any gameweek for every club's position and points.

Against pre-season expectations

They are 2 places behind our projection.

1st 10th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 · 8 places behind Projected 6thActual 14th GW 2 · 6 places behind Projected 5thActual 11th GW 3 · 1 place behind Projected 11thActual 12th GW 4 · 1 place ahead Actual 14thProjected 15th GW 5 · 3 places ahead Actual 14thProjected 17th GW 6 Actual 17thProjected 17th GW 7 · 2 places behind Projected 17thActual 19th GW 8 Projected 16th GW 9 Projected 16th GW 10 Projected 16th GW 11 Projected 16th GW 12 Projected 16th GW 13 Projected 16th GW 14 Projected 17th GW 15 Projected 16th GW 16 Projected 16th GW 17 Projected 16th GW 18 Projected 17th GW 19 Projected 14th GW 20 Projected 14th GW 21 Projected 15th GW 22 Projected 14th GW 23 Projected 16th GW 24 Projected 16th GW 25 Projected 15th GW 26 Projected 14th GW 27 Projected 15th GW 28 Projected 14th GW 29 Projected 14th GW 30 Projected 15th GW 31 Projected 15th GW 32 Projected 14th GW 33 Projected 14th GW 34 Projected 14th GW 35 Projected 14th GW 36 Projected 14th GW 37 Projected 14th GW 38 Projected 14th

Where Sunderland actually are, week by week, against where the pre-season projection had them – shaded green while they run ahead of it, red while they run behind. Point at any gameweek for both figures.

Next up

Bournemouth 2–0 Sunderland

Sunday 18th October 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

whichteamwillwin.com
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Bournemouth win

2–0Full time

Bournemouth crest
◀ Bournemouth win Sunderland win ▶ 24% draw chance bookmakers
Sunderland crest

Confidence: Fair

BOU SUN D-D-D-L-L W-D-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches -1.00 -1.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-D-D-L D-W-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.81 1.03 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.40 1.65 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Strong 1565 Average 1476 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.32 1.39 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.32 1.57 Defence Conceded per game 2.20 2.07 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 4.6 4.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game BOU SUN D-D-D-L-L W-D-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches -1.00 -1.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-D-D-L D-W-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.81 1.03 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.40 1.65 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Strong 1565 Average 1476 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.32 1.39 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.32 1.57 Defence Conceded per game 2.20 2.07 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 4.6 4.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: Attack. This is the widest gap between them. Sunderland lead it, 1.65 to 1.40. In matches like this, the side scoring more freely usually wins – about 72% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

Against the call – Sunderland come out ahead on it, and Bournemouth are favoured anyway – on the strength of the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target.

  • The callBournemouth to win: 55% against 21%, with the draw at 24%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target.
  • For BournemouthGoals 1.81 v 1.03 (useful); Elo performance 1565 v 1476 (useful); Defence 1.32 v 1.57 (slight).
  • For SunderlandAttack 1.65 v 1.40 (slight).
  • FormBournemouth D-D-D-L-L, Sunderland W-D-L-L-L.
Bournemouth 4-2-3-1 confirmedSunderland 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Sunderland 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 Đ. Petrović 3 A. Truffert 14 António Silva 5 J. Hill 15 A. Smith 10 R. Christie 12 T. Adams 16 M. Tavernier 4 L. Cook 37 Rayan 9 Evanilson
22 R. Roefs 17 Reinildo Mandava 15 O. Alderete 4 K. Danso 20 N. Mukiele 27 N. Sadiki 34 G. Xhaka 11 C. Rigg 28 E. Le Fée 32 T. Hume 57 T. Tutierov
  1. Đ. Petrović
  2. A. Truffert
  3. António Silva
  4. J. Hill
  5. A. Smith
  6. R. Christie
  7. T. Adams
  8. M. Tavernier
  9. L. Cook
  10. Rayan
  11. Evanilson
  1. R. Roefs
  2. Reinildo Mandava
  3. O. Alderete
  4. K. Danso
  5. N. Mukiele
  6. N. Sadiki
  7. G. Xhaka
  8. C. Rigg
  9. E. Le Fée
  10. T. Hume
  11. T. Tutierov

Substitutes A. Adli, D. Brooks, M. Di Gregorio, B. Diakité, B. Gannon-Doak, J. Kluivert, Á. Rodríguez, J. Soler, Juanlu Sánchez

Substitutes J. Ahoka, R. Angulo, N. Angulo, H. Diarra, M. Ellborg, M. Fofana, D. Méthalie, L. O'Nien, C. Talbi

Our call: 55% BOU · 24% draw · 21% SUN  ·  bookmakers: 46% / 27% / 27%  ·  expected goals 1.81–1.03

Last updated 18 Oct at 13:16

Sunderland vs. Leeds United

Sunday 25th October 2026 (Kick Off: 16:30) · Gameweek 8

whichteamwillwin.com

Sunderland win

Sunderland crest
◀ Sunderland win Leeds United win ▶ 27% draw chance bookmakers
Leeds United crest

Knife-edge – Sunderland shade it

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SUN LEE D-L-L-L-L D-W-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches -1.60 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-W-L-L D-L-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 52% 48% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.41 1.28 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.65 1.33 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 59% 74% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.6 3.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game Below average 1470 Average 1518 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.63 1.56 Defence Conceded per game 2.33 2.08 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven SUN LEE D-L-L-L-L D-W-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches -1.60 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-W-L-L D-L-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 52% 48% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.41 1.28 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.65 1.33 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 59% 74% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.6 3.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game Below average 1470 Average 1518 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.63 1.56 Defence Conceded per game 2.33 2.08 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven

The key stat: XI defensive record. This is the widest gap between them. Leeds United come out on top, 1.33 against 1.65. In matches like this, whoever fielded the more solid defence usually wins – about 69% of the time. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

Against the call – Leeds United lead on it, and Sunderland still shade the call – on home advantage, recent shots on target and what this eleven creates.

  • The callKnife-edge – Sunderland 40%, draw 27%, Leeds United 34%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Sunderland comes from home advantage, recent shots on target and what this eleven creates.
  • For SunderlandShots on target 4.6 v 3.4 (useful); Possession 52% v 48% (slight); Home and away form D-W-W-L-L v D-L-W-D-L (slight).
  • For Leeds UnitedGK save rate 74% v 59% (decisive); Goal difference 0.40 v -1.60 (decisive); XI defensive record 1.33 v 1.65 (clear).
  • FormSunderland D-L-L-L-L, Leeds United D-W-D-L-D.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Sunderland 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable · 2 doubtfulLeeds United 3-4-2-1 expected · 7 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Sunderland 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Leeds United 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

22 R. Roefs 20 N. Mukiele 17 Reinildo 12 T. Meunier 32 T. Hume 6 Methalie 28 E.Le Fée 34 G. Xhaka 27 N. Sadiki 10 N.Angulo 9 B. Brobbey
1 J. Trafford 5 T. Muharemović 3 G. Gudmundsson 24 J. Justin 30 N. Elvedi 2 J. Bogle 18 A. Stach 4 E. Ampadu 22 Tanaka 19 N. Okafor 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
  1. R. Roefs98%
  2. N. Mukiele98%
  3. Reinildo78%
  4. T. Meunier53%
  5. T. Hume43%
  6. Methalie25%
  7. E.Le Fée98%
  8. G. Xhaka98%
  9. N. Sadiki96%
  10. N.Angulo71%
  11. B. Brobbey60%
  1. J. Trafford98%
  2. T. Muharemović98%
  3. G. Gudmundsson98%
  4. J. Justin98%
  5. N. Elvedi98%
  6. J. Bogle94%
  7. A. Stach98%
  8. E. Ampadu98%
  9. Tanaka92%
  10. N. Okafor91%
  11. D. Calvert-Lewin97%

Likely subs M. Fofana, H. Diarra, C. Talbi, J. Ahoka, J.Angulo, M. Ellborg, L. O'Nien

Likely subs H. Wilson, L. Nmecha, B. Aaronson, J. Bijol, I. Gruev, J. Bahoya, S. Longstaff

Doubts K. Danso suspended, T. Meunier doubtful, D. Ballard injured, W. Isidor doubtful, L. Hjelde unavailable, J. Seelt unavailable, A. Patterson unavailable, S. Adingra unavailable

Doubts D. James doubtful, W. Gnonto unavailable, J. Harrison unavailable, J. Piroe unavailable, L. Perri unavailable, S. Bornauw unavailable, Mateo Joseph injured, J. Rodon injured

Our call: 40% SUN · 27% draw · 34% LEE  ·  bookmakers: 34% / 29% / 38%  ·  expected goals 1.41–1.28

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Coventry City vs. Sunderland

Saturday 31st October 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 9

whichteamwillwin.com

Sunderland win

Coventry City crest
◀ Coventry win Sunderland win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Sunderland crest

Knife-edge – Sunderland shade it

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COV SUN L-L-L-W-W D-L-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -1.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-L-W W-L-D-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -1.00 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.41 1.42 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.76 1.63 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.54 1.65 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 3.7 4.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game 61% 59% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.10 1.41 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Weak 1433 Below average 1470 Elo performance 1500 is average COV SUN L-L-L-W-W D-L-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -1.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-L-W W-L-D-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -1.00 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.41 1.42 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.76 1.63 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.54 1.65 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 3.7 4.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game 61% 59% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.10 1.41 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Weak 1433 Below average 1470 Elo performance 1500 is average

The key stat: Defence. This is the widest gap between them. It goes to Sunderland: 1.63 to 1.76. In matches like this, the side with the tighter defence usually wins – about 66% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callKnife-edge – Coventry City 37%, draw 26%, Sunderland 37%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Sunderland comes from the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and the defence in front of them.
  • For SunderlandShots on target 4.6 v 3.7 (useful); Attack 1.41 v 1.10 (useful); Goal difference at this venue -0.60 v -1.00 (slight).
  • For Coventry CityGoal difference -0.60 v -1.60 (useful); XI defensive record 1.54 v 1.65 (slight); GK save rate 61% v 59% (slight).
  • FormCoventry City L-L-L-W-W, Sunderland D-L-L-L-L.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Coventry City 3-4-2-1 expected · 11 unavailable · 1 doubtfulSunderland 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable · 2 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Coventry City 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

Sunderland 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

19 C. Rushworth 4 B. Thomas 3 J. Dasilva 2 E. Pinnock 27 M. van Ewijk 21 J. Bidwell 6 M. Grimes 5 J. Rudoni 10 E. Mason-Clark 8 C. Yirenkyi 14 T. Awoniyi
22 R. Roefs 20 N. Mukiele 17 Reinildo 12 T. Meunier 32 T. Hume 6 Methalie 28 E.Le Fée 34 G. Xhaka 27 N. Sadiki 10 N.Angulo 9 B. Brobbey
  1. C. Rushworth98%
  2. B. Thomas98%
  3. J. Dasilva98%
  4. E. Pinnock81%
  5. M. van Ewijk80%
  6. J. BidwellNEW40%
  7. M. Grimes98%
  8. J. Rudoni92%
  9. E. Mason-Clark86%
  10. C. Yirenkyi61%
  11. T. Awoniyi55%
  1. R. Roefs98%
  2. N. Mukiele98%
  3. Reinildo78%
  4. T. Meunier53%
  5. T. Hume43%
  6. Methalie25%
  7. E.Le Fée98%
  8. G. Xhaka98%
  9. N. Sadiki96%
  10. N.Angulo71%
  11. B. Brobbey60%

Likely subs Y. Gboho, F. Onyeka, B. Thomas-Asante, B. Wilson, V. Torp, G. Hamer, E. Simms

Likely subs M. Fofana, H. Diarra, C. Talbi, J. Ahoka, J.Angulo, M. Ellborg, L. O'Nien

Doubts A. Amenda injured, H. Wright injured, L. Kitching unavailable, M. Brau unavailable, J. Markelo unavailable, O. Dovin unavailable, J. Eccles injured, K. Kesler-Hayden doubtful

Doubts K. Danso suspended, T. Meunier doubtful, D. Ballard injured, W. Isidor doubtful, L. Hjelde unavailable, J. Seelt unavailable, A. Patterson unavailable, S. Adingra unavailable

Our call: 37% COV · 26% draw · 37% SUN  ·  bookmakers: 35% / 28% / 38%  ·  expected goals 1.41–1.42

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Sunderland vs. Chelsea

Sunday 8th November 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 10

whichteamwillwin.com

Chelsea win

Sunderland crest
◀ Sunderland win Chelsea win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Chelsea crest

Knife-edge – Chelsea shade it

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SUN CHE D-L-L-L-L L-D-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches -1.60 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-W-L-L L-W-L-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.28 1.50 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.65 1.43 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Below average 1470 Strong 1580 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.63 1.43 Defence Conceded per game 59% 71% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.33 2.07 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven SUN CHE D-L-L-L-L L-D-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches -1.60 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-W-L-L L-W-L-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.28 1.50 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.65 1.43 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Below average 1470 Strong 1580 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.63 1.43 Defence Conceded per game 59% 71% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.33 2.07 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven

The key stat: XI defensive record. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Chelsea come out on top, 1.43 against 1.65. When this gap appears, whoever fielded the more solid defence tends to win, in around 74% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callKnife-edge – Sunderland 32%, draw 26%, Chelsea 42%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Chelsea comes from the long-run strength gap, changes in the other camp and the defence in front of them.
  • For ChelseaGK save rate 71% v 59% (decisive); Goal difference 0.40 v -1.60 (decisive); Elo performance 1580 v 1470 (useful).
  • For SunderlandXI attacking output 2.33 v 2.07 (slight); Home and away form D-W-W-L-L v L-W-L-L-W (marginal).
  • FormSunderland D-L-L-L-L, Chelsea L-D-L-W-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Sunderland 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable · 2 doubtfulChelsea 3-4-2-1 expected · 11 unavailable · 2 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Sunderland 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Chelsea 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

22 R. Roefs 20 N. Mukiele 17 Reinildo 12 T. Meunier 32 T. Hume 6 Methalie 28 E.Le Fée 34 G. Xhaka 27 N. Sadiki 10 N.Angulo 9 B. Brobbey
39 M. Penders 5 M. Lacroix 6 L. Colwill 34 J. Acheampong 3 W. Fofana 10 C. Palmer 17 M. Rogers 7 P. Neto 14 J. Henderson 25 Caicedo 9 João Pedro
  1. R. Roefs98%
  2. N. Mukiele98%
  3. Reinildo78%
  4. T. Meunier53%
  5. T. Hume43%
  6. Methalie25%
  7. E.Le Fée98%
  8. G. Xhaka98%
  9. N. Sadiki96%
  10. N.Angulo71%
  11. B. Brobbey60%
  1. M. Penders25%
  2. M. Lacroix80%
  3. L. Colwill80%
  4. J. Acheampong62%
  5. W. Fofana58%
  6. C. Palmer98%
  7. M. Rogers98%
  8. P. Neto98%
  9. J. Henderson60%
  10. Caicedo38%
  11. João Pedro78%

Likely subs M. Fofana, H. Diarra, C. Talbi, J. Ahoka, J.Angulo, M. Ellborg, L. O'Nien

Likely subs J. Hato, R. Lavia, Chavarria, Estêvão, D. Welbeck, V. Barco, M. Palestra

Doubts K. Danso suspended, T. Meunier doubtful, D. Ballard injured, W. Isidor doubtful, L. Hjelde unavailable, J. Seelt unavailable, A. Patterson unavailable, S. Adingra unavailable

Doubts Martinez injured, Chavarria doubtful, R. James injured, M. Gusto doubtful, E. Emegha injured, J. Gittens injured, T. Chalobah unavailable, F. Jörgensen unavailable

Our call: 32% SUN · 26% draw · 42% CHE  ·  expected goals 1.28–1.50

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Aston Villa vs. Sunderland

Saturday 21st November 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 11

whichteamwillwin.com

Aston Villa win

Aston Villa crest
◀ Aston Villa win Sunderland win ▶ 23% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Sunderland crest

Confidence: Strong

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AVL SUN D-L-W-D-W D-L-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 -1.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-L-L-D W-L-D-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 52% 48% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.86 1.01 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Strong 1598 Below average 1470 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.36 1.65 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 72% 59% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.31 1.63 Defence Conceded per game 2.05 2.33 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven AVL SUN D-L-W-D-W D-L-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 -1.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-L-L-D W-L-D-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 52% 48% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.86 1.01 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Strong 1598 Below average 1470 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.36 1.65 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 72% 59% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.31 1.63 Defence Conceded per game 2.05 2.33 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven

The key stat: Elo performance. No other measure separates them as clearly. Aston Villa come out on top, Strong against Below average. the better-rated side normally comes out on top here – 75% of the time in recent seasons. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callAston Villa to win: 57% against 20%, with the draw at 23%. Confidence strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and changes in the other camp.
  • For Aston VillaGK save rate 72% v 59% (decisive); Goal difference 0.20 v -1.60 (decisive); XI defensive record 1.36 v 1.65 (clear).
  • For SunderlandXI attacking output 2.33 v 2.05 (slight).
  • FormAston Villa D-L-W-D-W, Sunderland D-L-L-L-L.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1 expected · 9 unavailable · 3 doubtfulSunderland 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable · 2 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Sunderland 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 Z. Suzuki 3 V. Lindelöf 5 T. Mings 2 M. Cash 29 Wan-Bissaka 8 B. Kamara 10 Buendía 7 J. McGinn 35 J. Gomes 44 J. Manzambi 11 N.Jackson
22 R. Roefs 20 N. Mukiele 17 Reinildo 12 T. Meunier 32 T. Hume 6 Methalie 28 E.Le Fée 34 G. Xhaka 27 N. Sadiki 10 N.Angulo 9 B. Brobbey
  1. Z. Suzuki98%
  2. V. Lindelöf98%
  3. T. Mings86%
  4. M. Cash63%
  5. A. Wan-Bissaka44%
  6. B. Kamara98%
  7. Buendía92%
  8. J. McGinn83%
  9. J. Gomes58%
  10. J. Manzambi44%
  11. N.Jackson95%
  1. R. Roefs98%
  2. N. Mukiele98%
  3. Reinildo78%
  4. T. Meunier53%
  5. T. Hume43%
  6. Methalie25%
  7. E.Le Fée98%
  8. G. Xhaka98%
  9. N. Sadiki96%
  10. N.Angulo71%
  11. B. Brobbey60%

Likely subs R. Barkley, T. Harwood-Bellis, L. Goretzka, G. Hemmings, I. Mbaye, B. Madjo, L. Bogarde

Likely subs M. Fofana, H. Diarra, C. Talbi, J. Ahoka, J.Angulo, M. Ellborg, L. O'Nien

Doubts A. Wan-Bissaka doubtful, J. Manzambi doubtful, I. Maatsen injured, M. Ruggeri injured, G. Hemmings doubtful, Iling Jr unavailable, L. Lynch unavailable, O. Watkins unavailable

Doubts K. Danso suspended, T. Meunier doubtful, D. Ballard injured, W. Isidor doubtful, L. Hjelde unavailable, J. Seelt unavailable, A. Patterson unavailable, S. Adingra unavailable

Our call: 57% AVL · 23% draw · 20% SUN  ·  expected goals 1.86–1.01

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

The whole season

All 38 of Sunderland's league matches, what we said would happen, and – where it has been played – what actually did. We have called 5 of 6 of their decided matches so far; 1 was a draw, which nobody scores. Rows marked projected are today's model looking ahead: they move every time the season is re-projected, so they are not frozen and are never graded. Everything else is the call we published before kick-off.

GWKick-offOpponentWinDrawLoseOur callResultCalled it?
1 Sat 22 Aug, 15:00 Ipswich Town (A) 45% 26% 28% WinConfidence: Slight 1–2
2 Sun 30 Aug, 14:00 Fulham (H) 39% 27% 34% WinConfidence: Knife-edge 1–0
3 Sat 5 Sept, 15:00 Brentford (A) 26% 26% 48% LoseConfidence: Slight 1–1
4 Sat 12 Sept, 20:00 Arsenal (H) 16% 22% 62% LoseConfidence: Strong 0–2
5 Sun 20 Sept, 14:00 Manchester City (A) 10% 16% 74% LoseConfidence: Very strong 3–5
6 Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 Brighton & Hove Albion (H) 31% 26% 43% LoseConfidence: Knife-edge 0–2
7 Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 Bournemouth (A) 21% 24% 55% LoseConfidence: Fair 0–2
8 Sun 25 Oct, 16:30 Leeds United (H) 40% 27% 34% WinConfidence: Knife-edge –
9 Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Coventry City (A) 37% 26% 37% WinConfidence: Knife-edge –
10 Sun 8 Nov, 14:00 Chelsea (H) 32% 26% 42% LoseConfidence: Knife-edge –
11 Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 Aston Villa (A) 20% 23% 57% LoseConfidence: Strong –
12 Sun 29 Nov, 14:05 Tottenham Hotspur (H) 46% 26% 29% WinProjected: Slight –
13 Wed 2 Dec, 20:00 Liverpool (A) 15% 20% 65% LoseProjected: Strong –
14 Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 Newcastle United (A) 25% 25% 50% LoseProjected: Fair –
15 Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 Nottingham Forest (H) 39% 26% 34% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
16 Sat 19 Dec, 15:00 Crystal Palace (H) 44% 25% 30% WinProjected: Slight –
17 Sat 26 Dec, 15:00 Everton (A) 25% 25% 51% LoseProjected: Fair –
18 Wed 30 Dec, 19:30 Manchester United (A) 18% 21% 61% LoseProjected: Strong –
19 Sat 2 Jan, 15:00 Hull City (H) 51% 25% 24% WinProjected: Fair –
20 Tue 5 Jan, 20:15 Liverpool (H) 25% 25% 51% LoseProjected: Fair –
21 Sat 16 Jan, 15:00 Chelsea (A) 21% 23% 55% LoseProjected: Fair –
22 Sat 23 Jan, 15:00 Coventry City (H) 48% 25% 27% WinProjected: Slight –
23 Sat 30 Jan, 15:00 Tottenham Hotspur (A) 33% 26% 41% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
24 Sat 6 Feb, 15:00 Aston Villa (H) 30% 26% 43% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
25 Wed 10 Feb, 20:00 Hull City (A) 38% 26% 36% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
26 Sat 20 Feb, 15:00 Everton (H) 36% 26% 38% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
27 Sat 27 Feb, 15:00 Crystal Palace (A) 32% 26% 43% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
28 Wed 3 Mar, 20:00 Manchester United (H) 28% 25% 48% LoseProjected: Slight –
29 Sat 13 Mar, 15:00 Brentford (H) 36% 26% 38% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
30 Sat 20 Mar, 15:00 Arsenal (A) 9% 16% 75% LoseProjected: Very strong –
31 Sat 10 Apr, 15:00 Ipswich Town (H) 53% 24% 23% WinProjected: Fair –
32 Sat 17 Apr, 15:00 Fulham (A) 26% 25% 49% LoseProjected: Fair –
33 Sat 24 Apr, 15:00 Nottingham Forest (A) 27% 25% 47% LoseProjected: Slight –
34 Sat 1 May, 15:00 Newcastle United (H) 36% 26% 38% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
35 Sat 8 May, 15:00 Brighton & Hove Albion (A) 19% 23% 58% LoseProjected: Strong –
36 Sat 15 May, 15:00 Bournemouth (H) 30% 26% 45% LoseProjected: Slight –
37 Sun 23 May, 15:00 Leeds United (A) 29% 26% 45% LoseProjected: Slight –
38 Sun 30 May, 16:00 Manchester City (H) 18% 21% 61% LoseProjected: Strong –

Called the winner Called it wrong Drawn – no winner to call