Which Team Will Win?

Tottenham Hotspur

Where we have Tottenham Hotspur finishing, the matches they have next, and every call we have made about them this season – frozen at kick-off, right or wrong.

Projected league position, week by week

If the season plays out as the model expects, Tottenham Hotspur finish 17th on 27 points.

1st 4th 10th 17th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 2nd ARS · 3 pts14th SUN · 0 pts15th NFO · 0 pts18th COV · 0 pts19th TOT · 0 pts GW 2 2nd ARS · 6 pts11th SUN · 3 pts15th NFO · 1 pts17th COV · 0 pts20th TOT · 0 pts GW 3 2nd ARS · 9 pts12th SUN · 4 pts16th NFO · 2 pts18th TOT · 1 pts20th COV · 0 pts GW 4 1st ARS · 12 pts11th NFO · 5 pts14th SUN · 4 pts17th TOT · 2 pts20th COV · 0 pts GW 5 2nd ARS · 12 pts13th NFO · 5 pts14th SUN · 4 pts18th COV · 3 pts20th TOT · 2 pts GW 6 2nd ARS · 15 pts14th COV · 6 pts15th NFO · 5 pts17th SUN · 4 pts19th TOT · 3 pts GW 7 · projected 2nd ARS · 18 pts16th TOT · 6 pts17th COV · 6 pts19th NFO · 5 pts20th SUN · 4 pts GW 8 · projected 2nd ARS · 21 pts14th NFO · 8 pts16th SUN · 7 pts19th COV · 6 pts20th TOT · 6 pts GW 9 · projected 2nd ARS · 24 pts13th SUN · 10 pts16th TOT · 9 pts18th NFO · 8 pts20th COV · 6 pts GW 10 · projected 2nd ARS · 27 pts15th SUN · 10 pts17th TOT · 9 pts18th NFO · 8 pts20th COV · 6 pts GW 11 · projected 2nd ARS · 30 pts14th TOT · 12 pts16th SUN · 10 pts18th COV · 9 pts19th NFO · 8 pts GW 12 · projected 2nd ARS · 33 pts13th SUN · 13 pts15th TOT · 12 pts19th COV · 9 pts20th NFO · 8 pts GW 13 · projected 2nd ARS · 36 pts14th SUN · 13 pts16th TOT · 12 pts17th COV · 12 pts18th NFO · 11 pts GW 14 · projected 2nd ARS · 39 pts14th SUN · 13 pts16th TOT · 12 pts17th COV · 12 pts18th NFO · 11 pts GW 15 · projected 2nd ARS · 42 pts14th SUN · 16 pts16th TOT · 12 pts17th COV · 12 pts18th NFO · 11 pts GW 16 · projected 2nd ARS · 45 pts12th SUN · 19 pts16th NFO · 14 pts17th TOT · 12 pts18th COV · 12 pts GW 17 · projected 2nd ARS · 48 pts13th SUN · 19 pts16th NFO · 14 pts17th TOT · 12 pts18th COV · 12 pts GW 18 · projected 2nd ARS · 51 pts13th SUN · 19 pts16th NFO · 14 pts17th TOT · 12 pts18th COV · 12 pts GW 19 · projected 2nd ARS · 54 pts12th SUN · 22 pts15th NFO · 17 pts17th TOT · 12 pts18th COV · 12 pts GW 20 · projected 2nd ARS · 57 pts13th SUN · 22 pts15th NFO · 20 pts17th COV · 12 pts18th TOT · 12 pts GW 21 · projected 2nd ARS · 60 pts13th SUN · 22 pts15th NFO · 20 pts17th TOT · 15 pts18th COV · 12 pts GW 22 · projected 2nd ARS · 63 pts13th SUN · 25 pts15th NFO · 20 pts17th TOT · 15 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 23 · projected 2nd ARS · 63 pts13th SUN · 25 pts15th NFO · 20 pts16th TOT · 18 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 24 · projected 2nd ARS · 66 pts13th SUN · 25 pts14th NFO · 23 pts15th TOT · 21 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 25 · projected 2nd ARS · 69 pts13th SUN · 28 pts15th NFO · 23 pts16th TOT · 21 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 26 · projected 2nd ARS · 72 pts13th SUN · 28 pts15th NFO · 23 pts16th TOT · 21 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 27 · projected 2nd ARS · 75 pts13th SUN · 28 pts15th NFO · 23 pts17th TOT · 21 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 28 · projected 2nd ARS · 78 pts13th SUN · 28 pts15th NFO · 26 pts17th TOT · 21 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 29 · projected 2nd ARS · 81 pts14th SUN · 28 pts15th NFO · 26 pts16th TOT · 24 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 30 · projected 2nd ARS · 84 pts14th SUN · 28 pts15th NFO · 26 pts17th TOT · 24 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 31 · projected 2nd ARS · 87 pts13th SUN · 31 pts15th NFO · 26 pts17th TOT · 24 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 32 · projected 2nd ARS · 90 pts14th SUN · 31 pts15th NFO · 26 pts17th TOT · 24 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 33 · projected 2nd ARS · 93 pts14th SUN · 31 pts15th NFO · 29 pts16th TOT · 27 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 34 · projected 2nd ARS · 96 pts14th SUN · 31 pts15th NFO · 29 pts16th TOT · 27 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 35 · projected 2nd ARS · 99 pts14th NFO · 32 pts15th SUN · 31 pts16th TOT · 27 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 36 · projected 2nd ARS · 102 pts14th NFO · 32 pts15th SUN · 31 pts16th TOT · 27 pts19th COV · 15 pts GW 37 · projected 2nd ARS · 105 pts14th NFO · 35 pts15th SUN · 31 pts16th TOT · 27 pts19th COV · 15 pts GW 38 · projected 2nd ARS · 108 pts14th NFO · 38 pts15th SUN · 31 pts17th TOT · 27 pts19th COV · 15 pts
Tottenham Hotspur Sunderland relegationCoventry City relegationNottingham Forest relegationArsenal derby
Tottenham Hotspur solid to the last match played, dashed for the forecast. Rivals are dotted throughout, with a dot on their last match played. The white lines are the ones a season is played against – the title, the Champions League places, Europe, and the drop.

Real results so far plus a called outcome for every match still to play, recalculated as results come in. Drawn beside them are the clubs they are actually racing: their usual rivals, and whoever this season has put them in the same fight with. Point at any gameweek for every club's position and points.

Against pre-season expectations

They are 6 places behind our projection.

1st 10th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 · 3 places behind Projected 16thActual 19th GW 2 · 7 places behind Projected 13thActual 20th GW 3 · 5 places behind Projected 13thActual 18th GW 4 · 4 places behind Projected 13thActual 17th GW 5 · 5 places behind Projected 15thActual 20th GW 6 · 3 places behind Projected 16thActual 19th GW 7 · 6 places behind Projected 14thActual 20th GW 8 Projected 15th GW 9 Projected 15th GW 10 Projected 13th GW 11 Projected 13th GW 12 Projected 14th GW 13 Projected 12th GW 14 Projected 13th GW 15 Projected 12th GW 16 Projected 13th GW 17 Projected 13th GW 18 Projected 13th GW 19 Projected 15th GW 20 Projected 16th GW 21 Projected 14th GW 22 Projected 15th GW 23 Projected 14th GW 24 Projected 15th GW 25 Projected 16th GW 26 Projected 16th GW 27 Projected 16th GW 28 Projected 17th GW 29 Projected 17th GW 30 Projected 17th GW 31 Projected 17th GW 32 Projected 17th GW 33 Projected 15th GW 34 Projected 17th GW 35 Projected 16th GW 36 Projected 15th GW 37 Projected 16th GW 38 Projected 17th

Where Tottenham Hotspur actually are, week by week, against where the pre-season projection had them – shaded green while they run ahead of it, red while they run behind. Point at any gameweek for both figures.

Next up

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Coventry City

Monday 19th October 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 7

whichteamwillwin.com

Tottenham Hotspur win

Tottenham Hotspur crest
◀ Tottenham win Coventry win ▶ 27% draw chance bookmakers
Coventry City crest

Knife-edge – Tottenham Hotspur shade it

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TOT COV L-D-D-L-D L-L-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-L-D-L L-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.45 1.16 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.13 1.76 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 65% 61% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.27 1.54 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 3.5 3.7 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.19 1.10 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Below average 1454 Weak 1433 Elo performance 1500 is average TOT COV L-D-D-L-D L-L-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-L-D-L L-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.45 1.16 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.13 1.76 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 65% 61% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.27 1.54 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 3.5 3.7 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.19 1.10 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Below average 1454 Weak 1433 Elo performance 1500 is average

The key stat: Defence. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. Tottenham Hotspur lead it, 1.13 to 1.76. Historically, whoever was harder to score against takes these roughly 69% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callKnife-edge – Tottenham Hotspur 43%, draw 27%, Coventry City 30%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Tottenham Hotspur comes from home advantage, the long-run strength gap and the defence in front of them.
  • For Tottenham HotspurDefence 1.13 v 1.76 (clear); XI defensive record 1.27 v 1.54 (useful); GK save rate 65% v 61% (useful).
  • For Coventry CityShots on target 3.7 v 3.5 (marginal).
  • FormTottenham Hotspur L-D-D-L-D, Coventry City L-L-L-W-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1 expected · 16 unavailable · 1 doubtfulCoventry City 3-4-2-1 expected · 11 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Coventry City 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

31 Kinsky 6 J. Van Hecke 37 Van de Ven 3 A. Robertson 16 S. Tonali 14 A. Gray 18 M. Fernandes 11 M. Tel 8 C. Gallagher 22 O. Marmoush 19 Solanke
19 C. Rushworth 4 B. Thomas 3 J. Dasilva 2 E. Pinnock 27 M. van Ewijk 21 J. Bidwell 6 M. Grimes 5 J. Rudoni 10 E. Mason-Clark 8 C. Yirenkyi 14 T. Awoniyi
  1. Kinsky98%
  2. J. Van Hecke98%
  3. M. Van de Ven81%
  4. A. Robertson61%
  5. S. Tonali98%
  6. A. Gray64%
  7. M. Fernandes54%
  8. M. Tel39%
  9. C. Gallagher38%
  10. O. Marmoush80%
  11. Solanke57%
  1. C. Rushworth98%
  2. B. Thomas98%
  3. J. Dasilva98%
  4. E. Pinnock81%
  5. M. van Ewijk80%
  6. J. BidwellNEW40%
  7. M. Grimes98%
  8. J. Rudoni92%
  9. E. Mason-Clark86%
  10. C. Yirenkyi61%
  11. T. Awoniyi55%

Likely subs D. Udogie, M. Kudus, J. Maddison, Tosin, M. Dubravka, B. Davies, Senesi

Likely subs Y. Gboho, F. Onyeka, B. Thomas-Asante, B. Wilson, V. Torp, G. Hamer, E. Simms

Doubts R. Bentancur suspended, Sávio injured, Pedro Porro injured, A. Phillips unavailable, L. Bergvall injured, M. Mudryk injured, M. Moore unavailable, D. Kulusevski doubtful

Doubts A. Amenda injured, H. Wright injured, L. Kitching unavailable, M. Brau unavailable, J. Markelo unavailable, O. Dovin unavailable, J. Eccles injured, K. Kesler-Hayden doubtful

Our call: 43% TOT · 27% draw · 30% COV  ·  bookmakers: 64% / 21% / 15%  ·  expected goals 1.45–1.16

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 14:16 · checked today at 10:57

Chelsea vs. Tottenham Hotspur

Saturday 24th October 2026 (Kick Off: 17:30) · Gameweek 8

whichteamwillwin.com

Chelsea win

Chelsea crest
◀ Chelsea win Tottenham win ▶ 22% draw chance bookmakers
Tottenham Hotspur crest

Confidence: Strong

MoreLess
CHE TOT L-D-L-W-W L-D-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-W-D-W W-L-L-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 48% 52% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.97 0.86 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 71% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 4.7 3.5 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.43 1.27 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Strong 1580 Below average 1454 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.43 1.13 Defence Conceded per game CHE TOT L-D-L-W-W L-D-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-W-D-W W-L-L-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 48% 52% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.97 0.86 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 71% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 4.7 3.5 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.43 1.27 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Strong 1580 Below average 1454 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.43 1.13 Defence Conceded per game

The key stat: GK save rate. No other measure separates them as clearly. Chelsea come out on top, 71% against 65%. the side with the goalkeeper in better form normally comes out on top here – 71% of the time in recent seasons. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callChelsea to win: 63% against 15%, with the draw at 22%. Confidence strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target – the strongest pull the other way is the defence in front of them.
  • For ChelseaGoals 1.97 v 0.86 (clear); GK save rate 71% v 65% (clear); Home and away form L-W-W-D-W v W-L-L-D-D (clear).
  • For Tottenham HotspurDefence 1.13 v 1.43 (useful); XI defensive record 1.27 v 1.43 (useful); Possession 52% v 48% (slight).
  • FormChelsea L-D-L-W-W, Tottenham Hotspur L-D-D-L-D.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Chelsea 3-4-2-1 expected · 11 unavailable · 2 doubtfulTottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1 expected · 16 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Chelsea 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

39 M. Penders 5 M. Lacroix 6 L. Colwill 34 J. Acheampong 3 W. Fofana 10 C. Palmer 17 M. Rogers 7 P. Neto 14 J. Henderson 25 Caicedo 9 João Pedro
31 Kinsky 6 J. Van Hecke 37 Van de Ven 3 A. Robertson 16 S. Tonali 14 A. Gray 18 M. Fernandes 11 M. Tel 8 C. Gallagher 22 O. Marmoush 19 Solanke
  1. M. Penders25%
  2. M. Lacroix80%
  3. L. Colwill80%
  4. J. Acheampong62%
  5. W. Fofana58%
  6. C. Palmer98%
  7. M. Rogers98%
  8. P. Neto98%
  9. J. Henderson60%
  10. Caicedo38%
  11. João Pedro78%
  1. Kinsky98%
  2. J. Van Hecke98%
  3. M. Van de Ven81%
  4. A. Robertson61%
  5. S. Tonali98%
  6. A. Gray64%
  7. M. Fernandes54%
  8. M. Tel39%
  9. C. Gallagher38%
  10. O. Marmoush80%
  11. Solanke57%

Likely subs J. Hato, R. Lavia, Chavarria, Estêvão, D. Welbeck, V. Barco, M. Palestra

Likely subs D. Udogie, M. Kudus, J. Maddison, Tosin, M. Dubravka, B. Davies, Senesi

Doubts Martinez injured, Chavarria doubtful, R. James injured, M. Gusto doubtful, E. Emegha injured, J. Gittens injured, T. Chalobah unavailable, F. Jörgensen unavailable

Doubts R. Bentancur suspended, Sávio injured, Pedro Porro injured, A. Phillips unavailable, L. Bergvall injured, M. Mudryk injured, M. Moore unavailable, D. Kulusevski doubtful

Our call: 63% CHE · 22% draw · 15% TOT  ·  bookmakers: 54% / 23% / 23%  ·  expected goals 1.97–0.86

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Crystal Palace

Saturday 31st October 2026 (Kick Off: 17:30) · Gameweek 9

whichteamwillwin.com

Tottenham Hotspur win

Tottenham Hotspur crest
◀ Tottenham win Crystal Palace win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Crystal Palace crest

Knife-edge – Tottenham Hotspur shade it

MoreLess
TOT CRY L-D-D-L-D W-L-D-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-L-D-L D-L-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 -1.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 60% 40% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.44 1.30 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.13 2.68 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.27 1.84 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Below average 1454 Average 1505 Elo performance 1500 is average 3.5 3.9 Exp: Shots on target Per game 2.30 1.97 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven TOT CRY L-D-D-L-D W-L-D-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-L-D-L D-L-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 -1.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 60% 40% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.44 1.30 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.13 2.68 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.27 1.84 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Below average 1454 Average 1505 Elo performance 1500 is average 3.5 3.9 Exp: Shots on target Per game 2.30 1.97 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven

The key stat: Defence. No other measure separates them as clearly. It goes to Tottenham Hotspur: 1.13 to 2.68. whoever was harder to score against normally comes out on top here – 69% of the time in recent seasons. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callKnife-edge – Tottenham Hotspur 40%, draw 26%, Crystal Palace 34%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Tottenham Hotspur comes from home advantage, the defence in front of them and a cup tie in the other side's legs.
  • For Tottenham HotspurPossession 60% v 40% (decisive); Defence 1.13 v 2.68 (decisive); XI defensive record 1.27 v 1.84 (decisive).
  • For Crystal PalaceElo performance 1505 v 1454 (slight); Shots on target 3.9 v 3.5 (slight).
  • FormTottenham Hotspur L-D-D-L-D, Crystal Palace W-L-D-W-L.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1 expected · 16 unavailable · 1 doubtfulCrystal Palace 3-4-2-1 expected · 10 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

31 Kinsky 6 J. Van Hecke 37 Van de Ven 3 A. Robertson 16 S. Tonali 14 A. Gray 18 M. Fernandes 11 M. Tel 8 C. Gallagher 22 O. Marmoush 19 Solanke
44 Benitez 25 A. Khalaili 26 C. Richards 3 T. Mitchell 6 J. Canvot 21 H. Ahanor 20 A. Wharton 18 D. Kamada 23 Q. Timber 10 Yeremy 22 J. Strand Larsen
  1. Kinsky98%
  2. J. Van Hecke98%
  3. M. Van de Ven81%
  4. A. Robertson61%
  5. S. Tonali98%
  6. A. Gray64%
  7. M. Fernandes54%
  8. M. Tel39%
  9. C. Gallagher38%
  10. O. Marmoush80%
  11. Solanke57%
  1. Benitez80%
  2. A. Khalaili98%
  3. C. Richards98%
  4. T. Mitchell97%
  5. J. Canvot80%
  6. H. Ahanor38%
  7. A. Wharton98%
  8. D. Kamada98%
  9. Q. Timber94%
  10. Yeremy91%
  11. J. Strand Larsen79%

Likely subs D. Udogie, M. Kudus, J. Maddison, Tosin, M. Dubravka, B. Davies, Senesi

Likely subs A. Disasi, D. Osorio, Lerma, J. Mateta, I. Sarr, E. Nketiah, D. McNeil

Doubts R. Bentancur suspended, Sávio injured, Pedro Porro injured, A. Phillips unavailable, L. Bergvall injured, M. Mudryk injured, M. Moore unavailable, D. Kulusevski doubtful

Doubts R. Cardines unavailable, T. Tomiyasu injured, D. Henderson doubtful, B. Chilwell injured, J. Devenny unavailable, R. Esse unavailable, C. Uche unavailable, M.França unavailable

Our call: 40% TOT · 26% draw · 34% CRY  ·  bookmakers: 56% / 24% / 20%  ·  expected goals 1.44–1.30

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Leeds United vs. Tottenham Hotspur

Saturday 7th November 2026 (Kick Off: 12:30) · Gameweek 10

whichteamwillwin.com

Leeds United win

Leeds United crest
◀ Leeds United win Tottenham win ▶ 27% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Tottenham Hotspur crest

Confidence: Slight

MoreLess
LEE TOT D-W-D-L-D L-D-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-W-D-D W-L-L-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 45% 55% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.48 1.04 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.33 1.27 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Average 1518 Below average 1454 Elo performance 1500 is average 74% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.56 1.13 Defence Conceded per game 1.31 1.19 Attack Goals and expected goals per game LEE TOT D-W-D-L-D L-D-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-W-D-D W-L-L-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 45% 55% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.48 1.04 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.33 1.27 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Average 1518 Below average 1454 Elo performance 1500 is average 74% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.56 1.13 Defence Conceded per game 1.31 1.19 Attack Goals and expected goals per game

The key stat: XI defensive record. This is the widest gap between them. It goes to Tottenham Hotspur: 1.27 to 1.33. In matches like this, whoever fielded the more solid defence usually wins – about 74% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

Against the call – it favours Tottenham Hotspur; Leeds United are tipped because they lead on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and changes in the other camp.

  • The callLeeds United to win: 47% against 26%, with the draw at 27%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and changes in the other camp – the strongest pull the other way is the defence in front of them.
  • For Leeds UnitedGK save rate 74% v 65% (decisive); Goal difference at this venue 0.80 v -0.60 (clear); Home and away form W-D-W-D-D v W-L-L-D-D (useful).
  • For Tottenham HotspurPossession 55% v 45% (clear); Defence 1.13 v 1.56 (useful); XI defensive record 1.27 v 1.33 (marginal).
  • FormLeeds United D-W-D-L-D, Tottenham Hotspur L-D-D-L-D.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Leeds United 3-4-2-1 expected · 7 unavailable · 1 doubtfulTottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1 expected · 16 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Leeds United 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 J. Trafford 5 T. Muharemović 3 G. Gudmundsson 24 J. Justin 30 N. Elvedi 2 J. Bogle 18 A. Stach 4 E. Ampadu 22 Tanaka 19 N. Okafor 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
31 Kinsky 6 J. Van Hecke 37 Van de Ven 3 A. Robertson 16 S. Tonali 14 A. Gray 18 M. Fernandes 11 M. Tel 8 C. Gallagher 22 O. Marmoush 19 Solanke
  1. J. Trafford98%
  2. T. Muharemović98%
  3. G. Gudmundsson98%
  4. J. Justin98%
  5. N. Elvedi98%
  6. J. Bogle94%
  7. A. Stach98%
  8. E. Ampadu98%
  9. Tanaka92%
  10. N. Okafor91%
  11. D. Calvert-Lewin97%
  1. Kinsky98%
  2. J. Van Hecke98%
  3. M. Van de Ven81%
  4. A. Robertson61%
  5. S. Tonali98%
  6. A. Gray64%
  7. M. Fernandes54%
  8. M. Tel39%
  9. C. Gallagher38%
  10. O. Marmoush80%
  11. Solanke57%

Likely subs H. Wilson, L. Nmecha, B. Aaronson, J. Bijol, I. Gruev, J. Bahoya, S. Longstaff

Likely subs D. Udogie, M. Kudus, J. Maddison, Tosin, M. Dubravka, B. Davies, Senesi

Doubts D. James doubtful, W. Gnonto unavailable, J. Harrison unavailable, J. Piroe unavailable, L. Perri unavailable, S. Bornauw unavailable, Mateo Joseph injured, J. Rodon injured

Doubts R. Bentancur suspended, Sávio injured, Pedro Porro injured, A. Phillips unavailable, L. Bergvall injured, M. Mudryk injured, M. Moore unavailable, D. Kulusevski doubtful

Our call: 47% LEE · 27% draw · 26% TOT  ·  expected goals 1.48–1.04

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Ipswich Town

Saturday 21st November 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 11

whichteamwillwin.com

Tottenham Hotspur win

Tottenham Hotspur crest
◀ Tottenham win Ipswich Town win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Ipswich Town crest

Confidence: Fair

MoreLess
TOT IPS L-D-D-L-D L-W-L-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-L-D-L L-L-W-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 -1.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 54% 46% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.63 1.09 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.27 1.76 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Below average 1454 Weak 1388 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.13 1.88 Defence Conceded per game 65% 58% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 3.5 4.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game TOT IPS L-D-D-L-D L-W-L-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-L-D-L L-L-W-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 -1.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 54% 46% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.63 1.09 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.27 1.76 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Below average 1454 Weak 1388 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.13 1.88 Defence Conceded per game 65% 58% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 3.5 4.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: XI defensive record. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. Tottenham Hotspur come out on top, 1.27 against 1.76. Historically, the side with the steadier back line takes these roughly 74% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callTottenham Hotspur to win: 50% against 25%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and the defence in front of them – the strongest pull the other way is recent shots on target.
  • For Tottenham HotspurXI defensive record 1.27 v 1.76 (decisive); Defence 1.13 v 1.88 (decisive); GK save rate 65% v 58% (clear).
  • For Ipswich TownShots on target 4.2 v 3.5 (slight); Goal difference -0.40 v -0.60 (marginal).
  • FormTottenham Hotspur L-D-D-L-D, Ipswich Town L-W-L-W-L.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1 expected · 16 unavailable · 1 doubtfulIpswich Town 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

31 Kinsky 6 J. Van Hecke 37 Van de Ven 3 A. Robertson 16 S. Tonali 14 A. Gray 18 M. Fernandes 11 M. Tel 8 C. Gallagher 22 O. Marmoush 19 Solanke
28 C. Walton 26 D. O'Shea 3 L. Davis 6 I. Diop 42 A. Ouattara 10 J. Enciso 25 E. Palacios 23 S. Lukić 38 D. Maeda 7 A. Fatawu 19 Emersonn
  1. Kinsky98%
  2. J. Van Hecke98%
  3. M. Van de Ven81%
  4. A. Robertson61%
  5. S. Tonali98%
  6. A. Gray64%
  7. M. Fernandes54%
  8. M. Tel39%
  9. C. Gallagher38%
  10. O. Marmoush80%
  11. Solanke57%
  1. C. Walton60%
  2. D. O'Shea98%
  3. L. Davis98%
  4. I. Diop98%
  5. A. Ouattara61%
  6. J. Enciso96%
  7. E. Palacios80%
  8. S. Lukić77%
  9. D. Maeda59%
  10. A. Fatawu56%
  11. Emersonn91%

Likely subs D. Udogie, M. Kudus, J. Maddison, Tosin, M. Dubravka, B. Davies, Senesi

Likely subs J. Greaves, K. Scherpen, J. Clarke, Florentino, Z. Flemming, J. Philogene, C. Akpom

Doubts R. Bentancur suspended, Sávio injured, Pedro Porro injured, A. Phillips unavailable, L. Bergvall injured, M. Mudryk injured, M. Moore unavailable, D. Kulusevski doubtful

Doubts K. Van Oevelen unavailable, C. Humphreys unavailable, W. Burns unavailable, G. Hirst unavailable, S. Szmodics unavailable, A. Al-Hamadi unavailable, C. Ogbene unavailable, B. Johnson unavailable

Our call: 50% TOT · 25% draw · 25% IPS  ·  expected goals 1.63–1.09

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 16:17 · checked today at 10:57

The whole season

All 38 of Tottenham Hotspur's league matches, what we said would happen, and – where it has been played – what actually did. We have called 3 of 3 of their decided matches so far; 3 were draws, which nobody scores. Rows marked projected are today's model looking ahead: they move every time the season is re-projected, so they are not frozen and are never graded. Everything else is the call we published before kick-off.

GWKick-offOpponentWinDrawLoseOur callResultCalled it?
1 Sat 22 Aug, 17:30 Brentford (A) 28% 26% 46% LoseConfidence: Slight 0–3
2 Sat 29 Aug, 17:30 Newcastle United (H) 37% 26% 37% LoseConfidence: Knife-edge 0–2
3 Sat 5 Sept, 15:00 Nottingham Forest (A) 26% 26% 49% LoseConfidence: Fair 0–0
4 Sat 12 Sept, 17:30 Everton (H) 34% 27% 40% LoseConfidence: Knife-edge 0–0
5 Sat 19 Sept, 12:30 Aston Villa (H) 33% 27% 40% LoseConfidence: Knife-edge 2–3
6 Sat 10 Oct, 17:30 Manchester United (A) 15% 20% 65% LoseConfidence: Strong 1–1
7 Mon 19 Oct, 20:00 Coventry City (H) 43% 27% 30% WinConfidence: Knife-edge –
8 Sat 24 Oct, 17:30 Chelsea (A) 15% 22% 63% LoseConfidence: Strong –
9 Sat 31 Oct, 17:30 Crystal Palace (H) 40% 26% 34% WinConfidence: Knife-edge –
10 Sat 7 Nov, 12:30 Leeds United (A) 26% 27% 47% LoseConfidence: Slight –
11 Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 Ipswich Town (H) 50% 25% 25% WinConfidence: Fair –
12 Sun 29 Nov, 14:05 Sunderland (A) 29% 26% 46% LoseProjected: Slight –
13 Wed 2 Dec, 20:00 Fulham (H) 35% 27% 38% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
14 Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 Arsenal (H) 14% 21% 65% LoseProjected: Strong –
15 Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 Hull City (A) 35% 27% 38% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
16 Sat 19 Dec, 15:00 Liverpool (A) 14% 20% 66% LoseProjected: Strong –
17 Sat 26 Dec, 15:00 Bournemouth (H) 28% 26% 46% LoseProjected: Slight –
18 Tue 29 Dec, 19:30 Brighton & Hove Albion (H) 27% 26% 47% LoseProjected: Slight –
19 Sun 3 Jan, 16:30 Manchester City (A) 9% 16% 74% LoseProjected: Very strong –
20 Wed 6 Jan, 19:30 Fulham (A) 24% 26% 51% LoseProjected: Fair –
21 Sat 16 Jan, 15:00 Leeds United (H) 37% 28% 35% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
22 Sat 23 Jan, 15:00 Crystal Palace (A) 29% 26% 45% LoseProjected: Slight –
23 Sat 30 Jan, 15:00 Sunderland (H) 41% 26% 33% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
24 Sat 6 Feb, 15:00 Ipswich Town (A) 37% 27% 36% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
25 Wed 10 Feb, 20:00 Manchester City (H) 16% 21% 62% LoseProjected: Strong –
26 Sat 20 Feb, 15:00 Brighton & Hove Albion (A) 17% 23% 60% LoseProjected: Strong –
27 Sat 27 Feb, 15:00 Liverpool (H) 23% 25% 53% LoseProjected: Fair –
28 Wed 3 Mar, 20:00 Bournemouth (A) 18% 23% 59% LoseProjected: Strong –
29 Sat 13 Mar, 15:00 Nottingham Forest (H) 37% 27% 36% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
30 Sat 20 Mar, 15:00 Everton (A) 23% 25% 52% LoseProjected: Fair –
31 Sat 10 Apr, 15:00 Brentford (H) 34% 27% 40% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
32 Sat 17 Apr, 15:00 Newcastle United (A) 23% 25% 52% LoseProjected: Fair –
33 Sat 24 Apr, 15:00 Hull City (H) 48% 26% 26% WinProjected: Slight –
34 Sat 1 May, 15:00 Arsenal (A) 8% 16% 76% LoseProjected: Very strong –
35 Sat 8 May, 15:00 Chelsea (H) 30% 26% 44% LoseProjected: Slight –
36 Sat 15 May, 15:00 Coventry City (A) 33% 27% 40% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
37 Sun 23 May, 15:00 Manchester United (H) 26% 25% 49% LoseProjected: Fair –
38 Sun 30 May, 16:00 Aston Villa (A) 18% 23% 59% LoseProjected: Strong –

Called the winner Called it wrong Drawn – no winner to call