Which Team Will Win?

Manchester United vs. Bournemouth

Sunday 25th October 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 8

whichteamwillwin.com

Manchester United win

Manchester United crest
◀ Man United win Bournemouth win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers
Bournemouth crest

Confidence: Slight

MoreLess
MUN BOU D-L-D-D-D D-D-L-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.20 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-W-L-D W-D-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.67 1.32 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 5.3 4.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 70% 62% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.66 1.45 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 2.82 2.92 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.35 1.19 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Strong 1600 Strong 1571 Elo performance 1500 is average MUN BOU D-L-D-D-D D-D-L-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.20 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-W-L-D W-D-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.67 1.32 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 5.3 4.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 70% 62% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.66 1.45 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 2.82 2.92 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.35 1.19 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Strong 1600 Strong 1571 Elo performance 1500 is average

The key stat: Shots on target. This is the widest gap between them. Manchester United come out on top, 5.3 against 4.6. In matches like this, whoever worked the keeper harder usually wins – about 72% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callManchester United to win: 45% against 30%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and recent shots on target – the strongest pull the other way is changes in the other camp.
  • For Manchester UnitedGK save rate 70% v 62% (clear); Goal difference at this venue 0.80 v -0.80 (clear); Home and away form W-W-W-L-D v W-D-L-D-L (clear).
  • For BournemouthXI defensive record 1.19 v 1.35 (slight); XI attacking output 2.92 v 2.82 (marginal).
  • FormManchester United D-L-D-D-D, Bournemouth D-D-L-L-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Manchester United 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable · 3 doubtfulBournemouth 4-2-3-1 expected · 6 unavailable Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Manchester United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 S. Lammens 5 H. Maguire 2 Dalot 6 Martinez 23 L. Shaw 8 B.Fernandes 19 B. Mbeumo 18 Y. Tielemans 10 M. Cunha 37 K. Mainoo 9 M. Rashford
1 Đ. Petrović 5 J. Hill 3 A. Truffert 14 A. Silva 15 A. Smith 37 Rayan 12 T. Adams 16 M. Tavernier 10 R. Christie 19 J. Kluivert 9 Evanilson
  1. S. Lammens98%
  2. H. Maguire98%
  3. Dalot82%
  4. Martinez72%
  5. L. Shaw45%
  6. B.Fernandes98%
  7. B. Mbeumo98%
  8. Y. Tielemans94%
  9. M. Cunha79%
  10. K. Mainoo59%
  11. M. Rashford56%
  1. Đ. Petrović98%
  2. J. Hill98%
  3. A. Truffert98%
  4. A. Silva98%
  5. A. Smith97%
  6. Rayan98%
  7. T. Adams97%
  8. M. Tavernier95%
  9. R. Christie59%
  10. J. Kluivert39%
  11. Evanilson98%

Likely subs K. Darlow, L. Yoro, Amad, M. Mount, J. Zirkzee, M. De Ligt, S. Lacey

Likely subs M. Di Gregorio, Á. Rodríguez, D. Brooks, B. Diakité, B. Gannon-Doak, A. Adli, Sanchez

Doubts Martinez doubtful, K. Mainoo doubtful, L. Shaw doubtful, P. Dorgu injured, T. Heaton injured, Šeško injured, Ugarte injured, T. Collyer unavailable

Doubts A. Scott injured, W. Dennis unavailable, Kroupi.Jr injured, E. Ünal unavailable, Milosavljević injured, J.Araujo injured

Our call: 45% MUN · 25% draw · 30% BOU  ·  bookmakers: 51% / 24% / 25%  ·  expected goals 1.67–1.32

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ Man UnitedBournemouth ▸Goals
Home advantage 0.30
Long-run strength 0.13
Shots on target 0.09
Settled eleven 0.04
Defence 0.02
XI strength vs usual 0.02
Everything else 0.09
Man United ahead by 0.35

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Man United come out 0.35 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Bournemouth goals Man United goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Man United 0–0 Bournemouth: 5% Man United 0–1 Bournemouth: 6% Man United 0–2 Bournemouth: 4% Man United 0–3 Bournemouth: 2% Man United 0–4 Bournemouth: <1% Man United 0–5 Bournemouth: <1% Man United 1–0 Bournemouth: 8% Man United 1–1 Bournemouth: 11% Man United 1–2 Bournemouth: 7% Man United 1–3 Bournemouth: 3% Man United 1–4 Bournemouth: 1% Man United 1–5 Bournemouth: <1% Man United 1–6 Bournemouth: <1% Man United 2–0 Bournemouth: 7% Man United 2–1 Bournemouth: 9% Man United 2–2 Bournemouth: 6% Man United 2–3 Bournemouth: 3% Man United 2–4 Bournemouth: <1% Man United 2–5 Bournemouth: <1% Man United 2–6 Bournemouth: <1% Man United 3–0 Bournemouth: 4% Man United 3–1 Bournemouth: 5% Man United 3–2 Bournemouth: 3% Man United 3–3 Bournemouth: 2% Man United 3–4 Bournemouth: <1% Man United 3–5 Bournemouth: <1% Man United 4–0 Bournemouth: 2% Man United 4–1 Bournemouth: 2% Man United 4–2 Bournemouth: 1% Man United 4–3 Bournemouth: <1% Man United 4–4 Bournemouth: <1% Man United 4–5 Bournemouth: <1% Man United 5–0 Bournemouth: <1% Man United 5–1 Bournemouth: <1% Man United 5–2 Bournemouth: <1% Man United 5–3 Bournemouth: <1% Man United 5–4 Bournemouth: <1% Man United 6–0 Bournemouth: <1% Man United 6–1 Bournemouth: <1% Man United 6–2 Bournemouth: <1% Man United 6–3 Bournemouth: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Man United win, above it Bournemouth do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →