Which Team Will Win?

Manchester City

Where we have Manchester City finishing, the matches they have next, and every call we have made about them this season – frozen at kick-off, right or wrong.

Projected league position, week by week

If the season plays out as the model expects, Manchester City finish 1st on 111 points.

1st 4th 10th 17th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 1st BHA · 3 pts2nd ARS · 3 pts8th MCI · 3 pts17th MUN · 0 pts GW 2 1st MCI · 6 pts2nd ARS · 6 pts9th BHA · 3 pts10th MUN · 3 pts GW 3 1st MCI · 9 pts2nd ARS · 9 pts10th BHA · 4 pts11th MUN · 4 pts GW 4 1st ARS · 12 pts2nd MCI · 12 pts5th BHA · 7 pts13th MUN · 4 pts GW 5 1st MCI · 15 pts2nd ARS · 12 pts3rd BHA · 10 pts12th MUN · 5 pts GW 6 1st MCI · 18 pts2nd ARS · 15 pts3rd BHA · 13 pts13th MUN · 6 pts GW 7 1st MCI · 21 pts2nd ARS · 18 pts3rd BHA · 16 pts13th MUN · 7 pts GW 8 · projected 1st MCI · 24 pts2nd ARS · 21 pts3rd BHA · 16 pts9th MUN · 10 pts GW 9 · projected 1st MCI · 27 pts2nd ARS · 24 pts4th BHA · 16 pts11th MUN · 10 pts GW 10 · projected 1st MCI · 30 pts2nd ARS · 27 pts4th BHA · 19 pts9th MUN · 13 pts GW 11 · projected 1st MCI · 33 pts2nd ARS · 30 pts4th BHA · 22 pts12th MUN · 13 pts GW 12 · projected 1st MCI · 33 pts2nd ARS · 33 pts4th BHA · 25 pts10th MUN · 16 pts GW 13 · projected 1st MCI · 36 pts2nd ARS · 36 pts5th BHA · 25 pts9th MUN · 19 pts GW 14 · projected 1st MCI · 39 pts2nd ARS · 39 pts5th BHA · 28 pts8th MUN · 22 pts GW 15 · projected 1st MCI · 42 pts2nd ARS · 42 pts4th BHA · 31 pts7th MUN · 25 pts GW 16 · projected 1st MCI · 45 pts2nd ARS · 45 pts4th BHA · 34 pts8th MUN · 25 pts GW 17 · projected 1st MCI · 48 pts2nd ARS · 48 pts4th BHA · 37 pts8th MUN · 28 pts GW 18 · projected 1st MCI · 51 pts2nd ARS · 51 pts4th BHA · 40 pts7th MUN · 31 pts GW 19 · projected 1st MCI · 54 pts2nd ARS · 54 pts4th BHA · 43 pts8th MUN · 31 pts GW 20 · projected 1st MCI · 57 pts2nd ARS · 57 pts4th BHA · 46 pts7th MUN · 34 pts GW 21 · projected 1st MCI · 60 pts2nd ARS · 60 pts4th BHA · 49 pts7th MUN · 34 pts GW 22 · projected 1st MCI · 63 pts2nd ARS · 63 pts5th BHA · 49 pts7th MUN · 37 pts GW 23 · projected 1st MCI · 66 pts2nd ARS · 63 pts5th BHA · 52 pts7th MUN · 40 pts GW 24 · projected 1st MCI · 69 pts2nd ARS · 66 pts3rd BHA · 55 pts7th MUN · 43 pts GW 25 · projected 1st MCI · 72 pts2nd ARS · 69 pts4th BHA · 55 pts7th MUN · 46 pts GW 26 · projected 1st MCI · 75 pts2nd ARS · 72 pts4th BHA · 58 pts7th MUN · 49 pts GW 27 · projected 1st MCI · 78 pts2nd ARS · 75 pts4th BHA · 61 pts8th MUN · 49 pts GW 28 · projected 1st MCI · 81 pts2nd ARS · 78 pts4th BHA · 64 pts7th MUN · 52 pts GW 29 · projected 1st MCI · 84 pts2nd ARS · 81 pts4th BHA · 67 pts7th MUN · 55 pts GW 30 · projected 1st MCI · 87 pts2nd ARS · 84 pts4th BHA · 70 pts8th MUN · 55 pts GW 31 · projected 1st MCI · 90 pts2nd ARS · 87 pts4th BHA · 70 pts8th MUN · 58 pts GW 32 · projected 1st MCI · 93 pts2nd ARS · 90 pts4th BHA · 73 pts7th MUN · 61 pts GW 33 · projected 1st MCI · 96 pts2nd ARS · 93 pts4th BHA · 76 pts7th MUN · 64 pts GW 34 · projected 1st MCI · 99 pts2nd ARS · 96 pts4th BHA · 79 pts7th MUN · 67 pts GW 35 · projected 1st MCI · 102 pts2nd ARS · 99 pts4th BHA · 82 pts7th MUN · 67 pts GW 36 · projected 1st MCI · 105 pts2nd ARS · 102 pts4th BHA · 85 pts7th MUN · 70 pts GW 37 · projected 1st MCI · 108 pts2nd ARS · 105 pts3rd BHA · 88 pts6th MUN · 73 pts GW 38 · projected 1st MCI · 111 pts2nd ARS · 108 pts4th BHA · 88 pts6th MUN · 76 pts
Manchester City Arsenal titleBrighton & Hove Albion titleManchester United derby
Manchester City solid to the last match played, dashed for the forecast. Rivals are dotted throughout, with a dot on their last match played. The white lines are the ones a season is played against – the title, the Champions League places, Europe, and the drop.

Real results so far plus a called outcome for every match still to play, recalculated as results come in. Drawn beside them are the clubs they are actually racing: their usual rivals, and whoever this season has put them in the same fight with. Point at any gameweek for every club's position and points.

Against pre-season expectations

They are exactly where we projected them.

1st 10th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 · 5 places behind Projected 3rdActual 8th GW 2 · 1 place ahead Actual 1stProjected 2nd GW 3 Actual 1stProjected 1st GW 4 · 1 place behind Projected 1stActual 2nd GW 5 Actual 1stProjected 1st GW 6 Actual 1stProjected 1st GW 7 Actual 1stProjected 1st GW 8 Projected 1st GW 9 Projected 1st GW 10 Projected 1st GW 11 Projected 1st GW 12 Projected 1st GW 13 Projected 1st GW 14 Projected 1st GW 15 Projected 1st GW 16 Projected 1st GW 17 Projected 1st GW 18 Projected 1st GW 19 Projected 1st GW 20 Projected 1st GW 21 Projected 1st GW 22 Projected 1st GW 23 Projected 1st GW 24 Projected 1st GW 25 Projected 1st GW 26 Projected 1st GW 27 Projected 1st GW 28 Projected 1st GW 29 Projected 1st GW 30 Projected 1st GW 31 Projected 1st GW 32 Projected 1st GW 33 Projected 1st GW 34 Projected 1st GW 35 Projected 1st GW 36 Projected 1st GW 37 Projected 1st GW 38 Projected 1st

Where Manchester City actually are, week by week, against where the pre-season projection had them – shaded green while they run ahead of it, red while they run behind. Point at any gameweek for both figures.

Next up

Manchester City 3–2 Ipswich Town

Saturday 17th October 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

whichteamwillwin.com
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Manchester City win

3–2Full time

Manchester City crest
◀ Man City win Ipswich Town win ▶ 11% draw chance bookmakers
Ipswich Town crest

Confidence: Very strong

MCI IPS W-W-W-W-W L-L-W-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches 2.00 -0.80 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-L-W-W-W D-L-L-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.20 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 57% 43% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 3.03 0.71 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1757 Weak 1390 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 3.33 2.01 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.40 1.58 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.89 1.33 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 74% 58% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved MCI IPS W-W-W-W-W L-L-W-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches 2.00 -0.80 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-L-W-W-W D-L-L-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.20 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 57% 43% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 3.03 0.71 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1757 Weak 1390 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 3.33 2.01 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.40 1.58 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.89 1.33 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 74% 58% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved

The key stat: Elo performance. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Manchester City come out on top, Exceptional against Weak. When this gap appears, the side carrying the stronger record tends to win, in around 74% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callManchester City to win: 83% against 6%, with the draw at 11%. Confidence very strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and what this eleven creates – the strongest pull the other way is a cup tie in the other side's legs.
  • For Manchester CityGoal difference 2.00 v -0.80 (decisive); Goals 3.03 v 0.71 (decisive); Elo performance 1757 v 1390 (decisive).
  • For Ipswich TownNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormManchester City W-W-W-W-W, Ipswich Town L-L-W-L-W.
Manchester City 4-2-3-1 confirmedIpswich Town 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Manchester City 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 G. Donnarumma 33 N. O'Reilly 6 M. Guéhi 3 Rúben Dias 27 Matheus Nunes 32 A. Bouaddi 8 M. Kovačić 11 J. Doku 47 P. Foden 7 I. Ndiaye 9 E. Haaland
28 C. Walton 3 L. Davis 24 J. Greaves 6 I. Diop 26 D. O'Shea 25 E. Palacios 12 Florentino 38 D. Maeda 10 J. Enciso 42 A. Ouattara 19 Emersonn
  1. G. Donnarumma
  2. N. O'Reilly
  3. M. Guéhi
  4. Rúben Dias
  5. Matheus Nunes
  6. A. Bouaddi
  7. M. Kovačić
  8. J. Doku
  9. P. Foden
  10. I. Ndiaye
  11. E. Haaland
  1. C. Walton
  2. L. Davis
  3. J. Greaves
  4. I. Diop
  5. D. O'Shea
  6. E. Palacios
  7. Florentino
  8. D. Maeda
  9. J. Enciso
  10. A. Ouattara
  11. Emersonn

Substitutes E. Anderson, Allan, R. Aït-Nouri, R. Cherki, E. Fernández, J. Gvardiol, A. Khusanov, G. Rulli, A. Semenyo

Substitutes C. Akpom, J. Clarke, Z. Flemming, D. Furlong, A. Fatawu, C. Kipré, A. Matusiwa, J. Philogene, K. Scherpen

Our call: 83% MCI · 11% draw · 6% IPS  ·  bookmakers: 76% / 15% / 9%  ·  expected goals 3.03–0.71

Last updated 17 Oct at 14:09

Aston Villa vs. Manchester City

Saturday 24th October 2026 (Kick Off: 12:30) · Gameweek 8

whichteamwillwin.com

Manchester City win

Aston Villa crest
◀ Aston Villa win Man City win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers
Manchester City crest

Confidence: Slight

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AVL MCI D-L-W-D-W W-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 1.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-L-L-D D-D-W-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 1.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.29 1.64 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.05 3.12 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.30 2.03 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Strong 1598 Exceptional 1758 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.36 1.53 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 72% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.4 4.8 Exp: Shots on target Per game AVL MCI D-L-W-D-W W-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 1.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-L-L-D D-D-W-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 1.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.29 1.64 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.05 3.12 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.30 2.03 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Strong 1598 Exceptional 1758 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.36 1.53 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 72% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.4 4.8 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: XI attacking output. No other measure separates them as clearly. Manchester City lead it, 3.12 to 2.05. the side naming the more potent eleven normally comes out on top here – 70% of the time in recent seasons. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callManchester City to win: 45% against 30%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, what this eleven creates and recent shots on target – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For Manchester CityHome and away form D-D-W-W-W v L-W-L-L-D (decisive); XI attacking output 3.12 v 2.05 (decisive); Attack 2.03 v 1.30 (clear).
  • For Aston VillaXI defensive record 1.36 v 1.53 (useful).
  • FormAston Villa D-L-W-D-W, Manchester City W-W-W-W-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1 expected · 9 unavailable · 3 doubtfulManchester City 4-2-3-1 expected · 7 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Manchester City 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 Z. Suzuki 3 V. Lindelöf 5 T. Mings 2 M. Cash 29 Wan-Bissaka 8 B. Kamara 10 Buendía 7 J. McGinn 35 J. Gomes 44 J. Manzambi 11 N.Jackson
1 G. Donnarumma 6 M. Guéhi 3 Rúben 27 Matheus N. 24 J. Gvardiol 5 E. Anderson 17 Enzo 7 I. Ndiaye 10 R. Cherki 42 A. Semenyo 9 E. Haaland
  1. Z. Suzuki98%
  2. V. Lindelöf98%
  3. T. Mings86%
  4. M. Cash63%
  5. A. Wan-Bissaka44%
  6. B. Kamara98%
  7. Buendía92%
  8. J. McGinn83%
  9. J. Gomes58%
  10. J. Manzambi44%
  11. N.Jackson95%
  1. G. Donnarumma98%
  2. M. Guéhi98%
  3. Rúben98%
  4. Matheus N.79%
  5. J. Gvardiol65%
  6. E. Anderson81%
  7. Enzo80%
  8. I. Ndiaye79%
  9. R. Cherki73%
  10. A. Semenyo61%
  11. E. Haaland98%

Likely subs R. Barkley, T. Harwood-Bellis, L. Goretzka, G. Hemmings, I. Mbaye, B. Madjo, L. Bogarde

Likely subs N. O'Reilly, P. Foden, G. Rulli, Allan, A. Khusanov, R. Aït-Nouri, J. Doku

Doubts A. Wan-Bissaka doubtful, J. Manzambi doubtful, I. Maatsen injured, M. Ruggeri injured, G. Hemmings doubtful, Iling Jr unavailable, L. Lynch unavailable, O. Watkins unavailable

Doubts A. Semenyo doubtful, J. Monga unavailable, C. Echeverri unavailable, M. Alleyne unavailable, D. Mukasa unavailable, Rodrigo unavailable, T. Reijnders unavailable, K. Phillips unavailable

Our call: 30% AVL · 25% draw · 45% MCI  ·  bookmakers: 22% / 23% / 55%  ·  expected goals 1.29–1.64

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Manchester City vs. Brighton & Hove Albion

Saturday 31st October 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 9

whichteamwillwin.com

Manchester City win

Manchester City crest
◀ Man City win Brighton win ▶ 22% draw chance bookmakers
Brighton & Hove Albion crest

Confidence: Strong

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MCI BHA W-W-W-W-W D-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches 1.60 3.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-W-W-W L-L-L-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 2.01 1.07 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1758 Strong 1596 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 2.03 2.48 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.53 1.34 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 3.12 2.44 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 75% 71% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved MCI BHA W-W-W-W-W D-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches 1.60 3.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-W-W-W L-L-L-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 2.01 1.07 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1758 Strong 1596 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 2.03 2.48 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.53 1.34 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 3.12 2.44 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 75% 71% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved

The key stat: Elo performance. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. It goes to Manchester City: Exceptional to Strong. When this gap appears, the side carrying the stronger record tends to win, in around 74% of cases. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callManchester City to win: 59% against 19%, with the draw at 22%. Confidence strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and what this eleven creates – the strongest pull the other way is recent shots on target.
  • For Manchester CityHome and away form L-W-W-W-W v L-L-L-W-W (clear); Elo performance 1758 v 1596 (clear); Goals 2.01 v 1.07 (clear).
  • For Brighton & Hove AlbionGoal difference 3.00 v 1.60 (clear); Attack 2.48 v 2.03 (useful); XI defensive record 1.34 v 1.53 (useful).
  • FormManchester City W-W-W-W-W, Brighton & Hove Albion D-W-W-W-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Manchester City 4-2-3-1 expected · 7 unavailable · 1 doubtfulBrighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1 expected · 12 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Manchester City 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 G. Donnarumma 6 M. Guéhi 3 Rúben 27 Matheus N. 24 J. Gvardiol 5 E. Anderson 17 Enzo 7 I. Ndiaye 10 R. Cherki 42 A. Semenyo 9 E. Haaland
1 B. Verbruggen 44 Vuskovic 24 F.Kadıoğlu 29 M. De Cuyper 21 O. Boscagli 5 L. Dunk 13 P. Groß 26 Y. Ayari 25 Gomez 14 Andrés 19 C. Kostoulas
  1. G. Donnarumma98%
  2. M. Guéhi98%
  3. Rúben98%
  4. Matheus N.79%
  5. J. Gvardiol65%
  6. E. Anderson81%
  7. Enzo80%
  8. I. Ndiaye79%
  9. R. Cherki73%
  10. A. Semenyo61%
  11. E. Haaland98%
  1. B. Verbruggen98%
  2. Vuskovic98%
  3. F.Kadıoğlu98%
  4. M. De Cuyper97%
  5. O. Boscagli96%
  6. L. Dunk63%
  7. P. Groß98%
  8. Y. Ayari98%
  9. Gomez98%
  10. Andrés62%
  11. C. Kostoulas94%

Likely subs N. O'Reilly, P. Foden, G. Rulli, Allan, A. Khusanov, R. Aït-Nouri, J. Doku

Likely subs M. Yalcouyé, P. Struijk, J. Hinshelwood, M. O'Riley, Georginio, M. Svoboda, I. Osman

Doubts A. Semenyo doubtful, J. Monga unavailable, C. Echeverri unavailable, M. Alleyne unavailable, D. Mukasa unavailable, Rodrigo unavailable, T. Reijnders unavailable, K. Phillips unavailable

Doubts F. Azeez injured, P. Struijk doubtful, A. Cozier-Duberry unavailable, Z. Yohanna injured, Mitoma injured, Y. Minteh injured, S. Tzimas injured, F. Buonanotte unavailable

Our call: 59% MCI · 22% draw · 19% BHA  ·  bookmakers: 59% / 22% / 20%  ·  expected goals 2.01–1.07

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester City

Saturday 7th November 2026 (Kick Off: 17:30) · Gameweek 10

whichteamwillwin.com

Manchester City win

Nottingham Forest crest
◀ Forest win Man City win ▶ 22% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Manchester City crest

Confidence: Strong

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NFO MCI D-W-L-L-L W-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 1.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-L-D-L-L D-D-W-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 1.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 44% 56% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.00 1.95 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Average 1501 Exceptional 1758 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 2.57 3.12 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.53 2.03 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.34 1.53 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 68% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.2 4.8 Exp: Shots on target Per game NFO MCI D-W-L-L-L W-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 1.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-L-D-L-L D-D-W-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 1.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 44% 56% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.00 1.95 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Average 1501 Exceptional 1758 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 2.57 3.12 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.53 2.03 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.34 1.53 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 68% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.2 4.8 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: Elo performance. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Manchester City come out on top, Exceptional against Average. When this gap appears, the side carrying the stronger record tends to win, in around 75% of cases. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callManchester City to win: 59% against 19%, with the draw at 22%. Confidence strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and what this eleven creates – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For Manchester CityHome and away form D-D-W-W-W v D-L-D-L-L (decisive); Elo performance 1758 v 1501 (decisive); Goal difference 1.60 v -0.60 (decisive).
  • For Nottingham ForestXI defensive record 1.34 v 1.53 (useful).
  • FormNottingham Forest D-W-L-L-L, Manchester City W-W-W-W-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1 expected · 7 unavailable · 1 doubtfulManchester City 4-2-3-1 expected · 7 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

Manchester City 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

26 M. Sels 5 Murillo 3 N.Williams 27 Muñoz 2 O. Diomande 23 Jair Cunha 24 J. McAtee 21 X. Schlager 14 D. Ndoye 10 M. Gibbs-White 19 L. Delap
1 G. Donnarumma 6 M. Guéhi 3 Rúben 27 Matheus N. 24 J. Gvardiol 5 E. Anderson 17 Enzo 7 I. Ndiaye 10 R. Cherki 42 A. Semenyo 9 E. Haaland
  1. M. Sels98%
  2. Murillo98%
  3. N.Williams98%
  4. Muñoz82%
  5. O. Diomande78%
  6. Jair Cunha59%
  7. J. McAtee98%
  8. X. Schlager98%
  9. D. Ndoye90%
  10. M. Gibbs-White60%
  11. L. Delap97%
  1. G. Donnarumma98%
  2. M. Guéhi98%
  3. Rúben98%
  4. Matheus N.79%
  5. J. Gvardiol65%
  6. E. Anderson81%
  7. Enzo80%
  8. I. Ndiaye79%
  9. R. Cherki73%
  10. A. Semenyo61%
  11. E. Haaland98%

Likely subs O. Aina, S. Benda, C. Hudson-Odoi, C. Wood, N. Milenković, A. Kalimuendo, I.Sangaré

Likely subs N. O'Reilly, P. Foden, G. Rulli, Allan, A. Khusanov, R. Aït-Nouri, J. Doku

Doubts M. Gibbs-White doubtful, T. Bindon unavailable, Igor Jesus injured, D. Bakwa unavailable, O. Hutchinson unavailable, Morato unavailable, N. Savona injured, Z. Abbott unavailable

Doubts A. Semenyo doubtful, J. Monga unavailable, C. Echeverri unavailable, M. Alleyne unavailable, D. Mukasa unavailable, Rodrigo unavailable, T. Reijnders unavailable, K. Phillips unavailable

Our call: 18% NFO · 22% draw · 59% MCI  ·  expected goals 1.00–1.95

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Manchester City vs. Fulham

Saturday 21st November 2026 (Kick Off: 12:30) · Gameweek 11

whichteamwillwin.com

Manchester City win

Manchester City crest
◀ Man City win Fulham win ▶ 19% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Fulham crest

Confidence: Strong

MoreLess
MCI FUL W-W-W-W-W L-D-D-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches 1.60 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-W-W-W L-D-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 2.20 0.88 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1758 Average 1501 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 3.12 2.68 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 2.03 1.50 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 75% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.53 1.25 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven MCI FUL W-W-W-W-W L-D-D-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches 1.60 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-W-W-W L-D-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 2.20 0.88 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1758 Average 1501 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 3.12 2.68 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 2.03 1.50 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 75% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.53 1.25 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven

The key stat: Elo performance. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Manchester City lead it, Exceptional to Average. When this gap appears, the side carrying the stronger record tends to win, in around 75% of cases. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callManchester City to win: 67% against 14%, with the draw at 19%. Confidence strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and what this eleven creates – the strongest pull the other way is changes in the other camp.
  • For Manchester CityHome and away form L-W-W-W-W v L-D-L-D-L (decisive); Elo performance 1758 v 1501 (decisive); Goals 2.20 v 0.88 (decisive).
  • For FulhamXI defensive record 1.25 v 1.53 (clear).
  • FormManchester City W-W-W-W-W, Fulham L-D-D-L-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Manchester City 4-2-3-1 expected · 7 unavailable · 1 doubtfulFulham 4-2-3-1 expected · 3 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Manchester City 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Fulham 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 G. Donnarumma 6 M. Guéhi 3 Rúben 27 Matheus N. 24 J. Gvardiol 5 E. Anderson 17 Enzo 7 I. Ndiaye 10 R. Cherki 42 A. Semenyo 9 E. Haaland
1 B. Leno 3 C. Bassey 22 Affengruber 33 A. Robinson 21 T. Castagne 19 S. Charles 17 A. Iwobi 24 J. King 14 O. Bobb 16 S. Berge 7 Gonzalo
  1. G. Donnarumma98%
  2. M. Guéhi98%
  3. Rúben98%
  4. Matheus N.79%
  5. J. Gvardiol65%
  6. E. Anderson81%
  7. Enzo80%
  8. I. Ndiaye79%
  9. R. Cherki73%
  10. A. Semenyo61%
  11. E. Haaland98%
  1. B. Leno98%
  2. C. Bassey98%
  3. D. Affengruber80%
  4. A. Robinson79%
  5. T. Castagne78%
  6. S. Charles97%
  7. A. Iwobi96%
  8. J. King95%
  9. O. Bobb92%
  10. S. Berge81%
  11. Gonzalo97%

Likely subs N. O'Reilly, P. Foden, G. Rulli, Allan, A. Khusanov, R. Aït-Nouri, J. Doku

Likely subs B. Lecomte, Muniz, C. Palacios, Kevin, J. Andersen, Ángel, T. Cairney

Doubts A. Semenyo doubtful, J. Monga unavailable, C. Echeverri unavailable, M. Alleyne unavailable, D. Mukasa unavailable, Rodrigo unavailable, T. Reijnders unavailable, K. Phillips unavailable

Doubts R. Sessegnon suspended, A. McNally unavailable, L. De Fougerolles unavailable, H. Larsson doubtful

Our call: 67% MCI · 19% draw · 14% FUL  ·  expected goals 2.20–0.88

Unchanged since 17 Oct at 20:00 · checked today at 10:57

The whole season

All 38 of Manchester City's league matches, what we said would happen, and – where it has been played – what actually did. We have called 7 of 7 of their decided matches so far. Rows marked projected are today's model looking ahead: they move every time the season is re-projected, so they are not frozen and are never graded. Everything else is the call we published before kick-off.

GWKick-offOpponentWinDrawLoseOur callResultCalled it?
1 Sun 23 Aug, 14:00 Bournemouth (H) 63% 21% 16% WinConfidence: Strong 2–1
2 Fri 28 Aug, 20:00 Crystal Palace (A) 61% 21% 18% WinConfidence: Strong 4–1
3 Sat 5 Sept, 15:00 Coventry City (H) 80% 13% 7% WinConfidence: Very strong 1–0
4 Sun 13 Sept, 16:30 Manchester United (A) 47% 24% 29% WinConfidence: Slight 1–0
5 Sun 20 Sept, 14:00 Sunderland (H) 74% 16% 10% WinConfidence: Very strong 5–3
6 Sun 11 Oct, 16:30 Liverpool (A) 44% 26% 30% WinConfidence: Slight 3–0
7 Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Ipswich Town (H) 83% 11% 6% WinConfidence: Very strong 3–2
8 Sat 24 Oct, 12:30 Aston Villa (A) 45% 25% 30% WinConfidence: Slight –
9 Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Brighton & Hove Albion (H) 59% 22% 19% WinConfidence: Strong –
10 Sat 7 Nov, 17:30 Nottingham Forest (A) 59% 22% 18% WinConfidence: Strong –
11 Sat 21 Nov, 12:30 Fulham (H) 67% 19% 14% WinConfidence: Strong –
12 Sun 29 Nov, 16:30 Arsenal (A) 27% 25% 47% LoseProjected: Slight –
13 Wed 2 Dec, 20:00 Leeds United (H) 69% 19% 12% WinProjected: Very strong –
14 Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 Brentford (A) 53% 24% 23% WinProjected: Fair –
15 Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 Chelsea (H) 61% 21% 17% WinProjected: Strong –
16 Sat 19 Dec, 15:00 Hull City (H) 79% 14% 7% WinProjected: Very strong –
17 Sat 26 Dec, 20:00 Newcastle United (A) 53% 24% 23% WinProjected: Fair –
18 Tue 29 Dec, 20:15 Everton (A) 53% 24% 23% WinProjected: Fair –
19 Sun 3 Jan, 16:30 Tottenham Hotspur (H) 74% 16% 9% WinProjected: Very strong –
20 Wed 6 Jan, 20:15 Leeds United (A) 57% 23% 20% WinProjected: Strong –
21 Sat 16 Jan, 15:00 Nottingham Forest (H) 69% 19% 12% WinProjected: Very strong –
22 Sat 23 Jan, 15:00 Brighton & Hove Albion (A) 45% 26% 30% WinProjected: Slight –
23 Sat 30 Jan, 15:00 Arsenal (H) 39% 26% 35% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
24 Sat 6 Feb, 15:00 Fulham (A) 54% 24% 22% WinProjected: Fair –
25 Wed 10 Feb, 20:00 Tottenham Hotspur (A) 62% 21% 16% WinProjected: Strong –
26 Sat 20 Feb, 15:00 Newcastle United (H) 66% 20% 14% WinProjected: Strong –
27 Sat 27 Feb, 15:00 Hull City (A) 67% 19% 13% WinProjected: Strong –
28 Wed 3 Mar, 20:00 Everton (H) 66% 20% 14% WinProjected: Strong –
29 Sat 13 Mar, 15:00 Coventry City (A) 65% 20% 15% WinProjected: Strong –
30 Sat 20 Mar, 15:00 Manchester United (H) 58% 22% 20% WinProjected: Strong –
31 Sat 10 Apr, 15:00 Bournemouth (A) 46% 25% 29% WinProjected: Slight –
32 Sat 17 Apr, 15:00 Crystal Palace (H) 74% 16% 10% WinProjected: Very strong –
33 Sat 24 Apr, 15:00 Chelsea (A) 48% 25% 27% WinProjected: Slight –
34 Sat 1 May, 15:00 Brentford (H) 66% 19% 14% WinProjected: Strong –
35 Sat 8 May, 15:00 Liverpool (H) 53% 24% 23% WinProjected: Fair –
36 Sat 15 May, 15:00 Ipswich Town (A) 70% 18% 12% WinProjected: Very strong –
37 Sun 23 May, 15:00 Aston Villa (H) 59% 22% 18% WinProjected: Strong –
38 Sun 30 May, 16:00 Sunderland (A) 61% 21% 18% WinProjected: Strong –

Called the winner Called it wrong Drawn – no winner to call