Which Team Will Win?

Aston Villa

Every published prediction involving Aston Villa, newest first, frozen at kick-off as always.

Projected league position, week by week

If the season plays out as the model expects, Aston Villa finish 5th on about 61 points. Every other club is drawn faintly for context.

1st 4th 10th 17th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 · 13th 1 pts projected GW 2 · 16th 2 pts projected GW 3 · 7th 4 pts projected GW 4 · 5th 6 pts projected GW 5 · 5th 8 pts projected GW 6 · 5th 10 pts projected GW 7 · 5th 11 pts projected GW 8 · 5th 12 pts projected GW 9 · 5th 14 pts projected GW 10 · 5th 15 pts projected GW 11 · 5th 17 pts projected GW 12 · 4th 19 pts projected GW 13 · 5th 21 pts projected GW 14 · 4th 23 pts projected GW 15 · 4th 25 pts projected GW 16 · 5th 26 pts projected GW 17 · 5th 28 pts projected GW 18 · 5th 29 pts projected GW 19 · 5th 31 pts projected GW 20 · 5th 32 pts projected GW 21 · 5th 34 pts projected GW 22 · 5th 35 pts projected GW 23 · 5th 37 pts projected GW 24 · 5th 39 pts projected GW 25 · 5th 41 pts projected GW 26 · 5th 42 pts projected GW 27 · 5th 44 pts projected GW 28 · 5th 45 pts projected GW 29 · 5th 47 pts projected GW 30 · 4th 49 pts projected GW 31 · 5th 51 pts projected GW 32 · 5th 51 pts projected GW 33 · 5th 53 pts projected GW 34 · 5th 55 pts projected GW 35 · 5th 57 pts projected GW 36 · 5th 58 pts projected GW 37 · 5th 59 pts projected GW 38 · 5th 61 pts projected

Against pre-season expectations

Once Aston Villa have played a few matches, this chart will track where they actually are against where we projected them before a ball was kicked — green when they are running ahead of it, red when they are behind.

Next up

Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Aston Villa

Sunday 23rd August 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 1

whichteamwillwin.com

Too close to call

◀ Brighton win Aston Villa win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 25%

Draw 25% · leans BHA by 10 points

More statsLess
Brighton & Hove Albion crest
BHA AVL W-L-W-L-L L-L-D-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) 0.00 0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) L-W-W-W-L L-D-L-D-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.60 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 52% 48% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.59 1.37 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.78 2.20 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 71% 63% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.18 1.38 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.64 1.38 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.21 1.46 Defence Conceded per game
Aston Villa crest

The key stat: XI attacking output. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Brighton & Hove Albion lead it, 2.78 to 2.20. When this gap appears, whoever fielded the greater attacking threat tends to win, in around 73% of cases. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callToo close to call — Brighton & Hove Albion 42%, draw 25%, Aston Villa 33%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • For Brighton & Hove AlbionGK save rate 71% v 63% (clear); Home and away form L-W-W-W-L v L-D-L-D-W (useful); XI attacking output 2.78 v 2.20 (useful).
  • For Aston VillaGoal difference 0.20 v 0.00 (marginal).
  • FormBrighton & Hove Albion W-L-W-L-L, Aston Villa L-L-D-W-W.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Verbruggen98%
  2. F.Kadıoğlu98%
  3. Boscagli98%
  4. StruijkNEW98%
  5. Wieffer92%
  6. Groß98%
  7. Hinshelwood98%
  8. Gomez75%
  9. Ayari41%
  10. O'Riley22%
  11. Georginio24%
  1. Martinez98%
  2. Konsa98%
  3. Mings98%
  4. Lindelöf95%
  5. Cash82%
  6. Kamara98%
  7. Bogarde78%
  8. McGinn78%
  9. Barkley63%
  10. Buendía60%
  11. Watkins81%

Likely subs Steele, Dunk, De Cuyper, Coppola, Igor, Kostoulas, Oriola

Likely subs M.Bizot, Pau, Maatsen, Bailey, A.García, Abraham, Garnacho

Doubts Minteh injured, Baleba injured, Mitoma injured, Buonanotte unavailable, Howell unavailable, Ferguson injured, Tzimas injured, Watson unavailable

Doubts Gomes injured, Onana injured, Digne unavailable, Abraham doubtful, Nedeljkovic unavailable, Manzambi injured, Madjo injured, Iling Jr unavailable

Our call: 42% BHA · 25% draw · 33% AVL  ·  expected goals 1.59–1.37

Last updated today at 09:41

Aston Villa vs. Arsenal

Monday 31st August 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 2

whichteamwillwin.com

Arsenal win

◀ Aston Villa win Arsenal win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 25%

Confidence: Slight

More statsLess
Aston Villa crest
AVL ARS L-L-D-W-W W-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) 0.20 1.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) L-W-W-L-W W-W-L-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.20 1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.28 1.66 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.20 3.02 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 63% 76% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Strong 1616 Exceptional 1744 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.38 1.05 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.38 1.74 Attack Goals and expected goals per game
Arsenal crest

The key stat: XI attacking output. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Arsenal come out on top, 3.02 against 2.20. When this gap appears, whoever fielded the greater attacking threat tends to win, in around 73% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callArsenal to win: 46% against 29%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence slight.
  • For ArsenalGK save rate 76% v 63% (decisive); XI defensive record 1.05 v 1.38 (clear); XI attacking output 3.02 v 2.20 (clear).
  • For Aston VillaPossession 50% v 50% (marginal).
  • FormAston Villa L-L-D-W-W, Arsenal W-W-W-W-W.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Arsenal 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Martinez98%
  2. Konsa98%
  3. Mings98%
  4. Lindelöf95%
  5. Cash82%
  6. Kamara98%
  7. Bogarde78%
  8. McGinn78%
  9. Barkley63%
  10. Buendía60%
  11. Watkins81%
  1. Raya98%
  2. Calafiori92%
  3. Gabriel83%
  4. White75%
  5. Mosquera62%
  6. Rice98%
  7. Saka77%
  8. Eze75%
  9. Bruno G.NEW73%
  10. Ødegaard62%
  11. Havertz60%

Likely subs M.Bizot, Pau, Maatsen, Bailey, A.García, Abraham, Garnacho

Likely subs Arrizabalaga, Meslier, Hincapie, Lewis-Skelly, Madueke, Zubimendi, Gyökeres

Doubts Gomes injured, Onana injured, Digne unavailable, Abraham doubtful, Nedeljkovic unavailable, Manzambi injured, Madjo injured, Iling Jr unavailable

Doubts Saliba injured, Bruno G. doubtful, J.Timber injured

Our call: 29% AVL · 25% draw · 46% ARS  ·  expected goals 1.28–1.66

Last updated 19 Aug at 12:28

The road ahead

The rest of Aston Villa's next 20 fixtures. These are projections from today's model, refreshed each time the season is re-projected — unlike the published predictions above, they are not frozen and do not count towards the track record.

Kick-offGWOpponentWinDrawLoseOur call
Sat 5 Sept, 17:30 3 Hull City (A) 62% 21% 17% Win 62%
Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 4 Nottingham Forest (H) 54% 24% 23% Win 54%
Sat 19 Sept, 12:30 5 Tottenham Hotspur (A) 45% 26% 29% Win 45%
Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 6 Brentford (H) 55% 24% 21% Win 55%
Sat 17 Oct, 17:30 7 Newcastle United (A) 39% 26% 35% Win 39%
Sat 24 Oct, 12:30 8 Manchester City (H) 30% 24% 46% Lose 46%
Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 9 Fulham (H) 52% 25% 23% Win 52%
Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 10 Manchester United (A) 29% 25% 47% Lose 47%
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 11 Sunderland (H) 56% 24% 20% Win 56%
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 12 Ipswich Town (A) 61% 22% 17% Win 61%
Wed 2 Dec, 20:00 13 Everton (H) 53% 24% 23% Win 53%
Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 14 Crystal Palace (H) 56% 23% 21% Win 56%
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 15 Coventry City (A) 48% 25% 27% Win 48%
Sat 19 Dec, 15:00 16 Chelsea (A) 37% 26% 36% Win 37%
Sat 26 Dec, 15:00 17 Leeds United (H) 54% 23% 22% Win 54%
Wed 30 Dec, 20:00 18 Liverpool (H) 41% 26% 34% Win 41%
Sat 2 Jan, 15:00 19 Bournemouth (A) 35% 26% 38% Lose 38%
Wed 6 Jan, 20:00 20 Everton (A) 40% 26% 35% Win 40%