Which Team Will Win?

Sunderland

Every published prediction involving Sunderland, newest first, frozen at kick-off as always.

Projected league position, week by week

If the season plays out as the model expects, Sunderland finish 16th on about 47 points. Every other club is drawn faintly for context.

1st 4th 10th 17th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 · 4th 2 pts projected GW 2 · 5th 3 pts projected GW 3 · 9th 4 pts projected GW 4 · 15th 5 pts projected GW 5 · 17th 6 pts projected GW 6 · 16th 7 pts projected GW 7 · 17th 8 pts projected GW 8 · 17th 9 pts projected GW 9 · 17th 11 pts projected GW 10 · 16th 12 pts projected GW 11 · 17th 13 pts projected GW 12 · 17th 14 pts projected GW 13 · 18th 15 pts projected GW 14 · 17th 16 pts projected GW 15 · 17th 18 pts projected GW 16 · 16th 19 pts projected GW 17 · 17th 20 pts projected GW 18 · 17th 21 pts projected GW 19 · 16th 23 pts projected GW 20 · 15th 24 pts projected GW 21 · 16th 25 pts projected GW 22 · 15th 27 pts projected GW 23 · 15th 28 pts projected GW 24 · 15th 30 pts projected GW 25 · 15th 31 pts projected GW 26 · 15th 33 pts projected GW 27 · 15th 34 pts projected GW 28 · 15th 35 pts projected GW 29 · 15th 37 pts projected GW 30 · 16th 37 pts projected GW 31 · 15th 39 pts projected GW 32 · 15th 40 pts projected GW 33 · 15th 41 pts projected GW 34 · 14th 43 pts projected GW 35 · 14th 44 pts projected GW 36 · 14th 45 pts projected GW 37 · 15th 46 pts projected GW 38 · 16th 47 pts projected

Against pre-season expectations

Once Sunderland have played a few matches, this chart will track where they actually are against where we projected them before a ball was kicked — green when they are running ahead of it, red when they are behind.

Next up

Ipswich Town vs. Sunderland

Saturday 22nd August 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 1

whichteamwillwin.com

Sunderland win

◀ Ipswich Town win Sunderland win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 26%

Confidence: Slight

More statsLess
Ipswich Town crest
IPS SUN L-D-L-L-L L-D-D-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) -1.60 -0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) L-L-L-L-L W-W-L-D-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) -2.00 0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 45% 55% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.09 1.54 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 58% 66% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 2.7 4.0 Exp: Shots on target Per game Very weak 1363 Average 1492 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.52 1.33 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 0.84 1.28 Attack Goals and expected goals per game
Sunderland crest

The key stat: GK save rate. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. Sunderland lead it, 66% to 58%. Historically, the side with the goalkeeper in better form takes these roughly 66% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callSunderland to win: 47% against 26%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • For SunderlandHome and away form W-W-L-D-W v L-L-L-L-L (decisive); Goal difference at this venue 0.60 v -2.00 (decisive); GK save rate 66% v 58% (clear).
  • For Ipswich TownNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormIpswich Town L-D-L-L-L, Sunderland L-D-D-W-W.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Sunderland 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Walton98%
  2. O'Shea98%
  3. Greaves98%
  4. FurlongNEW98%
  5. DiopNEW83%
  6. LukićNEW98%
  7. Enciso94%
  8. McAteerNEW81%
  9. FatawuNEW63%
  10. FlorentinoNEW61%
  11. Al-Hamadi4%
  1. Roefs98%
  2. Mukiele98%
  3. Hume98%
  4. Alderete94%
  5. O'Nien84%
  6. E.Le Fée98%
  7. Xhaka98%
  8. Sadiki98%
  9. Angulo59%
  10. Rigg55%
  11. Brobbey96%

Likely subs Palmer, Button, Johnson, Davis, Ogbene, Clarke, Philogene

Likely subs Reinildo, Ballard, Ellborg, Talbi, Diarra, Mundle, Seelt

Doubts Burns unavailable, Taylor injured, Hirst unavailable, Szmodics unavailable, Matusiwa injured

Doubts Adingra injured, Masuaku unavailable, Hjelde unavailable, Patterson unavailable

Our call: 26% IPS · 26% draw · 47% SUN  ·  expected goals 1.09–1.54

Last updated today at 14:46

Sunderland vs. Fulham

Sunday 30th August 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 2

whichteamwillwin.com

Too close to call

◀ Sunderland win Fulham win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 27%

Draw 27% · leans SUN by 2 points

More statsLess
Sunderland crest
SUN FUL L-D-D-W-W W-L-L-D-W Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) -0.40 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) L-W-L-D-W D-L-D-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) -0.80 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.32 1.27 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 66% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.33 1.22 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Average 1492 Above average 1532 Elo performance 1500 is average 4.0 3.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game 2.30 2.20 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven
Fulham crest

The key stat: GK save rate. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. It goes to Fulham: 75% to 66%. When this gap appears, whoever had the more reliable last line tends to win, in around 63% of cases. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callToo close to call — Sunderland 38%, draw 27%, Fulham 35%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • For SunderlandHome and away form L-W-L-D-W v D-L-D-L-D (useful); Shots on target 4.0 v 3.6 (slight); Goal difference at this venue -0.80 v -1.00 (marginal).
  • For FulhamGK save rate 75% v 66% (clear); Possession 53% v 47% (useful); XI defensive record 1.22 v 1.33 (slight).
  • FormSunderland L-D-D-W-W, Fulham W-L-L-D-W.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Sunderland 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Fulham 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Roefs98%
  2. Mukiele98%
  3. Hume98%
  4. Alderete94%
  5. O'Nien84%
  6. E.Le Fée98%
  7. Xhaka98%
  8. Sadiki98%
  9. Angulo59%
  10. Rigg55%
  11. Brobbey96%
  1. Leno98%
  2. Tete98%
  3. Bassey98%
  4. Castagne98%
  5. Robinson81%
  6. Berge97%
  7. Iwobi95%
  8. Smith Rowe93%
  9. Bobb42%
  10. Kevin42%
  11. Muniz60%

Likely subs Reinildo, Ballard, Ellborg, Talbi, Diarra, Mundle, Seelt

Likely subs Sessegnon, J.Cuenca, Reed, King, Kusi-Asare, Charles, Gonzalo

Doubts Adingra injured, Masuaku unavailable, Hjelde unavailable, Patterson unavailable

Doubts Andersen suspended, Cairney injured

Our call: 38% SUN · 27% draw · 35% FUL  ·  expected goals 1.32–1.27

Last updated today at 09:41

The road ahead

The rest of Sunderland's next 20 fixtures. These are projections from today's model, refreshed each time the season is re-projected — unlike the published predictions above, they are not frozen and do not count towards the track record.

Kick-offGWOpponentWinDrawLoseOur call
Sat 5 Sept, 15:00 3 Brentford (A) 28% 27% 45% Lose 45%
Sat 12 Sept, 20:00 4 Arsenal (H) 19% 23% 58% Lose 58%
Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 5 Manchester City (A) 11% 17% 72% Lose 72%
Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 6 Brighton & Hove Albion (H) 34% 26% 40% Lose 40%
Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 7 Bournemouth (A) 24% 26% 50% Lose 50%
Sun 25 Oct, 16:30 8 Leeds United (H) 41% 26% 33% Win 41%
Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 9 Coventry City (A) 35% 27% 38% Lose 38%
Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 10 Chelsea (H) 37% 27% 36% Win 37%
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 11 Aston Villa (A) 20% 24% 56% Lose 56%
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 12 Tottenham Hotspur (H) 45% 27% 28% Win 45%
Wed 2 Dec, 20:00 13 Liverpool (A) 19% 23% 59% Lose 59%
Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 14 Newcastle United (A) 27% 26% 47% Lose 47%
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 15 Nottingham Forest (H) 40% 27% 33% Win 40%
Sat 19 Dec, 15:00 16 Crystal Palace (H) 42% 27% 31% Win 42%
Sat 26 Dec, 15:00 17 Everton (A) 27% 26% 47% Lose 47%
Wed 30 Dec, 20:00 18 Manchester United (A) 18% 23% 59% Lose 59%
Sat 2 Jan, 15:00 19 Hull City (H) 63% 21% 16% Win 63%
Wed 6 Jan, 20:00 20 Liverpool (H) 29% 26% 45% Lose 45%