Which Team Will Win?

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Coventry City

Monday 19th October 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 7

whichteamwillwin.com

Tottenham Hotspur win

Tottenham Hotspur crest
◀ Tottenham win Coventry win ▶ 27% draw chance bookmakers
Coventry City crest

Knife-edge – Tottenham Hotspur shade it

MoreLess
TOT COV L-D-D-L-D L-L-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-L-D-L L-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.45 1.16 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.13 1.76 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 65% 61% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.27 1.54 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 3.5 3.7 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.19 1.10 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Below average 1454 Weak 1433 Elo performance 1500 is average TOT COV L-D-D-L-D L-L-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-L-D-L L-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.45 1.16 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.13 1.76 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 65% 61% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.27 1.54 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 3.5 3.7 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.19 1.10 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Below average 1454 Weak 1433 Elo performance 1500 is average

The key stat: Defence. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. Tottenham Hotspur lead it, 1.13 to 1.76. Historically, whoever was harder to score against takes these roughly 69% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callKnife-edge – Tottenham Hotspur 43%, draw 27%, Coventry City 30%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Tottenham Hotspur comes from home advantage, the long-run strength gap and the defence in front of them.
  • For Tottenham HotspurDefence 1.13 v 1.76 (clear); XI defensive record 1.27 v 1.54 (useful); GK save rate 65% v 61% (useful).
  • For Coventry CityShots on target 3.7 v 3.5 (marginal).
  • FormTottenham Hotspur L-D-D-L-D, Coventry City L-L-L-W-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1 expected · 16 unavailable · 1 doubtfulCoventry City 3-4-2-1 expected · 11 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Coventry City 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

31 Kinsky 6 J. Van Hecke 37 Van de Ven 3 A. Robertson 16 S. Tonali 14 A. Gray 18 M. Fernandes 11 M. Tel 8 C. Gallagher 22 O. Marmoush 19 Solanke
19 C. Rushworth 4 B. Thomas 3 J. Dasilva 2 E. Pinnock 27 M. van Ewijk 21 J. Bidwell 6 M. Grimes 5 J. Rudoni 10 E. Mason-Clark 8 C. Yirenkyi 14 T. Awoniyi
  1. Kinsky98%
  2. J. Van Hecke98%
  3. M. Van de Ven81%
  4. A. Robertson61%
  5. S. Tonali98%
  6. A. Gray64%
  7. M. Fernandes54%
  8. M. Tel39%
  9. C. Gallagher38%
  10. O. Marmoush80%
  11. Solanke57%
  1. C. Rushworth98%
  2. B. Thomas98%
  3. J. Dasilva98%
  4. E. Pinnock81%
  5. M. van Ewijk80%
  6. J. BidwellNEW40%
  7. M. Grimes98%
  8. J. Rudoni92%
  9. E. Mason-Clark86%
  10. C. Yirenkyi61%
  11. T. Awoniyi55%

Likely subs D. Udogie, M. Kudus, J. Maddison, Tosin, M. Dubravka, B. Davies, Senesi

Likely subs Y. Gboho, F. Onyeka, B. Thomas-Asante, B. Wilson, V. Torp, G. Hamer, E. Simms

Doubts R. Bentancur suspended, Sávio injured, Pedro Porro injured, A. Phillips unavailable, L. Bergvall injured, M. Mudryk injured, M. Moore unavailable, D. Kulusevski doubtful

Doubts A. Amenda injured, H. Wright injured, L. Kitching unavailable, M. Brau unavailable, J. Markelo unavailable, O. Dovin unavailable, J. Eccles injured, K. Kesler-Hayden doubtful

Our call: 43% TOT · 27% draw · 30% COV  ·  bookmakers: 64% / 21% / 15%  ·  expected goals 1.45–1.16

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 14:16 · checked today at 10:57

What separates them

Reason◂ TottenhamCoventry ▸Goals
Home advantage 0.26
Long-run strength 0.08
Defence 0.06
Settled eleven 0.04
XI strength vs usual 0.02
Shots on target 0.02
Everything else 0.05
Tottenham ahead by 0.29

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Tottenham come out 0.29 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Coventry goals Tottenham goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Tottenham 0–0 Coventry: 8% Tottenham 0–1 Coventry: 8% Tottenham 0–2 Coventry: 5% Tottenham 0–3 Coventry: 2% Tottenham 0–4 Coventry: <1% Tottenham 0–5 Coventry: <1% Tottenham 1–0 Coventry: 10% Tottenham 1–1 Coventry: 13% Tottenham 1–2 Coventry: 7% Tottenham 1–3 Coventry: 3% Tottenham 1–4 Coventry: <1% Tottenham 1–5 Coventry: <1% Tottenham 2–0 Coventry: 8% Tottenham 2–1 Coventry: 9% Tottenham 2–2 Coventry: 5% Tottenham 2–3 Coventry: 2% Tottenham 2–4 Coventry: <1% Tottenham 2–5 Coventry: <1% Tottenham 3–0 Coventry: 4% Tottenham 3–1 Coventry: 4% Tottenham 3–2 Coventry: 3% Tottenham 3–3 Coventry: <1% Tottenham 3–4 Coventry: <1% Tottenham 3–5 Coventry: <1% Tottenham 4–0 Coventry: 1% Tottenham 4–1 Coventry: 2% Tottenham 4–2 Coventry: <1% Tottenham 4–3 Coventry: <1% Tottenham 4–4 Coventry: <1% Tottenham 5–0 Coventry: <1% Tottenham 5–1 Coventry: <1% Tottenham 5–2 Coventry: <1% Tottenham 5–3 Coventry: <1% Tottenham 6–0 Coventry: <1% Tottenham 6–1 Coventry: <1% Tottenham 6–2 Coventry: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Tottenham win, above it Coventry do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →