Which Team Will Win?

Aston Villa

Where we have Aston Villa finishing, the matches they have next, and every call we have made about them this season – frozen at kick-off, right or wrong.

Projected league position, week by week

If the season plays out as the model expects, Aston Villa finish 8th on 71 points.

1st 4th 10th 17th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 5th HUL · 3 pts11th NEW · 1 pts17th MUN · 0 pts18th COV · 0 pts20th AVL · 0 pts GW 2 3rd HUL · 6 pts6th NEW · 4 pts10th MUN · 3 pts17th COV · 0 pts19th AVL · 0 pts GW 3 3rd HUL · 7 pts7th NEW · 5 pts11th MUN · 4 pts17th AVL · 1 pts20th COV · 0 pts GW 4 4th HUL · 8 pts12th NEW · 5 pts13th MUN · 4 pts19th AVL · 1 pts20th COV · 0 pts GW 5 8th HUL · 8 pts9th NEW · 8 pts12th MUN · 5 pts16th AVL · 4 pts18th COV · 3 pts GW 6 8th HUL · 9 pts11th NEW · 8 pts13th MUN · 6 pts14th COV · 6 pts16th AVL · 5 pts GW 7 9th HUL · 9 pts11th NEW · 8 pts12th AVL · 8 pts13th MUN · 7 pts17th COV · 6 pts GW 8 · projected 7th NEW · 11 pts9th MUN · 10 pts11th HUL · 9 pts15th AVL · 8 pts19th COV · 6 pts GW 9 · projected 7th NEW · 14 pts8th HUL · 12 pts9th AVL · 11 pts11th MUN · 10 pts20th COV · 6 pts GW 10 · projected 7th NEW · 14 pts9th MUN · 13 pts11th HUL · 12 pts14th AVL · 11 pts20th COV · 6 pts GW 11 · projected 8th AVL · 14 pts9th NEW · 14 pts12th MUN · 13 pts13th HUL · 12 pts18th COV · 9 pts GW 12 · projected 8th AVL · 17 pts10th MUN · 16 pts11th NEW · 14 pts14th HUL · 12 pts19th COV · 9 pts GW 13 · projected 7th AVL · 20 pts9th MUN · 19 pts12th NEW · 14 pts15th HUL · 12 pts17th COV · 12 pts GW 14 · projected 7th AVL · 23 pts8th MUN · 22 pts11th NEW · 17 pts15th HUL · 12 pts17th COV · 12 pts GW 15 · projected 6th AVL · 26 pts7th MUN · 25 pts9th NEW · 20 pts15th HUL · 15 pts17th COV · 12 pts GW 16 · projected 7th AVL · 26 pts8th MUN · 25 pts11th NEW · 20 pts15th HUL · 15 pts18th COV · 12 pts GW 17 · projected 7th AVL · 29 pts8th MUN · 28 pts11th NEW · 20 pts15th HUL · 15 pts18th COV · 12 pts GW 18 · projected 7th MUN · 31 pts8th AVL · 29 pts11th NEW · 23 pts15th HUL · 15 pts18th COV · 12 pts GW 19 · projected 8th MUN · 31 pts9th AVL · 29 pts11th NEW · 23 pts16th HUL · 15 pts18th COV · 12 pts GW 20 · projected 7th MUN · 34 pts9th AVL · 29 pts11th NEW · 23 pts16th HUL · 15 pts17th COV · 12 pts GW 21 · projected 7th MUN · 34 pts8th AVL · 32 pts11th NEW · 26 pts16th HUL · 15 pts18th COV · 12 pts GW 22 · projected 7th MUN · 37 pts8th AVL · 35 pts12th NEW · 26 pts16th HUL · 15 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 23 · projected 7th MUN · 40 pts8th AVL · 38 pts12th NEW · 26 pts18th HUL · 15 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 24 · projected 7th MUN · 43 pts8th AVL · 41 pts12th NEW · 26 pts18th HUL · 15 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 25 · projected 7th MUN · 46 pts8th AVL · 44 pts12th NEW · 29 pts18th HUL · 15 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 26 · projected 7th MUN · 49 pts8th AVL · 47 pts12th NEW · 29 pts18th HUL · 15 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 27 · projected 7th AVL · 50 pts8th MUN · 49 pts11th NEW · 32 pts18th HUL · 15 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 28 · projected 7th MUN · 52 pts8th AVL · 50 pts12th NEW · 32 pts18th HUL · 15 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 29 · projected 7th MUN · 55 pts8th AVL · 53 pts12th NEW · 32 pts18th HUL · 15 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 30 · projected 7th AVL · 56 pts8th MUN · 55 pts11th NEW · 35 pts18th HUL · 15 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 31 · projected 7th AVL · 59 pts8th MUN · 58 pts12th NEW · 35 pts18th HUL · 15 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 32 · projected 7th MUN · 61 pts8th AVL · 59 pts11th NEW · 38 pts18th HUL · 18 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 33 · projected 7th MUN · 64 pts8th AVL · 62 pts11th NEW · 41 pts18th HUL · 18 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 34 · projected 7th MUN · 67 pts8th AVL · 65 pts11th NEW · 44 pts18th HUL · 18 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 35 · projected 7th MUN · 67 pts8th AVL · 65 pts11th NEW · 47 pts18th HUL · 18 pts20th COV · 12 pts GW 36 · projected 7th MUN · 70 pts8th AVL · 68 pts11th NEW · 47 pts18th HUL · 18 pts19th COV · 15 pts GW 37 · projected 6th MUN · 73 pts8th AVL · 68 pts10th NEW · 50 pts18th HUL · 18 pts19th COV · 15 pts GW 38 · projected 6th MUN · 76 pts8th AVL · 71 pts10th NEW · 53 pts18th HUL · 18 pts19th COV · 15 pts
Aston Villa Newcastle United mid-tableManchester United mid-tableHull City mid-tableCoventry City derby
Aston Villa solid to the last match played, dashed for the forecast. Rivals are dotted throughout, with a dot on their last match played. The white lines are the ones a season is played against – the title, the Champions League places, Europe, and the drop.

Real results so far plus a called outcome for every match still to play, recalculated as results come in. Drawn beside them are the clubs they are actually racing: their usual rivals, and whoever this season has put them in the same fight with. Point at any gameweek for every club's position and points.

Against pre-season expectations

They are 7 places behind our projection.

1st 10th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 · 7 places behind Projected 13thActual 20th GW 2 · 3 places behind Projected 16thActual 19th GW 3 · 9 places behind Projected 8thActual 17th GW 4 · 13 places behind Projected 6thActual 19th GW 5 · 11 places behind Projected 5thActual 16th GW 6 · 11 places behind Projected 5thActual 16th GW 7 · 7 places behind Projected 5thActual 12th GW 8 Projected 5th GW 9 Projected 5th GW 10 Projected 5th GW 11 Projected 5th GW 12 Projected 4th GW 13 Projected 5th GW 14 Projected 4th GW 15 Projected 4th GW 16 Projected 5th GW 17 Projected 5th GW 18 Projected 5th GW 19 Projected 5th GW 20 Projected 5th GW 21 Projected 5th GW 22 Projected 5th GW 23 Projected 5th GW 24 Projected 5th GW 25 Projected 5th GW 26 Projected 5th GW 27 Projected 5th GW 28 Projected 5th GW 29 Projected 5th GW 30 Projected 4th GW 31 Projected 5th GW 32 Projected 5th GW 33 Projected 5th GW 34 Projected 5th GW 35 Projected 5th GW 36 Projected 5th GW 37 Projected 5th GW 38 Projected 5th

Where Aston Villa actually are, week by week, against where the pre-season projection had them – shaded green while they run ahead of it, red while they run behind. Point at any gameweek for both figures.

Next up

Newcastle United 0–1 Aston Villa

Saturday 17th October 2026 (Kick Off: 17:30) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

whichteamwillwin.com
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Newcastle United win

0–1Full time

Newcastle United crest
◀ Newcastle win Aston Villa win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Aston Villa crest

Knife-edge – Newcastle United shade it

NEW AVL W-D-L-W-L L-D-L-W-D Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-D-D-W D-W-L-D-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.00 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.52 1.24 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.30 1.88 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 65% 71% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Above average 1539 Strong 1587 Elo performance 1500 is average 4.5 4.1 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.53 1.48 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven NEW AVL W-D-L-W-L L-D-L-W-D Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-D-D-W D-W-L-D-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.00 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.52 1.24 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.30 1.88 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 65% 71% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Above average 1539 Strong 1587 Elo performance 1500 is average 4.5 4.1 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.53 1.48 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven

The key stat: XI attacking output. No other measure separates them as clearly. Newcastle United lead it, 2.30 to 1.88. the side naming the more potent eleven normally comes out on top here – 71% of the time in recent seasons. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callKnife-edge – Newcastle United 43%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 31%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Newcastle United comes from home advantage, a cup tie in the other side's legs and the midweek cup round.
  • For Newcastle UnitedGoal difference at this venue 1.00 v -0.40 (clear); Home and away form W-W-D-D-W v D-W-L-D-W (useful); XI attacking output 2.30 v 1.88 (useful).
  • For Aston VillaGK save rate 71% v 65% (clear); Elo performance 1587 v 1539 (slight); Goal difference -0.20 v -0.60 (slight).
  • FormNewcastle United W-D-L-W-L, Aston Villa L-D-L-W-D.
Newcastle United 4-2-3-1 confirmedAston Villa 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

21 L. Horníček 3 L. Hall 4 S. Botman 12 M. Thiaw 67 L. Miley 7 Joelinton 6 Nico González 11 H. Barnes 9 Y. Wissa 28 J. Willock 20 M. Fernandez-Pardo
1 Z. Suzuki 29 Wan-Bissaka 5 T. Mings 3 V. Lindelöf 2 M. Cash 35 João Gomes 8 B. Kamara 44 J. Manzambi 10 E. Buendía 47 Alysson 11 N. Jackson
  1. L. Horníček
  2. L. Hall
  3. S. Botman
  4. M. Thiaw
  5. L. Miley
  6. Joelinton
  7. Nico González
  8. H. Barnes
  9. Y. Wissa
  10. J. Willock
  11. M. Fernandez-Pardo
  1. Z. Suzuki
  2. A. Wan-Bissaka
  3. T. Mings
  4. V. Lindelöf
  5. M. Cash
  6. João Gomes
  7. B. Kamara
  8. J. Manzambi
  9. E. Buendía
  10. Alysson
  11. N. Jackson

Substitutes A. Bamba, D. Burn, A. Dedić, J. Murphy, W. Osula, N. Pope, F. Schär, S. Steur, B. Touré

Substitutes R. Barkley, M. Bizot, L. Bogarde, Pau Torres, L. Goretzka, T. Harwood-Bellis, B. Madjo, I. Mbaye, J. McGinn

Our call: 43% NEW · 26% draw · 31% AVL  ·  bookmakers: 42% / 26% / 32%  ·  expected goals 1.52–1.24

Last updated 17 Oct at 17:20

Aston Villa vs. Manchester City

Saturday 24th October 2026 (Kick Off: 12:30) · Gameweek 8

whichteamwillwin.com

Manchester City win

Aston Villa crest
◀ Aston Villa win Man City win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers
Manchester City crest

Confidence: Slight

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AVL MCI D-L-W-D-W W-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 1.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-L-L-D D-D-W-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 1.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.29 1.64 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.05 3.12 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.30 2.03 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Strong 1598 Exceptional 1758 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.36 1.53 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 72% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.4 4.8 Exp: Shots on target Per game AVL MCI D-L-W-D-W W-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 1.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-L-L-D D-D-W-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 1.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.29 1.64 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.05 3.12 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.30 2.03 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Strong 1598 Exceptional 1758 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.36 1.53 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 72% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.4 4.8 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: XI attacking output. No other measure separates them as clearly. Manchester City lead it, 3.12 to 2.05. the side naming the more potent eleven normally comes out on top here – 70% of the time in recent seasons. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callManchester City to win: 45% against 30%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, what this eleven creates and recent shots on target – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For Manchester CityHome and away form D-D-W-W-W v L-W-L-L-D (decisive); XI attacking output 3.12 v 2.05 (decisive); Attack 2.03 v 1.30 (clear).
  • For Aston VillaXI defensive record 1.36 v 1.53 (useful).
  • FormAston Villa D-L-W-D-W, Manchester City W-W-W-W-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1 expected · 9 unavailable · 3 doubtfulManchester City 4-2-3-1 expected · 7 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Manchester City 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 Z. Suzuki 3 V. Lindelöf 5 T. Mings 2 M. Cash 29 Wan-Bissaka 8 B. Kamara 10 Buendía 7 J. McGinn 35 J. Gomes 44 J. Manzambi 11 N.Jackson
1 G. Donnarumma 6 M. Guéhi 3 Rúben 27 Matheus N. 24 J. Gvardiol 5 E. Anderson 17 Enzo 7 I. Ndiaye 10 R. Cherki 42 A. Semenyo 9 E. Haaland
  1. Z. Suzuki98%
  2. V. Lindelöf98%
  3. T. Mings86%
  4. M. Cash63%
  5. A. Wan-Bissaka44%
  6. B. Kamara98%
  7. Buendía92%
  8. J. McGinn83%
  9. J. Gomes58%
  10. J. Manzambi44%
  11. N.Jackson95%
  1. G. Donnarumma98%
  2. M. Guéhi98%
  3. Rúben98%
  4. Matheus N.79%
  5. J. Gvardiol65%
  6. E. Anderson81%
  7. Enzo80%
  8. I. Ndiaye79%
  9. R. Cherki73%
  10. A. Semenyo61%
  11. E. Haaland98%

Likely subs R. Barkley, T. Harwood-Bellis, L. Goretzka, G. Hemmings, I. Mbaye, B. Madjo, L. Bogarde

Likely subs N. O'Reilly, P. Foden, G. Rulli, Allan, A. Khusanov, R. Aït-Nouri, J. Doku

Doubts A. Wan-Bissaka doubtful, J. Manzambi doubtful, I. Maatsen injured, M. Ruggeri injured, G. Hemmings doubtful, Iling Jr unavailable, L. Lynch unavailable, O. Watkins unavailable

Doubts A. Semenyo doubtful, J. Monga unavailable, C. Echeverri unavailable, M. Alleyne unavailable, D. Mukasa unavailable, Rodrigo unavailable, T. Reijnders unavailable, K. Phillips unavailable

Our call: 30% AVL · 25% draw · 45% MCI  ·  bookmakers: 22% / 23% / 55%  ·  expected goals 1.29–1.64

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Aston Villa vs. Fulham

Saturday 31st October 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 9

whichteamwillwin.com

Aston Villa win

Aston Villa crest
◀ Aston Villa win Fulham win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers
Fulham crest

Confidence: Fair

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AVL FUL D-L-W-D-W L-D-D-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-L-L-D L-D-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 48% 52% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.72 1.11 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.36 1.25 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Strong 1598 Average 1501 Elo performance 1500 is average 72% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.05 2.68 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.30 1.50 Attack Goals and expected goals per game AVL FUL D-L-W-D-W L-D-D-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-L-L-D L-D-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 48% 52% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.72 1.11 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.36 1.25 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Strong 1598 Average 1501 Elo performance 1500 is average 72% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.05 2.68 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.30 1.50 Attack Goals and expected goals per game

The key stat: XI defensive record. This is the widest gap between them. Fulham lead it, 1.25 to 1.36. In matches like this, whoever fielded the more solid defence usually wins – about 74% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

Against the call – it favours Fulham; Aston Villa are tipped because they lead on the long-run strength gap and home advantage.

  • The callAston Villa to win: 51% against 24%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap and home advantage – the strongest pull the other way is what this eleven creates.
  • For Aston VillaElo performance 1598 v 1501 (useful); Goals 1.72 v 1.11 (useful); Goal difference at this venue -0.20 v -1.00 (useful).
  • For FulhamXI attacking output 2.68 v 2.05 (useful); Possession 52% v 48% (slight); XI defensive record 1.25 v 1.36 (slight).
  • FormAston Villa D-L-W-D-W, Fulham L-D-D-L-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1 expected · 9 unavailable · 3 doubtfulFulham 4-2-3-1 expected · 3 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Fulham 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 Z. Suzuki 3 V. Lindelöf 5 T. Mings 2 M. Cash 29 Wan-Bissaka 8 B. Kamara 10 Buendía 7 J. McGinn 35 J. Gomes 44 J. Manzambi 11 N.Jackson
1 B. Leno 3 C. Bassey 22 Affengruber 33 A. Robinson 21 T. Castagne 19 S. Charles 17 A. Iwobi 24 J. King 14 O. Bobb 16 S. Berge 7 Gonzalo
  1. Z. Suzuki98%
  2. V. Lindelöf98%
  3. T. Mings86%
  4. M. Cash63%
  5. A. Wan-Bissaka44%
  6. B. Kamara98%
  7. Buendía92%
  8. J. McGinn83%
  9. J. Gomes58%
  10. J. Manzambi44%
  11. N.Jackson95%
  1. B. Leno98%
  2. C. Bassey98%
  3. D. Affengruber80%
  4. A. Robinson79%
  5. T. Castagne78%
  6. S. Charles97%
  7. A. Iwobi96%
  8. J. King95%
  9. O. Bobb92%
  10. S. Berge81%
  11. Gonzalo97%

Likely subs R. Barkley, T. Harwood-Bellis, L. Goretzka, G. Hemmings, I. Mbaye, B. Madjo, L. Bogarde

Likely subs B. Lecomte, Muniz, C. Palacios, Kevin, J. Andersen, Ángel, T. Cairney

Doubts A. Wan-Bissaka doubtful, J. Manzambi doubtful, I. Maatsen injured, M. Ruggeri injured, G. Hemmings doubtful, Iling Jr unavailable, L. Lynch unavailable, O. Watkins unavailable

Doubts R. Sessegnon suspended, A. McNally unavailable, L. De Fougerolles unavailable, H. Larsson doubtful

Our call: 51% AVL · 25% draw · 24% FUL  ·  bookmakers: 47% / 26% / 27%  ·  expected goals 1.72–1.11

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 16:17 · checked today at 10:57

Manchester United vs. Aston Villa

Sunday 8th November 2026 (Kick Off: 16:30) · Gameweek 10

whichteamwillwin.com

Manchester United win

Manchester United crest
◀ Man United win Aston Villa win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Aston Villa crest

Confidence: Slight

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MUN AVL D-L-D-D-D D-L-W-D-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.20 0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-W-L-D W-L-D-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 48% 52% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.54 1.25 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.82 2.05 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 70% 72% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.66 1.30 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 5.3 4.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.32 1.31 Defence Conceded per game MUN AVL D-L-D-D-D D-L-W-D-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.20 0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-W-L-D W-L-D-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 48% 52% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.54 1.25 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.82 2.05 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 70% 72% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.66 1.30 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 5.3 4.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.32 1.31 Defence Conceded per game

The key stat: XI attacking output. No other measure separates them as clearly. Manchester United lead it, 2.82 to 2.05. the side naming the more potent eleven normally comes out on top here – 72% of the time in recent seasons. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callManchester United to win: 44% against 30%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, recent shots on target and what this eleven creates – the strongest pull the other way is changes in the other camp.
  • For Manchester UnitedXI attacking output 2.82 v 2.05 (clear); Goal difference at this venue 0.80 v -0.20 (useful); Attack 1.66 v 1.30 (useful).
  • For Aston VillaPossession 52% v 48% (slight); Goal difference 0.20 v -0.20 (slight); GK save rate 72% v 70% (marginal).
  • FormManchester United D-L-D-D-D, Aston Villa D-L-W-D-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Manchester United 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable · 3 doubtfulAston Villa 4-2-3-1 expected · 9 unavailable · 3 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Manchester United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 S. Lammens 5 H. Maguire 2 Dalot 6 Martinez 23 L. Shaw 8 B.Fernandes 19 B. Mbeumo 18 Y. Tielemans 10 M. Cunha 37 K. Mainoo 9 M. Rashford
1 Z. Suzuki 3 V. Lindelöf 5 T. Mings 2 M. Cash 29 Wan-Bissaka 8 B. Kamara 10 Buendía 7 J. McGinn 35 J. Gomes 44 J. Manzambi 11 N.Jackson
  1. S. Lammens98%
  2. H. Maguire98%
  3. Dalot82%
  4. Martinez72%
  5. L. Shaw45%
  6. B.Fernandes98%
  7. B. Mbeumo98%
  8. Y. Tielemans94%
  9. M. Cunha79%
  10. K. Mainoo59%
  11. M. Rashford56%
  1. Z. Suzuki98%
  2. V. Lindelöf98%
  3. T. Mings86%
  4. M. Cash63%
  5. A. Wan-Bissaka44%
  6. B. Kamara98%
  7. Buendía92%
  8. J. McGinn83%
  9. J. Gomes58%
  10. J. Manzambi44%
  11. N.Jackson95%

Likely subs K. Darlow, L. Yoro, Amad, M. Mount, J. Zirkzee, M. De Ligt, S. Lacey

Likely subs R. Barkley, T. Harwood-Bellis, L. Goretzka, G. Hemmings, I. Mbaye, B. Madjo, L. Bogarde

Doubts Martinez doubtful, K. Mainoo doubtful, L. Shaw doubtful, P. Dorgu injured, T. Heaton injured, Šeško injured, Ugarte injured, T. Collyer unavailable

Doubts A. Wan-Bissaka doubtful, J. Manzambi doubtful, I. Maatsen injured, M. Ruggeri injured, G. Hemmings doubtful, Iling Jr unavailable, L. Lynch unavailable, O. Watkins unavailable

Our call: 44% MUN · 26% draw · 30% AVL  ·  expected goals 1.54–1.25

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Aston Villa vs. Sunderland

Saturday 21st November 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 11

whichteamwillwin.com

Aston Villa win

Aston Villa crest
◀ Aston Villa win Sunderland win ▶ 23% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Sunderland crest

Confidence: Strong

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AVL SUN D-L-W-D-W D-L-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 -1.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-L-L-D W-L-D-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 52% 48% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.86 1.01 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Strong 1598 Below average 1470 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.36 1.65 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 72% 59% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.31 1.63 Defence Conceded per game 2.05 2.33 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven AVL SUN D-L-W-D-W D-L-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 -1.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-L-L-D W-L-D-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 52% 48% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.86 1.01 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Strong 1598 Below average 1470 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.36 1.65 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 72% 59% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.31 1.63 Defence Conceded per game 2.05 2.33 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven

The key stat: Elo performance. No other measure separates them as clearly. Aston Villa come out on top, Strong against Below average. the better-rated side normally comes out on top here – 75% of the time in recent seasons. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callAston Villa to win: 57% against 20%, with the draw at 23%. Confidence strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and changes in the other camp.
  • For Aston VillaGK save rate 72% v 59% (decisive); Goal difference 0.20 v -1.60 (decisive); XI defensive record 1.36 v 1.65 (clear).
  • For SunderlandXI attacking output 2.33 v 2.05 (slight).
  • FormAston Villa D-L-W-D-W, Sunderland D-L-L-L-L.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1 expected · 9 unavailable · 3 doubtfulSunderland 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable · 2 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Sunderland 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 Z. Suzuki 3 V. Lindelöf 5 T. Mings 2 M. Cash 29 Wan-Bissaka 8 B. Kamara 10 Buendía 7 J. McGinn 35 J. Gomes 44 J. Manzambi 11 N.Jackson
22 R. Roefs 20 N. Mukiele 17 Reinildo 12 T. Meunier 32 T. Hume 6 Methalie 28 E.Le Fée 34 G. Xhaka 27 N. Sadiki 10 N.Angulo 9 B. Brobbey
  1. Z. Suzuki98%
  2. V. Lindelöf98%
  3. T. Mings86%
  4. M. Cash63%
  5. A. Wan-Bissaka44%
  6. B. Kamara98%
  7. Buendía92%
  8. J. McGinn83%
  9. J. Gomes58%
  10. J. Manzambi44%
  11. N.Jackson95%
  1. R. Roefs98%
  2. N. Mukiele98%
  3. Reinildo78%
  4. T. Meunier53%
  5. T. Hume43%
  6. Methalie25%
  7. E.Le Fée98%
  8. G. Xhaka98%
  9. N. Sadiki96%
  10. N.Angulo71%
  11. B. Brobbey60%

Likely subs R. Barkley, T. Harwood-Bellis, L. Goretzka, G. Hemmings, I. Mbaye, B. Madjo, L. Bogarde

Likely subs M. Fofana, H. Diarra, C. Talbi, J. Ahoka, J.Angulo, M. Ellborg, L. O'Nien

Doubts A. Wan-Bissaka doubtful, J. Manzambi doubtful, I. Maatsen injured, M. Ruggeri injured, G. Hemmings doubtful, Iling Jr unavailable, L. Lynch unavailable, O. Watkins unavailable

Doubts K. Danso suspended, T. Meunier doubtful, D. Ballard injured, W. Isidor doubtful, L. Hjelde unavailable, J. Seelt unavailable, A. Patterson unavailable, S. Adingra unavailable

Our call: 57% AVL · 23% draw · 20% SUN  ·  expected goals 1.86–1.01

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

The whole season

All 38 of Aston Villa's league matches, what we said would happen, and – where it has been played – what actually did. We have called 3 of 5 of their decided matches so far; 2 were draws, which nobody scores. Rows marked projected are today's model looking ahead: they move every time the season is re-projected, so they are not frozen and are never graded. Everything else is the call we published before kick-off.

GWKick-offOpponentWinDrawLoseOur callResultCalled it?
1 Sun 23 Aug, 14:00 Brighton & Hove Albion (A) 32% 25% 43% LoseConfidence: Knife-edge 0–4
2 Mon 31 Aug, 20:00 Arsenal (H) 27% 26% 47% LoseConfidence: Slight 0–1
3 Sat 5 Sept, 17:30 Hull City (A) 53% 25% 22% WinConfidence: Fair 0–0
4 Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 Nottingham Forest (H) 47% 26% 27% WinConfidence: Slight 1–2
5 Sat 19 Sept, 12:30 Tottenham Hotspur (A) 40% 27% 33% WinConfidence: Knife-edge 3–2
6 Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 Brentford (H) 44% 27% 29% WinConfidence: Slight 2–2
7 Sat 17 Oct, 17:30 Newcastle United (A) 31% 26% 43% LoseConfidence: Knife-edge 1–0
8 Sat 24 Oct, 12:30 Manchester City (H) 30% 25% 45% LoseConfidence: Slight –
9 Sat 31 Oct, 20:00 Fulham (H) 51% 25% 24% WinConfidence: Fair –
10 Sun 8 Nov, 16:30 Manchester United (A) 30% 26% 44% LoseConfidence: Slight –
11 Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 Sunderland (H) 57% 23% 20% WinConfidence: Strong –
12 Sat 28 Nov, 17:30 Ipswich Town (A) 53% 25% 23% WinProjected: Fair –
13 Wed 2 Dec, 20:00 Everton (H) 49% 25% 25% WinProjected: Fair –
14 Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 Crystal Palace (H) 58% 23% 19% WinProjected: Strong –
15 Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 Coventry City (A) 48% 26% 26% WinProjected: Slight –
16 Sat 19 Dec, 15:00 Chelsea (A) 32% 27% 41% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
17 Sat 26 Dec, 12:30 Leeds United (H) 53% 25% 22% WinProjected: Fair –
18 Wed 30 Dec, 20:15 Liverpool (H) 36% 27% 37% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
19 Sat 2 Jan, 17:30 Bournemouth (A) 30% 26% 44% LoseProjected: Slight –
20 Tue 5 Jan, 19:30 Everton (A) 36% 27% 37% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
21 Sat 16 Jan, 15:00 Manchester United (H) 41% 26% 33% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
22 Sat 23 Jan, 15:00 Fulham (A) 38% 27% 35% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
23 Sat 30 Jan, 15:00 Ipswich Town (H) 66% 20% 14% WinProjected: Strong –
24 Sat 6 Feb, 15:00 Sunderland (A) 43% 26% 30% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
25 Wed 10 Feb, 20:00 Bournemouth (H) 42% 26% 31% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
26 Sat 20 Feb, 15:00 Leeds United (A) 40% 28% 32% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
27 Sat 27 Feb, 15:00 Chelsea (H) 45% 26% 29% WinProjected: Slight –
28 Wed 3 Mar, 20:00 Liverpool (A) 24% 25% 50% LoseProjected: Fair –
29 Sat 13 Mar, 15:00 Hull City (H) 64% 21% 15% WinProjected: Strong –
30 Sat 20 Mar, 15:00 Nottingham Forest (A) 39% 27% 34% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
31 Sat 10 Apr, 15:00 Brighton & Hove Albion (H) 41% 27% 32% WinProjected: Knife-edge –
32 Sat 17 Apr, 15:00 Arsenal (A) 16% 22% 62% LoseProjected: Strong –
33 Sat 24 Apr, 15:00 Coventry City (H) 62% 22% 16% WinProjected: Strong –
34 Sat 1 May, 15:00 Crystal Palace (A) 44% 26% 30% WinProjected: Slight –
35 Sat 8 May, 15:00 Brentford (A) 36% 27% 37% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
36 Sat 15 May, 15:00 Newcastle United (H) 50% 25% 25% WinProjected: Fair –
37 Sun 23 May, 15:00 Manchester City (A) 18% 22% 59% LoseProjected: Strong –
38 Sun 30 May, 16:00 Tottenham Hotspur (H) 59% 23% 18% WinProjected: Strong –

Called the winner Called it wrong Drawn – no winner to call