Which Team Will Win?

Newcastle United

Where we have Newcastle United finishing, the matches they have next, and every call we have made about them this season – frozen at kick-off, right or wrong.

Projected league position, week by week

If the season plays out as the model expects, Newcastle United finish 10th on 53 points.

1st 4th 10th 17th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 5th HUL · 3 pts11th NEW · 1 pts14th SUN · 0 pts17th MUN · 0 pts20th AVL · 0 pts GW 2 3rd HUL · 6 pts6th NEW · 4 pts10th MUN · 3 pts11th SUN · 3 pts19th AVL · 0 pts GW 3 3rd HUL · 7 pts7th NEW · 5 pts11th MUN · 4 pts12th SUN · 4 pts17th AVL · 1 pts GW 4 4th HUL · 8 pts12th NEW · 5 pts13th MUN · 4 pts14th SUN · 4 pts19th AVL · 1 pts GW 5 8th HUL · 8 pts9th NEW · 8 pts12th MUN · 5 pts14th SUN · 4 pts16th AVL · 4 pts GW 6 8th HUL · 9 pts11th NEW · 8 pts13th MUN · 6 pts16th AVL · 5 pts17th SUN · 4 pts GW 7 9th HUL · 9 pts11th NEW · 8 pts12th AVL · 8 pts13th MUN · 7 pts20th SUN · 4 pts GW 8 · projected 7th NEW · 11 pts9th MUN · 10 pts11th HUL · 9 pts15th AVL · 8 pts16th SUN · 7 pts GW 9 · projected 7th NEW · 14 pts8th HUL · 12 pts9th AVL · 11 pts11th MUN · 10 pts13th SUN · 10 pts GW 10 · projected 7th NEW · 14 pts9th MUN · 13 pts11th HUL · 12 pts14th AVL · 11 pts15th SUN · 10 pts GW 11 · projected 8th AVL · 14 pts9th NEW · 14 pts12th MUN · 13 pts13th HUL · 12 pts16th SUN · 10 pts GW 12 · projected 8th AVL · 17 pts10th MUN · 16 pts11th NEW · 14 pts13th SUN · 13 pts14th HUL · 12 pts GW 13 · projected 7th AVL · 20 pts9th MUN · 19 pts12th NEW · 14 pts14th SUN · 13 pts15th HUL · 12 pts GW 14 · projected 7th AVL · 23 pts8th MUN · 22 pts11th NEW · 17 pts14th SUN · 13 pts15th HUL · 12 pts GW 15 · projected 6th AVL · 26 pts7th MUN · 25 pts9th NEW · 20 pts14th SUN · 16 pts15th HUL · 15 pts GW 16 · projected 7th AVL · 26 pts8th MUN · 25 pts11th NEW · 20 pts12th SUN · 19 pts15th HUL · 15 pts GW 17 · projected 7th AVL · 29 pts8th MUN · 28 pts11th NEW · 20 pts13th SUN · 19 pts15th HUL · 15 pts GW 18 · projected 7th MUN · 31 pts8th AVL · 29 pts11th NEW · 23 pts13th SUN · 19 pts15th HUL · 15 pts GW 19 · projected 8th MUN · 31 pts9th AVL · 29 pts11th NEW · 23 pts12th SUN · 22 pts16th HUL · 15 pts GW 20 · projected 7th MUN · 34 pts9th AVL · 29 pts11th NEW · 23 pts13th SUN · 22 pts16th HUL · 15 pts GW 21 · projected 7th MUN · 34 pts8th AVL · 32 pts11th NEW · 26 pts13th SUN · 22 pts16th HUL · 15 pts GW 22 · projected 7th MUN · 37 pts8th AVL · 35 pts12th NEW · 26 pts13th SUN · 25 pts16th HUL · 15 pts GW 23 · projected 7th MUN · 40 pts8th AVL · 38 pts12th NEW · 26 pts13th SUN · 25 pts18th HUL · 15 pts GW 24 · projected 7th MUN · 43 pts8th AVL · 41 pts12th NEW · 26 pts13th SUN · 25 pts18th HUL · 15 pts GW 25 · projected 7th MUN · 46 pts8th AVL · 44 pts12th NEW · 29 pts13th SUN · 28 pts18th HUL · 15 pts GW 26 · projected 7th MUN · 49 pts8th AVL · 47 pts12th NEW · 29 pts13th SUN · 28 pts18th HUL · 15 pts GW 27 · projected 7th AVL · 50 pts8th MUN · 49 pts11th NEW · 32 pts13th SUN · 28 pts18th HUL · 15 pts GW 28 · projected 7th MUN · 52 pts8th AVL · 50 pts12th NEW · 32 pts13th SUN · 28 pts18th HUL · 15 pts GW 29 · projected 7th MUN · 55 pts8th AVL · 53 pts12th NEW · 32 pts14th SUN · 28 pts18th HUL · 15 pts GW 30 · projected 7th AVL · 56 pts8th MUN · 55 pts11th NEW · 35 pts14th SUN · 28 pts18th HUL · 15 pts GW 31 · projected 7th AVL · 59 pts8th MUN · 58 pts12th NEW · 35 pts13th SUN · 31 pts18th HUL · 15 pts GW 32 · projected 7th MUN · 61 pts8th AVL · 59 pts11th NEW · 38 pts14th SUN · 31 pts18th HUL · 18 pts GW 33 · projected 7th MUN · 64 pts8th AVL · 62 pts11th NEW · 41 pts14th SUN · 31 pts18th HUL · 18 pts GW 34 · projected 7th MUN · 67 pts8th AVL · 65 pts11th NEW · 44 pts14th SUN · 31 pts18th HUL · 18 pts GW 35 · projected 7th MUN · 67 pts8th AVL · 65 pts11th NEW · 47 pts15th SUN · 31 pts18th HUL · 18 pts GW 36 · projected 7th MUN · 70 pts8th AVL · 68 pts11th NEW · 47 pts15th SUN · 31 pts18th HUL · 18 pts GW 37 · projected 6th MUN · 73 pts8th AVL · 68 pts10th NEW · 50 pts15th SUN · 31 pts18th HUL · 18 pts GW 38 · projected 6th MUN · 76 pts8th AVL · 71 pts10th NEW · 53 pts15th SUN · 31 pts18th HUL · 18 pts
Newcastle United Aston Villa mid-tableManchester United mid-tableHull City mid-tableSunderland derby
Newcastle United solid to the last match played, dashed for the forecast. Rivals are dotted throughout, with a dot on their last match played. The white lines are the ones a season is played against – the title, the Champions League places, Europe, and the drop.

Real results so far plus a called outcome for every match still to play, recalculated as results come in. Drawn beside them are the clubs they are actually racing: their usual rivals, and whoever this season has put them in the same fight with. Point at any gameweek for every club's position and points.

Against pre-season expectations

They are 2 places behind our projection.

1st 10th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 · 1 place ahead Actual 11thProjected 12th GW 2 · 6 places ahead Actual 6thProjected 12th GW 3 · 3 places ahead Actual 7thProjected 10th GW 4 · 2 places behind Projected 10thActual 12th GW 5 · 2 places behind Projected 7thActual 9th GW 6 · 4 places behind Projected 7thActual 11th GW 7 · 2 places behind Projected 9thActual 11th GW 8 Projected 9th GW 9 Projected 6th GW 10 Projected 7th GW 11 Projected 10th GW 12 Projected 10th GW 13 Projected 10th GW 14 Projected 10th GW 15 Projected 9th GW 16 Projected 9th GW 17 Projected 10th GW 18 Projected 10th GW 19 Projected 10th GW 20 Projected 10th GW 21 Projected 10th GW 22 Projected 10th GW 23 Projected 10th GW 24 Projected 10th GW 25 Projected 10th GW 26 Projected 10th GW 27 Projected 10th GW 28 Projected 10th GW 29 Projected 10th GW 30 Projected 10th GW 31 Projected 10th GW 32 Projected 10th GW 33 Projected 10th GW 34 Projected 10th GW 35 Projected 10th GW 36 Projected 10th GW 37 Projected 10th GW 38 Projected 10th

Where Newcastle United actually are, week by week, against where the pre-season projection had them – shaded green while they run ahead of it, red while they run behind. Point at any gameweek for both figures.

Next up

Newcastle United 0–1 Aston Villa

Saturday 17th October 2026 (Kick Off: 17:30) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

whichteamwillwin.com
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Newcastle United win

0–1Full time

Newcastle United crest
◀ Newcastle win Aston Villa win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Aston Villa crest

Knife-edge – Newcastle United shade it

NEW AVL W-D-L-W-L L-D-L-W-D Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-D-D-W D-W-L-D-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.00 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.52 1.24 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.30 1.88 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 65% 71% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Above average 1539 Strong 1587 Elo performance 1500 is average 4.5 4.1 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.53 1.48 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven NEW AVL W-D-L-W-L L-D-L-W-D Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-D-D-W D-W-L-D-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.00 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.52 1.24 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.30 1.88 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 65% 71% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Above average 1539 Strong 1587 Elo performance 1500 is average 4.5 4.1 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.53 1.48 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven

The key stat: XI attacking output. No other measure separates them as clearly. Newcastle United lead it, 2.30 to 1.88. the side naming the more potent eleven normally comes out on top here – 71% of the time in recent seasons. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callKnife-edge – Newcastle United 43%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 31%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Newcastle United comes from home advantage, a cup tie in the other side's legs and the midweek cup round.
  • For Newcastle UnitedGoal difference at this venue 1.00 v -0.40 (clear); Home and away form W-W-D-D-W v D-W-L-D-W (useful); XI attacking output 2.30 v 1.88 (useful).
  • For Aston VillaGK save rate 71% v 65% (clear); Elo performance 1587 v 1539 (slight); Goal difference -0.20 v -0.60 (slight).
  • FormNewcastle United W-D-L-W-L, Aston Villa L-D-L-W-D.
Newcastle United 4-2-3-1 confirmedAston Villa 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

21 L. Horníček 3 L. Hall 4 S. Botman 12 M. Thiaw 67 L. Miley 7 Joelinton 6 Nico González 11 H. Barnes 9 Y. Wissa 28 J. Willock 20 M. Fernandez-Pardo
1 Z. Suzuki 29 Wan-Bissaka 5 T. Mings 3 V. Lindelöf 2 M. Cash 35 João Gomes 8 B. Kamara 44 J. Manzambi 10 E. Buendía 47 Alysson 11 N. Jackson
  1. L. Horníček
  2. L. Hall
  3. S. Botman
  4. M. Thiaw
  5. L. Miley
  6. Joelinton
  7. Nico González
  8. H. Barnes
  9. Y. Wissa
  10. J. Willock
  11. M. Fernandez-Pardo
  1. Z. Suzuki
  2. A. Wan-Bissaka
  3. T. Mings
  4. V. Lindelöf
  5. M. Cash
  6. João Gomes
  7. B. Kamara
  8. J. Manzambi
  9. E. Buendía
  10. Alysson
  11. N. Jackson

Substitutes A. Bamba, D. Burn, A. Dedić, J. Murphy, W. Osula, N. Pope, F. Schär, S. Steur, B. Touré

Substitutes R. Barkley, M. Bizot, L. Bogarde, Pau Torres, L. Goretzka, T. Harwood-Bellis, B. Madjo, I. Mbaye, J. McGinn

Our call: 43% NEW · 26% draw · 31% AVL  ·  bookmakers: 42% / 26% / 32%  ·  expected goals 1.52–1.24

Last updated 17 Oct at 17:20

Crystal Palace vs. Newcastle United

Sunday 25th October 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 8

whichteamwillwin.com

Newcastle United win

Crystal Palace crest
◀ Crystal Palace win Newcastle win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Newcastle United crest

Knife-edge – Newcastle United shade it

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CRY NEW W-L-D-W-L D-L-W-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -1.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-L-L-L-W D-L-W-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 -1.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 40% 60% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.38 1.44 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.68 1.51 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.84 1.55 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.97 2.34 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.20 1.01 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 67% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Average 1505 Above average 1529 Elo performance 1500 is average CRY NEW W-L-D-W-L D-L-W-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -1.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-L-L-L-W D-L-W-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 -1.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 40% 60% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.38 1.44 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.68 1.51 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.84 1.55 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.97 2.34 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.20 1.01 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 67% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Average 1505 Above average 1529 Elo performance 1500 is average

The key stat: Defence. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Newcastle United lead it, 1.51 to 2.68. When this gap appears, the side with the tighter defence tends to win, in around 66% of cases. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callKnife-edge – Crystal Palace 36%, draw 26%, Newcastle United 38%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Newcastle United comes from a cup tie in the other side's legs, the defence in front of them and the long-run strength gap.
  • For Newcastle UnitedPossession 60% v 40% (decisive); Defence 1.51 v 2.68 (decisive); XI defensive record 1.55 v 1.84 (clear).
  • For Crystal PalaceGoal difference -0.60 v -1.20 (slight); Goal difference at this venue -0.60 v -1.20 (slight); GK save rate 67% v 65% (slight).
  • FormCrystal Palace W-L-D-W-L, Newcastle United D-L-W-L-L.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1 expected · 10 unavailable · 1 doubtfulNewcastle United 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

44 Benitez 25 A. Khalaili 26 C. Richards 3 T. Mitchell 6 J. Canvot 21 H. Ahanor 20 A. Wharton 18 D. Kamada 23 Q. Timber 10 Yeremy 22 J. Strand Larsen
21 Horníček 3 L. Hall 12 M. Thiaw 4 S. Botman 11 H. Barnes 67 L.Miley 28 J. Willock 6 N.Gonzalez 23 J.Murphy 9 Y. Wissa 20 M. Fernandez-Pardo
  1. Benitez80%
  2. A. Khalaili98%
  3. C. Richards98%
  4. T. Mitchell97%
  5. J. Canvot80%
  6. H. Ahanor38%
  7. A. Wharton98%
  8. D. Kamada98%
  9. Q. Timber94%
  10. Yeremy91%
  11. J. Strand Larsen79%
  1. Horníček98%
  2. L. Hall98%
  3. M. Thiaw98%
  4. S. Botman98%
  5. H. Barnes98%
  6. L.Miley94%
  7. J. Willock74%
  8. N.Gonzalez72%
  9. J.Murphy55%
  10. Y. Wissa98%
  11. M. Fernandez-Pardo75%

Likely subs A. Disasi, D. Osorio, Lerma, J. Mateta, I. Sarr, E. Nketiah, D. McNeil

Likely subs Dedić, S. Steur, W. Osula, B. Touré, N. Pope, F. Schär, D. Burn

Doubts R. Cardines unavailable, T. Tomiyasu injured, D. Henderson doubtful, B. Chilwell injured, J. Devenny unavailable, R. Esse unavailable, C. Uche unavailable, M.França unavailable

Doubts A. Elanga injured, S. Neave unavailable, E. Jaouen injured, L. Shahar unavailable, T. Livramento injured, J.Ramsey injured, N. Woltemade unavailable, A.Murphy unavailable

Our call: 36% CRY · 26% draw · 38% NEW  ·  bookmakers: 34% / 26% / 40%  ·  expected goals 1.38–1.44

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Newcastle United vs. Everton

Monday 2nd November 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 9

whichteamwillwin.com

Newcastle United win

Newcastle United crest
◀ Newcastle win Everton win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers
Everton crest

Knife-edge – Newcastle United shade it

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NEW EVE D-L-W-L-L D-D-W-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches -1.20 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-D-W-L D-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 54% 46% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.59 1.31 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.55 1.36 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 65% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.34 2.27 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.01 1.19 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 4.3 4.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game NEW EVE D-L-W-L-L D-D-W-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches -1.20 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-D-W-L D-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 54% 46% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.59 1.31 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.55 1.36 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 65% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.34 2.27 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.01 1.19 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 4.3 4.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: XI defensive record. No other measure separates them as clearly. Everton lead it, 1.36 to 1.55. the side with the steadier back line normally comes out on top here – 69% of the time in recent seasons. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

Against the call – it favours Everton; the fine margin sits with Newcastle United, who edge home advantage.

  • The callKnife-edge – Newcastle United 44%, draw 25%, Everton 31%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Newcastle United comes from home advantage.
  • For Newcastle UnitedPossession 54% v 46% (useful); Home and away form W-D-D-W-L v D-L-D-D-D (useful); Goal difference at this venue 0.40 v -0.20 (slight).
  • For EvertonGoal difference -0.20 v -1.20 (useful); XI defensive record 1.36 v 1.55 (useful); GK save rate 69% v 65% (useful).
  • FormNewcastle United D-L-W-L-L, Everton D-D-W-D-L.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailableEverton 4-2-3-1 expected · 3 unavailable Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Everton 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

21 Horníček 3 L. Hall 12 M. Thiaw 4 S. Botman 11 H. Barnes 67 L.Miley 28 J. Willock 6 N.Gonzalez 23 J.Murphy 9 Y. Wissa 20 M. Fernandez-Pardo
1 J. Pickford 6 J. Tarkowski 4 Branthwaite 16 V. Mykolenko 2 Maitland-Niles 8 K. Dewsbury-Hall 37 J. Garner 45 H. Armstrong 22 B. Johnson 10 J. Grealish 11 T. Barry
  1. Horníček98%
  2. L. Hall98%
  3. M. Thiaw98%
  4. S. Botman98%
  5. H. Barnes98%
  6. L.Miley94%
  7. J. Willock74%
  8. N.Gonzalez72%
  9. J.Murphy55%
  10. Y. Wissa98%
  11. M. Fernandez-Pardo75%
  1. J. Pickford98%
  2. J. Tarkowski98%
  3. J. Branthwaite98%
  4. V. Mykolenko80%
  5. A. Maitland-Niles75%
  6. K. Dewsbury-Hall98%
  7. J. Garner98%
  8. H. Armstrong98%
  9. B. Johnson72%
  10. J. Grealish62%
  11. T. Barry98%

Likely subs Dedić, S. Steur, W. Osula, B. Touré, N. Pope, F. Schär, D. Burn

Likely subs T. George, M. Röhl, M. Travers, H. Hackney, T. Dibling, Alcaraz, C. Nørgaard

Doubts A. Elanga injured, S. Neave unavailable, E. Jaouen injured, L. Shahar unavailable, T. Livramento injured, J.Ramsey injured, N. Woltemade unavailable, A.Murphy unavailable

Doubts A. Aznou unavailable, Beto unavailable, N. Patterson unavailable

Our call: 43% NEW · 25% draw · 31% EVE  ·  bookmakers: 44% / 26% / 31%  ·  expected goals 1.59–1.31

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 16:17 · checked today at 10:57

Fulham vs. Newcastle United

Saturday 7th November 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 10

whichteamwillwin.com

Fulham win

Fulham crest
◀ Fulham win Newcastle win ▶ 27% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Newcastle United crest

Knife-edge – Fulham shade it

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FUL NEW L-D-D-L-W D-L-W-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.20 -1.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-L-L-D-W D-L-W-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.20 -1.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.41 1.25 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.50 1.01 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.25 1.55 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 69% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.68 2.34 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.20 1.51 Defence Conceded per game FUL NEW L-D-D-L-W D-L-W-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.20 -1.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-L-L-D-W D-L-W-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.20 -1.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.41 1.25 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.50 1.01 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.25 1.55 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 69% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.68 2.34 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.20 1.51 Defence Conceded per game

The key stat: Attack. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Fulham lead it, 1.50 to 1.01. When this gap appears, the side scoring more freely tends to win, in around 72% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callKnife-edge – Fulham 40%, draw 27%, Newcastle United 33%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Fulham comes from home advantage, the defence in front of them and what this eleven creates.
  • For FulhamXI defensive record 1.25 v 1.55 (clear); Goal difference at this venue 0.20 v -1.20 (clear); Attack 1.50 v 1.01 (useful).
  • For Newcastle UnitedNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormFulham L-D-D-L-W, Newcastle United D-L-W-L-L.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Fulham 4-2-3-1 expected · 3 unavailable · 1 doubtfulNewcastle United 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Fulham 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 B. Leno 3 C. Bassey 22 Affengruber 33 A. Robinson 21 T. Castagne 19 S. Charles 17 A. Iwobi 24 J. King 14 O. Bobb 16 S. Berge 7 Gonzalo
21 Horníček 3 L. Hall 12 M. Thiaw 4 S. Botman 11 H. Barnes 67 L.Miley 28 J. Willock 6 N.Gonzalez 23 J.Murphy 9 Y. Wissa 20 M. Fernandez-Pardo
  1. B. Leno98%
  2. C. Bassey98%
  3. D. Affengruber80%
  4. A. Robinson79%
  5. T. Castagne78%
  6. S. Charles97%
  7. A. Iwobi96%
  8. J. King95%
  9. O. Bobb92%
  10. S. Berge81%
  11. Gonzalo97%
  1. Horníček98%
  2. L. Hall98%
  3. M. Thiaw98%
  4. S. Botman98%
  5. H. Barnes98%
  6. L.Miley94%
  7. J. Willock74%
  8. N.Gonzalez72%
  9. J.Murphy55%
  10. Y. Wissa98%
  11. M. Fernandez-Pardo75%

Likely subs B. Lecomte, Muniz, C. Palacios, Kevin, J. Andersen, Ángel, T. Cairney

Likely subs Dedić, S. Steur, W. Osula, B. Touré, N. Pope, F. Schär, D. Burn

Doubts R. Sessegnon suspended, A. McNally unavailable, L. De Fougerolles unavailable, H. Larsson doubtful

Doubts A. Elanga injured, S. Neave unavailable, E. Jaouen injured, L. Shahar unavailable, T. Livramento injured, J.Ramsey injured, N. Woltemade unavailable, A.Murphy unavailable

Our call: 40% FUL · 27% draw · 33% NEW  ·  expected goals 1.41–1.25

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 16:17 · checked today at 10:57

Newcastle United vs. Arsenal

Saturday 21st November 2026 (Kick Off: 17:30) · Gameweek 11

whichteamwillwin.com

Arsenal win

Newcastle United crest
◀ Newcastle win Arsenal win ▶ 24% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Arsenal crest

Confidence: Fair

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NEW ARS D-L-W-L-L W-W-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches -1.20 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-D-W-L W-W-W-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 0.98 1.79 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Above average 1529 Exceptional 1757 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 65% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.51 0.71 Defence Conceded per game 2.34 2.81 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.55 0.95 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 4.3 4.9 Exp: Shots on target Per game NEW ARS D-L-W-L-L W-W-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches -1.20 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-D-W-L W-W-W-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 0.98 1.79 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Above average 1529 Exceptional 1757 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 65% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.51 0.71 Defence Conceded per game 2.34 2.81 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.55 0.95 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 4.3 4.9 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: Elo performance. No other measure separates them as clearly. Arsenal lead it, Exceptional to Above average. the better-rated side normally comes out on top here – 75% of the time in recent seasons. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callArsenal to win: 56% against 20%, with the draw at 24%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, the defence in front of them and recent shots on target – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For ArsenalXI defensive record 0.95 v 1.55 (decisive); Elo performance 1757 v 1529 (decisive); GK save rate 75% v 65% (decisive).
  • For Newcastle UnitedNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormNewcastle United D-L-W-L-L, Arsenal W-W-L-W-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailableArsenal 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Arsenal 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

21 Horníček 3 L. Hall 12 M. Thiaw 4 S. Botman 11 H. Barnes 67 L.Miley 28 J. Willock 6 N.Gonzalez 23 J.Murphy 9 Y. Wissa 20 M. Fernandez-Pardo
1 Raya 6 Gabriel 15 Konsa 33 R. Calafiori 4 B. White 7 B. Saka 41 D. Rice 8 M. Ødegaard 49 Lewis-Skelly 39 Bruno G. 29 K. Havertz
  1. Horníček98%
  2. L. Hall98%
  3. M. Thiaw98%
  4. S. Botman98%
  5. H. Barnes98%
  6. L.Miley94%
  7. J. Willock74%
  8. N.Gonzalez72%
  9. J.Murphy55%
  10. Y. Wissa98%
  11. M. Fernandez-Pardo75%
  1. Raya98%
  2. Gabriel98%
  3. Konsa98%
  4. R. Calafiori97%
  5. B. White71%
  6. B. Saka98%
  7. D. Rice98%
  8. M. Ødegaard97%
  9. M. Lewis-Skelly51%
  10. Bruno G.41%
  11. K. Havertz94%

Likely subs Dedić, S. Steur, W. Osula, B. Touré, N. Pope, F. Schär, D. Burn

Likely subs J.Timber, V. Gyökeres, N. Madueke, Merino, M. Dowman, C. Mosquera, Zubimendi

Doubts A. Elanga injured, S. Neave unavailable, E. Jaouen injured, L. Shahar unavailable, T. Livramento injured, J.Ramsey injured, N. Woltemade unavailable, A.Murphy unavailable

Doubts C. Tzolis injured, Hincapie injured, Martinelli unavailable, W. Saliba injured, G.Jesus unavailable, Fábio Vieira unavailable, R. Nelson unavailable, E. Nwaneri unavailable

Our call: 20% NEW · 24% draw · 56% ARS  ·  expected goals 0.98–1.79

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

The whole season

All 38 of Newcastle United's league matches, what we said would happen, and – where it has been played – what actually did. We have called 3 of 5 of their decided matches so far; 2 were draws, which nobody scores. Rows marked projected are today's model looking ahead: they move every time the season is re-projected, so they are not frozen and are never graded. Everything else is the call we published before kick-off.

GWKick-offOpponentWinDrawLoseOur callResultCalled it?
1 Sun 23 Aug, 16:30 Liverpool (H) 34% 25% 42% LoseConfidence: Knife-edge 2–2
2 Sat 29 Aug, 17:30 Tottenham Hotspur (A) 37% 26% 37% WinConfidence: Knife-edge 2–0
3 Sat 5 Sept, 12:30 Bournemouth (H) 38% 27% 35% WinConfidence: Knife-edge 2–2
4 Mon 14 Sept, 20:00 Leeds United (A) 32% 27% 41% LoseConfidence: Knife-edge 1–4
5 Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 Hull City (H) 60% 23% 17% WinConfidence: Strong 2–1
6 Mon 12 Oct, 20:00 Coventry City (A) 45% 26% 29% WinConfidence: Slight 1–4
7 Sat 17 Oct, 17:30 Aston Villa (H) 43% 26% 31% WinConfidence: Knife-edge 0–1
8 Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 Crystal Palace (A) 38% 26% 36% WinConfidence: Knife-edge –
9 Mon 2 Nov, 20:00 Everton (H) 43% 25% 31% WinConfidence: Knife-edge –
10 Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 Fulham (A) 33% 27% 40% LoseConfidence: Knife-edge –
11 Sat 21 Nov, 17:30 Arsenal (H) 20% 24% 56% LoseConfidence: Fair –
12 Sun 29 Nov, 14:05 Brighton & Hove Albion (A) 24% 25% 51% LoseProjected: Fair –
13 Wed 2 Dec, 20:00 Manchester United (H) 34% 26% 40% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
14 Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 Sunderland (H) 50% 25% 25% WinProjected: Fair –
15 Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 Ipswich Town (A) 47% 25% 28% WinProjected: Slight –
16 Sat 19 Dec, 15:00 Brentford (A) 31% 26% 43% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
17 Sat 26 Dec, 20:00 Manchester City (H) 23% 24% 53% LoseProjected: Fair –
18 Wed 30 Dec, 19:30 Nottingham Forest (H) 46% 26% 28% WinProjected: Slight –
19 Sun 3 Jan, 14:00 Chelsea (A) 27% 25% 48% LoseProjected: Slight –
20 Thu 7 Jan, 20:00 Manchester United (A) 23% 24% 53% LoseProjected: Fair –
21 Sat 16 Jan, 15:00 Fulham (H) 44% 26% 30% WinProjected: Slight –
22 Sat 23 Jan, 15:00 Arsenal (A) 12% 19% 69% LoseProjected: Very strong –
23 Sat 30 Jan, 15:00 Brighton & Hove Albion (H) 35% 27% 38% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
24 Sat 6 Feb, 15:00 Everton (A) 31% 26% 43% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
25 Wed 10 Feb, 20:00 Chelsea (H) 38% 26% 35% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
26 Sat 20 Feb, 15:00 Manchester City (A) 14% 20% 66% LoseProjected: Strong –
27 Sat 27 Feb, 15:00 Brentford (H) 43% 26% 31% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
28 Wed 3 Mar, 20:00 Nottingham Forest (A) 33% 26% 40% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
29 Sat 13 Mar, 15:00 Bournemouth (A) 25% 25% 50% LoseProjected: Fair –
30 Sat 20 Mar, 15:00 Leeds United (H) 47% 26% 27% WinProjected: Slight –
31 Sat 10 Apr, 15:00 Liverpool (A) 20% 23% 57% LoseProjected: Strong –
32 Sat 17 Apr, 15:00 Tottenham Hotspur (H) 52% 25% 23% WinProjected: Fair –
33 Sat 24 Apr, 15:00 Ipswich Town (H) 60% 22% 18% WinProjected: Strong –
34 Sat 1 May, 15:00 Sunderland (A) 38% 26% 36% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
35 Sat 8 May, 15:00 Coventry City (H) 55% 24% 21% WinProjected: Fair –
36 Sat 15 May, 15:00 Aston Villa (A) 25% 25% 50% LoseProjected: Fair –
37 Sun 23 May, 15:00 Crystal Palace (H) 51% 25% 24% WinProjected: Fair –
38 Sun 30 May, 16:00 Hull City (A) 45% 26% 29% WinProjected: Slight –

Called the winner Called it wrong Drawn – no winner to call