Which Team Will Win?

Newcastle United

Every published prediction involving Newcastle United, newest first, frozen at kick-off as always.

Projected league position, week by week

If the season plays out as the model expects, Newcastle United finish 9th on about 52 points. Every other club is drawn faintly for context.

1st 4th 10th 17th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 · 12th 1 pts projected GW 2 · 12th 3 pts projected GW 3 · 10th 4 pts projected GW 4 · 8th 5 pts projected GW 5 · 6th 8 pts projected GW 6 · 7th 9 pts projected GW 7 · 9th 10 pts projected GW 8 · 7th 12 pts projected GW 9 · 6th 13 pts projected GW 10 · 6th 15 pts projected GW 11 · 10th 15 pts projected GW 12 · 10th 17 pts projected GW 13 · 11th 18 pts projected GW 14 · 10th 19 pts projected GW 15 · 8th 21 pts projected GW 16 · 8th 23 pts projected GW 17 · 9th 23 pts projected GW 18 · 9th 25 pts projected GW 19 · 9th 26 pts projected GW 20 · 10th 27 pts projected GW 21 · 9th 29 pts projected GW 22 · 11th 29 pts projected GW 23 · 10th 31 pts projected GW 24 · 10th 32 pts projected GW 25 · 10th 33 pts projected GW 26 · 11th 34 pts projected GW 27 · 10th 36 pts projected GW 28 · 10th 37 pts projected GW 29 · 12th 38 pts projected GW 30 · 10th 40 pts projected GW 31 · 12th 41 pts projected GW 32 · 10th 42 pts projected GW 33 · 9th 44 pts projected GW 34 · 9th 46 pts projected GW 35 · 9th 48 pts projected GW 36 · 10th 49 pts projected GW 37 · 9th 50 pts projected GW 38 · 9th 52 pts projected

Against pre-season expectations

Once Newcastle United have played a few matches, this chart will track where they actually are against where we projected them before a ball was kicked — green when they are running ahead of it, red when they are behind.

Next up

Newcastle United vs. Liverpool

Sunday 23rd August 2026 (Kick Off: 16:30) · Gameweek 1

whichteamwillwin.com

Too close to call

◀ Newcastle win Liverpool win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 26%

Draw 26% · leans LIV by 9 points

More statsLess
Newcastle United crest
NEW LIV L-W-D-W-L W-L-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) 0.20 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) W-L-L-W-W L-L-W-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.60 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.31 1.50 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.51 1.40 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Above average 1546 Very strong 1635 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.57 1.44 Defence Conceded per game 67% 67% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.4 5.1 Exp: Shots on target Per game
Liverpool crest

The key stat: XI defensive record. This is the widest gap between them. Liverpool come out on top, 1.40 against 1.51. In matches like this, whoever fielded the more solid defence usually wins — about 74% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callToo close to call — Newcastle United 33%, draw 26%, Liverpool 41%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • For LiverpoolPossession 53% v 47% (useful); Elo performance 1635 v 1546 (useful); Shots on target 5.1 v 4.4 (slight).
  • For Newcastle UnitedHome and away form W-L-L-W-W v L-L-W-L-L (clear); Goal difference at this venue 0.60 v -0.80 (clear); Goal difference 0.20 v -0.20 (slight).
  • FormNewcastle United L-W-D-W-L, Liverpool W-L-D-L-D.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Liverpool 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Pope98%
  2. Thiaw98%
  3. Schär98%
  4. Botman98%
  5. Burn81%
  6. L.Miley98%
  7. J.Murphy73%
  8. Willock62%
  9. J.Ramsey62%
  10. Barnes27%
  11. Osula93%
  1. A.Becker98%
  2. Virgil98%
  3. Tsimikas94%
  4. Kerkez43%
  5. Frimpong42%
  6. Szoboszlai98%
  7. Mac Allister98%
  8. Gakpo98%
  9. Gravenberch79%
  10. C.Jones75%
  11. Isak42%

Likely subs Hall, Woltemade, Elanga, Wissa, Neave, Touré, Steur

Likely subs Mamardashvili, Woodman, Wirtz, Ngumoha, Endo, Elliott, Chiesa

Doubts Joelinton injured, Livramento injured, A.Murphy unavailable

Doubts C.Jones doubtful, Bradley injured, Ekitiké injured, Bajcetic injured, Gomez injured, Danns injured, Jaros injured, Pecsi unavailable

Our call: 33% NEW · 26% draw · 41% LIV  ·  expected goals 1.31–1.50

Last updated 19 Aug at 12:28

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Newcastle United

Saturday 29th August 2026 (Kick Off: 17:30) · Gameweek 2

whichteamwillwin.com

Too close to call

◀ Tottenham win Newcastle win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 26%

Draw 26% · leans NEW by 1 point

More statsLess
Tottenham Hotspur crest
TOT NEW W-W-D-L-W L-W-D-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) 0.40 0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) L-L-D-D-W W-L-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) -0.80 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.39 1.41 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.17 1.51 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Below average 1468 Above average 1546 Elo performance 1500 is average 70% 67% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 0.91 1.57 Defence Conceded per game 1.93 2.36 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven
Newcastle United crest

The key stat: XI defensive record. No other measure separates them as clearly. Tottenham Hotspur come out on top, 1.17 against 1.51. the side with the steadier back line normally comes out on top here — 74% of the time in recent seasons. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callToo close to call — Tottenham Hotspur 37%, draw 26%, Newcastle United 37%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • For Newcastle UnitedXI attacking output 2.36 v 1.93 (useful); Elo performance 1546 v 1468 (useful); Goal difference at this venue -0.60 v -0.80 (marginal).
  • For Tottenham HotspurDefence 0.91 v 1.57 (clear); XI defensive record 1.17 v 1.51 (clear); GK save rate 70% v 67% (useful).
  • FormTottenham Hotspur W-W-D-L-W, Newcastle United L-W-D-W-L.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Kinsky98%
  2. SenesiNEW98%
  3. Pedro Porro98%
  4. Van HeckeNEW98%
  5. Danso98%
  6. FernandesNEW98%
  7. Gallagher98%
  8. TonaliNEW97%
  9. Bentancur97%
  10. Tel81%
  11. Solanke97%
  1. Pope98%
  2. Thiaw98%
  3. Schär98%
  4. Botman98%
  5. Burn81%
  6. L.Miley98%
  7. J.Murphy73%
  8. Willock62%
  9. J.Ramsey62%
  10. Barnes27%
  11. Osula93%

Likely subs Van de Ven, Dubravka, Udogie, Robertson, Richarlison, Kudus, Gray

Likely subs Hall, Woltemade, Elanga, Wissa, Neave, Touré, Steur

Doubts Vicario unavailable, Kudus doubtful, Romero unavailable, Odobert injured, Kulusevski injured, Spence unavailable, Xavi injured, Phillips unavailable

Doubts Joelinton injured, Livramento injured, A.Murphy unavailable

Our call: 37% TOT · 26% draw · 37% NEW  ·  expected goals 1.39–1.41

Last updated today at 09:41

The road ahead

The rest of Newcastle United's next 20 fixtures. These are projections from today's model, refreshed each time the season is re-projected — unlike the published predictions above, they are not frozen and do not count towards the track record.

Kick-offGWOpponentWinDrawLoseOur call
Sat 5 Sept, 12:30 3 Bournemouth (H) 43% 27% 30% Win 43%
Mon 14 Sept, 20:00 4 Leeds United (A) 33% 26% 41% Lose 41%
Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 5 Hull City (H) 68% 19% 13% Win 68%
Mon 12 Oct, 20:00 6 Coventry City (A) 40% 26% 34% Win 40%
Sat 17 Oct, 17:30 7 Aston Villa (H) 35% 26% 39% Lose 39%
Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 8 Crystal Palace (A) 35% 26% 39% Lose 39%
Mon 2 Nov, 20:00 9 Everton (H) 44% 26% 30% Win 44%
Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 10 Fulham (A) 32% 27% 41% Lose 41%
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 11 Arsenal (H) 22% 23% 54% Lose 54%
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 12 Brighton & Hove Albion (A) 27% 25% 48% Lose 48%
Wed 2 Dec, 20:00 13 Manchester United (H) 33% 26% 42% Lose 42%
Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 14 Sunderland (H) 47% 26% 27% Win 47%
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 15 Ipswich Town (A) 53% 25% 23% Win 53%
Sat 19 Dec, 15:00 16 Brentford (A) 35% 27% 38% Lose 38%
Sat 26 Dec, 15:00 17 Manchester City (H) 23% 23% 54% Lose 54%
Wed 30 Dec, 20:00 18 Nottingham Forest (H) 45% 26% 29% Win 45%
Sat 2 Jan, 15:00 19 Chelsea (A) 30% 26% 44% Lose 44%
Wed 6 Jan, 20:00 20 Manchester United (A) 22% 23% 55% Lose 55%