Which Team Will Win?

Manchester City

Every published prediction involving Manchester City, newest first, frozen at kick-off as always.

Projected league position, week by week

If the season plays out as the model expects, Manchester City finish 2nd on about 78 points. Every other club is drawn faintly for context.

1st 4th 10th 17th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 · 3rd 2 pts projected GW 2 · 2nd 4 pts projected GW 3 · 1st 6 pts projected GW 4 · 2nd 8 pts projected GW 5 · 1st 10 pts projected GW 6 · 2nd 12 pts projected GW 7 · 1st 15 pts projected GW 8 · 2nd 16 pts projected GW 9 · 1st 18 pts projected GW 10 · 2nd 20 pts projected GW 11 · 2nd 22 pts projected GW 12 · 2nd 24 pts projected GW 13 · 2nd 26 pts projected GW 14 · 2nd 28 pts projected GW 15 · 2nd 30 pts projected GW 16 · 1st 33 pts projected GW 17 · 1st 35 pts projected GW 18 · 1st 36 pts projected GW 19 · 1st 39 pts projected GW 20 · 2nd 41 pts projected GW 21 · 2nd 43 pts projected GW 22 · 2nd 45 pts projected GW 23 · 2nd 46 pts projected GW 24 · 2nd 48 pts projected GW 25 · 2nd 50 pts projected GW 26 · 2nd 52 pts projected GW 27 · 1st 55 pts projected GW 28 · 2nd 57 pts projected GW 29 · 1st 59 pts projected GW 30 · 2nd 61 pts projected GW 31 · 2nd 63 pts projected GW 32 · 2nd 65 pts projected GW 33 · 2nd 67 pts projected GW 34 · 2nd 69 pts projected GW 35 · 2nd 71 pts projected GW 36 · 1st 74 pts projected GW 37 · 1st 76 pts projected GW 38 · 2nd 78 pts projected

Against pre-season expectations

Once Manchester City have played a few matches, this chart will track where they actually are against where we projected them before a ball was kicked — green when they are running ahead of it, red when they are behind.

Next up

Manchester City vs. Bournemouth

Sunday 23rd August 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 1

whichteamwillwin.com

Manchester City win

◀ Man City win Bournemouth win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 20%

Confidence: Strong

More statsLess
Manchester City crest
MCI BOU D-W-W-D-L D-W-W-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) 1.00 0.80 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) D-W-W-W-L D-W-W-W-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 1.20 0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 56% 44% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 2.16 0.98 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 3.15 2.40 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 6.1 3.9 Exp: Shots on target Per game 70% 73% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Exceptional 1724 Strong 1594 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.91 1.69 Attack Goals and expected goals per game
Bournemouth crest

The key stat: XI attacking output. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. It goes to Manchester City: 3.15 to 2.40. Historically, the side naming the more potent eleven takes these roughly 74% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callManchester City to win: 64% against 16%, with the draw at 20%. Confidence strong.
  • For Manchester CityShots on target 6.1 v 3.9 (decisive); Goals 2.16 v 0.98 (clear); Possession 56% v 44% (clear).
  • For BournemouthGK save rate 73% v 70% (slight); Home and away form D-W-W-W-D v D-W-W-W-L (marginal).
  • FormManchester City D-W-W-D-L, Bournemouth D-W-W-D-D.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Manchester City 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Donnarumma98%
  2. O'Reilly98%
  3. Guéhi98%
  4. Khusanov98%
  5. Matheus N.98%
  6. Semenyo94%
  7. AndersonNEW81%
  8. Grealish81%
  9. Foden45%
  10. Savinho44%
  11. Haaland98%
  1. Petrović98%
  2. Hill98%
  3. Truffert98%
  4. Smith61%
  5. Diakité38%
  6. Tavernier98%
  7. Scott98%
  8. Rayan79%
  9. Adams47%
  10. Kluivert44%
  11. Evanilson95%

Likely subs Bettinelli, Rúben, Aït-Nouri, Gvardiol, Cherki, Lewis, N.Gonzalez

Likely subs Forster, Cook, Tóth.A, Brooks, Gannon-Doak, Soler, Rodríguez

Doubts Rodrigo unavailable, Doku injured, Phillips unavailable, Reijnders unavailable, Alleyne unavailable

Doubts Kroupi.Jr injured, Christie suspended, Adams doubtful, Milosavljević injured, J.Araujo injured, Brooks doubtful, Adli injured, Soler doubtful

Our call: 64% MCI · 20% draw · 16% BOU  ·  expected goals 2.16–0.98

Last updated today at 14:46

Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City

Friday 28th August 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 2

whichteamwillwin.com

Manchester City win

◀ Crystal Palace win Man City win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 22%

Confidence: Strong

More statsLess
Crystal Palace crest
CRY MCI L-D-L-D-L D-W-W-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) -1.40 1.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) D-W-D-D-L D-W-W-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.00 0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 43% 57% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.09 2.02 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Average 1518 Exceptional 1724 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 2.64 3.15 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.48 1.35 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.70 1.30 Defence Conceded per game 3.6 6.1 Exp: Shots on target Per game
Manchester City crest

The key stat: Elo performance. No other measure separates them as clearly. It goes to Manchester City: Exceptional to Average. the better-rated side normally comes out on top here — 75% of the time in recent seasons. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callManchester City to win: 58% against 20%, with the draw at 22%. Confidence strong.
  • For Manchester CityGoal difference 1.00 v -1.40 (decisive); Shots on target 6.1 v 3.6 (decisive); Elo performance 1724 v 1518 (decisive).
  • For Crystal PalaceNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormCrystal Palace L-D-L-D-L, Manchester City D-W-W-D-L.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

Manchester City 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Henderson75%
  2. Canvot98%
  3. Muñoz93%
  4. TomiyasuNEW80%
  5. Hughes92%
  6. Devenny81%
  7. McNeilNEW76%
  8. Kamada75%
  9. Sarr62%
  10. Lerma62%
  11. Strand Larsen76%
  1. Donnarumma98%
  2. O'Reilly98%
  3. Guéhi98%
  4. Khusanov98%
  5. Matheus N.98%
  6. Semenyo94%
  7. AndersonNEW81%
  8. Grealish81%
  9. Foden45%
  10. Savinho44%
  11. Haaland98%

Likely subs Chadi Riad, Mitchell, Richards, Yeremy, Wharton, Nketiah, Guessand

Likely subs Bettinelli, Rúben, Aït-Nouri, Gvardiol, Cherki, Lewis, N.Gonzalez

Doubts Henderson doubtful, Cardines unavailable, Uche unavailable

Doubts Rodrigo unavailable, Doku injured, Phillips unavailable, Reijnders unavailable, Alleyne unavailable

Our call: 20% CRY · 22% draw · 58% MCI  ·  expected goals 1.09–2.02

Last updated today at 14:46

The road ahead

The rest of Manchester City's next 20 fixtures. These are projections from today's model, refreshed each time the season is re-projected — unlike the published predictions above, they are not frozen and do not count towards the track record.

Kick-offGWOpponentWinDrawLoseOur call
Sat 5 Sept, 15:00 3 Coventry City (H) 75% 16% 10% Win 75%
Sun 13 Sept, 16:30 4 Manchester United (A) 43% 24% 33% Win 43%
Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 5 Sunderland (H) 72% 17% 11% Win 72%
Sun 11 Oct, 16:30 6 Liverpool (A) 43% 24% 32% Win 43%
Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 7 Ipswich Town (H) 86% 10% 4% Win 86%
Sat 24 Oct, 12:30 8 Aston Villa (A) 46% 24% 30% Win 46%
Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 9 Brighton & Hove Albion (H) 64% 20% 17% Win 64%
Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 10 Nottingham Forest (A) 56% 22% 22% Win 56%
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 11 Fulham (H) 68% 19% 13% Win 68%
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 12 Arsenal (A) 31% 24% 46% Lose 46%
Wed 2 Dec, 20:00 13 Leeds United (H) 70% 17% 12% Win 70%
Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 14 Brentford (A) 58% 22% 20% Win 58%
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 15 Chelsea (H) 66% 19% 14% Win 66%
Sat 19 Dec, 15:00 16 Hull City (H) 88% 8% 4% Win 88%
Sat 26 Dec, 15:00 17 Newcastle United (A) 54% 23% 23% Win 54%
Wed 30 Dec, 20:00 18 Everton (A) 55% 22% 22% Win 55%
Sat 2 Jan, 15:00 19 Tottenham Hotspur (H) 74% 16% 10% Win 74%
Wed 6 Jan, 20:00 20 Leeds United (A) 57% 22% 21% Win 57%