Which Team Will Win?

Manchester United

Where we have Manchester United finishing, the matches they have next, and every call we have made about them this season – frozen at kick-off, right or wrong.

Projected league position, week by week

If the season plays out as the model expects, Manchester United finish 6th on 76 points.

1st 4th 10th 17th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 5th HUL · 3 pts8th MCI · 3 pts11th NEW · 1 pts17th MUN · 0 pts20th AVL · 0 pts GW 2 1st MCI · 6 pts3rd HUL · 6 pts6th NEW · 4 pts10th MUN · 3 pts19th AVL · 0 pts GW 3 1st MCI · 9 pts3rd HUL · 7 pts7th NEW · 5 pts11th MUN · 4 pts17th AVL · 1 pts GW 4 2nd MCI · 12 pts4th HUL · 8 pts12th NEW · 5 pts13th MUN · 4 pts19th AVL · 1 pts GW 5 1st MCI · 15 pts8th HUL · 8 pts9th NEW · 8 pts12th MUN · 5 pts16th AVL · 4 pts GW 6 1st MCI · 18 pts8th HUL · 9 pts11th NEW · 8 pts13th MUN · 6 pts16th AVL · 5 pts GW 7 1st MCI · 21 pts9th HUL · 9 pts11th NEW · 8 pts12th AVL · 8 pts13th MUN · 7 pts GW 8 · projected 1st MCI · 24 pts7th NEW · 11 pts9th MUN · 10 pts11th HUL · 9 pts15th AVL · 8 pts GW 9 · projected 1st MCI · 27 pts7th NEW · 14 pts8th HUL · 12 pts9th AVL · 11 pts11th MUN · 10 pts GW 10 · projected 1st MCI · 30 pts7th NEW · 14 pts9th MUN · 13 pts11th HUL · 12 pts14th AVL · 11 pts GW 11 · projected 1st MCI · 33 pts8th AVL · 14 pts9th NEW · 14 pts12th MUN · 13 pts13th HUL · 12 pts GW 12 · projected 1st MCI · 33 pts8th AVL · 17 pts10th MUN · 16 pts11th NEW · 14 pts14th HUL · 12 pts GW 13 · projected 1st MCI · 36 pts7th AVL · 20 pts9th MUN · 19 pts12th NEW · 14 pts15th HUL · 12 pts GW 14 · projected 1st MCI · 39 pts7th AVL · 23 pts8th MUN · 22 pts11th NEW · 17 pts15th HUL · 12 pts GW 15 · projected 1st MCI · 42 pts6th AVL · 26 pts7th MUN · 25 pts9th NEW · 20 pts15th HUL · 15 pts GW 16 · projected 1st MCI · 45 pts7th AVL · 26 pts8th MUN · 25 pts11th NEW · 20 pts15th HUL · 15 pts GW 17 · projected 1st MCI · 48 pts7th AVL · 29 pts8th MUN · 28 pts11th NEW · 20 pts15th HUL · 15 pts GW 18 · projected 1st MCI · 51 pts7th MUN · 31 pts8th AVL · 29 pts11th NEW · 23 pts15th HUL · 15 pts GW 19 · projected 1st MCI · 54 pts8th MUN · 31 pts9th AVL · 29 pts11th NEW · 23 pts16th HUL · 15 pts GW 20 · projected 1st MCI · 57 pts7th MUN · 34 pts9th AVL · 29 pts11th NEW · 23 pts16th HUL · 15 pts GW 21 · projected 1st MCI · 60 pts7th MUN · 34 pts8th AVL · 32 pts11th NEW · 26 pts16th HUL · 15 pts GW 22 · projected 1st MCI · 63 pts7th MUN · 37 pts8th AVL · 35 pts12th NEW · 26 pts16th HUL · 15 pts GW 23 · projected 1st MCI · 66 pts7th MUN · 40 pts8th AVL · 38 pts12th NEW · 26 pts18th HUL · 15 pts GW 24 · projected 1st MCI · 69 pts7th MUN · 43 pts8th AVL · 41 pts12th NEW · 26 pts18th HUL · 15 pts GW 25 · projected 1st MCI · 72 pts7th MUN · 46 pts8th AVL · 44 pts12th NEW · 29 pts18th HUL · 15 pts GW 26 · projected 1st MCI · 75 pts7th MUN · 49 pts8th AVL · 47 pts12th NEW · 29 pts18th HUL · 15 pts GW 27 · projected 1st MCI · 78 pts7th AVL · 50 pts8th MUN · 49 pts11th NEW · 32 pts18th HUL · 15 pts GW 28 · projected 1st MCI · 81 pts7th MUN · 52 pts8th AVL · 50 pts12th NEW · 32 pts18th HUL · 15 pts GW 29 · projected 1st MCI · 84 pts7th MUN · 55 pts8th AVL · 53 pts12th NEW · 32 pts18th HUL · 15 pts GW 30 · projected 1st MCI · 87 pts7th AVL · 56 pts8th MUN · 55 pts11th NEW · 35 pts18th HUL · 15 pts GW 31 · projected 1st MCI · 90 pts7th AVL · 59 pts8th MUN · 58 pts12th NEW · 35 pts18th HUL · 15 pts GW 32 · projected 1st MCI · 93 pts7th MUN · 61 pts8th AVL · 59 pts11th NEW · 38 pts18th HUL · 18 pts GW 33 · projected 1st MCI · 96 pts7th MUN · 64 pts8th AVL · 62 pts11th NEW · 41 pts18th HUL · 18 pts GW 34 · projected 1st MCI · 99 pts7th MUN · 67 pts8th AVL · 65 pts11th NEW · 44 pts18th HUL · 18 pts GW 35 · projected 1st MCI · 102 pts7th MUN · 67 pts8th AVL · 65 pts11th NEW · 47 pts18th HUL · 18 pts GW 36 · projected 1st MCI · 105 pts7th MUN · 70 pts8th AVL · 68 pts11th NEW · 47 pts18th HUL · 18 pts GW 37 · projected 1st MCI · 108 pts6th MUN · 73 pts8th AVL · 68 pts10th NEW · 50 pts18th HUL · 18 pts GW 38 · projected 1st MCI · 111 pts6th MUN · 76 pts8th AVL · 71 pts10th NEW · 53 pts18th HUL · 18 pts
Manchester United Aston Villa mid-tableNewcastle United mid-tableHull City mid-tableManchester City derby
Manchester United solid to the last match played, dashed for the forecast. Rivals are dotted throughout, with a dot on their last match played. The white lines are the ones a season is played against – the title, the Champions League places, Europe, and the drop.

Real results so far plus a called outcome for every match still to play, recalculated as results come in. Drawn beside them are the clubs they are actually racing: their usual rivals, and whoever this season has put them in the same fight with. Point at any gameweek for every club's position and points.

Against pre-season expectations

They are 10 places behind our projection.

1st 10th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 · 15 places behind Projected 2ndActual 17th GW 2 · 9 places behind Projected 1stActual 10th GW 3 · 8 places behind Projected 3rdActual 11th GW 4 · 9 places behind Projected 4thActual 13th GW 5 · 8 places behind Projected 4thActual 12th GW 6 · 10 places behind Projected 3rdActual 13th GW 7 · 10 places behind Projected 3rdActual 13th GW 8 Projected 3rd GW 9 Projected 3rd GW 10 Projected 3rd GW 11 Projected 3rd GW 12 Projected 3rd GW 13 Projected 3rd GW 14 Projected 3rd GW 15 Projected 3rd GW 16 Projected 4th GW 17 Projected 4th GW 18 Projected 3rd GW 19 Projected 4th GW 20 Projected 4th GW 21 Projected 4th GW 22 Projected 4th GW 23 Projected 4th GW 24 Projected 3rd GW 25 Projected 3rd GW 26 Projected 4th GW 27 Projected 4th GW 28 Projected 4th GW 29 Projected 4th GW 30 Projected 5th GW 31 Projected 4th GW 32 Projected 4th GW 33 Projected 4th GW 34 Projected 4th GW 35 Projected 4th GW 36 Projected 4th GW 37 Projected 3rd GW 38 Projected 3rd

Where Manchester United actually are, week by week, against where the pre-season projection had them – shaded green while they run ahead of it, red while they run behind. Point at any gameweek for both figures.

Next up

Leeds United 1–1 Manchester United

Sunday 18th October 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

whichteamwillwin.com
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Manchester United win against the odds

1–1Full time

Leeds United crest
◀ Leeds United win Man United win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Manchester United crest

Confidence: Slight

LEE MUN D-D-W-D-L W-D-L-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-D-W-D D-W-L-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.20 0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.16 1.54 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Average 1518 Strong 1601 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.38 1.80 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 3.9 5.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 75% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.03 2.72 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven LEE MUN D-D-W-D-L W-D-L-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-D-W-D D-W-L-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.20 0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.16 1.54 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Average 1518 Strong 1601 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.38 1.80 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 3.9 5.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 75% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.03 2.72 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven

The key stat: Elo performance. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. It goes to Manchester United: Strong to Average. When this gap appears, the side carrying the stronger record tends to win, in around 72% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callManchester United to win: 46% against 28%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and what this eleven creates – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For Manchester UnitedShots on target 5.4 v 3.9 (clear); XI attacking output 2.72 v 2.03 (useful); Attack 1.80 v 1.38 (useful).
  • For Leeds UnitedHome and away form W-W-D-W-D v D-W-L-D-D (clear); GK save rate 75% v 69% (clear); Goal difference at this venue 1.20 v 0.20 (useful).
  • FormLeeds United D-D-W-D-L, Manchester United W-D-L-D-D.
  • Worth knowingThis call goes against both the ratings and the bookmakers.
Leeds United 3-4-2-1 confirmedManchester United 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Leeds United 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

Manchester United 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 J. Trafford 5 T. Muharemović 30 N. Elvedi 24 J. Justin 3 Gudmundsson 22 A. Tanaka 4 E. Ampadu 2 J. Bogle 19 N. Okafor 18 A. Stach 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
1 S. Lammens 2 Diogo Dalot 6 L. Martínez 5 H. Maguire 15 L. Yoro 20 C. Baleba 17 Andrey Santos 16 A. Diallo 18 Y. Tielemans 8 Bruno Fernandes 19 B. Mbeumo
  1. J. Trafford
  2. T. Muharemović
  3. N. Elvedi
  4. J. Justin
  5. G. Gudmundsson
  6. A. Tanaka
  7. E. Ampadu
  8. J. Bogle
  9. N. Okafor
  10. A. Stach
  11. D. Calvert-Lewin
  1. S. Lammens
  2. Diogo Dalot
  3. L. Martínez
  4. H. Maguire
  5. L. Yoro
  6. C. Baleba
  7. Andrey Santos
  8. A. Diallo
  9. Y. Tielemans
  10. Bruno Fernandes
  11. B. Mbeumo

Substitutes B. Aaronson, J. Bahoya, M. Bard, J. Bijol, I. Gruev, S. Longstaff, L. Nmecha, H. Wilson, M. Zetterer

Substitutes H. Amass, K. Darlow, S. Lacey, N. Mazraoui, M. Mount, M. Rashford, Matheus Cunha, J. Zirkzee, M. de Ligt

Our call: 28% LEE · 26% draw · 46% MUN  ·  bookmakers: 40% / 26% / 33%  ·  expected goals 1.16–1.54

Last updated 18 Oct at 13:16

Manchester United vs. Bournemouth

Sunday 25th October 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 8

whichteamwillwin.com

Manchester United win

Manchester United crest
◀ Man United win Bournemouth win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers
Bournemouth crest

Confidence: Slight

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MUN BOU D-L-D-D-D D-D-L-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.20 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-W-L-D W-D-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.67 1.32 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 5.3 4.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 70% 62% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.66 1.45 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 2.82 2.92 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.35 1.19 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Strong 1600 Strong 1571 Elo performance 1500 is average MUN BOU D-L-D-D-D D-D-L-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.20 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-W-L-D W-D-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.67 1.32 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 5.3 4.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 70% 62% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.66 1.45 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 2.82 2.92 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.35 1.19 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Strong 1600 Strong 1571 Elo performance 1500 is average

The key stat: Shots on target. This is the widest gap between them. Manchester United come out on top, 5.3 against 4.6. In matches like this, whoever worked the keeper harder usually wins – about 72% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callManchester United to win: 45% against 30%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and recent shots on target – the strongest pull the other way is changes in the other camp.
  • For Manchester UnitedGK save rate 70% v 62% (clear); Goal difference at this venue 0.80 v -0.80 (clear); Home and away form W-W-W-L-D v W-D-L-D-L (clear).
  • For BournemouthXI defensive record 1.19 v 1.35 (slight); XI attacking output 2.92 v 2.82 (marginal).
  • FormManchester United D-L-D-D-D, Bournemouth D-D-L-L-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Manchester United 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable · 3 doubtfulBournemouth 4-2-3-1 expected · 6 unavailable Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Manchester United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 S. Lammens 5 H. Maguire 2 Dalot 6 Martinez 23 L. Shaw 8 B.Fernandes 19 B. Mbeumo 18 Y. Tielemans 10 M. Cunha 37 K. Mainoo 9 M. Rashford
1 Đ. Petrović 5 J. Hill 3 A. Truffert 14 A. Silva 15 A. Smith 37 Rayan 12 T. Adams 16 M. Tavernier 10 R. Christie 19 J. Kluivert 9 Evanilson
  1. S. Lammens98%
  2. H. Maguire98%
  3. Dalot82%
  4. Martinez72%
  5. L. Shaw45%
  6. B.Fernandes98%
  7. B. Mbeumo98%
  8. Y. Tielemans94%
  9. M. Cunha79%
  10. K. Mainoo59%
  11. M. Rashford56%
  1. Đ. Petrović98%
  2. J. Hill98%
  3. A. Truffert98%
  4. A. Silva98%
  5. A. Smith97%
  6. Rayan98%
  7. T. Adams97%
  8. M. Tavernier95%
  9. R. Christie59%
  10. J. Kluivert39%
  11. Evanilson98%

Likely subs K. Darlow, L. Yoro, Amad, M. Mount, J. Zirkzee, M. De Ligt, S. Lacey

Likely subs M. Di Gregorio, Á. Rodríguez, D. Brooks, B. Diakité, B. Gannon-Doak, A. Adli, Sanchez

Doubts Martinez doubtful, K. Mainoo doubtful, L. Shaw doubtful, P. Dorgu injured, T. Heaton injured, Šeško injured, Ugarte injured, T. Collyer unavailable

Doubts A. Scott injured, W. Dennis unavailable, Kroupi.Jr injured, E. Ünal unavailable, Milosavljević injured, J.Araujo injured

Our call: 45% MUN · 25% draw · 30% BOU  ·  bookmakers: 51% / 24% / 25%  ·  expected goals 1.67–1.32

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Chelsea vs. Manchester United

Saturday 31st October 2026 (Kick Off: 12:30) · Gameweek 9

whichteamwillwin.com

Chelsea win

Chelsea crest
◀ Chelsea win Man United win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers
Manchester United crest

Knife-edge – Chelsea shade it

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CHE MUN L-D-L-W-W D-L-D-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-W-D-W W-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.55 1.37 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.07 2.82 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 71% 70% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.31 1.66 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 4.7 5.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.43 1.35 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven CHE MUN L-D-L-W-W D-L-D-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-W-D-W W-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.55 1.37 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.07 2.82 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 71% 70% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.31 1.66 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 4.7 5.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.43 1.35 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven

The key stat: XI attacking output. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. It goes to Manchester United: 2.82 to 2.07. Historically, the side naming the more potent eleven takes these roughly 72% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

Against the call – it favours Manchester United; the fine margin sits with Chelsea, who edge home advantage and changes in the other camp.

  • The callKnife-edge – Chelsea 41%, draw 25%, Manchester United 33%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Chelsea comes from home advantage and changes in the other camp.
  • For ChelseaHome and away form L-W-W-D-W v W-L-D-D-D (useful); Goal difference 0.40 v -0.20 (slight); Goal difference at this venue 0.80 v 0.20 (slight).
  • For Manchester UnitedXI attacking output 2.82 v 2.07 (clear); Attack 1.66 v 1.31 (useful); Shots on target 5.3 v 4.7 (slight).
  • FormChelsea L-D-L-W-W, Manchester United D-L-D-D-D.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Chelsea 3-4-2-1 expected · 11 unavailable · 2 doubtfulManchester United 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable · 3 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Chelsea 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

Manchester United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

39 M. Penders 5 M. Lacroix 6 L. Colwill 34 J. Acheampong 3 W. Fofana 10 C. Palmer 17 M. Rogers 7 P. Neto 14 J. Henderson 25 Caicedo 9 João Pedro
1 S. Lammens 5 H. Maguire 2 Dalot 6 Martinez 23 L. Shaw 8 B.Fernandes 19 B. Mbeumo 18 Y. Tielemans 10 M. Cunha 37 K. Mainoo 9 M. Rashford
  1. M. Penders25%
  2. M. Lacroix80%
  3. L. Colwill80%
  4. J. Acheampong62%
  5. W. Fofana58%
  6. C. Palmer98%
  7. M. Rogers98%
  8. P. Neto98%
  9. J. Henderson60%
  10. Caicedo38%
  11. João Pedro78%
  1. S. Lammens98%
  2. H. Maguire98%
  3. Dalot82%
  4. Martinez72%
  5. L. Shaw45%
  6. B.Fernandes98%
  7. B. Mbeumo98%
  8. Y. Tielemans94%
  9. M. Cunha79%
  10. K. Mainoo59%
  11. M. Rashford56%

Likely subs J. Hato, R. Lavia, Chavarria, Estêvão, D. Welbeck, V. Barco, M. Palestra

Likely subs K. Darlow, L. Yoro, Amad, M. Mount, J. Zirkzee, M. De Ligt, S. Lacey

Doubts Martinez injured, Chavarria doubtful, R. James injured, M. Gusto doubtful, E. Emegha injured, J. Gittens injured, T. Chalobah unavailable, F. Jörgensen unavailable

Doubts Martinez doubtful, K. Mainoo doubtful, L. Shaw doubtful, P. Dorgu injured, T. Heaton injured, Šeško injured, Ugarte injured, T. Collyer unavailable

Our call: 41% CHE · 25% draw · 33% MUN  ·  bookmakers: 47% / 25% / 29%  ·  expected goals 1.55–1.37

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Manchester United vs. Aston Villa

Sunday 8th November 2026 (Kick Off: 16:30) · Gameweek 10

whichteamwillwin.com

Manchester United win

Manchester United crest
◀ Man United win Aston Villa win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Aston Villa crest

Confidence: Slight

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MUN AVL D-L-D-D-D D-L-W-D-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.20 0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-W-L-D W-L-D-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 48% 52% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.54 1.25 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.82 2.05 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 70% 72% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.66 1.30 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 5.3 4.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.32 1.31 Defence Conceded per game MUN AVL D-L-D-D-D D-L-W-D-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.20 0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-W-L-D W-L-D-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 48% 52% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.54 1.25 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.82 2.05 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 70% 72% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.66 1.30 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 5.3 4.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.32 1.31 Defence Conceded per game

The key stat: XI attacking output. No other measure separates them as clearly. Manchester United lead it, 2.82 to 2.05. the side naming the more potent eleven normally comes out on top here – 72% of the time in recent seasons. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callManchester United to win: 44% against 30%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, recent shots on target and what this eleven creates – the strongest pull the other way is changes in the other camp.
  • For Manchester UnitedXI attacking output 2.82 v 2.05 (clear); Goal difference at this venue 0.80 v -0.20 (useful); Attack 1.66 v 1.30 (useful).
  • For Aston VillaPossession 52% v 48% (slight); Goal difference 0.20 v -0.20 (slight); GK save rate 72% v 70% (marginal).
  • FormManchester United D-L-D-D-D, Aston Villa D-L-W-D-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Manchester United 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable · 3 doubtfulAston Villa 4-2-3-1 expected · 9 unavailable · 3 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Manchester United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 S. Lammens 5 H. Maguire 2 Dalot 6 Martinez 23 L. Shaw 8 B.Fernandes 19 B. Mbeumo 18 Y. Tielemans 10 M. Cunha 37 K. Mainoo 9 M. Rashford
1 Z. Suzuki 3 V. Lindelöf 5 T. Mings 2 M. Cash 29 Wan-Bissaka 8 B. Kamara 10 Buendía 7 J. McGinn 35 J. Gomes 44 J. Manzambi 11 N.Jackson
  1. S. Lammens98%
  2. H. Maguire98%
  3. Dalot82%
  4. Martinez72%
  5. L. Shaw45%
  6. B.Fernandes98%
  7. B. Mbeumo98%
  8. Y. Tielemans94%
  9. M. Cunha79%
  10. K. Mainoo59%
  11. M. Rashford56%
  1. Z. Suzuki98%
  2. V. Lindelöf98%
  3. T. Mings86%
  4. M. Cash63%
  5. A. Wan-Bissaka44%
  6. B. Kamara98%
  7. Buendía92%
  8. J. McGinn83%
  9. J. Gomes58%
  10. J. Manzambi44%
  11. N.Jackson95%

Likely subs K. Darlow, L. Yoro, Amad, M. Mount, J. Zirkzee, M. De Ligt, S. Lacey

Likely subs R. Barkley, T. Harwood-Bellis, L. Goretzka, G. Hemmings, I. Mbaye, B. Madjo, L. Bogarde

Doubts Martinez doubtful, K. Mainoo doubtful, L. Shaw doubtful, P. Dorgu injured, T. Heaton injured, Šeško injured, Ugarte injured, T. Collyer unavailable

Doubts A. Wan-Bissaka doubtful, J. Manzambi doubtful, I. Maatsen injured, M. Ruggeri injured, G. Hemmings doubtful, Iling Jr unavailable, L. Lynch unavailable, O. Watkins unavailable

Our call: 44% MUN · 26% draw · 30% AVL  ·  expected goals 1.54–1.25

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Liverpool vs. Manchester United

Sunday 22nd November 2026 (Kick Off: 16:30) · Gameweek 11

whichteamwillwin.com

Liverpool win

Liverpool crest
◀ Liverpool win Man United win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Manchester United crest

Confidence: Slight

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LIV MUN W-D-W-L-W D-L-D-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-D-D-L W-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 53% 47% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.69 1.21 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 2.45 2.82 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 68% 70% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.22 1.35 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Very strong 1641 Strong 1600 Elo performance 1500 is average 5.1 5.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game LIV MUN W-D-W-L-W D-L-D-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-D-D-L W-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 53% 47% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.69 1.21 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 2.45 2.82 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 68% 70% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.22 1.35 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Very strong 1641 Strong 1600 Elo performance 1500 is average 5.1 5.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: XI attacking output. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. Manchester United come out on top, 2.82 against 2.45. Historically, the side naming the more potent eleven takes these roughly 70% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

Against the call – it favours Manchester United; Liverpool are tipped because they lead on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and changes in the other camp.

  • The callLiverpool to win: 48% against 27%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and changes in the other camp – the strongest pull the other way is what this eleven creates.
  • For LiverpoolPossession 53% v 47% (useful); Goals 1.69 v 1.21 (useful); XI defensive record 1.22 v 1.35 (slight).
  • For Manchester UnitedGoal difference at this venue 0.20 v -0.60 (useful); XI attacking output 2.82 v 2.45 (slight); GK save rate 70% v 68% (slight).
  • FormLiverpool W-D-W-L-W, Manchester United D-L-D-D-D.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Liverpool 4-2-3-1 expected · 11 unavailableManchester United 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable · 3 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Liverpool 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Manchester United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 A.Becker 4 Virgil 5 J. Jacquet 33 R. Araujo 6 M. Kerkez 7 F. Wirtz 10 A. Mac Allister 29 B. Barcola 23 V. Munoz 18 C. Gakpo 9 A. Isak
1 S. Lammens 5 H. Maguire 2 Dalot 6 Martinez 23 L. Shaw 8 B.Fernandes 19 B. Mbeumo 18 Y. Tielemans 10 M. Cunha 37 K. Mainoo 9 M. Rashford
  1. A.Becker98%
  2. Virgil98%
  3. J. Jacquet98%
  4. R. Araujo93%
  5. M. Kerkez84%
  6. F. Wirtz96%
  7. A. Mac Allister82%
  8. B. Barcola79%
  9. V. Munoz75%
  10. C. Gakpo43%
  11. A. Isak76%
  1. S. Lammens98%
  2. H. Maguire98%
  3. Dalot82%
  4. Martinez72%
  5. L. Shaw45%
  6. B.Fernandes98%
  7. B. Mbeumo98%
  8. Y. Tielemans94%
  9. M. Cunha79%
  10. K. Mainoo59%
  11. M. Rashford56%

Likely subs R. Gravenberch, R. Ngumoha, L. Koumas, J. Gomez, K. Tsimikas, Endo, G. Mamardashvili

Likely subs K. Darlow, L. Yoro, Amad, M. Mount, J. Zirkzee, M. De Ligt, S. Lacey

Doubts D. Szoboszlai injured, A. Pecsi unavailable, J. Frimpong injured, V. Jaros injured, G. Leoni injured, C. Ramsay unavailable, H. Ekitiké injured, C.Jones unavailable

Doubts Martinez doubtful, K. Mainoo doubtful, L. Shaw doubtful, P. Dorgu injured, T. Heaton injured, Šeško injured, Ugarte injured, T. Collyer unavailable

Our call: 48% LIV · 25% draw · 27% MUN  ·  expected goals 1.69–1.21

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

The whole season

All 38 of Manchester United's league matches, what we said would happen, and – where it has been played – what actually did. We have called 2 of 3 of their decided matches so far; 4 were draws, which nobody scores. Rows marked projected are today's model looking ahead: they move every time the season is re-projected, so they are not frozen and are never graded. Everything else is the call we published before kick-off.

GWKick-offOpponentWinDrawLoseOur callResultCalled it?
1 Sat 22 Aug, 12:30 Hull City (A) 67% 19% 14% WinConfidence: Strong 0–2
2 Sun 30 Aug, 16:30 Ipswich Town (H) 71% 18% 11% WinConfidence: Very strong 5–2
3 Sun 6 Sept, 14:00 Everton (A) 44% 25% 32% WinConfidence: Knife-edge 2–2
4 Sun 13 Sept, 16:30 Manchester City (H) 29% 24% 47% LoseConfidence: Slight 0–1
5 Sun 20 Sept, 16:30 Fulham (A) 42% 27% 32% WinConfidence: Knife-edge 1–1
6 Sat 10 Oct, 17:30 Tottenham Hotspur (H) 65% 20% 15% WinConfidence: Strong 1–1
7 Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 Leeds United (A) 46% 26% 28% WinConfidence: Slight 1–1
8 Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 Bournemouth (H) 45% 25% 30% WinConfidence: Slight –
9 Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 Chelsea (A) 33% 25% 41% LoseConfidence: Knife-edge –
10 Sun 8 Nov, 16:30 Aston Villa (H) 44% 26% 30% WinConfidence: Slight –
11 Sun 22 Nov, 16:30 Liverpool (A) 27% 25% 48% LoseConfidence: Slight –
12 Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 Brentford (H) 53% 23% 23% WinProjected: Fair –
13 Wed 2 Dec, 20:00 Newcastle United (A) 40% 26% 34% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
14 Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 Coventry City (H) 65% 20% 15% WinProjected: Strong –
15 Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 Crystal Palace (A) 48% 24% 27% WinProjected: Slight –
16 Sat 19 Dec, 15:00 Arsenal (A) 18% 22% 60% LoseProjected: Strong –
17 Sun 27 Dec, 16:30 Nottingham Forest (H) 56% 23% 21% WinProjected: Fair –
18 Wed 30 Dec, 19:30 Sunderland (H) 61% 21% 18% WinProjected: Strong –
19 Sat 2 Jan, 12:30 Brighton & Hove Albion (A) 32% 26% 42% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
20 Thu 7 Jan, 20:00 Newcastle United (H) 53% 24% 23% WinProjected: Fair –
21 Sat 16 Jan, 15:00 Aston Villa (A) 33% 26% 41% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
22 Sat 23 Jan, 15:00 Liverpool (H) 39% 26% 35% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
23 Sat 30 Jan, 15:00 Brentford (A) 40% 25% 35% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
24 Sat 6 Feb, 15:00 Chelsea (H) 48% 25% 27% WinProjected: Slight –
25 Wed 10 Feb, 20:00 Brighton & Hove Albion (H) 45% 25% 30% WinProjected: Slight –
26 Sat 20 Feb, 15:00 Nottingham Forest (A) 43% 26% 32% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
27 Sat 27 Feb, 15:00 Arsenal (H) 27% 25% 47% LoseProjected: Slight –
28 Wed 3 Mar, 20:00 Sunderland (A) 48% 25% 28% WinProjected: Slight –
29 Sat 13 Mar, 15:00 Everton (H) 53% 24% 23% WinProjected: Fair –
30 Sat 20 Mar, 15:00 Manchester City (A) 20% 22% 58% LoseProjected: Strong –
31 Sat 10 Apr, 15:00 Hull City (H) 68% 19% 13% WinProjected: Strong –
32 Sat 17 Apr, 15:00 Ipswich Town (A) 57% 23% 20% WinProjected: Strong –
33 Sat 24 Apr, 15:00 Crystal Palace (H) 62% 21% 17% WinProjected: Strong –
34 Sat 1 May, 15:00 Coventry City (A) 52% 24% 24% WinProjected: Fair –
35 Sat 8 May, 15:00 Bournemouth (A) 33% 26% 41% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
36 Sat 15 May, 15:00 Leeds United (H) 57% 23% 20% WinProjected: Strong –
37 Sun 23 May, 15:00 Tottenham Hotspur (A) 49% 25% 26% WinProjected: Fair –
38 Sun 30 May, 16:00 Fulham (H) 54% 24% 22% WinProjected: Fair –

Called the winner Called it wrong Drawn – no winner to call