Which Team Will Win?

Brentford 1–2 Liverpool

Saturday 17th October 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

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Liverpool win

1–2Full time

Brentford crest
◀ Brentford win Liverpool win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Liverpool crest

Knife-edge – Liverpool shade it

BRE LIV D-D-D-W-D D-W-D-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.60 0.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-W-D-W L-L-D-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.80 0.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 45% 55% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.31 1.46 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Strong 1569 Very strong 1631 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.71 1.47 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.53 1.26 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 76% 68% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.0 5.1 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.54 1.25 Defence Conceded per game BRE LIV D-D-D-W-D D-W-D-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.60 0.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-W-D-W L-L-D-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.80 0.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 45% 55% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.31 1.46 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Strong 1569 Very strong 1631 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.71 1.47 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.53 1.26 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 76% 68% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.0 5.1 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.54 1.25 Defence Conceded per game

The key stat: Elo performance. This is the widest gap between them. Liverpool come out on top, Very strong against Strong. In matches like this, the side carrying the stronger record usually wins – about 72% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callKnife-edge – Brentford 34%, draw 26%, Liverpool 40%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Liverpool comes from the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and the defence in front of them.
  • For LiverpoolPossession 55% v 45% (clear); XI defensive record 1.26 v 1.53 (useful); Shots on target 5.1 v 4.0 (useful).
  • For BrentfordGK save rate 76% v 68% (clear); Goal difference at this venue 1.80 v 0.00 (clear); Home and away form W-D-W-D-W v L-L-D-W-W (useful).
  • FormBrentford D-D-D-W-D, Liverpool D-W-D-W-L.
Brentford 4-2-3-1 confirmedLiverpool 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Brentford 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Liverpool 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 C. Kelleher 23 Lewis-Potter 4 van den Berg 20 K. Ajer 33 M. Kayode 27 V. Janelt 6 Y. Yarmoliuk 19 J. Anthony 8 M. Jensen 11 D. Ouattara 9 Igor Thiago
1 Alisson Becker 6 M. Kerkez 4 V. van Dijk 5 J. Jacquet 33 R. Araujo 10 A. Mac Allister 8 D. Szoboszlai 29 B. Barcola 7 F. Wirtz 23 Víctor Muñoz 9 A. Isak
  1. C. Kelleher
  2. K. Lewis-Potter
  3. S. van den Berg
  4. K. Ajer
  5. M. Kayode
  6. V. Janelt
  7. Y. Yarmoliuk
  8. J. Anthony
  9. M. Jensen
  10. D. Ouattara
  11. Igor Thiago
  1. Alisson Becker
  2. M. Kerkez
  3. V. van Dijk
  4. J. Jacquet
  5. R. Araujo
  6. A. Mac Allister
  7. D. Szoboszlai
  8. B. Barcola
  9. F. Wirtz
  10. Víctor Muñoz
  11. A. Isak

Substitutes N. Collins, E. Diouf, Fábio Carvalho, A. Hickey, M. Damsgaard, M. Sangaré, K. Schade, H. Valdimarsson, C. Wilson

Substitutes W. Endo, J. Frimpong, C. Gakpo, J. Gomez, L. Koumas, G. Mamardashvili, R. Ngumoha, T. Nyoni, K. Tsimikas

Our call: 34% BRE · 26% draw · 40% LIV  ·  bookmakers: 40% / 26% / 34%  ·  expected goals 1.31–1.46

Last updated 17 Oct at 14:09

What separates them

Reason◂ BrentfordLiverpool ▸Goals
Home advantage 0.28
Long-run strength 0.26
Cup match in the week 0.18
Shots on target 0.12
Defence 0.03
XI attacking output 0.03
Everything else 0.21
Liverpool ahead by 0.15

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Liverpool come out 0.15 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Liverpool goals Brentford goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Brentford 0–0 Liverpool: 7% Brentford 0–1 Liverpool: 9% Brentford 0–2 Liverpool: 7% Brentford 0–3 Liverpool: 3% Brentford 0–4 Liverpool: 1% Brentford 0–5 Liverpool: <1% Brentford 0–6 Liverpool: <1% Brentford 1–0 Liverpool: 8% Brentford 1–1 Liverpool: 12% Brentford 1–2 Liverpool: 9% Brentford 1–3 Liverpool: 4% Brentford 1–4 Liverpool: 2% Brentford 1–5 Liverpool: <1% Brentford 1–6 Liverpool: <1% Brentford 2–0 Liverpool: 5% Brentford 2–1 Liverpool: 8% Brentford 2–2 Liverpool: 6% Brentford 2–3 Liverpool: 3% Brentford 2–4 Liverpool: 1% Brentford 2–5 Liverpool: <1% Brentford 2–6 Liverpool: <1% Brentford 3–0 Liverpool: 2% Brentford 3–1 Liverpool: 3% Brentford 3–2 Liverpool: 3% Brentford 3–3 Liverpool: 1% Brentford 3–4 Liverpool: <1% Brentford 3–5 Liverpool: <1% Brentford 4–0 Liverpool: <1% Brentford 4–1 Liverpool: 1% Brentford 4–2 Liverpool: <1% Brentford 4–3 Liverpool: <1% Brentford 4–4 Liverpool: <1% Brentford 5–0 Liverpool: <1% Brentford 5–1 Liverpool: <1% Brentford 5–2 Liverpool: <1% Brentford 5–3 Liverpool: <1% Brentford 6–1 Liverpool: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Brentford win, above it Liverpool do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →