Which Team Will Win?

Leeds United

Where we have Leeds United finishing, the matches they have next, and every call we have made about them this season – frozen at kick-off, right or wrong.

Projected league position, week by week

If the season plays out as the model expects, Leeds United finish 13th on 43 points.

1st 4th 10th 17th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 3rd BRE · 3 pts4th EVE · 3 pts5th HUL · 3 pts9th LEE · 3 pts11th NEW · 1 pts GW 2 3rd HUL · 6 pts5th BRE · 4 pts6th NEW · 4 pts7th EVE · 4 pts8th LEE · 4 pts GW 3 3rd HUL · 7 pts5th BRE · 5 pts7th NEW · 5 pts8th EVE · 5 pts9th LEE · 5 pts GW 4 3rd LEE · 8 pts4th HUL · 8 pts7th BRE · 6 pts9th EVE · 6 pts12th NEW · 5 pts GW 5 4th BRE · 9 pts5th LEE · 9 pts7th EVE · 9 pts8th HUL · 8 pts9th NEW · 8 pts GW 6 4th BRE · 10 pts5th EVE · 10 pts7th LEE · 9 pts8th HUL · 9 pts11th NEW · 8 pts GW 7 6th BRE · 10 pts7th LEE · 10 pts8th EVE · 10 pts9th HUL · 9 pts11th NEW · 8 pts GW 8 · projected 6th BRE · 13 pts7th NEW · 11 pts8th LEE · 10 pts10th EVE · 10 pts11th HUL · 9 pts GW 9 · projected 5th BRE · 16 pts7th NEW · 14 pts8th HUL · 12 pts10th LEE · 10 pts12th EVE · 10 pts GW 10 · projected 6th BRE · 16 pts7th NEW · 14 pts8th LEE · 13 pts10th EVE · 13 pts11th HUL · 12 pts GW 11 · projected 6th BRE · 19 pts9th NEW · 14 pts10th LEE · 13 pts11th EVE · 13 pts13th HUL · 12 pts GW 12 · projected 6th BRE · 19 pts9th LEE · 16 pts11th NEW · 14 pts12th EVE · 13 pts14th HUL · 12 pts GW 13 · projected 8th BRE · 19 pts10th LEE · 16 pts12th NEW · 14 pts13th EVE · 13 pts15th HUL · 12 pts GW 14 · projected 9th BRE · 19 pts10th LEE · 19 pts11th NEW · 17 pts12th EVE · 16 pts15th HUL · 12 pts GW 15 · projected 9th NEW · 20 pts10th BRE · 19 pts11th LEE · 19 pts13th EVE · 16 pts15th HUL · 15 pts GW 16 · projected 9th BRE · 22 pts10th LEE · 22 pts11th NEW · 20 pts14th EVE · 16 pts15th HUL · 15 pts GW 17 · projected 9th BRE · 25 pts10th LEE · 22 pts11th NEW · 20 pts12th EVE · 19 pts15th HUL · 15 pts GW 18 · projected 9th BRE · 28 pts10th LEE · 25 pts11th NEW · 23 pts12th EVE · 19 pts15th HUL · 15 pts GW 19 · projected 7th BRE · 31 pts10th LEE · 28 pts11th NEW · 23 pts13th EVE · 19 pts16th HUL · 15 pts GW 20 · projected 8th BRE · 31 pts10th LEE · 28 pts11th NEW · 23 pts12th EVE · 22 pts16th HUL · 15 pts GW 21 · projected 9th BRE · 31 pts10th LEE · 28 pts11th NEW · 26 pts12th EVE · 25 pts16th HUL · 15 pts GW 22 · projected 9th BRE · 31 pts10th LEE · 28 pts11th EVE · 28 pts12th NEW · 26 pts16th HUL · 15 pts GW 23 · projected 9th BRE · 31 pts10th LEE · 31 pts11th EVE · 28 pts12th NEW · 26 pts18th HUL · 15 pts GW 24 · projected 9th BRE · 31 pts10th LEE · 31 pts11th EVE · 31 pts12th NEW · 26 pts18th HUL · 15 pts GW 25 · projected 9th BRE · 34 pts10th EVE · 34 pts11th LEE · 31 pts12th NEW · 29 pts18th HUL · 15 pts GW 26 · projected 9th BRE · 37 pts10th EVE · 37 pts11th LEE · 31 pts12th NEW · 29 pts18th HUL · 15 pts GW 27 · projected 9th EVE · 40 pts10th BRE · 37 pts11th NEW · 32 pts12th LEE · 31 pts18th HUL · 15 pts GW 28 · projected 9th BRE · 40 pts10th EVE · 40 pts11th LEE · 34 pts12th NEW · 32 pts18th HUL · 15 pts GW 29 · projected 9th BRE · 43 pts10th EVE · 40 pts11th LEE · 34 pts12th NEW · 32 pts18th HUL · 15 pts GW 30 · projected 9th BRE · 43 pts10th EVE · 43 pts11th NEW · 35 pts12th LEE · 34 pts18th HUL · 15 pts GW 31 · projected 9th BRE · 46 pts10th EVE · 46 pts11th LEE · 37 pts12th NEW · 35 pts18th HUL · 15 pts GW 32 · projected 9th BRE · 49 pts10th EVE · 46 pts11th NEW · 38 pts12th LEE · 37 pts18th HUL · 18 pts GW 33 · projected 9th BRE · 52 pts10th EVE · 46 pts11th NEW · 41 pts12th LEE · 37 pts18th HUL · 18 pts GW 34 · projected 9th BRE · 52 pts10th EVE · 46 pts11th NEW · 44 pts12th LEE · 40 pts18th HUL · 18 pts GW 35 · projected 9th BRE · 55 pts10th EVE · 49 pts11th NEW · 47 pts12th LEE · 40 pts18th HUL · 18 pts GW 36 · projected 9th BRE · 55 pts10th EVE · 49 pts11th NEW · 47 pts13th LEE · 40 pts18th HUL · 18 pts GW 37 · projected 9th BRE · 58 pts10th NEW · 50 pts11th EVE · 49 pts13th LEE · 43 pts18th HUL · 18 pts GW 38 · projected 9th BRE · 58 pts10th NEW · 53 pts11th EVE · 52 pts13th LEE · 43 pts18th HUL · 18 pts
Leeds United Hull City derbyEverton mid-tableNewcastle United mid-tableBrentford mid-table
Leeds United solid to the last match played, dashed for the forecast. Rivals are dotted throughout, with a dot on their last match played. The white lines are the ones a season is played against – the title, the Champions League places, Europe, and the drop.

Real results so far plus a called outcome for every match still to play, recalculated as results come in. Drawn beside them are the clubs they are actually racing: their usual rivals, and whoever this season has put them in the same fight with. Point at any gameweek for every club's position and points.

Against pre-season expectations

They are 9 places ahead of where we projected them by now.

1st 10th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 · 5 places ahead Actual 9thProjected 14th GW 2 · 3 places ahead Actual 8thProjected 11th GW 3 · 5 places ahead Actual 9thProjected 14th GW 4 · 13 places ahead Actual 3rdProjected 16th GW 5 · 8 places ahead Actual 5thProjected 13th GW 6 · 8 places ahead Actual 7thProjected 15th GW 7 · 9 places ahead Actual 7thProjected 16th GW 8 Projected 17th GW 9 Projected 18th GW 10 Projected 17th GW 11 Projected 17th GW 12 Projected 17th GW 13 Projected 18th GW 14 Projected 16th GW 15 Projected 17th GW 16 Projected 17th GW 17 Projected 17th GW 18 Projected 16th GW 19 Projected 17th GW 20 Projected 17th GW 21 Projected 17th GW 22 Projected 17th GW 23 Projected 17th GW 24 Projected 17th GW 25 Projected 17th GW 26 Projected 17th GW 27 Projected 17th GW 28 Projected 16th GW 29 Projected 16th GW 30 Projected 16th GW 31 Projected 16th GW 32 Projected 16th GW 33 Projected 16th GW 34 Projected 15th GW 35 Projected 15th GW 36 Projected 17th GW 37 Projected 15th GW 38 Projected 15th

Where Leeds United actually are, week by week, against where the pre-season projection had them – shaded green while they run ahead of it, red while they run behind. Point at any gameweek for both figures.

Next up

Leeds United 1–1 Manchester United

Sunday 18th October 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

whichteamwillwin.com
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Manchester United win against the odds

1–1Full time

Leeds United crest
◀ Leeds United win Man United win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Manchester United crest

Confidence: Slight

LEE MUN D-D-W-D-L W-D-L-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-D-W-D D-W-L-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.20 0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.16 1.54 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Average 1518 Strong 1601 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.38 1.80 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 3.9 5.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 75% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.03 2.72 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven LEE MUN D-D-W-D-L W-D-L-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-D-W-D D-W-L-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.20 0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.16 1.54 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Average 1518 Strong 1601 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.38 1.80 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 3.9 5.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 75% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.03 2.72 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven

The key stat: Elo performance. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. It goes to Manchester United: Strong to Average. When this gap appears, the side carrying the stronger record tends to win, in around 72% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callManchester United to win: 46% against 28%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and what this eleven creates – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For Manchester UnitedShots on target 5.4 v 3.9 (clear); XI attacking output 2.72 v 2.03 (useful); Attack 1.80 v 1.38 (useful).
  • For Leeds UnitedHome and away form W-W-D-W-D v D-W-L-D-D (clear); GK save rate 75% v 69% (clear); Goal difference at this venue 1.20 v 0.20 (useful).
  • FormLeeds United D-D-W-D-L, Manchester United W-D-L-D-D.
  • Worth knowingThis call goes against both the ratings and the bookmakers.
Leeds United 3-4-2-1 confirmedManchester United 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Leeds United 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

Manchester United 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 J. Trafford 5 T. Muharemović 30 N. Elvedi 24 J. Justin 3 Gudmundsson 22 A. Tanaka 4 E. Ampadu 2 J. Bogle 19 N. Okafor 18 A. Stach 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
1 S. Lammens 2 Diogo Dalot 6 L. Martínez 5 H. Maguire 15 L. Yoro 20 C. Baleba 17 Andrey Santos 16 A. Diallo 18 Y. Tielemans 8 Bruno Fernandes 19 B. Mbeumo
  1. J. Trafford
  2. T. Muharemović
  3. N. Elvedi
  4. J. Justin
  5. G. Gudmundsson
  6. A. Tanaka
  7. E. Ampadu
  8. J. Bogle
  9. N. Okafor
  10. A. Stach
  11. D. Calvert-Lewin
  1. S. Lammens
  2. Diogo Dalot
  3. L. Martínez
  4. H. Maguire
  5. L. Yoro
  6. C. Baleba
  7. Andrey Santos
  8. A. Diallo
  9. Y. Tielemans
  10. Bruno Fernandes
  11. B. Mbeumo

Substitutes B. Aaronson, J. Bahoya, M. Bard, J. Bijol, I. Gruev, S. Longstaff, L. Nmecha, H. Wilson, M. Zetterer

Substitutes H. Amass, K. Darlow, S. Lacey, N. Mazraoui, M. Mount, M. Rashford, Matheus Cunha, J. Zirkzee, M. de Ligt

Our call: 28% LEE · 26% draw · 46% MUN  ·  bookmakers: 40% / 26% / 33%  ·  expected goals 1.16–1.54

Last updated 18 Oct at 13:16

Sunderland vs. Leeds United

Sunday 25th October 2026 (Kick Off: 16:30) · Gameweek 8

whichteamwillwin.com

Sunderland win

Sunderland crest
◀ Sunderland win Leeds United win ▶ 27% draw chance bookmakers
Leeds United crest

Knife-edge – Sunderland shade it

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SUN LEE D-L-L-L-L D-W-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches -1.60 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-W-L-L D-L-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 52% 48% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.41 1.28 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.65 1.33 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 59% 74% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.6 3.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game Below average 1470 Average 1518 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.63 1.56 Defence Conceded per game 2.33 2.08 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven SUN LEE D-L-L-L-L D-W-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches -1.60 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-W-L-L D-L-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 52% 48% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.41 1.28 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.65 1.33 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 59% 74% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.6 3.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game Below average 1470 Average 1518 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.63 1.56 Defence Conceded per game 2.33 2.08 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven

The key stat: XI defensive record. This is the widest gap between them. Leeds United come out on top, 1.33 against 1.65. In matches like this, whoever fielded the more solid defence usually wins – about 69% of the time. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

Against the call – Leeds United lead on it, and Sunderland still shade the call – on home advantage, recent shots on target and what this eleven creates.

  • The callKnife-edge – Sunderland 40%, draw 27%, Leeds United 34%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Sunderland comes from home advantage, recent shots on target and what this eleven creates.
  • For SunderlandShots on target 4.6 v 3.4 (useful); Possession 52% v 48% (slight); Home and away form D-W-W-L-L v D-L-W-D-L (slight).
  • For Leeds UnitedGK save rate 74% v 59% (decisive); Goal difference 0.40 v -1.60 (decisive); XI defensive record 1.33 v 1.65 (clear).
  • FormSunderland D-L-L-L-L, Leeds United D-W-D-L-D.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Sunderland 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable · 2 doubtfulLeeds United 3-4-2-1 expected · 7 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Sunderland 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Leeds United 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

22 R. Roefs 20 N. Mukiele 17 Reinildo 12 T. Meunier 32 T. Hume 6 Methalie 28 E.Le Fée 34 G. Xhaka 27 N. Sadiki 10 N.Angulo 9 B. Brobbey
1 J. Trafford 5 T. Muharemović 3 G. Gudmundsson 24 J. Justin 30 N. Elvedi 2 J. Bogle 18 A. Stach 4 E. Ampadu 22 Tanaka 19 N. Okafor 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
  1. R. Roefs98%
  2. N. Mukiele98%
  3. Reinildo78%
  4. T. Meunier53%
  5. T. Hume43%
  6. Methalie25%
  7. E.Le Fée98%
  8. G. Xhaka98%
  9. N. Sadiki96%
  10. N.Angulo71%
  11. B. Brobbey60%
  1. J. Trafford98%
  2. T. Muharemović98%
  3. G. Gudmundsson98%
  4. J. Justin98%
  5. N. Elvedi98%
  6. J. Bogle94%
  7. A. Stach98%
  8. E. Ampadu98%
  9. Tanaka92%
  10. N. Okafor91%
  11. D. Calvert-Lewin97%

Likely subs M. Fofana, H. Diarra, C. Talbi, J. Ahoka, J.Angulo, M. Ellborg, L. O'Nien

Likely subs H. Wilson, L. Nmecha, B. Aaronson, J. Bijol, I. Gruev, J. Bahoya, S. Longstaff

Doubts K. Danso suspended, T. Meunier doubtful, D. Ballard injured, W. Isidor doubtful, L. Hjelde unavailable, J. Seelt unavailable, A. Patterson unavailable, S. Adingra unavailable

Doubts D. James doubtful, W. Gnonto unavailable, J. Harrison unavailable, J. Piroe unavailable, L. Perri unavailable, S. Bornauw unavailable, Mateo Joseph injured, J. Rodon injured

Our call: 40% SUN · 27% draw · 34% LEE  ·  bookmakers: 34% / 29% / 38%  ·  expected goals 1.41–1.28

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Bournemouth vs. Leeds United

Saturday 31st October 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 9

whichteamwillwin.com

Bournemouth win

Bournemouth crest
◀ Bournemouth win Leeds United win ▶ 24% draw chance bookmakers
Leeds United crest

Confidence: Fair

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BOU LEE D-D-L-L-W D-W-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-D-L-W D-L-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.20 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.78 0.96 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.92 2.08 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 62% 74% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.12 1.56 Defence Conceded per game 4.6 3.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.19 1.33 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Strong 1571 Average 1518 Elo performance 1500 is average BOU LEE D-D-L-L-W D-W-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-D-L-W D-L-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.20 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.78 0.96 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.92 2.08 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 62% 74% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.12 1.56 Defence Conceded per game 4.6 3.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.19 1.33 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Strong 1571 Average 1518 Elo performance 1500 is average

The key stat: XI attacking output. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. It goes to Bournemouth: 2.92 to 2.08. When this gap appears, whoever fielded the greater attacking threat tends to win, in around 70% of cases. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callBournemouth to win: 56% against 20%, with the draw at 24%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and recent shots on target – the strongest pull the other way is a cup tie in the other side's legs.
  • For BournemouthXI attacking output 2.92 v 2.08 (clear); Goals 1.78 v 0.96 (useful); Defence 1.12 v 1.56 (useful).
  • For Leeds UnitedGK save rate 74% v 62% (decisive); Goal difference 0.40 v -0.60 (useful).
  • FormBournemouth D-D-L-L-W, Leeds United D-W-D-L-D.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1 expected · 6 unavailableLeeds United 3-4-2-1 expected · 7 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Leeds United 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

1 Đ. Petrović 5 J. Hill 3 A. Truffert 14 A. Silva 15 A. Smith 37 Rayan 12 T. Adams 16 M. Tavernier 10 R. Christie 19 J. Kluivert 9 Evanilson
1 J. Trafford 5 T. Muharemović 3 G. Gudmundsson 24 J. Justin 30 N. Elvedi 2 J. Bogle 18 A. Stach 4 E. Ampadu 22 Tanaka 19 N. Okafor 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
  1. Đ. Petrović98%
  2. J. Hill98%
  3. A. Truffert98%
  4. A. Silva98%
  5. A. Smith97%
  6. Rayan98%
  7. T. Adams97%
  8. M. Tavernier95%
  9. R. Christie59%
  10. J. Kluivert39%
  11. Evanilson98%
  1. J. Trafford98%
  2. T. Muharemović98%
  3. G. Gudmundsson98%
  4. J. Justin98%
  5. N. Elvedi98%
  6. J. Bogle94%
  7. A. Stach98%
  8. E. Ampadu98%
  9. Tanaka92%
  10. N. Okafor91%
  11. D. Calvert-Lewin97%

Likely subs M. Di Gregorio, Á. Rodríguez, D. Brooks, B. Diakité, B. Gannon-Doak, A. Adli, Sanchez

Likely subs H. Wilson, L. Nmecha, B. Aaronson, J. Bijol, I. Gruev, J. Bahoya, S. Longstaff

Doubts A. Scott injured, W. Dennis unavailable, Kroupi.Jr injured, E. Ünal unavailable, Milosavljević injured, J.Araujo injured

Doubts D. James doubtful, W. Gnonto unavailable, J. Harrison unavailable, J. Piroe unavailable, L. Perri unavailable, S. Bornauw unavailable, Mateo Joseph injured, J. Rodon injured

Our call: 56% BOU · 24% draw · 20% LEE  ·  bookmakers: 42% / 27% / 31%  ·  expected goals 1.78–0.96

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Leeds United vs. Tottenham Hotspur

Saturday 7th November 2026 (Kick Off: 12:30) · Gameweek 10

whichteamwillwin.com

Leeds United win

Leeds United crest
◀ Leeds United win Tottenham win ▶ 27% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Tottenham Hotspur crest

Confidence: Slight

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LEE TOT D-W-D-L-D L-D-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-W-D-D W-L-L-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 45% 55% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.48 1.04 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.33 1.27 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Average 1518 Below average 1454 Elo performance 1500 is average 74% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.56 1.13 Defence Conceded per game 1.31 1.19 Attack Goals and expected goals per game LEE TOT D-W-D-L-D L-D-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-W-D-D W-L-L-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 45% 55% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.48 1.04 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.33 1.27 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Average 1518 Below average 1454 Elo performance 1500 is average 74% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.56 1.13 Defence Conceded per game 1.31 1.19 Attack Goals and expected goals per game

The key stat: XI defensive record. This is the widest gap between them. It goes to Tottenham Hotspur: 1.27 to 1.33. In matches like this, whoever fielded the more solid defence usually wins – about 74% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

Against the call – it favours Tottenham Hotspur; Leeds United are tipped because they lead on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and changes in the other camp.

  • The callLeeds United to win: 47% against 26%, with the draw at 27%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and changes in the other camp – the strongest pull the other way is the defence in front of them.
  • For Leeds UnitedGK save rate 74% v 65% (decisive); Goal difference at this venue 0.80 v -0.60 (clear); Home and away form W-D-W-D-D v W-L-L-D-D (useful).
  • For Tottenham HotspurPossession 55% v 45% (clear); Defence 1.13 v 1.56 (useful); XI defensive record 1.27 v 1.33 (marginal).
  • FormLeeds United D-W-D-L-D, Tottenham Hotspur L-D-D-L-D.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Leeds United 3-4-2-1 expected · 7 unavailable · 1 doubtfulTottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1 expected · 16 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Leeds United 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 J. Trafford 5 T. Muharemović 3 G. Gudmundsson 24 J. Justin 30 N. Elvedi 2 J. Bogle 18 A. Stach 4 E. Ampadu 22 Tanaka 19 N. Okafor 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
31 Kinsky 6 J. Van Hecke 37 Van de Ven 3 A. Robertson 16 S. Tonali 14 A. Gray 18 M. Fernandes 11 M. Tel 8 C. Gallagher 22 O. Marmoush 19 Solanke
  1. J. Trafford98%
  2. T. Muharemović98%
  3. G. Gudmundsson98%
  4. J. Justin98%
  5. N. Elvedi98%
  6. J. Bogle94%
  7. A. Stach98%
  8. E. Ampadu98%
  9. Tanaka92%
  10. N. Okafor91%
  11. D. Calvert-Lewin97%
  1. Kinsky98%
  2. J. Van Hecke98%
  3. M. Van de Ven81%
  4. A. Robertson61%
  5. S. Tonali98%
  6. A. Gray64%
  7. M. Fernandes54%
  8. M. Tel39%
  9. C. Gallagher38%
  10. O. Marmoush80%
  11. Solanke57%

Likely subs H. Wilson, L. Nmecha, B. Aaronson, J. Bijol, I. Gruev, J. Bahoya, S. Longstaff

Likely subs D. Udogie, M. Kudus, J. Maddison, Tosin, M. Dubravka, B. Davies, Senesi

Doubts D. James doubtful, W. Gnonto unavailable, J. Harrison unavailable, J. Piroe unavailable, L. Perri unavailable, S. Bornauw unavailable, Mateo Joseph injured, J. Rodon injured

Doubts R. Bentancur suspended, Sávio injured, Pedro Porro injured, A. Phillips unavailable, L. Bergvall injured, M. Mudryk injured, M. Moore unavailable, D. Kulusevski doubtful

Our call: 47% LEE · 27% draw · 26% TOT  ·  expected goals 1.48–1.04

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Chelsea vs. Leeds United

Saturday 21st November 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 11

whichteamwillwin.com

Chelsea win

Chelsea crest
◀ Chelsea win Leeds United win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Leeds United crest

Confidence: Fair

MoreLess
CHE LEE L-D-L-W-W D-W-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-W-D-W D-L-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 53% 47% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.63 1.01 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.43 1.33 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Strong 1580 Average 1518 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.43 1.56 Defence Conceded per game 4.7 3.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 71% 74% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved CHE LEE L-D-L-W-W D-W-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-W-D-W D-L-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 53% 47% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.63 1.01 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.43 1.33 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Strong 1580 Average 1518 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.43 1.56 Defence Conceded per game 4.7 3.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 71% 74% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved

The key stat: XI defensive record. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. It goes to Leeds United: 1.33 to 1.43. When this gap appears, whoever fielded the more solid defence tends to win, in around 74% of cases. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

Against the call – it favours Leeds United; Chelsea are tipped because they lead on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and recent shots on target.

  • The callChelsea to win: 51% against 23%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and recent shots on target.
  • For ChelseaHome and away form L-W-W-D-W v D-L-W-D-L (clear); Goal difference at this venue 0.80 v -0.60 (clear); Shots on target 4.7 v 3.4 (useful).
  • For Leeds UnitedGK save rate 74% v 71% (slight); XI defensive record 1.33 v 1.43 (slight).
  • FormChelsea L-D-L-W-W, Leeds United D-W-D-L-D.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Chelsea 3-4-2-1 expected · 11 unavailable · 2 doubtfulLeeds United 3-4-2-1 expected · 7 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Chelsea 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

Leeds United 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

39 M. Penders 5 M. Lacroix 6 L. Colwill 34 J. Acheampong 3 W. Fofana 10 C. Palmer 17 M. Rogers 7 P. Neto 14 J. Henderson 25 Caicedo 9 João Pedro
1 J. Trafford 5 T. Muharemović 3 G. Gudmundsson 24 J. Justin 30 N. Elvedi 2 J. Bogle 18 A. Stach 4 E. Ampadu 22 Tanaka 19 N. Okafor 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
  1. M. Penders25%
  2. M. Lacroix80%
  3. L. Colwill80%
  4. J. Acheampong62%
  5. W. Fofana58%
  6. C. Palmer98%
  7. M. Rogers98%
  8. P. Neto98%
  9. J. Henderson60%
  10. Caicedo38%
  11. João Pedro78%
  1. J. Trafford98%
  2. T. Muharemović98%
  3. G. Gudmundsson98%
  4. J. Justin98%
  5. N. Elvedi98%
  6. J. Bogle94%
  7. A. Stach98%
  8. E. Ampadu98%
  9. Tanaka92%
  10. N. Okafor91%
  11. D. Calvert-Lewin97%

Likely subs J. Hato, R. Lavia, Chavarria, Estêvão, D. Welbeck, V. Barco, M. Palestra

Likely subs H. Wilson, L. Nmecha, B. Aaronson, J. Bijol, I. Gruev, J. Bahoya, S. Longstaff

Doubts Martinez injured, Chavarria doubtful, R. James injured, M. Gusto doubtful, E. Emegha injured, J. Gittens injured, T. Chalobah unavailable, F. Jörgensen unavailable

Doubts D. James doubtful, W. Gnonto unavailable, J. Harrison unavailable, J. Piroe unavailable, L. Perri unavailable, S. Bornauw unavailable, Mateo Joseph injured, J. Rodon injured

Our call: 51% CHE · 25% draw · 23% LEE  ·  expected goals 1.63–1.01

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

The whole season

All 38 of Leeds United's league matches, what we said would happen, and – where it has been played – what actually did. We have called 2 of 3 of their decided matches so far; 4 were draws, which nobody scores. Rows marked projected are today's model looking ahead: they move every time the season is re-projected, so they are not frozen and are never graded. Everything else is the call we published before kick-off.

GWKick-offOpponentWinDrawLoseOur callResultCalled it?
1 Sat 22 Aug, 15:00 Nottingham Forest (A) 29% 26% 45% LoseConfidence: Slight 1–0
2 Sun 30 Aug, 14:00 Brentford (H) 39% 27% 34% WinConfidence: Knife-edge 1–1
3 Sat 5 Sept, 15:00 Brighton & Hove Albion (A) 23% 24% 52% LoseConfidence: Fair 1–1
4 Mon 14 Sept, 20:00 Newcastle United (H) 41% 27% 32% WinConfidence: Knife-edge 4–1
5 Sun 20 Sept, 14:00 Crystal Palace (H) 50% 25% 25% WinConfidence: Fair 0–0
6 Sat 10 Oct, 12:30 Arsenal (A) 11% 19% 70% LoseConfidence: Very strong 1–2
7 Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 Manchester United (H) 28% 26% 46% LoseConfidence: Slight 1–1
8 Sun 25 Oct, 16:30 Sunderland (A) 34% 27% 40% LoseConfidence: Knife-edge –
9 Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Bournemouth (A) 20% 24% 56% LoseConfidence: Fair –
10 Sat 7 Nov, 12:30 Tottenham Hotspur (H) 47% 27% 26% WinConfidence: Slight –
11 Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 Chelsea (A) 23% 25% 51% LoseConfidence: Fair –
12 Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 Coventry City (H) 50% 26% 24% WinProjected: Fair –
13 Wed 2 Dec, 20:00 Manchester City (A) 12% 19% 69% LoseProjected: Very strong –
14 Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 Ipswich Town (H) 54% 25% 21% WinProjected: Fair –
15 Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 Liverpool (A) 17% 23% 60% LoseProjected: Strong –
16 Sat 19 Dec, 15:00 Fulham (H) 39% 28% 33% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
17 Sat 26 Dec, 12:30 Aston Villa (A) 22% 25% 53% LoseProjected: Fair –
18 Tue 29 Dec, 19:30 Hull City (A) 40% 27% 33% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
19 Fri 1 Jan, 20:00 Everton (H) 38% 27% 35% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
20 Wed 6 Jan, 20:15 Manchester City (H) 20% 23% 57% LoseProjected: Strong –
21 Sat 16 Jan, 15:00 Tottenham Hotspur (A) 35% 28% 37% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
22 Sat 23 Jan, 15:00 Chelsea (H) 34% 27% 39% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
23 Sat 30 Jan, 15:00 Coventry City (A) 37% 27% 35% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
24 Sat 6 Feb, 15:00 Bournemouth (H) 32% 27% 41% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
25 Wed 10 Feb, 20:00 Everton (A) 27% 26% 47% LoseProjected: Slight –
26 Sat 20 Feb, 15:00 Aston Villa (H) 32% 28% 40% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
27 Sat 27 Feb, 15:00 Fulham (A) 28% 27% 45% LoseProjected: Slight –
28 Wed 3 Mar, 20:00 Hull City (H) 52% 25% 22% WinProjected: Fair –
29 Sat 13 Mar, 15:00 Brighton & Hove Albion (H) 31% 27% 42% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
30 Sat 20 Mar, 15:00 Newcastle United (A) 27% 26% 47% LoseProjected: Slight –
31 Sat 10 Apr, 15:00 Nottingham Forest (H) 41% 27% 32% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
32 Sat 17 Apr, 15:00 Brentford (A) 27% 26% 47% LoseProjected: Slight –
33 Sat 24 Apr, 15:00 Liverpool (H) 26% 26% 47% LoseProjected: Slight –
34 Sat 1 May, 15:00 Ipswich Town (A) 42% 27% 32% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
35 Sat 8 May, 15:00 Arsenal (H) 17% 23% 59% LoseProjected: Strong –
36 Sat 15 May, 15:00 Manchester United (A) 20% 23% 57% LoseProjected: Strong –
37 Sun 23 May, 15:00 Sunderland (H) 45% 26% 29% WinProjected: Slight –
38 Sun 30 May, 16:00 Crystal Palace (A) 34% 27% 39% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –

Called the winner Called it wrong Drawn – no winner to call