Newcastle United vs. Liverpool
Sunday 23rd August 2026 (Kick Off: 16:30) · Gameweek 1
Too close to call
Draw 26% · leans LIV by 9 points
More statsLess
The key stat: XI defensive record. This is the widest gap between them. Liverpool come out on top, 1.40 against 1.51. In matches like this, whoever fielded the more solid defence usually wins — about 74% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.
- The callToo close to call — Newcastle United 33%, draw 26%, Liverpool 41%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
- For LiverpoolPossession 53% v 47% (useful); Elo performance 1635 v 1546 (useful); Shots on target 5.1 v 4.4 (slight).
- For Newcastle UnitedHome and away form W-L-L-W-W v L-L-W-L-L (clear); Goal difference at this venue 0.60 v -0.80 (clear); Goal difference 0.20 v -0.20 (slight).
- FormNewcastle United L-W-D-W-L, Liverpool W-L-D-L-D.
NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.
Newcastle United 4-2-3-1
Expected starting XI
Liverpool 4-2-3-1
Expected starting XI
- Pope98%
- Thiaw98%
- Schär98%
- Botman98%
- Burn81%
- L.Miley98%
- J.Murphy73%
- Willock62%
- J.Ramsey62%
- Barnes27%
- Osula93%
- A.Becker98%
- Virgil98%
- Tsimikas94%
- Kerkez43%
- Frimpong42%
- Szoboszlai98%
- Mac Allister98%
- Gakpo98%
- Gravenberch79%
- C.Jones75%
- Isak42%
Likely subs Hall, Woltemade, Elanga, Wissa, Neave, Touré, Steur
Likely subs Mamardashvili, Woodman, Wirtz, Ngumoha, Endo, Elliott, Chiesa
Doubts Joelinton injured, Livramento injured, A.Murphy unavailable
Doubts C.Jones doubtful, Bradley injured, Ekitiké injured, Bajcetic injured, Gomez injured, Danns injured, Jaros injured, Pecsi unavailable
Our call: 33% NEW · 26% draw · 41% LIV · expected goals 1.31–1.50
Last updated 19 Aug at 12:28