Which Team Will Win?

Leeds United 1–1 Manchester United

Sunday 18th October 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

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Manchester United win against the odds

1–1Full time

Leeds United crest
◀ Leeds United win Man United win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Manchester United crest

Confidence: Slight

LEE MUN D-D-W-D-L W-D-L-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-D-W-D D-W-L-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.20 0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.16 1.54 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Average 1518 Strong 1601 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.38 1.80 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 3.9 5.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 75% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.03 2.72 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven LEE MUN D-D-W-D-L W-D-L-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-D-W-D D-W-L-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.20 0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.16 1.54 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Average 1518 Strong 1601 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.38 1.80 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 3.9 5.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 75% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.03 2.72 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven

The key stat: Elo performance. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. It goes to Manchester United: Strong to Average. When this gap appears, the side carrying the stronger record tends to win, in around 72% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callManchester United to win: 46% against 28%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and what this eleven creates – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For Manchester UnitedShots on target 5.4 v 3.9 (clear); XI attacking output 2.72 v 2.03 (useful); Attack 1.80 v 1.38 (useful).
  • For Leeds UnitedHome and away form W-W-D-W-D v D-W-L-D-D (clear); GK save rate 75% v 69% (clear); Goal difference at this venue 1.20 v 0.20 (useful).
  • FormLeeds United D-D-W-D-L, Manchester United W-D-L-D-D.
  • Worth knowingThis call goes against both the ratings and the bookmakers.
Leeds United 3-4-2-1 confirmedManchester United 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Leeds United 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

Manchester United 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 J. Trafford 5 T. Muharemović 30 N. Elvedi 24 J. Justin 3 Gudmundsson 22 A. Tanaka 4 E. Ampadu 2 J. Bogle 19 N. Okafor 18 A. Stach 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
1 S. Lammens 2 Diogo Dalot 6 L. Martínez 5 H. Maguire 15 L. Yoro 20 C. Baleba 17 Andrey Santos 16 A. Diallo 18 Y. Tielemans 8 Bruno Fernandes 19 B. Mbeumo
  1. J. Trafford
  2. T. Muharemović
  3. N. Elvedi
  4. J. Justin
  5. G. Gudmundsson
  6. A. Tanaka
  7. E. Ampadu
  8. J. Bogle
  9. N. Okafor
  10. A. Stach
  11. D. Calvert-Lewin
  1. S. Lammens
  2. Diogo Dalot
  3. L. Martínez
  4. H. Maguire
  5. L. Yoro
  6. C. Baleba
  7. Andrey Santos
  8. A. Diallo
  9. Y. Tielemans
  10. Bruno Fernandes
  11. B. Mbeumo

Substitutes B. Aaronson, J. Bahoya, M. Bard, J. Bijol, I. Gruev, S. Longstaff, L. Nmecha, H. Wilson, M. Zetterer

Substitutes H. Amass, K. Darlow, S. Lacey, N. Mazraoui, M. Mount, M. Rashford, Matheus Cunha, J. Zirkzee, M. de Ligt

Our call: 28% LEE · 26% draw · 46% MUN  ·  bookmakers: 40% / 26% / 33%  ·  expected goals 1.16–1.54

Last updated 18 Oct at 13:16

What separates them

Reason◂ Leeds UnitedMan United ▸Goals
Long-run strength 0.34
Home advantage 0.27
Shots on target 0.16
XI attacking output 0.06
Settled eleven 0.04
Defence 0.03
Everything else 0.09
Man United ahead by 0.38

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Man United come out 0.38 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Man United goals Leeds United goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Leeds United 0–0 Man United: 7% Leeds United 0–1 Man United: 10% Leeds United 0–2 Man United: 8% Leeds United 0–3 Man United: 4% Leeds United 0–4 Man United: 2% Leeds United 0–5 Man United: <1% Leeds United 0–6 Man United: <1% Leeds United 1–0 Man United: 7% Leeds United 1–1 Man United: 12% Leeds United 1–2 Man United: 9% Leeds United 1–3 Man United: 5% Leeds United 1–4 Man United: 2% Leeds United 1–5 Man United: <1% Leeds United 1–6 Man United: <1% Leeds United 2–0 Man United: 5% Leeds United 2–1 Man United: 7% Leeds United 2–2 Man United: 5% Leeds United 2–3 Man United: 3% Leeds United 2–4 Man United: 1% Leeds United 2–5 Man United: <1% Leeds United 2–6 Man United: <1% Leeds United 3–0 Man United: 2% Leeds United 3–1 Man United: 3% Leeds United 3–2 Man United: 2% Leeds United 3–3 Man United: 1% Leeds United 3–4 Man United: <1% Leeds United 3–5 Man United: <1% Leeds United 4–0 Man United: <1% Leeds United 4–1 Man United: <1% Leeds United 4–2 Man United: <1% Leeds United 4–3 Man United: <1% Leeds United 4–4 Man United: <1% Leeds United 5–0 Man United: <1% Leeds United 5–1 Man United: <1% Leeds United 5–2 Man United: <1% Leeds United 5–3 Man United: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Leeds United win, above it Man United do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →