Which Team Will Win?

Manchester City vs. Fulham

Saturday 21st November 2026 (Kick Off: 12:30) · Gameweek 11

whichteamwillwin.com

Manchester City win

Manchester City crest
◀ Man City win Fulham win ▶ 19% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Fulham crest

Confidence: Strong

MoreLess
MCI FUL W-W-W-W-W L-D-D-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches 1.60 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-W-W-W L-D-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 2.20 0.88 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1758 Average 1501 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 3.12 2.68 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 2.03 1.50 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 75% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.53 1.25 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven MCI FUL W-W-W-W-W L-D-D-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches 1.60 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-W-W-W L-D-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 2.20 0.88 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1758 Average 1501 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 3.12 2.68 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 2.03 1.50 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 75% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.53 1.25 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven

The key stat: Elo performance. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Manchester City lead it, Exceptional to Average. When this gap appears, the side carrying the stronger record tends to win, in around 75% of cases. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callManchester City to win: 67% against 14%, with the draw at 19%. Confidence strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and what this eleven creates – the strongest pull the other way is changes in the other camp.
  • For Manchester CityHome and away form L-W-W-W-W v L-D-L-D-L (decisive); Elo performance 1758 v 1501 (decisive); Goals 2.20 v 0.88 (decisive).
  • For FulhamXI defensive record 1.25 v 1.53 (clear).
  • FormManchester City W-W-W-W-W, Fulham L-D-D-L-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Manchester City 4-2-3-1 expected · 7 unavailable · 1 doubtfulFulham 4-2-3-1 expected · 3 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Manchester City 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Fulham 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 G. Donnarumma 6 M. Guéhi 3 Rúben 27 Matheus N. 24 J. Gvardiol 5 E. Anderson 17 Enzo 7 I. Ndiaye 10 R. Cherki 42 A. Semenyo 9 E. Haaland
1 B. Leno 3 C. Bassey 22 Affengruber 33 A. Robinson 21 T. Castagne 19 S. Charles 17 A. Iwobi 24 J. King 14 O. Bobb 16 S. Berge 7 Gonzalo
  1. G. Donnarumma98%
  2. M. Guéhi98%
  3. Rúben98%
  4. Matheus N.79%
  5. J. Gvardiol65%
  6. E. Anderson81%
  7. Enzo80%
  8. I. Ndiaye79%
  9. R. Cherki73%
  10. A. Semenyo61%
  11. E. Haaland98%
  1. B. Leno98%
  2. C. Bassey98%
  3. D. Affengruber80%
  4. A. Robinson79%
  5. T. Castagne78%
  6. S. Charles97%
  7. A. Iwobi96%
  8. J. King95%
  9. O. Bobb92%
  10. S. Berge81%
  11. Gonzalo97%

Likely subs N. O'Reilly, P. Foden, G. Rulli, Allan, A. Khusanov, R. Aït-Nouri, J. Doku

Likely subs B. Lecomte, Muniz, C. Palacios, Kevin, J. Andersen, Ángel, T. Cairney

Doubts A. Semenyo doubtful, J. Monga unavailable, C. Echeverri unavailable, M. Alleyne unavailable, D. Mukasa unavailable, Rodrigo unavailable, T. Reijnders unavailable, K. Phillips unavailable

Doubts R. Sessegnon suspended, A. McNally unavailable, L. De Fougerolles unavailable, H. Larsson doubtful

Our call: 67% MCI · 19% draw · 14% FUL  ·  expected goals 2.20–0.88

Unchanged since 17 Oct at 20:00 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ Man CityFulham ▸Goals
Long-run strength 1.14
Home advantage 0.29
Settled eleven 0.07
Defence 0.04
XI attacking output 0.04
Shots on target 0.04
Everything else 0.08
Man City ahead by 1.31

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Man City come out 1.31 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 2–0

Fulham goals Man City goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Man City 0–0 Fulham: 5% Man City 0–1 Fulham: 4% Man City 0–2 Fulham: 2% Man City 0–3 Fulham: <1% Man City 0–4 Fulham: <1% Man City 1–0 Fulham: 10% Man City 1–1 Fulham: 9% Man City 1–2 Fulham: 4% Man City 1–3 Fulham: 1% Man City 1–4 Fulham: <1% Man City 2–0 Fulham: 11% Man City 2–1 Fulham: 10% Man City 2–2 Fulham: 4% Man City 2–3 Fulham: 1% Man City 2–4 Fulham: <1% Man City 2–5 Fulham: <1% Man City 3–0 Fulham: 8% Man City 3–1 Fulham: 7% Man City 3–2 Fulham: 3% Man City 3–3 Fulham: <1% Man City 3–4 Fulham: <1% Man City 4–0 Fulham: 4% Man City 4–1 Fulham: 4% Man City 4–2 Fulham: 2% Man City 4–3 Fulham: <1% Man City 4–4 Fulham: <1% Man City 5–0 Fulham: 2% Man City 5–1 Fulham: 2% Man City 5–2 Fulham: <1% Man City 5–3 Fulham: <1% Man City 5–4 Fulham: <1% Man City 6–0 Fulham: <1% Man City 6–1 Fulham: <1% Man City 6–2 Fulham: <1% Man City 6–3 Fulham: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Man City win, above it Fulham do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →