Which Team Will Win?

Liverpool

Where we have Liverpool finishing, the matches they have next, and every call we have made about them this season – frozen at kick-off, right or wrong.

Projected league position, week by week

If the season plays out as the model expects, Liverpool finish 3rd on 90 points.

1st 4th 10th 17th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 1st BHA · 3 pts2nd ARS · 3 pts4th EVE · 3 pts6th CHE · 3 pts10th LIV · 1 pts GW 2 2nd ARS · 6 pts4th CHE · 6 pts7th EVE · 4 pts9th BHA · 3 pts13th LIV · 2 pts GW 3 2nd ARS · 9 pts4th CHE · 6 pts6th LIV · 5 pts8th EVE · 5 pts10th BHA · 4 pts GW 4 1st ARS · 12 pts5th BHA · 7 pts6th CHE · 7 pts8th LIV · 6 pts9th EVE · 6 pts GW 5 2nd ARS · 12 pts3rd BHA · 10 pts6th LIV · 9 pts7th EVE · 9 pts10th CHE · 7 pts GW 6 2nd ARS · 15 pts3rd BHA · 13 pts5th EVE · 10 pts6th CHE · 10 pts9th LIV · 9 pts GW 7 2nd ARS · 18 pts3rd BHA · 16 pts4th CHE · 13 pts5th LIV · 12 pts8th EVE · 10 pts GW 8 · projected 2nd ARS · 21 pts3rd BHA · 16 pts4th CHE · 16 pts5th LIV · 15 pts10th EVE · 10 pts GW 9 · projected 2nd ARS · 24 pts3rd CHE · 19 pts4th BHA · 16 pts6th LIV · 15 pts12th EVE · 10 pts GW 10 · projected 2nd ARS · 27 pts3rd CHE · 22 pts4th BHA · 19 pts5th LIV · 18 pts10th EVE · 13 pts GW 11 · projected 2nd ARS · 30 pts3rd CHE · 25 pts4th BHA · 22 pts5th LIV · 21 pts11th EVE · 13 pts GW 12 · projected 2nd ARS · 33 pts3rd CHE · 28 pts4th BHA · 25 pts5th LIV · 24 pts12th EVE · 13 pts GW 13 · projected 2nd ARS · 36 pts3rd CHE · 31 pts4th LIV · 27 pts5th BHA · 25 pts13th EVE · 13 pts GW 14 · projected 2nd ARS · 39 pts3rd CHE · 31 pts4th LIV · 30 pts5th BHA · 28 pts12th EVE · 16 pts GW 15 · projected 2nd ARS · 42 pts3rd LIV · 33 pts4th BHA · 31 pts5th CHE · 31 pts13th EVE · 16 pts GW 16 · projected 2nd ARS · 45 pts3rd LIV · 36 pts4th BHA · 34 pts5th CHE · 34 pts14th EVE · 16 pts GW 17 · projected 2nd ARS · 48 pts3rd LIV · 39 pts4th BHA · 37 pts5th CHE · 37 pts12th EVE · 19 pts GW 18 · projected 2nd ARS · 51 pts3rd LIV · 42 pts4th BHA · 40 pts5th CHE · 40 pts12th EVE · 19 pts GW 19 · projected 2nd ARS · 54 pts3rd LIV · 45 pts4th BHA · 43 pts5th CHE · 43 pts13th EVE · 19 pts GW 20 · projected 2nd ARS · 57 pts3rd LIV · 48 pts4th BHA · 46 pts5th CHE · 46 pts12th EVE · 22 pts GW 21 · projected 2nd ARS · 60 pts3rd LIV · 51 pts4th BHA · 49 pts5th CHE · 49 pts12th EVE · 25 pts GW 22 · projected 2nd ARS · 63 pts3rd CHE · 52 pts4th LIV · 51 pts5th BHA · 49 pts11th EVE · 28 pts GW 23 · projected 2nd ARS · 63 pts3rd CHE · 55 pts4th LIV · 54 pts5th BHA · 52 pts11th EVE · 28 pts GW 24 · projected 2nd ARS · 66 pts3rd BHA · 55 pts4th CHE · 55 pts5th LIV · 54 pts11th EVE · 31 pts GW 25 · projected 2nd ARS · 69 pts3rd LIV · 57 pts4th BHA · 55 pts5th CHE · 55 pts10th EVE · 34 pts GW 26 · projected 2nd ARS · 72 pts3rd LIV · 60 pts4th BHA · 58 pts5th CHE · 58 pts10th EVE · 37 pts GW 27 · projected 2nd ARS · 75 pts3rd LIV · 63 pts4th BHA · 61 pts5th CHE · 58 pts9th EVE · 40 pts GW 28 · projected 2nd ARS · 78 pts3rd LIV · 66 pts4th BHA · 64 pts5th CHE · 61 pts10th EVE · 40 pts GW 29 · projected 2nd ARS · 81 pts3rd LIV · 69 pts4th BHA · 67 pts5th CHE · 61 pts10th EVE · 40 pts GW 30 · projected 2nd ARS · 84 pts3rd LIV · 72 pts4th BHA · 70 pts5th CHE · 64 pts10th EVE · 43 pts GW 31 · projected 2nd ARS · 87 pts3rd LIV · 75 pts4th BHA · 70 pts5th CHE · 67 pts10th EVE · 46 pts GW 32 · projected 2nd ARS · 90 pts3rd LIV · 78 pts4th BHA · 73 pts5th CHE · 67 pts10th EVE · 46 pts GW 33 · projected 2nd ARS · 93 pts3rd LIV · 81 pts4th BHA · 76 pts5th CHE · 67 pts10th EVE · 46 pts GW 34 · projected 2nd ARS · 96 pts3rd LIV · 84 pts4th BHA · 79 pts6th CHE · 67 pts10th EVE · 46 pts GW 35 · projected 2nd ARS · 99 pts3rd LIV · 84 pts4th BHA · 82 pts6th CHE · 70 pts10th EVE · 49 pts GW 36 · projected 2nd ARS · 102 pts3rd LIV · 87 pts4th BHA · 85 pts6th CHE · 73 pts10th EVE · 49 pts GW 37 · projected 2nd ARS · 105 pts3rd BHA · 88 pts4th LIV · 87 pts7th CHE · 73 pts11th EVE · 49 pts GW 38 · projected 2nd ARS · 108 pts3rd LIV · 90 pts4th BHA · 88 pts7th CHE · 76 pts11th EVE · 52 pts
Liverpool Chelsea Champions LeagueBrighton & Hove Albion Champions LeagueArsenal Champions LeagueEverton derby
Liverpool solid to the last match played, dashed for the forecast. Rivals are dotted throughout, with a dot on their last match played. The white lines are the ones a season is played against – the title, the Champions League places, Europe, and the drop.

Real results so far plus a called outcome for every match still to play, recalculated as results come in. Drawn beside them are the clubs they are actually racing: their usual rivals, and whoever this season has put them in the same fight with. Point at any gameweek for every club's position and points.

Against pre-season expectations

They are 1 place behind our projection.

1st 10th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 · 1 place behind Projected 9thActual 10th GW 2 · 9 places behind Projected 4thActual 13th GW 3 · 2 places behind Projected 4thActual 6th GW 4 · 5 places behind Projected 3rdActual 8th GW 5 · 3 places behind Projected 3rdActual 6th GW 6 · 5 places behind Projected 4thActual 9th GW 7 · 1 place behind Projected 4thActual 5th GW 8 Projected 4th GW 9 Projected 4th GW 10 Projected 4th GW 11 Projected 4th GW 12 Projected 5th GW 13 Projected 4th GW 14 Projected 5th GW 15 Projected 5th GW 16 Projected 3rd GW 17 Projected 3rd GW 18 Projected 4th GW 19 Projected 3rd GW 20 Projected 3rd GW 21 Projected 3rd GW 22 Projected 3rd GW 23 Projected 3rd GW 24 Projected 4th GW 25 Projected 4th GW 26 Projected 3rd GW 27 Projected 3rd GW 28 Projected 3rd GW 29 Projected 3rd GW 30 Projected 3rd GW 31 Projected 3rd GW 32 Projected 3rd GW 33 Projected 3rd GW 34 Projected 3rd GW 35 Projected 3rd GW 36 Projected 3rd GW 37 Projected 4th GW 38 Projected 4th

Where Liverpool actually are, week by week, against where the pre-season projection had them – shaded green while they run ahead of it, red while they run behind. Point at any gameweek for both figures.

Next up

Brentford 1–2 Liverpool

Saturday 17th October 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

whichteamwillwin.com
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Liverpool win

1–2Full time

Brentford crest
◀ Brentford win Liverpool win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Liverpool crest

Knife-edge – Liverpool shade it

BRE LIV D-D-D-W-D D-W-D-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.60 0.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-W-D-W L-L-D-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.80 0.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 45% 55% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.31 1.46 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Strong 1569 Very strong 1631 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.71 1.47 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.53 1.26 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 76% 68% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.0 5.1 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.54 1.25 Defence Conceded per game BRE LIV D-D-D-W-D D-W-D-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.60 0.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-W-D-W L-L-D-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.80 0.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 45% 55% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.31 1.46 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Strong 1569 Very strong 1631 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.71 1.47 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.53 1.26 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 76% 68% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.0 5.1 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.54 1.25 Defence Conceded per game

The key stat: Elo performance. This is the widest gap between them. Liverpool come out on top, Very strong against Strong. In matches like this, the side carrying the stronger record usually wins – about 72% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callKnife-edge – Brentford 34%, draw 26%, Liverpool 40%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Liverpool comes from the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and the defence in front of them.
  • For LiverpoolPossession 55% v 45% (clear); XI defensive record 1.26 v 1.53 (useful); Shots on target 5.1 v 4.0 (useful).
  • For BrentfordGK save rate 76% v 68% (clear); Goal difference at this venue 1.80 v 0.00 (clear); Home and away form W-D-W-D-W v L-L-D-W-W (useful).
  • FormBrentford D-D-D-W-D, Liverpool D-W-D-W-L.
Brentford 4-2-3-1 confirmedLiverpool 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Brentford 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Liverpool 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 C. Kelleher 23 Lewis-Potter 4 van den Berg 20 K. Ajer 33 M. Kayode 27 V. Janelt 6 Y. Yarmoliuk 19 J. Anthony 8 M. Jensen 11 D. Ouattara 9 Igor Thiago
1 Alisson Becker 6 M. Kerkez 4 V. van Dijk 5 J. Jacquet 33 R. Araujo 10 A. Mac Allister 8 D. Szoboszlai 29 B. Barcola 7 F. Wirtz 23 Víctor Muñoz 9 A. Isak
  1. C. Kelleher
  2. K. Lewis-Potter
  3. S. van den Berg
  4. K. Ajer
  5. M. Kayode
  6. V. Janelt
  7. Y. Yarmoliuk
  8. J. Anthony
  9. M. Jensen
  10. D. Ouattara
  11. Igor Thiago
  1. Alisson Becker
  2. M. Kerkez
  3. V. van Dijk
  4. J. Jacquet
  5. R. Araujo
  6. A. Mac Allister
  7. D. Szoboszlai
  8. B. Barcola
  9. F. Wirtz
  10. Víctor Muñoz
  11. A. Isak

Substitutes N. Collins, E. Diouf, Fábio Carvalho, A. Hickey, M. Damsgaard, M. Sangaré, K. Schade, H. Valdimarsson, C. Wilson

Substitutes W. Endo, J. Frimpong, C. Gakpo, J. Gomez, L. Koumas, G. Mamardashvili, R. Ngumoha, T. Nyoni, K. Tsimikas

Our call: 34% BRE · 26% draw · 40% LIV  ·  bookmakers: 40% / 26% / 34%  ·  expected goals 1.31–1.46

Last updated 17 Oct at 14:09

Liverpool vs. Brighton & Hove Albion

Sunday 25th October 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 8

whichteamwillwin.com

Liverpool win

Liverpool crest
◀ Liverpool win Brighton win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers
Brighton & Hove Albion crest

Confidence: Fair

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LIV BHA W-D-W-L-W D-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 3.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-D-D-L L-L-L-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 46% 54% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.69 1.09 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.60 2.48 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 68% 71% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 5.1 5.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.22 1.34 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Very strong 1641 Strong 1596 Elo performance 1500 is average LIV BHA W-D-W-L-W D-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 3.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-D-D-L L-L-L-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 46% 54% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.69 1.09 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.60 2.48 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 68% 71% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 5.1 5.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.22 1.34 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Very strong 1641 Strong 1596 Elo performance 1500 is average

The key stat: Attack. This is the widest gap between them. Brighton & Hove Albion lead it, 2.48 to 1.60. In matches like this, the side scoring more freely usually wins – about 71% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

Against the call – Brighton & Hove Albion come out ahead on it, and Liverpool are favoured anyway – on the strength of home advantage, the long-run strength gap and a cup tie in the other side's legs.

  • The callLiverpool to win: 51% against 24%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and a cup tie in the other side's legs – the strongest pull the other way is recent shots on target.
  • For LiverpoolGoals 1.69 v 1.09 (useful); XI defensive record 1.22 v 1.34 (slight); Elo performance 1641 v 1596 (slight).
  • For Brighton & Hove AlbionGoal difference 3.00 v 0.20 (decisive); Attack 2.48 v 1.60 (decisive); Goal difference at this venue 0.60 v -0.60 (useful).
  • FormLiverpool W-D-W-L-W, Brighton & Hove Albion D-W-W-W-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Liverpool 4-2-3-1 expected · 11 unavailableBrighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1 expected · 12 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Liverpool 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 A.Becker 4 Virgil 5 J. Jacquet 33 R. Araujo 6 M. Kerkez 7 F. Wirtz 10 A. Mac Allister 29 B. Barcola 23 V. Munoz 18 C. Gakpo 9 A. Isak
1 B. Verbruggen 44 Vuskovic 24 F.Kadıoğlu 29 M. De Cuyper 21 O. Boscagli 5 L. Dunk 13 P. Groß 26 Y. Ayari 25 Gomez 14 Andrés 19 C. Kostoulas
  1. A.Becker98%
  2. Virgil98%
  3. J. Jacquet98%
  4. R. Araujo93%
  5. M. Kerkez84%
  6. F. Wirtz96%
  7. A. Mac Allister82%
  8. B. Barcola79%
  9. V. Munoz75%
  10. C. Gakpo43%
  11. A. Isak76%
  1. B. Verbruggen98%
  2. Vuskovic98%
  3. F.Kadıoğlu98%
  4. M. De Cuyper97%
  5. O. Boscagli96%
  6. L. Dunk63%
  7. P. Groß98%
  8. Y. Ayari98%
  9. Gomez98%
  10. Andrés62%
  11. C. Kostoulas94%

Likely subs R. Gravenberch, R. Ngumoha, L. Koumas, J. Gomez, K. Tsimikas, Endo, G. Mamardashvili

Likely subs M. Yalcouyé, P. Struijk, J. Hinshelwood, M. O'Riley, Georginio, M. Svoboda, I. Osman

Doubts D. Szoboszlai injured, A. Pecsi unavailable, J. Frimpong injured, V. Jaros injured, G. Leoni injured, C. Ramsay unavailable, H. Ekitiké injured, C.Jones unavailable

Doubts F. Azeez injured, P. Struijk doubtful, A. Cozier-Duberry unavailable, Z. Yohanna injured, Mitoma injured, Y. Minteh injured, S. Tzimas injured, F. Buonanotte unavailable

Our call: 51% LIV · 25% draw · 24% BHA  ·  bookmakers: 46% / 25% / 29%  ·  expected goals 1.69–1.09

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Liverpool vs. Arsenal

Sunday 1st November 2026 (Kick Off: 16:30) · Gameweek 9

whichteamwillwin.com

Arsenal win

Liverpool crest
◀ Liverpool win Arsenal win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Arsenal crest

Confidence: Slight

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LIV ARS W-D-W-L-W W-W-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-D-D-L W-W-W-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.18 1.55 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.45 2.81 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 68% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.16 0.71 Defence Conceded per game 1.22 0.95 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.60 1.68 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Very strong 1641 Exceptional 1757 Elo performance 1500 is average LIV ARS W-D-W-L-W W-W-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-D-D-L W-W-W-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.18 1.55 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.45 2.81 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 68% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.16 0.71 Defence Conceded per game 1.22 0.95 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.60 1.68 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Very strong 1641 Exceptional 1757 Elo performance 1500 is average

The key stat: XI attacking output. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. Arsenal lead it, 2.81 to 2.45. Historically, the side naming the more potent eleven takes these roughly 70% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callArsenal to win: 46% against 29%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, a cup tie in the other side's legs and the defence in front of them – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For ArsenalHome and away form W-W-W-L-W v D-D-D-D-L (decisive); GK save rate 75% v 68% (clear); XI defensive record 0.95 v 1.22 (useful).
  • For LiverpoolNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormLiverpool W-D-W-L-W, Arsenal W-W-L-W-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Liverpool 4-2-3-1 expected · 11 unavailableArsenal 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Liverpool 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Arsenal 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 A.Becker 4 Virgil 5 J. Jacquet 33 R. Araujo 6 M. Kerkez 7 F. Wirtz 10 A. Mac Allister 29 B. Barcola 23 V. Munoz 18 C. Gakpo 9 A. Isak
1 Raya 6 Gabriel 15 Konsa 33 R. Calafiori 4 B. White 7 B. Saka 41 D. Rice 8 M. Ødegaard 49 Lewis-Skelly 39 Bruno G. 29 K. Havertz
  1. A.Becker98%
  2. Virgil98%
  3. J. Jacquet98%
  4. R. Araujo93%
  5. M. Kerkez84%
  6. F. Wirtz96%
  7. A. Mac Allister82%
  8. B. Barcola79%
  9. V. Munoz75%
  10. C. Gakpo43%
  11. A. Isak76%
  1. Raya98%
  2. Gabriel98%
  3. Konsa98%
  4. R. Calafiori97%
  5. B. White71%
  6. B. Saka98%
  7. D. Rice98%
  8. M. Ødegaard97%
  9. M. Lewis-Skelly51%
  10. Bruno G.41%
  11. K. Havertz94%

Likely subs R. Gravenberch, R. Ngumoha, L. Koumas, J. Gomez, K. Tsimikas, Endo, G. Mamardashvili

Likely subs J.Timber, V. Gyökeres, N. Madueke, Merino, M. Dowman, C. Mosquera, Zubimendi

Doubts D. Szoboszlai injured, A. Pecsi unavailable, J. Frimpong injured, V. Jaros injured, G. Leoni injured, C. Ramsay unavailable, H. Ekitiké injured, C.Jones unavailable

Doubts C. Tzolis injured, Hincapie injured, Martinelli unavailable, W. Saliba injured, G.Jesus unavailable, Fábio Vieira unavailable, R. Nelson unavailable, E. Nwaneri unavailable

Our call: 29% LIV · 26% draw · 46% ARS  ·  bookmakers: 29% / 26% / 44%  ·  expected goals 1.18–1.55

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Crystal Palace vs. Liverpool

Sunday 8th November 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 10

whichteamwillwin.com

Liverpool win

Crystal Palace crest
◀ Crystal Palace win Liverpool win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Liverpool crest

Confidence: Fair

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CRY LIV W-L-D-W-L W-D-W-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-L-L-L-W L-D-W-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 40% 60% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.09 1.71 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.68 1.16 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 3.9 5.1 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.84 1.22 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Average 1505 Very strong 1641 Elo performance 1500 is average 67% 68% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved CRY LIV W-L-D-W-L W-D-W-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-L-L-L-W L-D-W-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 40% 60% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.09 1.71 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.68 1.16 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 3.9 5.1 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.84 1.22 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Average 1505 Very strong 1641 Elo performance 1500 is average 67% 68% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved

The key stat: Defence. This is the widest gap between them. Liverpool come out on top, 1.16 against 2.68. In matches like this, the side with the tighter defence usually wins – about 69% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callLiverpool to win: 51% against 24%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, the defence in front of them and recent shots on target – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For LiverpoolPossession 60% v 40% (decisive); Defence 1.16 v 2.68 (decisive); XI defensive record 1.22 v 1.84 (decisive).
  • For Crystal PalaceNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormCrystal Palace W-L-D-W-L, Liverpool W-D-W-L-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1 expected · 10 unavailable · 1 doubtfulLiverpool 4-2-3-1 expected · 11 unavailable Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

Liverpool 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

44 Benitez 25 A. Khalaili 26 C. Richards 3 T. Mitchell 6 J. Canvot 21 H. Ahanor 20 A. Wharton 18 D. Kamada 23 Q. Timber 10 Yeremy 22 J. Strand Larsen
1 A.Becker 4 Virgil 5 J. Jacquet 33 R. Araujo 6 M. Kerkez 7 F. Wirtz 10 A. Mac Allister 29 B. Barcola 23 V. Munoz 18 C. Gakpo 9 A. Isak
  1. Benitez80%
  2. A. Khalaili98%
  3. C. Richards98%
  4. T. Mitchell97%
  5. J. Canvot80%
  6. H. Ahanor38%
  7. A. Wharton98%
  8. D. Kamada98%
  9. Q. Timber94%
  10. Yeremy91%
  11. J. Strand Larsen79%
  1. A.Becker98%
  2. Virgil98%
  3. J. Jacquet98%
  4. R. Araujo93%
  5. M. Kerkez84%
  6. F. Wirtz96%
  7. A. Mac Allister82%
  8. B. Barcola79%
  9. V. Munoz75%
  10. C. Gakpo43%
  11. A. Isak76%

Likely subs A. Disasi, D. Osorio, Lerma, J. Mateta, I. Sarr, E. Nketiah, D. McNeil

Likely subs R. Gravenberch, R. Ngumoha, L. Koumas, J. Gomez, K. Tsimikas, Endo, G. Mamardashvili

Doubts R. Cardines unavailable, T. Tomiyasu injured, D. Henderson doubtful, B. Chilwell injured, J. Devenny unavailable, R. Esse unavailable, C. Uche unavailable, M.França unavailable

Doubts D. Szoboszlai injured, A. Pecsi unavailable, J. Frimpong injured, V. Jaros injured, G. Leoni injured, C. Ramsay unavailable, H. Ekitiké injured, C.Jones unavailable

Our call: 24% CRY · 25% draw · 51% LIV  ·  expected goals 1.09–1.71

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Liverpool vs. Manchester United

Sunday 22nd November 2026 (Kick Off: 16:30) · Gameweek 11

whichteamwillwin.com

Liverpool win

Liverpool crest
◀ Liverpool win Man United win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Manchester United crest

Confidence: Slight

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LIV MUN W-D-W-L-W D-L-D-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-D-D-L W-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 53% 47% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.69 1.21 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 2.45 2.82 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 68% 70% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.22 1.35 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Very strong 1641 Strong 1600 Elo performance 1500 is average 5.1 5.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game LIV MUN W-D-W-L-W D-L-D-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-D-D-L W-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 53% 47% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.69 1.21 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 2.45 2.82 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 68% 70% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.22 1.35 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Very strong 1641 Strong 1600 Elo performance 1500 is average 5.1 5.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: XI attacking output. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. Manchester United come out on top, 2.82 against 2.45. Historically, the side naming the more potent eleven takes these roughly 70% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

Against the call – it favours Manchester United; Liverpool are tipped because they lead on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and changes in the other camp.

  • The callLiverpool to win: 48% against 27%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and changes in the other camp – the strongest pull the other way is what this eleven creates.
  • For LiverpoolPossession 53% v 47% (useful); Goals 1.69 v 1.21 (useful); XI defensive record 1.22 v 1.35 (slight).
  • For Manchester UnitedGoal difference at this venue 0.20 v -0.60 (useful); XI attacking output 2.82 v 2.45 (slight); GK save rate 70% v 68% (slight).
  • FormLiverpool W-D-W-L-W, Manchester United D-L-D-D-D.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Liverpool 4-2-3-1 expected · 11 unavailableManchester United 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable · 3 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Liverpool 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Manchester United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 A.Becker 4 Virgil 5 J. Jacquet 33 R. Araujo 6 M. Kerkez 7 F. Wirtz 10 A. Mac Allister 29 B. Barcola 23 V. Munoz 18 C. Gakpo 9 A. Isak
1 S. Lammens 5 H. Maguire 2 Dalot 6 Martinez 23 L. Shaw 8 B.Fernandes 19 B. Mbeumo 18 Y. Tielemans 10 M. Cunha 37 K. Mainoo 9 M. Rashford
  1. A.Becker98%
  2. Virgil98%
  3. J. Jacquet98%
  4. R. Araujo93%
  5. M. Kerkez84%
  6. F. Wirtz96%
  7. A. Mac Allister82%
  8. B. Barcola79%
  9. V. Munoz75%
  10. C. Gakpo43%
  11. A. Isak76%
  1. S. Lammens98%
  2. H. Maguire98%
  3. Dalot82%
  4. Martinez72%
  5. L. Shaw45%
  6. B.Fernandes98%
  7. B. Mbeumo98%
  8. Y. Tielemans94%
  9. M. Cunha79%
  10. K. Mainoo59%
  11. M. Rashford56%

Likely subs R. Gravenberch, R. Ngumoha, L. Koumas, J. Gomez, K. Tsimikas, Endo, G. Mamardashvili

Likely subs K. Darlow, L. Yoro, Amad, M. Mount, J. Zirkzee, M. De Ligt, S. Lacey

Doubts D. Szoboszlai injured, A. Pecsi unavailable, J. Frimpong injured, V. Jaros injured, G. Leoni injured, C. Ramsay unavailable, H. Ekitiké injured, C.Jones unavailable

Doubts Martinez doubtful, K. Mainoo doubtful, L. Shaw doubtful, P. Dorgu injured, T. Heaton injured, Šeško injured, Ugarte injured, T. Collyer unavailable

Our call: 48% LIV · 25% draw · 27% MUN  ·  expected goals 1.69–1.21

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

The whole season

All 38 of Liverpool's league matches, what we said would happen, and – where it has been played – what actually did. We have called 4 of 4 of their decided matches so far; 3 were draws, which nobody scores. Rows marked projected are today's model looking ahead: they move every time the season is re-projected, so they are not frozen and are never graded. Everything else is the call we published before kick-off.

GWKick-offOpponentWinDrawLoseOur callResultCalled it?
1 Sun 23 Aug, 16:30 Newcastle United (A) 42% 25% 34% WinConfidence: Knife-edge 2–2
2 Sat 29 Aug, 12:30 Nottingham Forest (H) 62% 21% 16% WinConfidence: Strong 2–2
3 Fri 4 Sept, 20:00 Ipswich Town (A) 62% 21% 17% WinConfidence: Strong 2–0
4 Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 Fulham (H) 62% 21% 17% WinConfidence: Strong 0–0
5 Sun 20 Sept, 14:00 Bournemouth (A) 38% 26% 37% WinConfidence: Knife-edge 1–0
6 Sun 11 Oct, 16:30 Manchester City (H) 30% 26% 44% LoseConfidence: Slight 0–3
7 Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Brentford (A) 40% 26% 34% WinConfidence: Knife-edge 2–1
8 Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 Brighton & Hove Albion (H) 51% 25% 24% WinConfidence: Fair –
9 Sun 1 Nov, 16:30 Arsenal (H) 29% 26% 46% LoseConfidence: Slight –
10 Sun 8 Nov, 14:00 Crystal Palace (A) 51% 25% 24% WinConfidence: Fair –
11 Sun 22 Nov, 16:30 Manchester United (H) 48% 25% 27% WinConfidence: Slight –
12 Sun 29 Nov, 12:00 Everton (A) 43% 26% 31% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
13 Wed 2 Dec, 20:00 Sunderland (H) 65% 20% 15% WinProjected: Strong –
14 Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 Chelsea (A) 39% 27% 35% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
15 Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 Leeds United (H) 60% 23% 17% WinProjected: Strong –
16 Sat 19 Dec, 15:00 Tottenham Hotspur (H) 66% 20% 14% WinProjected: Strong –
17 Sat 26 Dec, 17:30 Hull City (A) 58% 23% 19% WinProjected: Strong –
18 Wed 30 Dec, 20:15 Aston Villa (A) 37% 27% 36% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
19 Sat 2 Jan, 15:00 Coventry City (H) 69% 19% 12% WinProjected: Very strong –
20 Tue 5 Jan, 20:15 Sunderland (A) 51% 25% 25% WinProjected: Fair –
21 Sat 16 Jan, 15:00 Crystal Palace (H) 65% 20% 14% WinProjected: Strong –
22 Sat 23 Jan, 15:00 Manchester United (A) 35% 26% 39% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
23 Sat 30 Jan, 15:00 Everton (H) 57% 23% 20% WinProjected: Strong –
24 Sat 6 Feb, 15:00 Arsenal (A) 20% 24% 56% LoseProjected: Fair –
25 Wed 10 Feb, 20:00 Coventry City (A) 55% 24% 21% WinProjected: Fair –
26 Sat 20 Feb, 15:00 Hull City (H) 71% 18% 11% WinProjected: Very strong –
27 Sat 27 Feb, 15:00 Tottenham Hotspur (A) 53% 25% 23% WinProjected: Fair –
28 Wed 3 Mar, 20:00 Aston Villa (H) 50% 25% 24% WinProjected: Fair –
29 Sat 13 Mar, 15:00 Ipswich Town (H) 73% 17% 10% WinProjected: Very strong –
30 Sat 20 Mar, 15:00 Fulham (A) 45% 26% 29% WinProjected: Slight –
31 Sat 10 Apr, 15:00 Newcastle United (H) 57% 23% 20% WinProjected: Strong –
32 Sat 17 Apr, 15:00 Nottingham Forest (A) 46% 26% 28% WinProjected: Slight –
33 Sat 24 Apr, 15:00 Leeds United (A) 47% 26% 26% WinProjected: Slight –
34 Sat 1 May, 15:00 Chelsea (H) 52% 24% 23% WinProjected: Fair –
35 Sat 8 May, 15:00 Manchester City (A) 23% 24% 53% LoseProjected: Fair –
36 Sat 15 May, 15:00 Brentford (H) 57% 23% 20% WinProjected: Strong –
37 Sun 23 May, 15:00 Brighton & Hove Albion (A) 36% 27% 38% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
38 Sun 30 May, 16:00 Bournemouth (H) 50% 25% 25% WinProjected: Fair –

Called the winner Called it wrong Drawn – no winner to call