Which Team Will Win?

Fulham vs. Newcastle United

Saturday 7th November 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 10

whichteamwillwin.com

Fulham win

Fulham crest
◀ Fulham win Newcastle win ▶ 27% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Newcastle United crest

Knife-edge – Fulham shade it

MoreLess
FUL NEW L-D-D-L-W D-L-W-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.20 -1.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-L-L-D-W D-L-W-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.20 -1.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.41 1.25 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.50 1.01 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.25 1.55 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 69% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.68 2.34 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.20 1.51 Defence Conceded per game FUL NEW L-D-D-L-W D-L-W-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.20 -1.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-L-L-D-W D-L-W-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.20 -1.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.41 1.25 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.50 1.01 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.25 1.55 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 69% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.68 2.34 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.20 1.51 Defence Conceded per game

The key stat: Attack. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Fulham lead it, 1.50 to 1.01. When this gap appears, the side scoring more freely tends to win, in around 72% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callKnife-edge – Fulham 40%, draw 27%, Newcastle United 33%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Fulham comes from home advantage, the defence in front of them and what this eleven creates.
  • For FulhamXI defensive record 1.25 v 1.55 (clear); Goal difference at this venue 0.20 v -1.20 (clear); Attack 1.50 v 1.01 (useful).
  • For Newcastle UnitedNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormFulham L-D-D-L-W, Newcastle United D-L-W-L-L.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Fulham 4-2-3-1 expected · 3 unavailable · 1 doubtfulNewcastle United 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Fulham 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 B. Leno 3 C. Bassey 22 Affengruber 33 A. Robinson 21 T. Castagne 19 S. Charles 17 A. Iwobi 24 J. King 14 O. Bobb 16 S. Berge 7 Gonzalo
21 Horníček 3 L. Hall 12 M. Thiaw 4 S. Botman 11 H. Barnes 67 L.Miley 28 J. Willock 6 N.Gonzalez 23 J.Murphy 9 Y. Wissa 20 M. Fernandez-Pardo
  1. B. Leno98%
  2. C. Bassey98%
  3. D. Affengruber80%
  4. A. Robinson79%
  5. T. Castagne78%
  6. S. Charles97%
  7. A. Iwobi96%
  8. J. King95%
  9. O. Bobb92%
  10. S. Berge81%
  11. Gonzalo97%
  1. Horníček98%
  2. L. Hall98%
  3. M. Thiaw98%
  4. S. Botman98%
  5. H. Barnes98%
  6. L.Miley94%
  7. J. Willock74%
  8. N.Gonzalez72%
  9. J.Murphy55%
  10. Y. Wissa98%
  11. M. Fernandez-Pardo75%

Likely subs B. Lecomte, Muniz, C. Palacios, Kevin, J. Andersen, Ángel, T. Cairney

Likely subs Dedić, S. Steur, W. Osula, B. Touré, N. Pope, F. Schär, D. Burn

Doubts R. Sessegnon suspended, A. McNally unavailable, L. De Fougerolles unavailable, H. Larsson doubtful

Doubts A. Elanga injured, S. Neave unavailable, E. Jaouen injured, L. Shahar unavailable, T. Livramento injured, J.Ramsey injured, N. Woltemade unavailable, A.Murphy unavailable

Our call: 40% FUL · 27% draw · 33% NEW  ·  expected goals 1.41–1.25

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 16:17 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ FulhamNewcastle ▸Goals
Home advantage 0.27
Long-run strength 0.11
Defence 0.03
XI attacking output 0.03
XI defensive record 0.02
Settled eleven 0.01
Everything else 0.08
Fulham ahead by 0.16

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Fulham come out 0.16 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Newcastle goals Fulham goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Fulham 0–0 Newcastle: 7% Fulham 0–1 Newcastle: 8% Fulham 0–2 Newcastle: 5% Fulham 0–3 Newcastle: 2% Fulham 0–4 Newcastle: <1% Fulham 0–5 Newcastle: <1% Fulham 1–0 Newcastle: 9% Fulham 1–1 Newcastle: 13% Fulham 1–2 Newcastle: 8% Fulham 1–3 Newcastle: 3% Fulham 1–4 Newcastle: 1% Fulham 1–5 Newcastle: <1% Fulham 1–6 Newcastle: <1% Fulham 2–0 Newcastle: 7% Fulham 2–1 Newcastle: 9% Fulham 2–2 Newcastle: 5% Fulham 2–3 Newcastle: 2% Fulham 2–4 Newcastle: <1% Fulham 2–5 Newcastle: <1% Fulham 3–0 Newcastle: 3% Fulham 3–1 Newcastle: 4% Fulham 3–2 Newcastle: 3% Fulham 3–3 Newcastle: 1% Fulham 3–4 Newcastle: <1% Fulham 3–5 Newcastle: <1% Fulham 4–0 Newcastle: 1% Fulham 4–1 Newcastle: 1% Fulham 4–2 Newcastle: <1% Fulham 4–3 Newcastle: <1% Fulham 4–4 Newcastle: <1% Fulham 5–0 Newcastle: <1% Fulham 5–1 Newcastle: <1% Fulham 5–2 Newcastle: <1% Fulham 5–3 Newcastle: <1% Fulham 6–0 Newcastle: <1% Fulham 6–1 Newcastle: <1% Fulham 6–2 Newcastle: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Fulham win, above it Newcastle do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →