Which Team Will Win?

Newcastle United 0–1 Aston Villa

Saturday 17th October 2026 (Kick Off: 17:30) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

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Newcastle United win

0–1Full time

Newcastle United crest
◀ Newcastle win Aston Villa win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Aston Villa crest

Knife-edge – Newcastle United shade it

NEW AVL W-D-L-W-L L-D-L-W-D Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-D-D-W D-W-L-D-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.00 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.52 1.24 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.30 1.88 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 65% 71% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Above average 1539 Strong 1587 Elo performance 1500 is average 4.5 4.1 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.53 1.48 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven NEW AVL W-D-L-W-L L-D-L-W-D Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-D-D-W D-W-L-D-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.00 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.52 1.24 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.30 1.88 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 65% 71% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Above average 1539 Strong 1587 Elo performance 1500 is average 4.5 4.1 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.53 1.48 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven

The key stat: XI attacking output. No other measure separates them as clearly. Newcastle United lead it, 2.30 to 1.88. the side naming the more potent eleven normally comes out on top here – 71% of the time in recent seasons. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callKnife-edge – Newcastle United 43%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 31%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Newcastle United comes from home advantage, a cup tie in the other side's legs and the midweek cup round.
  • For Newcastle UnitedGoal difference at this venue 1.00 v -0.40 (clear); Home and away form W-W-D-D-W v D-W-L-D-W (useful); XI attacking output 2.30 v 1.88 (useful).
  • For Aston VillaGK save rate 71% v 65% (clear); Elo performance 1587 v 1539 (slight); Goal difference -0.20 v -0.60 (slight).
  • FormNewcastle United W-D-L-W-L, Aston Villa L-D-L-W-D.
Newcastle United 4-2-3-1 confirmedAston Villa 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

21 L. Horníček 3 L. Hall 4 S. Botman 12 M. Thiaw 67 L. Miley 7 Joelinton 6 Nico González 11 H. Barnes 9 Y. Wissa 28 J. Willock 20 M. Fernandez-Pardo
1 Z. Suzuki 29 Wan-Bissaka 5 T. Mings 3 V. Lindelöf 2 M. Cash 35 João Gomes 8 B. Kamara 44 J. Manzambi 10 E. Buendía 47 Alysson 11 N. Jackson
  1. L. Horníček
  2. L. Hall
  3. S. Botman
  4. M. Thiaw
  5. L. Miley
  6. Joelinton
  7. Nico González
  8. H. Barnes
  9. Y. Wissa
  10. J. Willock
  11. M. Fernandez-Pardo
  1. Z. Suzuki
  2. A. Wan-Bissaka
  3. T. Mings
  4. V. Lindelöf
  5. M. Cash
  6. João Gomes
  7. B. Kamara
  8. J. Manzambi
  9. E. Buendía
  10. Alysson
  11. N. Jackson

Substitutes A. Bamba, D. Burn, A. Dedić, J. Murphy, W. Osula, N. Pope, F. Schär, S. Steur, B. Touré

Substitutes R. Barkley, M. Bizot, L. Bogarde, Pau Torres, L. Goretzka, T. Harwood-Bellis, B. Madjo, I. Mbaye, J. McGinn

Our call: 43% NEW · 26% draw · 31% AVL  ·  bookmakers: 42% / 26% / 32%  ·  expected goals 1.52–1.24

Last updated 17 Oct at 17:20

What separates them

Reason◂ NewcastleAston Villa ▸Goals
Home advantage 0.28
Long-run strength 0.20
Cup match in the week 0.17
Shots on target 0.04
XI attacking output 0.04
Settled eleven 0.03
Everything else 0.08
Newcastle ahead by 0.27

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Newcastle come out 0.27 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Aston Villa goals Newcastle goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Newcastle 0–0 Aston Villa: 7% Newcastle 0–1 Aston Villa: 8% Newcastle 0–2 Aston Villa: 5% Newcastle 0–3 Aston Villa: 2% Newcastle 0–4 Aston Villa: <1% Newcastle 0–5 Aston Villa: <1% Newcastle 1–0 Aston Villa: 9% Newcastle 1–1 Aston Villa: 12% Newcastle 1–2 Aston Villa: 7% Newcastle 1–3 Aston Villa: 3% Newcastle 1–4 Aston Villa: <1% Newcastle 1–5 Aston Villa: <1% Newcastle 2–0 Aston Villa: 7% Newcastle 2–1 Aston Villa: 9% Newcastle 2–2 Aston Villa: 6% Newcastle 2–3 Aston Villa: 2% Newcastle 2–4 Aston Villa: <1% Newcastle 2–5 Aston Villa: <1% Newcastle 3–0 Aston Villa: 4% Newcastle 3–1 Aston Villa: 5% Newcastle 3–2 Aston Villa: 3% Newcastle 3–3 Aston Villa: 1% Newcastle 3–4 Aston Villa: <1% Newcastle 3–5 Aston Villa: <1% Newcastle 4–0 Aston Villa: 1% Newcastle 4–1 Aston Villa: 2% Newcastle 4–2 Aston Villa: 1% Newcastle 4–3 Aston Villa: <1% Newcastle 4–4 Aston Villa: <1% Newcastle 5–0 Aston Villa: <1% Newcastle 5–1 Aston Villa: <1% Newcastle 5–2 Aston Villa: <1% Newcastle 5–3 Aston Villa: <1% Newcastle 6–0 Aston Villa: <1% Newcastle 6–1 Aston Villa: <1% Newcastle 6–2 Aston Villa: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Newcastle win, above it Aston Villa do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →