Which Team Will Win?

Bournemouth

Where we have Bournemouth finishing, the matches they have next, and every call we have made about them this season – frozen at kick-off, right or wrong.

Projected league position, week by week

If the season plays out as the model expects, Bournemouth finish 5th on 78 points.

1st 4th 10th 17th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 5th HUL · 3 pts7th IPS · 3 pts13th BOU · 0 pts17th MUN · 0 pts20th AVL · 0 pts GW 2 3rd HUL · 6 pts10th MUN · 3 pts12th IPS · 3 pts14th BOU · 1 pts19th AVL · 0 pts GW 3 3rd HUL · 7 pts11th MUN · 4 pts14th IPS · 3 pts15th BOU · 2 pts17th AVL · 1 pts GW 4 4th HUL · 8 pts10th IPS · 6 pts13th MUN · 4 pts15th BOU · 3 pts19th AVL · 1 pts GW 5 8th HUL · 8 pts11th IPS · 6 pts12th MUN · 5 pts16th AVL · 4 pts17th BOU · 3 pts GW 6 8th HUL · 9 pts10th IPS · 9 pts13th MUN · 6 pts16th AVL · 5 pts18th BOU · 3 pts GW 7 9th HUL · 9 pts10th IPS · 9 pts12th AVL · 8 pts13th MUN · 7 pts15th BOU · 6 pts GW 8 · projected 9th MUN · 10 pts11th HUL · 9 pts12th IPS · 9 pts15th AVL · 8 pts18th BOU · 6 pts GW 9 · projected 8th HUL · 12 pts9th AVL · 11 pts11th MUN · 10 pts14th BOU · 9 pts15th IPS · 9 pts GW 10 · projected 9th MUN · 13 pts11th HUL · 12 pts12th BOU · 12 pts14th AVL · 11 pts16th IPS · 9 pts GW 11 · projected 7th BOU · 15 pts8th AVL · 14 pts12th MUN · 13 pts13th HUL · 12 pts17th IPS · 9 pts GW 12 · projected 7th BOU · 18 pts8th AVL · 17 pts10th MUN · 16 pts14th HUL · 12 pts18th IPS · 9 pts GW 13 · projected 6th BOU · 21 pts7th AVL · 20 pts9th MUN · 19 pts15th HUL · 12 pts20th IPS · 9 pts GW 14 · projected 6th BOU · 24 pts7th AVL · 23 pts8th MUN · 22 pts15th HUL · 12 pts20th IPS · 9 pts GW 15 · projected 6th AVL · 26 pts7th MUN · 25 pts8th BOU · 24 pts15th HUL · 15 pts20th IPS · 9 pts GW 16 · projected 6th BOU · 27 pts7th AVL · 26 pts8th MUN · 25 pts15th HUL · 15 pts20th IPS · 9 pts GW 17 · projected 6th BOU · 30 pts7th AVL · 29 pts8th MUN · 28 pts15th HUL · 15 pts20th IPS · 9 pts GW 18 · projected 6th BOU · 33 pts7th MUN · 31 pts8th AVL · 29 pts15th HUL · 15 pts20th IPS · 9 pts GW 19 · projected 6th BOU · 36 pts8th MUN · 31 pts9th AVL · 29 pts16th HUL · 15 pts20th IPS · 9 pts GW 20 · projected 6th BOU · 36 pts7th MUN · 34 pts9th AVL · 29 pts16th HUL · 15 pts19th IPS · 12 pts GW 21 · projected 6th BOU · 39 pts7th MUN · 34 pts8th AVL · 32 pts16th HUL · 15 pts19th IPS · 12 pts GW 22 · projected 6th BOU · 42 pts7th MUN · 37 pts8th AVL · 35 pts16th HUL · 15 pts18th IPS · 15 pts GW 23 · projected 6th BOU · 45 pts7th MUN · 40 pts8th AVL · 38 pts18th HUL · 15 pts19th IPS · 15 pts GW 24 · projected 6th BOU · 48 pts7th MUN · 43 pts8th AVL · 41 pts18th HUL · 15 pts19th IPS · 15 pts GW 25 · projected 6th BOU · 48 pts7th MUN · 46 pts8th AVL · 44 pts18th HUL · 15 pts19th IPS · 15 pts GW 26 · projected 6th BOU · 51 pts7th MUN · 49 pts8th AVL · 47 pts18th HUL · 15 pts19th IPS · 15 pts GW 27 · projected 6th BOU · 54 pts7th AVL · 50 pts8th MUN · 49 pts18th HUL · 15 pts19th IPS · 15 pts GW 28 · projected 6th BOU · 57 pts7th MUN · 52 pts8th AVL · 50 pts18th HUL · 15 pts19th IPS · 15 pts GW 29 · projected 6th BOU · 60 pts7th MUN · 55 pts8th AVL · 53 pts18th HUL · 15 pts19th IPS · 15 pts GW 30 · projected 6th BOU · 63 pts7th AVL · 56 pts8th MUN · 55 pts18th HUL · 15 pts19th IPS · 15 pts GW 31 · projected 6th BOU · 63 pts7th AVL · 59 pts8th MUN · 58 pts18th HUL · 15 pts19th IPS · 15 pts GW 32 · projected 6th BOU · 66 pts7th MUN · 61 pts8th AVL · 59 pts18th HUL · 18 pts19th IPS · 15 pts GW 33 · projected 6th BOU · 66 pts7th MUN · 64 pts8th AVL · 62 pts18th HUL · 18 pts19th IPS · 15 pts GW 34 · projected 5th BOU · 69 pts7th MUN · 67 pts8th AVL · 65 pts18th HUL · 18 pts19th IPS · 15 pts GW 35 · projected 5th BOU · 72 pts7th MUN · 67 pts8th AVL · 65 pts18th HUL · 18 pts19th IPS · 15 pts GW 36 · projected 5th BOU · 75 pts7th MUN · 70 pts8th AVL · 68 pts18th HUL · 18 pts20th IPS · 15 pts GW 37 · projected 5th BOU · 78 pts6th MUN · 73 pts8th AVL · 68 pts18th HUL · 18 pts20th IPS · 15 pts GW 38 · projected 5th BOU · 78 pts6th MUN · 76 pts8th AVL · 71 pts18th HUL · 18 pts20th IPS · 15 pts
Bournemouth Hull City mid-tableIpswich Town mid-tableManchester United mid-tableAston Villa mid-table
Bournemouth solid to the last match played, dashed for the forecast. Rivals are dotted throughout, with a dot on their last match played. The white lines are the ones a season is played against – the title, the Champions League places, Europe, and the drop.

Real results so far plus a called outcome for every match still to play, recalculated as results come in. Drawn beside them are the clubs they are actually racing: their usual rivals, and whoever this season has put them in the same fight with. Point at any gameweek for every club's position and points.

Against pre-season expectations

They are 4 places behind our projection.

1st 10th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 · 5 places ahead Actual 13thProjected 18th GW 2 · 3 places ahead Actual 14thProjected 17th GW 3 · 1 place ahead Actual 15thProjected 16th GW 4 · 3 places behind Projected 12thActual 15th GW 5 · 3 places behind Projected 14thActual 17th GW 6 · 5 places behind Projected 13thActual 18th GW 7 · 4 places behind Projected 11thActual 15th GW 8 Projected 12th GW 9 Projected 12th GW 10 Projected 10th GW 11 Projected 8th GW 12 Projected 8th GW 13 Projected 9th GW 14 Projected 7th GW 15 Projected 7th GW 16 Projected 7th GW 17 Projected 7th GW 18 Projected 7th GW 19 Projected 7th GW 20 Projected 7th GW 21 Projected 7th GW 22 Projected 7th GW 23 Projected 7th GW 24 Projected 7th GW 25 Projected 7th GW 26 Projected 7th GW 27 Projected 7th GW 28 Projected 7th GW 29 Projected 7th GW 30 Projected 7th GW 31 Projected 7th GW 32 Projected 7th GW 33 Projected 7th GW 34 Projected 7th GW 35 Projected 7th GW 36 Projected 7th GW 37 Projected 7th GW 38 Projected 7th

Where Bournemouth actually are, week by week, against where the pre-season projection had them – shaded green while they run ahead of it, red while they run behind. Point at any gameweek for both figures.

Next up

Bournemouth 2–0 Sunderland

Sunday 18th October 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

whichteamwillwin.com
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Bournemouth win

2–0Full time

Bournemouth crest
◀ Bournemouth win Sunderland win ▶ 24% draw chance bookmakers
Sunderland crest

Confidence: Fair

BOU SUN D-D-D-L-L W-D-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches -1.00 -1.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-D-D-L D-W-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.81 1.03 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.40 1.65 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Strong 1565 Average 1476 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.32 1.39 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.32 1.57 Defence Conceded per game 2.20 2.07 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 4.6 4.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game BOU SUN D-D-D-L-L W-D-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches -1.00 -1.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-D-D-L D-W-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.81 1.03 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.40 1.65 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Strong 1565 Average 1476 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.32 1.39 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.32 1.57 Defence Conceded per game 2.20 2.07 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 4.6 4.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: Attack. This is the widest gap between them. Sunderland lead it, 1.65 to 1.40. In matches like this, the side scoring more freely usually wins – about 72% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

Against the call – Sunderland come out ahead on it, and Bournemouth are favoured anyway – on the strength of the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target.

  • The callBournemouth to win: 55% against 21%, with the draw at 24%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target.
  • For BournemouthGoals 1.81 v 1.03 (useful); Elo performance 1565 v 1476 (useful); Defence 1.32 v 1.57 (slight).
  • For SunderlandAttack 1.65 v 1.40 (slight).
  • FormBournemouth D-D-D-L-L, Sunderland W-D-L-L-L.
Bournemouth 4-2-3-1 confirmedSunderland 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Sunderland 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 Đ. Petrović 3 A. Truffert 14 António Silva 5 J. Hill 15 A. Smith 10 R. Christie 12 T. Adams 16 M. Tavernier 4 L. Cook 37 Rayan 9 Evanilson
22 R. Roefs 17 Reinildo Mandava 15 O. Alderete 4 K. Danso 20 N. Mukiele 27 N. Sadiki 34 G. Xhaka 11 C. Rigg 28 E. Le Fée 32 T. Hume 57 T. Tutierov
  1. Đ. Petrović
  2. A. Truffert
  3. António Silva
  4. J. Hill
  5. A. Smith
  6. R. Christie
  7. T. Adams
  8. M. Tavernier
  9. L. Cook
  10. Rayan
  11. Evanilson
  1. R. Roefs
  2. Reinildo Mandava
  3. O. Alderete
  4. K. Danso
  5. N. Mukiele
  6. N. Sadiki
  7. G. Xhaka
  8. C. Rigg
  9. E. Le Fée
  10. T. Hume
  11. T. Tutierov

Substitutes A. Adli, D. Brooks, M. Di Gregorio, B. Diakité, B. Gannon-Doak, J. Kluivert, Á. Rodríguez, J. Soler, Juanlu Sánchez

Substitutes J. Ahoka, R. Angulo, N. Angulo, H. Diarra, M. Ellborg, M. Fofana, D. Méthalie, L. O'Nien, C. Talbi

Our call: 55% BOU · 24% draw · 21% SUN  ·  bookmakers: 46% / 27% / 27%  ·  expected goals 1.81–1.03

Last updated 18 Oct at 13:16

Manchester United vs. Bournemouth

Sunday 25th October 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 8

whichteamwillwin.com

Manchester United win

Manchester United crest
◀ Man United win Bournemouth win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers
Bournemouth crest

Confidence: Slight

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MUN BOU D-L-D-D-D D-D-L-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.20 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-W-L-D W-D-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.67 1.32 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 5.3 4.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 70% 62% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.66 1.45 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 2.82 2.92 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.35 1.19 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Strong 1600 Strong 1571 Elo performance 1500 is average MUN BOU D-L-D-D-D D-D-L-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.20 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-W-L-D W-D-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.67 1.32 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 5.3 4.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 70% 62% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.66 1.45 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 2.82 2.92 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.35 1.19 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Strong 1600 Strong 1571 Elo performance 1500 is average

The key stat: Shots on target. This is the widest gap between them. Manchester United come out on top, 5.3 against 4.6. In matches like this, whoever worked the keeper harder usually wins – about 72% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callManchester United to win: 45% against 30%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and recent shots on target – the strongest pull the other way is changes in the other camp.
  • For Manchester UnitedGK save rate 70% v 62% (clear); Goal difference at this venue 0.80 v -0.80 (clear); Home and away form W-W-W-L-D v W-D-L-D-L (clear).
  • For BournemouthXI defensive record 1.19 v 1.35 (slight); XI attacking output 2.92 v 2.82 (marginal).
  • FormManchester United D-L-D-D-D, Bournemouth D-D-L-L-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Manchester United 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable · 3 doubtfulBournemouth 4-2-3-1 expected · 6 unavailable Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Manchester United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 S. Lammens 5 H. Maguire 2 Dalot 6 Martinez 23 L. Shaw 8 B.Fernandes 19 B. Mbeumo 18 Y. Tielemans 10 M. Cunha 37 K. Mainoo 9 M. Rashford
1 Đ. Petrović 5 J. Hill 3 A. Truffert 14 A. Silva 15 A. Smith 37 Rayan 12 T. Adams 16 M. Tavernier 10 R. Christie 19 J. Kluivert 9 Evanilson
  1. S. Lammens98%
  2. H. Maguire98%
  3. Dalot82%
  4. Martinez72%
  5. L. Shaw45%
  6. B.Fernandes98%
  7. B. Mbeumo98%
  8. Y. Tielemans94%
  9. M. Cunha79%
  10. K. Mainoo59%
  11. M. Rashford56%
  1. Đ. Petrović98%
  2. J. Hill98%
  3. A. Truffert98%
  4. A. Silva98%
  5. A. Smith97%
  6. Rayan98%
  7. T. Adams97%
  8. M. Tavernier95%
  9. R. Christie59%
  10. J. Kluivert39%
  11. Evanilson98%

Likely subs K. Darlow, L. Yoro, Amad, M. Mount, J. Zirkzee, M. De Ligt, S. Lacey

Likely subs M. Di Gregorio, Á. Rodríguez, D. Brooks, B. Diakité, B. Gannon-Doak, A. Adli, Sanchez

Doubts Martinez doubtful, K. Mainoo doubtful, L. Shaw doubtful, P. Dorgu injured, T. Heaton injured, Šeško injured, Ugarte injured, T. Collyer unavailable

Doubts A. Scott injured, W. Dennis unavailable, Kroupi.Jr injured, E. Ünal unavailable, Milosavljević injured, J.Araujo injured

Our call: 45% MUN · 25% draw · 30% BOU  ·  bookmakers: 51% / 24% / 25%  ·  expected goals 1.67–1.32

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Bournemouth vs. Leeds United

Saturday 31st October 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 9

whichteamwillwin.com

Bournemouth win

Bournemouth crest
◀ Bournemouth win Leeds United win ▶ 24% draw chance bookmakers
Leeds United crest

Confidence: Fair

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BOU LEE D-D-L-L-W D-W-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-D-L-W D-L-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.20 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.78 0.96 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.92 2.08 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 62% 74% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.12 1.56 Defence Conceded per game 4.6 3.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.19 1.33 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Strong 1571 Average 1518 Elo performance 1500 is average BOU LEE D-D-L-L-W D-W-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-D-L-W D-L-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.20 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.78 0.96 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.92 2.08 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 62% 74% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.12 1.56 Defence Conceded per game 4.6 3.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.19 1.33 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Strong 1571 Average 1518 Elo performance 1500 is average

The key stat: XI attacking output. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. It goes to Bournemouth: 2.92 to 2.08. When this gap appears, whoever fielded the greater attacking threat tends to win, in around 70% of cases. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callBournemouth to win: 56% against 20%, with the draw at 24%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and recent shots on target – the strongest pull the other way is a cup tie in the other side's legs.
  • For BournemouthXI attacking output 2.92 v 2.08 (clear); Goals 1.78 v 0.96 (useful); Defence 1.12 v 1.56 (useful).
  • For Leeds UnitedGK save rate 74% v 62% (decisive); Goal difference 0.40 v -0.60 (useful).
  • FormBournemouth D-D-L-L-W, Leeds United D-W-D-L-D.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1 expected · 6 unavailableLeeds United 3-4-2-1 expected · 7 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Leeds United 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

1 Đ. Petrović 5 J. Hill 3 A. Truffert 14 A. Silva 15 A. Smith 37 Rayan 12 T. Adams 16 M. Tavernier 10 R. Christie 19 J. Kluivert 9 Evanilson
1 J. Trafford 5 T. Muharemović 3 G. Gudmundsson 24 J. Justin 30 N. Elvedi 2 J. Bogle 18 A. Stach 4 E. Ampadu 22 Tanaka 19 N. Okafor 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
  1. Đ. Petrović98%
  2. J. Hill98%
  3. A. Truffert98%
  4. A. Silva98%
  5. A. Smith97%
  6. Rayan98%
  7. T. Adams97%
  8. M. Tavernier95%
  9. R. Christie59%
  10. J. Kluivert39%
  11. Evanilson98%
  1. J. Trafford98%
  2. T. Muharemović98%
  3. G. Gudmundsson98%
  4. J. Justin98%
  5. N. Elvedi98%
  6. J. Bogle94%
  7. A. Stach98%
  8. E. Ampadu98%
  9. Tanaka92%
  10. N. Okafor91%
  11. D. Calvert-Lewin97%

Likely subs M. Di Gregorio, Á. Rodríguez, D. Brooks, B. Diakité, B. Gannon-Doak, A. Adli, Sanchez

Likely subs H. Wilson, L. Nmecha, B. Aaronson, J. Bijol, I. Gruev, J. Bahoya, S. Longstaff

Doubts A. Scott injured, W. Dennis unavailable, Kroupi.Jr injured, E. Ünal unavailable, Milosavljević injured, J.Araujo injured

Doubts D. James doubtful, W. Gnonto unavailable, J. Harrison unavailable, J. Piroe unavailable, L. Perri unavailable, S. Bornauw unavailable, Mateo Joseph injured, J. Rodon injured

Our call: 56% BOU · 24% draw · 20% LEE  ·  bookmakers: 42% / 27% / 31%  ·  expected goals 1.78–0.96

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Ipswich Town vs. Bournemouth

Sunday 8th November 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 10

whichteamwillwin.com

Bournemouth win

Ipswich Town crest
◀ Ipswich Town win Bournemouth win ▶ 23% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Bournemouth crest

Confidence: Fair

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IPS BOU L-W-L-W-L D-D-L-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.40 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-L-W-L-W W-D-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.01 1.84 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.23 2.92 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.76 1.19 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.88 1.12 Defence Conceded per game Weak 1388 Strong 1571 Elo performance 1500 is average 58% 62% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved IPS BOU L-W-L-W-L D-D-L-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.40 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-L-W-L-W W-D-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.01 1.84 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.23 2.92 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.76 1.19 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.88 1.12 Defence Conceded per game Weak 1388 Strong 1571 Elo performance 1500 is average 58% 62% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved

The key stat: XI attacking output. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. It goes to Bournemouth: 2.92 to 2.23. Historically, the side naming the more potent eleven takes these roughly 73% of the time. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callBournemouth to win: 56% against 20%, with the draw at 23%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, the defence in front of them and what this eleven creates – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For BournemouthXI defensive record 1.19 v 1.76 (decisive); Defence 1.12 v 1.88 (decisive); Elo performance 1571 v 1388 (clear).
  • For Ipswich TownHome and away form L-L-W-L-W v W-D-L-D-L (marginal); Goal difference -0.40 v -0.60 (marginal); Goal difference at this venue -0.60 v -0.80 (marginal).
  • FormIpswich Town L-W-L-W-L, Bournemouth D-D-L-L-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailableBournemouth 4-2-3-1 expected · 6 unavailable Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

28 C. Walton 26 D. O'Shea 3 L. Davis 6 I. Diop 42 A. Ouattara 10 J. Enciso 25 E. Palacios 23 S. Lukić 38 D. Maeda 7 A. Fatawu 19 Emersonn
1 Đ. Petrović 5 J. Hill 3 A. Truffert 14 A. Silva 15 A. Smith 37 Rayan 12 T. Adams 16 M. Tavernier 10 R. Christie 19 J. Kluivert 9 Evanilson
  1. C. Walton60%
  2. D. O'Shea98%
  3. L. Davis98%
  4. I. Diop98%
  5. A. Ouattara61%
  6. J. Enciso96%
  7. E. Palacios80%
  8. S. Lukić77%
  9. D. Maeda59%
  10. A. Fatawu56%
  11. Emersonn91%
  1. Đ. Petrović98%
  2. J. Hill98%
  3. A. Truffert98%
  4. A. Silva98%
  5. A. Smith97%
  6. Rayan98%
  7. T. Adams97%
  8. M. Tavernier95%
  9. R. Christie59%
  10. J. Kluivert39%
  11. Evanilson98%

Likely subs J. Greaves, K. Scherpen, J. Clarke, Florentino, Z. Flemming, J. Philogene, C. Akpom

Likely subs M. Di Gregorio, Á. Rodríguez, D. Brooks, B. Diakité, B. Gannon-Doak, A. Adli, Sanchez

Doubts K. Van Oevelen unavailable, C. Humphreys unavailable, W. Burns unavailable, G. Hirst unavailable, S. Szmodics unavailable, A. Al-Hamadi unavailable, C. Ogbene unavailable, B. Johnson unavailable

Doubts A. Scott injured, W. Dennis unavailable, Kroupi.Jr injured, E. Ünal unavailable, Milosavljević injured, J.Araujo injured

Our call: 20% IPS · 23% draw · 56% BOU  ·  expected goals 1.01–1.84

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Bournemouth vs. Nottingham Forest

Saturday 21st November 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 11

whichteamwillwin.com

Bournemouth win

Bournemouth crest
◀ Bournemouth win Forest win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Nottingham Forest crest

Confidence: Fair

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BOU NFO D-D-L-L-W D-W-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-D-L-W W-L-D-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.20 0.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.72 1.03 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.92 2.57 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Strong 1571 Average 1501 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.45 1.53 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 62% 68% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.12 1.42 Defence Conceded per game 4.6 4.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game BOU NFO D-D-L-L-W D-W-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-D-L-W W-L-D-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.20 0.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.72 1.03 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.92 2.57 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Strong 1571 Average 1501 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.45 1.53 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 62% 68% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.12 1.42 Defence Conceded per game 4.6 4.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: XI attacking output. This is the widest gap between them. Bournemouth come out on top, 2.92 against 2.57. In matches like this, whoever fielded the greater attacking threat usually wins – about 72% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callBournemouth to win: 53% against 22%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target.
  • For BournemouthGoals 1.72 v 1.03 (useful); Defence 1.12 v 1.42 (useful); Elo performance 1571 v 1501 (slight).
  • For Nottingham ForestGK save rate 68% v 62% (clear); Home and away form W-L-D-W-L v D-D-D-L-W (marginal); Attack 1.53 v 1.45 (marginal).
  • FormBournemouth D-D-L-L-W, Nottingham Forest D-W-L-L-L.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1 expected · 6 unavailableNottingham Forest 3-4-2-1 expected · 7 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

1 Đ. Petrović 5 J. Hill 3 A. Truffert 14 A. Silva 15 A. Smith 37 Rayan 12 T. Adams 16 M. Tavernier 10 R. Christie 19 J. Kluivert 9 Evanilson
26 M. Sels 5 Murillo 3 N.Williams 27 Muñoz 2 O. Diomande 23 Jair Cunha 24 J. McAtee 21 X. Schlager 14 D. Ndoye 10 M. Gibbs-White 19 L. Delap
  1. Đ. Petrović98%
  2. J. Hill98%
  3. A. Truffert98%
  4. A. Silva98%
  5. A. Smith97%
  6. Rayan98%
  7. T. Adams97%
  8. M. Tavernier95%
  9. R. Christie59%
  10. J. Kluivert39%
  11. Evanilson98%
  1. M. Sels98%
  2. Murillo98%
  3. N.Williams98%
  4. Muñoz82%
  5. O. Diomande78%
  6. Jair Cunha59%
  7. J. McAtee98%
  8. X. Schlager98%
  9. D. Ndoye90%
  10. M. Gibbs-White60%
  11. L. Delap97%

Likely subs M. Di Gregorio, Á. Rodríguez, D. Brooks, B. Diakité, B. Gannon-Doak, A. Adli, Sanchez

Likely subs O. Aina, S. Benda, C. Hudson-Odoi, C. Wood, N. Milenković, A. Kalimuendo, I.Sangaré

Doubts A. Scott injured, W. Dennis unavailable, Kroupi.Jr injured, E. Ünal unavailable, Milosavljević injured, J.Araujo injured

Doubts M. Gibbs-White doubtful, T. Bindon unavailable, Igor Jesus injured, D. Bakwa unavailable, O. Hutchinson unavailable, Morato unavailable, N. Savona injured, Z. Abbott unavailable

Our call: 53% BOU · 24% draw · 22% NFO  ·  expected goals 1.72–1.03

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

The whole season

All 38 of Bournemouth's league matches, what we said would happen, and – where it has been played – what actually did. We have called 4 of 4 of their decided matches so far; 3 were draws, which nobody scores. Rows marked projected are today's model looking ahead: they move every time the season is re-projected, so they are not frozen and are never graded. Everything else is the call we published before kick-off.

GWKick-offOpponentWinDrawLoseOur callResultCalled it?
1 Sun 23 Aug, 14:00 Manchester City (A) 16% 21% 63% LoseConfidence: Strong 1–2
2 Sat 29 Aug, 15:00 Everton (H) 47% 25% 28% WinConfidence: Slight 1–1
3 Sat 5 Sept, 12:30 Newcastle United (A) 35% 27% 38% LoseConfidence: Knife-edge 2–2
4 Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 Brentford (H) 48% 26% 26% WinConfidence: Slight 2–2
5 Sun 20 Sept, 14:00 Liverpool (H) 37% 26% 38% LoseConfidence: Knife-edge 0–1
6 Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 Chelsea (A) 36% 26% 38% LoseConfidence: Knife-edge 1–5
7 Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 Sunderland (H) 55% 24% 21% WinConfidence: Fair 2–0
8 Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 Manchester United (A) 30% 25% 45% LoseConfidence: Slight –
9 Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Leeds United (H) 56% 24% 20% WinConfidence: Fair –
10 Sun 8 Nov, 14:00 Ipswich Town (A) 56% 23% 20% WinConfidence: Fair –
11 Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 Nottingham Forest (H) 53% 24% 22% WinConfidence: Fair –
12 Sun 29 Nov, 14:05 Fulham (A) 39% 27% 35% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
13 Wed 2 Dec, 20:00 Brighton & Hove Albion (H) 42% 26% 31% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
14 Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 Hull City (H) 65% 21% 15% WinProjected: Strong –
15 Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 Arsenal (A) 16% 22% 62% LoseProjected: Strong –
16 Sat 19 Dec, 15:00 Coventry City (H) 62% 22% 16% WinProjected: Strong –
17 Sat 26 Dec, 15:00 Tottenham Hotspur (A) 46% 26% 28% WinProjected: Slight –
18 Wed 30 Dec, 19:30 Crystal Palace (A) 45% 26% 29% WinProjected: Slight –
19 Sat 2 Jan, 17:30 Aston Villa (H) 44% 26% 30% WinProjected: Slight –
20 Tue 5 Jan, 19:30 Brighton & Hove Albion (A) 30% 26% 44% LoseProjected: Slight –
21 Sat 16 Jan, 15:00 Ipswich Town (H) 67% 20% 14% WinProjected: Strong –
22 Sat 23 Jan, 15:00 Nottingham Forest (A) 40% 27% 33% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
23 Sat 30 Jan, 15:00 Fulham (H) 51% 25% 24% WinProjected: Fair –
24 Sat 6 Feb, 15:00 Leeds United (A) 41% 27% 32% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
25 Wed 10 Feb, 20:00 Aston Villa (A) 31% 26% 42% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
26 Sat 20 Feb, 15:00 Crystal Palace (H) 59% 23% 19% WinProjected: Strong –
27 Sat 27 Feb, 15:00 Coventry City (A) 49% 25% 26% WinProjected: Fair –
28 Wed 3 Mar, 20:00 Tottenham Hotspur (H) 59% 23% 18% WinProjected: Strong –
29 Sat 13 Mar, 15:00 Newcastle United (H) 50% 25% 25% WinProjected: Fair –
30 Sat 20 Mar, 15:00 Brentford (A) 37% 26% 36% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
31 Sat 10 Apr, 15:00 Manchester City (H) 29% 25% 46% LoseProjected: Slight –
32 Sat 17 Apr, 15:00 Everton (A) 37% 27% 36% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
33 Sat 24 Apr, 15:00 Arsenal (H) 26% 26% 49% LoseProjected: Fair –
34 Sat 1 May, 15:00 Hull City (A) 52% 25% 23% WinProjected: Fair –
35 Sat 8 May, 15:00 Manchester United (H) 41% 26% 33% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
36 Sat 15 May, 15:00 Sunderland (A) 45% 26% 30% WinProjected: Slight –
37 Sun 23 May, 15:00 Chelsea (H) 46% 26% 29% WinProjected: Slight –
38 Sun 30 May, 16:00 Liverpool (A) 25% 25% 50% LoseProjected: Fair –

Called the winner Called it wrong Drawn – no winner to call