Which Team Will Win?

Liverpool vs. Manchester United

Sunday 22nd November 2026 (Kick Off: 16:30) · Gameweek 11

whichteamwillwin.com

Liverpool win

Liverpool crest
◀ Liverpool win Man United win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Manchester United crest

Confidence: Slight

MoreLess
LIV MUN W-D-W-L-W D-L-D-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-D-D-L W-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 53% 47% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.69 1.21 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 2.45 2.82 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 68% 70% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.22 1.35 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Very strong 1641 Strong 1600 Elo performance 1500 is average 5.1 5.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game LIV MUN W-D-W-L-W D-L-D-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-D-D-L W-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 53% 47% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.69 1.21 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 2.45 2.82 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 68% 70% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.22 1.35 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Very strong 1641 Strong 1600 Elo performance 1500 is average 5.1 5.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: XI attacking output. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. Manchester United come out on top, 2.82 against 2.45. Historically, the side naming the more potent eleven takes these roughly 70% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

Against the call – it favours Manchester United; Liverpool are tipped because they lead on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and changes in the other camp.

  • The callLiverpool to win: 48% against 27%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and changes in the other camp – the strongest pull the other way is what this eleven creates.
  • For LiverpoolPossession 53% v 47% (useful); Goals 1.69 v 1.21 (useful); XI defensive record 1.22 v 1.35 (slight).
  • For Manchester UnitedGoal difference at this venue 0.20 v -0.60 (useful); XI attacking output 2.82 v 2.45 (slight); GK save rate 70% v 68% (slight).
  • FormLiverpool W-D-W-L-W, Manchester United D-L-D-D-D.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Liverpool 4-2-3-1 expected · 11 unavailableManchester United 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable · 3 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Liverpool 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Manchester United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 A.Becker 4 Virgil 5 J. Jacquet 33 R. Araujo 6 M. Kerkez 7 F. Wirtz 10 A. Mac Allister 29 B. Barcola 23 V. Munoz 18 C. Gakpo 9 A. Isak
1 S. Lammens 5 H. Maguire 2 Dalot 6 Martinez 23 L. Shaw 8 B.Fernandes 19 B. Mbeumo 18 Y. Tielemans 10 M. Cunha 37 K. Mainoo 9 M. Rashford
  1. A.Becker98%
  2. Virgil98%
  3. J. Jacquet98%
  4. R. Araujo93%
  5. M. Kerkez84%
  6. F. Wirtz96%
  7. A. Mac Allister82%
  8. B. Barcola79%
  9. V. Munoz75%
  10. C. Gakpo43%
  11. A. Isak76%
  1. S. Lammens98%
  2. H. Maguire98%
  3. Dalot82%
  4. Martinez72%
  5. L. Shaw45%
  6. B.Fernandes98%
  7. B. Mbeumo98%
  8. Y. Tielemans94%
  9. M. Cunha79%
  10. K. Mainoo59%
  11. M. Rashford56%

Likely subs R. Gravenberch, R. Ngumoha, L. Koumas, J. Gomez, K. Tsimikas, Endo, G. Mamardashvili

Likely subs K. Darlow, L. Yoro, Amad, M. Mount, J. Zirkzee, M. De Ligt, S. Lacey

Doubts D. Szoboszlai injured, A. Pecsi unavailable, J. Frimpong injured, V. Jaros injured, G. Leoni injured, C. Ramsay unavailable, H. Ekitiké injured, C.Jones unavailable

Doubts Martinez doubtful, K. Mainoo doubtful, L. Shaw doubtful, P. Dorgu injured, T. Heaton injured, Šeško injured, Ugarte injured, T. Collyer unavailable

Our call: 48% LIV · 25% draw · 27% MUN  ·  expected goals 1.69–1.21

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ LiverpoolMan United ▸Goals
Home advantage 0.29
Long-run strength 0.18
Settled eleven 0.04
XI attacking output 0.03
Shots on target 0.03
Defence 0.02
Everything else 0.01
Liverpool ahead by 0.48

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Liverpool come out 0.48 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Man United goals Liverpool goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Liverpool 0–0 Man United: 6% Liverpool 0–1 Man United: 6% Liverpool 0–2 Man United: 4% Liverpool 0–3 Man United: 2% Liverpool 0–4 Man United: <1% Liverpool 0–5 Man United: <1% Liverpool 1–0 Man United: 9% Liverpool 1–1 Man United: 12% Liverpool 1–2 Man United: 7% Liverpool 1–3 Man United: 3% Liverpool 1–4 Man United: <1% Liverpool 1–5 Man United: <1% Liverpool 2–0 Man United: 8% Liverpool 2–1 Man United: 10% Liverpool 2–2 Man United: 6% Liverpool 2–3 Man United: 2% Liverpool 2–4 Man United: <1% Liverpool 2–5 Man United: <1% Liverpool 3–0 Man United: 4% Liverpool 3–1 Man United: 5% Liverpool 3–2 Man United: 3% Liverpool 3–3 Man United: 1% Liverpool 3–4 Man United: <1% Liverpool 3–5 Man United: <1% Liverpool 4–0 Man United: 2% Liverpool 4–1 Man United: 2% Liverpool 4–2 Man United: 1% Liverpool 4–3 Man United: <1% Liverpool 4–4 Man United: <1% Liverpool 5–0 Man United: <1% Liverpool 5–1 Man United: <1% Liverpool 5–2 Man United: <1% Liverpool 5–3 Man United: <1% Liverpool 5–4 Man United: <1% Liverpool 6–0 Man United: <1% Liverpool 6–1 Man United: <1% Liverpool 6–2 Man United: <1% Liverpool 6–3 Man United: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Liverpool win, above it Man United do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →