Which Team Will Win?

Predicted final table

Every match called outright and the whole points added up – three for the side we named, because the working behind a call is complicated and a league table is not. Nobody wins 71.4 points. A match already played counts for what actually happened, on every tab – points won are facts and no call outranks a fact. The Current view recalculates after every match; behind it sit the calls we recorded at fixed checkpoints – pre-season, then after every club has played ten games, twenty, thirty – so you can see what we said then, measured against how it is actually going. On the first tab a call is always a winner; the second calls a draw wherever a match sits inside the draw zone – the same too-close-to-call band the match cards use.

Recalculated after every match – 7 rounds of results in, today's calls for the rest.

Qualification#ClubPWDLGFGAGDPts
C 1 Manchester City 7/38 37 0 1 81 39 +42 111
CL 2 Arsenal 7/38 36 0 2 74 33 +41 108
CL 3 Liverpool 7/38 29 3 6 62 43 +19 90
CL 4 Brighton & Hove Albion 7/38 29 1 8 70 43 +27 88
EL 5 Bournemouth 7/38 25 3 10 57 51 +5 78
CF 6 Manchester United 7/38 24 4 10 61 50 +11 76
7 Chelsea 7/38 25 1 12 63 53 +10 76
8 Aston Villa 7/38 23 2 13 53 50 +4 71
9 Brentford 7/38 18 4 16 56 53 +4 58
10 Newcastle United 7/38 17 2 19 52 59 -7 53
11 Everton 7/38 16 4 18 49 51 -2 52
12 Fulham 7/38 14 2 22 47 54 -8 44
13 Leeds United 7/38 13 4 21 46 50 -4 43
14 Nottingham Forest 7/38 12 2 24 44 54 -10 38
15 Sunderland 7/38 10 1 27 45 63 -18 31
16 Crystal Palace 7/38 9 1 28 47 67 -21 28
17 Tottenham Hotspur 6/38 8 3 27 39 60 -21 27
R 18 Hull City 7/38 5 3 30 41 62 -21 18
R 19 Coventry City 6/38 5 0 33 41 64 -24 15
R 20 Ipswich Town 7/38 5 0 33 44 71 -28 15

Manchester City – position under this forecast, week by week

1st 4th 10th 17th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 1st BHA · 3 pts2nd ARS · 3 pts8th MCI · 3 pts17th MUN · 0 pts GW 2 1st MCI · 6 pts2nd ARS · 6 pts9th BHA · 3 pts10th MUN · 3 pts GW 3 1st MCI · 9 pts2nd ARS · 9 pts10th BHA · 4 pts11th MUN · 4 pts GW 4 1st ARS · 12 pts2nd MCI · 12 pts5th BHA · 7 pts13th MUN · 4 pts GW 5 1st MCI · 15 pts2nd ARS · 12 pts3rd BHA · 10 pts12th MUN · 5 pts GW 6 1st MCI · 18 pts2nd ARS · 15 pts3rd BHA · 13 pts13th MUN · 6 pts GW 7 1st MCI · 21 pts2nd ARS · 18 pts3rd BHA · 16 pts13th MUN · 7 pts GW 8 · projected 1st MCI · 24 pts2nd ARS · 21 pts3rd BHA · 16 pts9th MUN · 10 pts GW 9 · projected 1st MCI · 27 pts2nd ARS · 24 pts4th BHA · 16 pts11th MUN · 10 pts GW 10 · projected 1st MCI · 30 pts2nd ARS · 27 pts4th BHA · 19 pts9th MUN · 13 pts GW 11 · projected 1st MCI · 33 pts2nd ARS · 30 pts4th BHA · 22 pts12th MUN · 13 pts GW 12 · projected 1st MCI · 33 pts2nd ARS · 33 pts4th BHA · 25 pts10th MUN · 16 pts GW 13 · projected 1st MCI · 36 pts2nd ARS · 36 pts5th BHA · 25 pts9th MUN · 19 pts GW 14 · projected 1st MCI · 39 pts2nd ARS · 39 pts5th BHA · 28 pts8th MUN · 22 pts GW 15 · projected 1st MCI · 42 pts2nd ARS · 42 pts4th BHA · 31 pts7th MUN · 25 pts GW 16 · projected 1st MCI · 45 pts2nd ARS · 45 pts4th BHA · 34 pts8th MUN · 25 pts GW 17 · projected 1st MCI · 48 pts2nd ARS · 48 pts4th BHA · 37 pts8th MUN · 28 pts GW 18 · projected 1st MCI · 51 pts2nd ARS · 51 pts4th BHA · 40 pts7th MUN · 31 pts GW 19 · projected 1st MCI · 54 pts2nd ARS · 54 pts4th BHA · 43 pts8th MUN · 31 pts GW 20 · projected 1st MCI · 57 pts2nd ARS · 57 pts4th BHA · 46 pts7th MUN · 34 pts GW 21 · projected 1st MCI · 60 pts2nd ARS · 60 pts4th BHA · 49 pts7th MUN · 34 pts GW 22 · projected 1st MCI · 63 pts2nd ARS · 63 pts5th BHA · 49 pts7th MUN · 37 pts GW 23 · projected 1st MCI · 66 pts2nd ARS · 63 pts5th BHA · 52 pts7th MUN · 40 pts GW 24 · projected 1st MCI · 69 pts2nd ARS · 66 pts3rd BHA · 55 pts7th MUN · 43 pts GW 25 · projected 1st MCI · 72 pts2nd ARS · 69 pts4th BHA · 55 pts7th MUN · 46 pts GW 26 · projected 1st MCI · 75 pts2nd ARS · 72 pts4th BHA · 58 pts7th MUN · 49 pts GW 27 · projected 1st MCI · 78 pts2nd ARS · 75 pts4th BHA · 61 pts8th MUN · 49 pts GW 28 · projected 1st MCI · 81 pts2nd ARS · 78 pts4th BHA · 64 pts7th MUN · 52 pts GW 29 · projected 1st MCI · 84 pts2nd ARS · 81 pts4th BHA · 67 pts7th MUN · 55 pts GW 30 · projected 1st MCI · 87 pts2nd ARS · 84 pts4th BHA · 70 pts8th MUN · 55 pts GW 31 · projected 1st MCI · 90 pts2nd ARS · 87 pts4th BHA · 70 pts8th MUN · 58 pts GW 32 · projected 1st MCI · 93 pts2nd ARS · 90 pts4th BHA · 73 pts7th MUN · 61 pts GW 33 · projected 1st MCI · 96 pts2nd ARS · 93 pts4th BHA · 76 pts7th MUN · 64 pts GW 34 · projected 1st MCI · 99 pts2nd ARS · 96 pts4th BHA · 79 pts7th MUN · 67 pts GW 35 · projected 1st MCI · 102 pts2nd ARS · 99 pts4th BHA · 82 pts7th MUN · 67 pts GW 36 · projected 1st MCI · 105 pts2nd ARS · 102 pts4th BHA · 85 pts7th MUN · 70 pts GW 37 · projected 1st MCI · 108 pts2nd ARS · 105 pts3rd BHA · 88 pts6th MUN · 73 pts GW 38 · projected 1st MCI · 111 pts2nd ARS · 108 pts4th BHA · 88 pts6th MUN · 76 pts
Manchester City solid to the last match played, dashed for the forecast. Rivals are dotted throughout, with a dot on their last match played. The white lines are the ones a season is played against – the title, the Champions League places, Europe, and the drop.

Our pre-season calls fill the matches still to play – recomputed Thu 15 Oct, 18:37 as the model improves (see model history below). 7 rounds of results in, counted as results, not calls.

Qualification#ClubPWDLGFGAGDPts
C 1 Manchester City 7/38 37 0 1 89 41 +48 111
CL 2 Arsenal 7/38 36 0 2 75 36 +39 108
CL 3 Liverpool 7/38 28 3 7 64 47 +17 87
CL 4 Aston Villa 7/38 27 2 9 59 50 +8 83
EL 5 Brighton & Hove Albion 7/38 27 1 10 73 47 +26 82
CF 6 Manchester United 7/38 26 4 8 64 48 +16 82
7 Bournemouth 7/38 20 3 15 53 53 +1 63
8 Chelsea 7/38 20 1 17 61 55 +5 61
9 Everton 7/38 16 4 18 53 53 0 52
10 Newcastle United 7/38 16 2 20 53 59 -6 50
11 Brentford 7/38 15 4 19 53 53 +1 49
12 Nottingham Forest 7/38 14 2 22 47 56 -9 44
13 Leeds United 7/38 13 4 21 49 53 -4 43
14 Sunderland 7/38 14 1 23 45 59 -14 43
15 Fulham 7/38 13 2 23 47 54 -7 41
16 Crystal Palace 7/38 12 1 25 49 65 -16 37
17 Tottenham Hotspur 6/38 11 3 24 44 59 -15 36
R 18 Coventry City 6/38 8 0 30 42 63 -21 24
R 19 Ipswich Town 7/38 4 0 34 43 76 -33 12
R 20 Hull City 7/38 3 3 32 40 75 -36 12

Manchester City – position under this forecast, week by week

1st 4th 10th 17th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 1st BHA · 3 pts2nd ARS · 3 pts8th MCI · 3 pts17th MUN · 0 pts GW 2 1st MCI · 6 pts2nd ARS · 6 pts9th BHA · 3 pts10th MUN · 3 pts GW 3 1st MCI · 9 pts2nd ARS · 9 pts10th BHA · 4 pts11th MUN · 4 pts GW 4 1st ARS · 12 pts2nd MCI · 12 pts5th BHA · 7 pts13th MUN · 4 pts GW 5 1st MCI · 15 pts2nd ARS · 12 pts3rd BHA · 10 pts12th MUN · 5 pts GW 6 1st MCI · 18 pts2nd ARS · 15 pts3rd BHA · 13 pts13th MUN · 6 pts GW 7 1st MCI · 21 pts2nd ARS · 18 pts3rd BHA · 16 pts13th MUN · 7 pts GW 8 · projected 1st MCI · 24 pts2nd ARS · 21 pts3rd BHA · 16 pts8th MUN · 10 pts GW 9 · projected 1st MCI · 27 pts2nd ARS · 24 pts3rd BHA · 16 pts7th MUN · 13 pts GW 10 · projected 1st MCI · 30 pts2nd ARS · 27 pts3rd BHA · 19 pts7th MUN · 16 pts GW 11 · projected 1st MCI · 33 pts2nd ARS · 30 pts3rd BHA · 22 pts7th MUN · 16 pts GW 12 · projected 1st MCI · 33 pts2nd ARS · 33 pts3rd BHA · 25 pts7th MUN · 19 pts GW 13 · projected 1st MCI · 36 pts2nd ARS · 36 pts4th BHA · 25 pts6th MUN · 22 pts GW 14 · projected 1st MCI · 39 pts2nd ARS · 39 pts4th BHA · 28 pts5th MUN · 25 pts GW 15 · projected 1st MCI · 42 pts2nd ARS · 42 pts4th BHA · 31 pts5th MUN · 28 pts GW 16 · projected 1st MCI · 45 pts2nd ARS · 45 pts4th BHA · 34 pts6th MUN · 28 pts GW 17 · projected 1st MCI · 48 pts2nd ARS · 48 pts4th BHA · 37 pts6th MUN · 31 pts GW 18 · projected 1st MCI · 51 pts2nd ARS · 51 pts3rd BHA · 40 pts6th MUN · 34 pts GW 19 · projected 1st MCI · 54 pts2nd ARS · 54 pts3rd BHA · 43 pts6th MUN · 34 pts GW 20 · projected 1st MCI · 57 pts2nd ARS · 57 pts3rd BHA · 46 pts6th MUN · 37 pts GW 21 · projected 1st MCI · 60 pts2nd ARS · 60 pts3rd BHA · 49 pts6th MUN · 37 pts GW 22 · projected 1st MCI · 63 pts2nd ARS · 63 pts3rd BHA · 49 pts6th MUN · 40 pts GW 23 · projected 1st MCI · 66 pts2nd ARS · 63 pts4th BHA · 49 pts6th MUN · 43 pts GW 24 · projected 1st MCI · 69 pts2nd ARS · 66 pts3rd BHA · 52 pts6th MUN · 46 pts GW 25 · projected 1st MCI · 72 pts2nd ARS · 69 pts5th BHA · 52 pts6th MUN · 49 pts GW 26 · projected 1st MCI · 75 pts2nd ARS · 72 pts5th BHA · 55 pts6th MUN · 52 pts GW 27 · projected 1st MCI · 78 pts2nd ARS · 75 pts5th BHA · 58 pts6th MUN · 52 pts GW 28 · projected 1st MCI · 81 pts2nd ARS · 78 pts4th BHA · 61 pts6th MUN · 55 pts GW 29 · projected 1st MCI · 84 pts2nd ARS · 81 pts4th BHA · 64 pts6th MUN · 58 pts GW 30 · projected 1st MCI · 87 pts2nd ARS · 84 pts4th BHA · 67 pts6th MUN · 58 pts GW 31 · projected 1st MCI · 90 pts2nd ARS · 87 pts5th BHA · 67 pts6th MUN · 61 pts GW 32 · projected 1st MCI · 93 pts2nd ARS · 90 pts4th BHA · 70 pts6th MUN · 64 pts GW 33 · projected 1st MCI · 96 pts2nd ARS · 93 pts5th BHA · 70 pts6th MUN · 67 pts GW 34 · projected 1st MCI · 99 pts2nd ARS · 96 pts5th BHA · 73 pts6th MUN · 70 pts GW 35 · projected 1st MCI · 102 pts2nd ARS · 99 pts5th BHA · 76 pts6th MUN · 73 pts GW 36 · projected 1st MCI · 105 pts2nd ARS · 102 pts5th BHA · 79 pts6th MUN · 76 pts GW 37 · projected 1st MCI · 108 pts2nd ARS · 105 pts4th BHA · 82 pts6th MUN · 79 pts GW 38 · projected 1st MCI · 111 pts2nd ARS · 108 pts5th BHA · 82 pts6th MUN · 82 pts
Manchester City solid to the last match played, dashed for the forecast. Rivals are dotted throughout, with a dot on their last match played. The white lines are the ones a season is played against – the title, the Champions League places, Europe, and the drop.

Recalculated after every match – 7 rounds of results in, today's calls for the rest.

Qualification#ClubPWDLGFGAGDPts
C 1 Manchester City 7/38 36 1 1 81 39 +42 109
CL 2 Arsenal 7/38 36 1 1 74 33 +41 109
CL 3 Liverpool 7/38 26 8 4 62 43 +19 86
CL 4 Brighton & Hove Albion 7/38 21 11 6 70 43 +27 74
EL 5 Manchester United 7/38 20 12 6 61 50 +11 72
CF 6 Chelsea 7/38 19 9 10 63 53 +10 66
7 Bournemouth 7/38 18 11 9 57 51 +5 65
8 Aston Villa 7/38 16 13 9 53 50 +4 61
9 Brentford 7/38 11 18 9 56 53 +4 51
10 Newcastle United 7/38 12 13 13 52 59 -7 49
11 Everton 7/38 10 18 10 49 51 -2 48
12 Leeds United 7/38 7 17 14 46 50 -4 38
13 Fulham 7/38 8 13 17 47 54 -8 37
14 Nottingham Forest 7/38 6 16 16 44 54 -10 34
15 Sunderland 7/38 6 12 20 45 63 -18 30
16 Crystal Palace 7/38 5 12 21 47 67 -21 27
17 Hull City 7/38 3 11 24 41 62 -21 20
R 18 Tottenham Hotspur 6/38 2 13 23 39 60 -21 19
R 19 Coventry City 6/38 3 10 25 41 64 -24 19
R 20 Ipswich Town 7/38 3 5 30 44 71 -28 14

Manchester City – position under this forecast, week by week

1st 4th 10th 17th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 1st BHA · 3 pts2nd ARS · 3 pts8th MCI · 3 pts17th MUN · 0 pts GW 2 1st MCI · 6 pts2nd ARS · 6 pts9th BHA · 3 pts10th MUN · 3 pts GW 3 1st MCI · 9 pts2nd ARS · 9 pts10th BHA · 4 pts11th MUN · 4 pts GW 4 1st ARS · 12 pts2nd MCI · 12 pts5th BHA · 7 pts13th MUN · 4 pts GW 5 1st MCI · 15 pts2nd ARS · 12 pts3rd BHA · 10 pts12th MUN · 5 pts GW 6 1st MCI · 18 pts2nd ARS · 15 pts3rd BHA · 13 pts13th MUN · 6 pts GW 7 1st MCI · 21 pts2nd ARS · 18 pts3rd BHA · 16 pts13th MUN · 7 pts GW 8 · projected 1st MCI · 24 pts2nd ARS · 21 pts3rd BHA · 16 pts8th MUN · 10 pts GW 9 · projected 1st MCI · 27 pts2nd ARS · 24 pts4th BHA · 16 pts9th MUN · 11 pts GW 10 · projected 1st MCI · 30 pts2nd ARS · 27 pts3rd BHA · 19 pts8th MUN · 14 pts GW 11 · projected 1st MCI · 33 pts2nd ARS · 30 pts3rd BHA · 22 pts10th MUN · 14 pts GW 12 · projected 1st MCI · 33 pts2nd ARS · 33 pts3rd BHA · 25 pts8th MUN · 17 pts GW 13 · projected 1st MCI · 36 pts2nd ARS · 36 pts3rd BHA · 26 pts7th MUN · 18 pts GW 14 · projected 1st MCI · 39 pts2nd ARS · 39 pts3rd BHA · 27 pts7th MUN · 21 pts GW 15 · projected 1st MCI · 42 pts2nd ARS · 42 pts3rd BHA · 30 pts7th MUN · 24 pts GW 16 · projected 1st MCI · 45 pts2nd ARS · 45 pts3rd BHA · 33 pts7th MUN · 24 pts GW 17 · projected 1st MCI · 48 pts2nd ARS · 48 pts4th BHA · 34 pts7th MUN · 27 pts GW 18 · projected 1st MCI · 51 pts2nd ARS · 51 pts3rd BHA · 37 pts7th MUN · 30 pts GW 19 · projected 1st MCI · 54 pts2nd ARS · 54 pts4th BHA · 38 pts7th MUN · 31 pts GW 20 · projected 1st MCI · 57 pts2nd ARS · 57 pts4th BHA · 41 pts6th MUN · 34 pts GW 21 · projected 1st MCI · 60 pts2nd ARS · 60 pts4th BHA · 42 pts6th MUN · 35 pts GW 22 · projected 1st MCI · 63 pts2nd ARS · 63 pts4th BHA · 42 pts6th MUN · 36 pts GW 23 · projected 1st MCI · 64 pts2nd ARS · 64 pts5th BHA · 43 pts7th MUN · 37 pts GW 24 · projected 1st MCI · 67 pts2nd ARS · 67 pts4th BHA · 46 pts6th MUN · 40 pts GW 25 · projected 1st MCI · 70 pts2nd ARS · 70 pts4th BHA · 46 pts6th MUN · 43 pts GW 26 · projected 1st MCI · 73 pts2nd ARS · 73 pts4th BHA · 49 pts6th MUN · 44 pts GW 27 · projected 1st MCI · 76 pts2nd ARS · 76 pts4th BHA · 52 pts7th MUN · 44 pts GW 28 · projected 1st MCI · 79 pts2nd ARS · 79 pts4th BHA · 55 pts7th MUN · 47 pts GW 29 · projected 1st MCI · 82 pts2nd ARS · 82 pts4th BHA · 56 pts7th MUN · 50 pts GW 30 · projected 1st MCI · 85 pts2nd ARS · 85 pts4th BHA · 59 pts7th MUN · 50 pts GW 31 · projected 1st MCI · 88 pts2nd ARS · 88 pts4th BHA · 60 pts7th MUN · 53 pts GW 32 · projected 1st MCI · 91 pts2nd ARS · 91 pts4th BHA · 63 pts6th MUN · 56 pts GW 33 · projected 1st MCI · 94 pts2nd ARS · 94 pts4th BHA · 64 pts5th MUN · 59 pts GW 34 · projected 1st MCI · 97 pts2nd ARS · 97 pts4th BHA · 67 pts5th MUN · 62 pts GW 35 · projected 1st MCI · 100 pts2nd ARS · 100 pts4th BHA · 70 pts5th MUN · 63 pts GW 36 · projected 1st MCI · 103 pts2nd ARS · 103 pts4th BHA · 73 pts5th MUN · 66 pts GW 37 · projected 1st MCI · 106 pts2nd ARS · 106 pts4th BHA · 74 pts5th MUN · 69 pts GW 38 · projected 1st MCI · 109 pts2nd ARS · 109 pts4th BHA · 74 pts5th MUN · 72 pts
Manchester City solid to the last match played, dashed for the forecast. Rivals are dotted throughout, with a dot on their last match played. The white lines are the ones a season is played against – the title, the Champions League places, Europe, and the drop.

Our pre-season calls fill the matches still to play – recomputed Thu 15 Oct, 18:37 as the model improves (see model history below). 7 rounds of results in, counted as results, not calls.

Qualification#ClubPWDLGFGAGDPts
C 1 Manchester City 7/38 37 1 0 89 41 +48 112
CL 2 Arsenal 7/38 34 2 2 75 36 +39 104
CL 3 Liverpool 7/38 24 9 5 64 47 +17 81
CL 4 Manchester United 7/38 23 11 4 64 48 +16 80
EL 5 Aston Villa 7/38 20 10 8 59 50 +8 70
CF 6 Brighton & Hove Albion 7/38 19 12 7 73 47 +26 69
7 Chelsea 7/38 16 12 10 61 55 +5 60
8 Bournemouth 7/38 13 15 10 53 53 +1 54
9 Everton 7/38 12 17 9 53 53 0 53
10 Newcastle United 7/38 13 11 14 53 59 -6 50
11 Brentford 7/38 10 15 13 53 53 +1 45
12 Fulham 7/38 9 14 15 47 54 -7 41
13 Leeds United 7/38 8 14 16 49 53 -4 38
14 Nottingham Forest 7/38 7 14 17 47 56 -9 35
15 Sunderland 7/38 8 11 19 45 59 -14 35
16 Crystal Palace 7/38 7 12 19 49 65 -16 33
17 Tottenham Hotspur 6/38 5 13 20 44 59 -15 28
R 18 Coventry City 6/38 4 11 23 42 63 -21 23
R 19 Ipswich Town 7/38 4 2 32 43 76 -33 14
R 20 Hull City 7/38 2 4 32 40 75 -36 10

Manchester City – position under this forecast, week by week

1st 4th 10th 17th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 1st BHA · 3 pts2nd ARS · 3 pts8th MCI · 3 pts17th MUN · 0 pts GW 2 1st MCI · 6 pts2nd ARS · 6 pts9th BHA · 3 pts10th MUN · 3 pts GW 3 1st MCI · 9 pts2nd ARS · 9 pts10th BHA · 4 pts11th MUN · 4 pts GW 4 1st ARS · 12 pts2nd MCI · 12 pts5th BHA · 7 pts13th MUN · 4 pts GW 5 1st MCI · 15 pts2nd ARS · 12 pts3rd BHA · 10 pts12th MUN · 5 pts GW 6 1st MCI · 18 pts2nd ARS · 15 pts3rd BHA · 13 pts13th MUN · 6 pts GW 7 1st MCI · 21 pts2nd ARS · 18 pts3rd BHA · 16 pts13th MUN · 7 pts GW 8 · projected 1st MCI · 24 pts2nd ARS · 21 pts3rd BHA · 16 pts8th MUN · 10 pts GW 9 · projected 1st MCI · 27 pts2nd ARS · 24 pts4th BHA · 16 pts7th MUN · 11 pts GW 10 · projected 1st MCI · 30 pts2nd ARS · 27 pts3rd BHA · 19 pts7th MUN · 14 pts GW 11 · projected 1st MCI · 33 pts2nd ARS · 30 pts3rd BHA · 22 pts7th MUN · 15 pts GW 12 · projected 1st MCI · 34 pts2nd ARS · 31 pts3rd BHA · 25 pts6th MUN · 18 pts GW 13 · projected 1st MCI · 37 pts2nd ARS · 34 pts3rd BHA · 26 pts7th MUN · 19 pts GW 14 · projected 1st MCI · 40 pts2nd ARS · 37 pts3rd BHA · 27 pts7th MUN · 22 pts GW 15 · projected 1st MCI · 43 pts2nd ARS · 40 pts3rd BHA · 30 pts7th MUN · 25 pts GW 16 · projected 1st MCI · 46 pts2nd ARS · 43 pts3rd BHA · 33 pts7th MUN · 25 pts GW 17 · projected 1st MCI · 49 pts2nd ARS · 46 pts3rd BHA · 34 pts7th MUN · 28 pts GW 18 · projected 1st MCI · 52 pts2nd ARS · 49 pts3rd BHA · 35 pts5th MUN · 31 pts GW 19 · projected 1st MCI · 55 pts2nd ARS · 52 pts4th BHA · 36 pts6th MUN · 32 pts GW 20 · projected 1st MCI · 58 pts2nd ARS · 55 pts4th BHA · 39 pts5th MUN · 35 pts GW 21 · projected 1st MCI · 61 pts2nd ARS · 58 pts4th BHA · 40 pts6th MUN · 36 pts GW 22 · projected 1st MCI · 64 pts2nd ARS · 61 pts4th BHA · 40 pts5th MUN · 39 pts GW 23 · projected 1st MCI · 67 pts2nd ARS · 61 pts4th MUN · 42 pts6th BHA · 41 pts GW 24 · projected 1st MCI · 70 pts2nd ARS · 64 pts4th MUN · 45 pts5th BHA · 44 pts GW 25 · projected 1st MCI · 73 pts2nd ARS · 67 pts4th MUN · 48 pts5th BHA · 44 pts GW 26 · projected 1st MCI · 76 pts2nd ARS · 70 pts4th MUN · 51 pts5th BHA · 47 pts GW 27 · projected 1st MCI · 79 pts2nd ARS · 71 pts4th MUN · 52 pts5th BHA · 50 pts GW 28 · projected 1st MCI · 82 pts2nd ARS · 74 pts4th MUN · 55 pts5th BHA · 53 pts GW 29 · projected 1st MCI · 85 pts2nd ARS · 77 pts4th MUN · 58 pts5th BHA · 54 pts GW 30 · projected 1st MCI · 88 pts2nd ARS · 80 pts4th MUN · 58 pts5th BHA · 57 pts GW 31 · projected 1st MCI · 91 pts2nd ARS · 83 pts4th MUN · 61 pts5th BHA · 57 pts GW 32 · projected 1st MCI · 94 pts2nd ARS · 86 pts4th MUN · 64 pts5th BHA · 60 pts GW 33 · projected 1st MCI · 97 pts2nd ARS · 89 pts4th MUN · 67 pts5th BHA · 61 pts GW 34 · projected 1st MCI · 100 pts2nd ARS · 92 pts4th MUN · 70 pts5th BHA · 64 pts GW 35 · projected 1st MCI · 103 pts2nd ARS · 95 pts4th MUN · 71 pts5th BHA · 67 pts GW 36 · projected 1st MCI · 106 pts2nd ARS · 98 pts4th MUN · 74 pts5th BHA · 68 pts GW 37 · projected 1st MCI · 109 pts2nd ARS · 101 pts4th MUN · 77 pts5th BHA · 69 pts GW 38 · projected 1st MCI · 112 pts2nd ARS · 104 pts4th MUN · 80 pts6th BHA · 69 pts
Manchester City solid to the last match played, dashed for the forecast. Rivals are dotted throughout, with a dot on their last match played. The white lines are the ones a season is played against – the title, the Champions League places, Europe, and the drop.

C Champions – and into the Champions League CL Champions League EL Europa League CF Conference League R Relegated European places shift with who wins the cups, so the bottom two rows of Europe are the usual arrangement rather than a guarantee. P counts the results already in when the forecast froze; the rest of each row is the calls.

Show another club: ARSAVLBOUBREBHACHECOVCRYEVEFULHULIPSLEELIVMCIMUNNEWNFOSUNTOT

Model history Thu 15 Oct, 18:37 – model updated: 5 of 380 pre-season calls changed. Thu 8 Oct, 12:37 – model updated: 1 of 380 pre-season calls changed. Fri 25 Sept, 16:24 – model updated: 1 of 380 pre-season calls changed. Fri 18 Sept, 16:06 – model updated: 5 of 380 pre-season calls changed. Fri 11 Sept, 15:12 – model updated: 9 of 380 pre-season calls changed. Thu 3 Sept, 20:07 – model updated: 5 of 380 pre-season calls changed. Thu 27 Aug, 09:24 – first recomputation of the pre-season view under this scheme. The pre-season view is remade weekly by the current model; this is the record of when that changed anything. The in-season checkpoints freeze and stay frozen.

Against expectations

Points actually won so far, beside the points our calls would have given them – three where we named them the winner, none where we named the other side. A club above the line is doing better than we said; below it, worse.

ClubPlayedActual ptsOur calls said3 for a win we calledDifference
Manchester City 7 21 21 0
Arsenal 7 18 21 -3
Brighton & Hove Albion 7 16 15 +1
Chelsea 7 13 9 +4
Liverpool 7 12 18 -6
Everton 7 10 15 -5
Brentford 7 10 9 +1
Leeds United 7 10 9 +1
Hull City 7 9 0 +9
Ipswich Town 7 9 0 +9
Newcastle United 7 8 15 -7
Aston Villa 7 8 12 -4
Manchester United 7 7 18 -11
Crystal Palace 7 7 6 +1
Bournemouth 7 6 9 -3
Coventry City 6 6 3 +3
Fulham 7 5 12 -7
Nottingham Forest 7 5 9 -4
Sunderland 7 4 6 -2
Tottenham Hotspur 6 3 0 +3