Which Team Will Win?

Leeds United

Every published prediction involving Leeds United, newest first, frozen at kick-off as always.

Projected league position, week by week

If the season plays out as the model expects, Leeds United finish 13th on about 49 points. Every other club is drawn faintly for context.

1st 4th 10th 17th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 · 14th 1 pts projected GW 2 · 9th 3 pts projected GW 3 · 13th 4 pts projected GW 4 · 13th 5 pts projected GW 5 · 11th 7 pts projected GW 6 · 15th 7 pts projected GW 7 · 15th 9 pts projected GW 8 · 15th 10 pts projected GW 9 · 16th 11 pts projected GW 10 · 14th 12 pts projected GW 11 · 16th 14 pts projected GW 12 · 14th 15 pts projected GW 13 · 16th 16 pts projected GW 14 · 13th 18 pts projected GW 15 · 14th 19 pts projected GW 16 · 13th 20 pts projected GW 17 · 13th 21 pts projected GW 18 · 13th 23 pts projected GW 19 · 13th 25 pts projected GW 20 · 13th 25 pts projected GW 21 · 13th 27 pts projected GW 22 · 13th 28 pts projected GW 23 · 13th 30 pts projected GW 24 · 13th 31 pts projected GW 25 · 14th 32 pts projected GW 26 · 13th 33 pts projected GW 27 · 14th 35 pts projected GW 28 · 12th 37 pts projected GW 29 · 11th 38 pts projected GW 30 · 12th 39 pts projected GW 31 · 10th 41 pts projected GW 32 · 11th 42 pts projected GW 33 · 12th 43 pts projected GW 34 · 11th 45 pts projected GW 35 · 13th 46 pts projected GW 36 · 13th 47 pts projected GW 37 · 13th 48 pts projected GW 38 · 13th 49 pts projected

Against pre-season expectations

Once Leeds United have played a few matches, this chart will track where they actually are against where we projected them before a ball was kicked — green when they are running ahead of it, red when they are behind.

Next up

Nottingham Forest vs. Leeds United

Saturday 22nd August 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 1

whichteamwillwin.com

Nottingham Forest win

◀ Forest win Leeds United win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 25%

Confidence: Slight

More statsLess
Nottingham Forest crest
NFO LEE W-W-D-L-D D-W-D-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) 1.20 0.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) D-D-W-D-D D-W-D-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.60 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.58 1.27 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT — AGAINST THE CALL 2.38 2.80 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 75% 62% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.45 1.40 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Above average 1527 Average 1498 Elo performance 1500 is average 4.6 4.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game
Leeds United crest

The key stat: XI attacking output. This is the widest gap between them. It goes to Leeds United: 2.80 to 2.38. In matches like this, whoever fielded the greater attacking threat usually wins — about 71% of the time. It points the other way to our call, though: we still favour Nottingham Forest, who lead on goal difference, their home-and-away records and goal difference in this setting. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callNottingham Forest to win: 44% against 30%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence slight.
  • For Nottingham ForestGK save rate 75% v 62% (decisive); Goal difference 1.20 v 0.00 (clear); Goal difference at this venue 0.60 v -0.40 (useful).
  • For Leeds UnitedPossession 53% v 47% (useful); XI attacking output 2.80 v 2.38 (useful); XI defensive record 1.40 v 1.45 (marginal).
  • FormNottingham Forest W-W-D-L-D, Leeds United D-W-D-W-L.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Nottingham Forest 4-4-2

Expected starting XI

Leeds United 3-5-2

Expected starting XI

  1. Sels98%
  2. Aina98%
  3. Murillo97%
  4. Milenković83%
  5. N.Williams83%
  6. Gibbs-White81%
  7. I.Sangaré77%
  8. Hudson-Odoi76%
  9. Hutchinson59%
  10. Igor Jesus94%
  11. Wood59%
  1. TraffordNEW98%
  2. Justin98%
  3. Bijol97%
  4. Bogle96%
  5. Ampadu98%
  6. Stach98%
  7. Tanaka96%
  8. Aaronson77%
  9. Okafor75%
  10. Calvert-Lewin98%
  11. Nmecha27%

Likely subs John, Morato, Jair Cunha, Netz, Dominguez, Bakwa, Abbott

Likely subs Perri, Rodon, Wilson, James, Longstaff, Muharemović, Elvedi

Doubts Savona injured, Yates injured

Doubts Gudmundsson injured, Gruev injured, Bornauw unavailable, Harrison unavailable, Gnonto injured, Piroe unavailable, Mateo Joseph injured

Our call: 44% NFO · 25% draw · 30% LEE  ·  expected goals 1.58–1.27

Last updated 19 Aug at 12:28

Leeds United vs. Brentford

Sunday 30th August 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 2

whichteamwillwin.com

Leeds United win against the odds

◀ Leeds United win Brentford win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 26%

Confidence: Slight

More statsLess
Leeds United crest
LEE BRE D-W-D-W-L L-W-L-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) 0.00 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) L-D-W-W-W D-D-L-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 1.00 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.52 1.17 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.80 2.22 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 62% 74% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.49 1.74 Defence Conceded per game 4.2 3.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game Average 1498 Above average 1552 Elo performance 1500 is average
Brentford crest

The key stat: XI attacking output. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. It goes to Leeds United: 2.80 to 2.22. Historically, the side naming the more potent eleven takes these roughly 71% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callLeeds United to win: 45% against 29%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • For Leeds UnitedHome and away form L-D-W-W-W v D-D-L-L-D (decisive); Goal difference at this venue 1.00 v -0.80 (clear); XI attacking output 2.80 v 2.22 (useful).
  • For BrentfordGK save rate 74% v 62% (decisive); Elo performance 1552 v 1498 (slight); Possession 50% v 50% (marginal).
  • FormLeeds United D-W-D-W-L, Brentford L-W-L-D-D.
  • Worth knowingThis call goes against both the ratings and the bookmakers.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Leeds United 3-5-2

Expected starting XI

Brentford 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. TraffordNEW98%
  2. Justin98%
  3. Bijol97%
  4. Bogle96%
  5. Ampadu98%
  6. Stach98%
  7. Tanaka96%
  8. Aaronson77%
  9. Okafor75%
  10. Calvert-Lewin98%
  11. Nmecha27%
  1. Kelleher98%
  2. Collins98%
  3. Kayode98%
  4. Pinnock97%
  5. Henry95%
  6. AnthonyNEW98%
  7. Lewis-Potter98%
  8. Yarmoliuk98%
  9. Jensen98%
  10. O.Dango81%
  11. Thiago98%

Likely subs Perri, Rodon, Wilson, James, Longstaff, Muharemović, Elvedi

Likely subs Schade, Damsgaard, Janelt, Ajer, Valdimarsson, Hickey, Wilson

Doubts Gudmundsson injured, Gruev injured, Bornauw unavailable, Harrison unavailable, Gnonto injured, Piroe unavailable, Mateo Joseph injured

Doubts Van den Berg injured, Milambo injured, Carvalho doubtful

Our call: 45% LEE · 26% draw · 29% BRE  ·  expected goals 1.52–1.17

Last updated 19 Aug at 12:28

The road ahead

The rest of Leeds United's next 20 fixtures. These are projections from today's model, refreshed each time the season is re-projected — unlike the published predictions above, they are not frozen and do not count towards the track record.

Kick-offGWOpponentWinDrawLoseOur call
Sat 5 Sept, 15:00 3 Brighton & Hove Albion (A) 23% 24% 53% Lose 53%
Mon 14 Sept, 20:00 4 Newcastle United (H) 41% 26% 33% Win 41%
Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 5 Crystal Palace (H) 45% 26% 29% Win 45%
Sat 10 Oct, 12:30 6 Arsenal (A) 12% 18% 70% Lose 70%
Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 7 Manchester United (H) 31% 25% 44% Lose 44%
Sun 25 Oct, 16:30 8 Sunderland (A) 33% 26% 41% Lose 41%
Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 9 Bournemouth (A) 26% 25% 49% Lose 49%
Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 10 Tottenham Hotspur (H) 48% 26% 27% Win 48%
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 11 Chelsea (A) 28% 25% 47% Lose 47%
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 12 Coventry City (H) 51% 24% 25% Win 51%
Wed 2 Dec, 20:00 13 Manchester City (A) 12% 17% 70% Lose 70%
Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 14 Ipswich Town (H) 64% 21% 15% Win 64%
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 15 Liverpool (A) 20% 23% 57% Lose 57%
Sat 19 Dec, 15:00 16 Fulham (H) 42% 27% 32% Win 42%
Sat 26 Dec, 15:00 17 Aston Villa (A) 22% 23% 54% Lose 54%
Wed 30 Dec, 20:00 18 Hull City (A) 53% 23% 23% Win 53%
Sat 2 Jan, 15:00 19 Everton (H) 42% 26% 33% Win 42%
Wed 6 Jan, 20:00 20 Manchester City (H) 21% 22% 57% Lose 57%