Which Team Will Win?

Brighton & Hove Albion

Every published prediction involving Brighton & Hove Albion, newest first, frozen at kick-off as always.

Projected league position, week by week

If the season plays out as the model expects, Brighton & Hove Albion finish 6th on about 58 points. Every other club is drawn faintly for context.

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Against pre-season expectations

Once Brighton & Hove Albion have played a few matches, this chart will track where they actually are against where we projected them before a ball was kicked — green when they are running ahead of it, red when they are behind.

Next up

Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Aston Villa

Sunday 23rd August 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 1

whichteamwillwin.com

Too close to call

◀ Brighton win Aston Villa win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 25%

Draw 25% · leans BHA by 10 points

More statsLess
Brighton & Hove Albion crest
BHA AVL W-L-W-L-L L-L-D-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) 0.00 0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) L-W-W-W-L L-D-L-D-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.60 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 52% 48% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.59 1.37 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.78 2.20 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 71% 63% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.18 1.38 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.64 1.38 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.21 1.46 Defence Conceded per game
Aston Villa crest

The key stat: XI attacking output. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Brighton & Hove Albion lead it, 2.78 to 2.20. When this gap appears, whoever fielded the greater attacking threat tends to win, in around 73% of cases. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callToo close to call — Brighton & Hove Albion 42%, draw 25%, Aston Villa 33%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • For Brighton & Hove AlbionGK save rate 71% v 63% (clear); Home and away form L-W-W-W-L v L-D-L-D-W (useful); XI attacking output 2.78 v 2.20 (useful).
  • For Aston VillaGoal difference 0.20 v 0.00 (marginal).
  • FormBrighton & Hove Albion W-L-W-L-L, Aston Villa L-L-D-W-W.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Verbruggen98%
  2. F.Kadıoğlu98%
  3. Boscagli98%
  4. StruijkNEW98%
  5. Wieffer92%
  6. Groß98%
  7. Hinshelwood98%
  8. Gomez75%
  9. Ayari41%
  10. O'Riley22%
  11. Georginio24%
  1. Martinez98%
  2. Konsa98%
  3. Mings98%
  4. Lindelöf95%
  5. Cash82%
  6. Kamara98%
  7. Bogarde78%
  8. McGinn78%
  9. Barkley63%
  10. Buendía60%
  11. Watkins81%

Likely subs Steele, Dunk, De Cuyper, Coppola, Igor, Kostoulas, Oriola

Likely subs M.Bizot, Pau, Maatsen, Bailey, A.García, Abraham, Garnacho

Doubts Minteh injured, Baleba injured, Mitoma injured, Buonanotte unavailable, Howell unavailable, Ferguson injured, Tzimas injured, Watson unavailable

Doubts Gomes injured, Onana injured, Digne unavailable, Abraham doubtful, Nedeljkovic unavailable, Manzambi injured, Madjo injured, Iling Jr unavailable

Our call: 42% BHA · 25% draw · 33% AVL  ·  expected goals 1.59–1.37

Last updated today at 09:41

Chelsea vs. Brighton & Hove Albion

Sunday 30th August 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 2

whichteamwillwin.com

Too close to call

◀ Chelsea win Brighton win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 25%

Draw 25% · leans CHE by 6 points

More statsLess
Chelsea crest
CHE BHA L-L-D-W-L W-L-W-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) -1.00 0.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) L-L-L-L-W W-W-D-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) -1.20 0.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.53 1.39 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 64% 71% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 3.6 5.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.13 1.64 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.40 1.18 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 2.47 2.78 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven
Brighton & Hove Albion crest

The key stat: GK save rate. This is the widest gap between them. Brighton & Hove Albion come out on top, 71% against 64%. In matches like this, whoever had the more reliable last line usually wins — about 63% of the time. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callToo close to call — Chelsea 40%, draw 25%, Brighton & Hove Albion 34%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • For ChelseaGoals 1.53 v 1.39 (marginal).
  • For Brighton & Hove AlbionShots on target 5.2 v 3.6 (clear); GK save rate 71% v 64% (clear); Attack 1.64 v 1.13 (useful).
  • FormChelsea L-L-D-W-L, Brighton & Hove Albion W-L-W-L-L.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Chelsea 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Sánchez98%
  2. LacroixNEW98%
  3. Gusto98%
  4. Disasi98%
  5. Hato97%
  6. Palmer98%
  7. RogersNEW98%
  8. Enzo98%
  9. Neto98%
  10. Caicedo98%
  11. João Pedro98%
  1. Verbruggen98%
  2. F.Kadıoğlu98%
  3. Boscagli98%
  4. StruijkNEW98%
  5. Wieffer92%
  6. Groß98%
  7. Hinshelwood98%
  8. Gomez75%
  9. Ayari41%
  10. O'Riley22%
  11. Georginio24%

Likely subs B.Badiashile, N.Jackson, Colwill, Estêvão, James, Barco, Delap

Likely subs Steele, Dunk, De Cuyper, Coppola, Igor, Kostoulas, Oriola

Doubts Fofana suspended, Welbeck doubtful, Jörgensen unavailable, Henderson doubtful, Chalobah unavailable

Doubts Minteh injured, Baleba injured, Mitoma injured, Buonanotte unavailable, Howell unavailable, Ferguson injured, Tzimas injured, Watson unavailable

Our call: 40% CHE · 25% draw · 34% BHA  ·  expected goals 1.53–1.39

Last updated today at 09:41

The road ahead

The rest of Brighton & Hove Albion's next 20 fixtures. These are projections from today's model, refreshed each time the season is re-projected — unlike the published predictions above, they are not frozen and do not count towards the track record.

Kick-offGWOpponentWinDrawLoseOur call
Sat 5 Sept, 15:00 3 Leeds United (H) 53% 24% 23% Win 53%
Sun 13 Sept, 14:00 4 Coventry City (A) 45% 25% 30% Win 45%
Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 5 Arsenal (H) 26% 24% 50% Lose 50%
Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 6 Sunderland (A) 40% 26% 34% Win 40%
Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 7 Crystal Palace (H) 52% 24% 23% Win 52%
Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 8 Liverpool (A) 26% 24% 50% Lose 50%
Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 9 Manchester City (A) 17% 20% 64% Lose 64%
Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 10 Brentford (H) 52% 25% 23% Win 52%
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 11 Hull City (A) 61% 21% 18% Win 61%
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 12 Newcastle United (H) 48% 25% 27% Win 48%
Wed 2 Dec, 20:00 13 Bournemouth (A) 32% 26% 42% Lose 42%
Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 14 Nottingham Forest (A) 37% 26% 37% Lose 37%
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 15 Everton (H) 49% 25% 26% Win 49%
Sat 19 Dec, 15:00 16 Ipswich Town (H) 71% 18% 11% Win 71%
Sat 26 Dec, 15:00 17 Fulham (A) 36% 27% 37% Lose 37%
Wed 30 Dec, 20:00 18 Tottenham Hotspur (A) 42% 26% 32% Win 42%
Sat 2 Jan, 15:00 19 Manchester United (H) 38% 25% 37% Win 38%
Wed 6 Jan, 20:00 20 Bournemouth (H) 45% 26% 29% Win 45%