Which Team Will Win?

Arsenal

Where we have Arsenal finishing, the matches they have next, and every call we have made about them this season – frozen at kick-off, right or wrong.

Projected league position, week by week

If the season plays out as the model expects, Arsenal finish 2nd on 108 points.

1st 4th 10th 17th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 1st BHA · 3 pts2nd ARS · 3 pts8th MCI · 3 pts19th TOT · 0 pts GW 2 1st MCI · 6 pts2nd ARS · 6 pts9th BHA · 3 pts20th TOT · 0 pts GW 3 1st MCI · 9 pts2nd ARS · 9 pts10th BHA · 4 pts18th TOT · 1 pts GW 4 1st ARS · 12 pts2nd MCI · 12 pts5th BHA · 7 pts17th TOT · 2 pts GW 5 1st MCI · 15 pts2nd ARS · 12 pts3rd BHA · 10 pts20th TOT · 2 pts GW 6 1st MCI · 18 pts2nd ARS · 15 pts3rd BHA · 13 pts19th TOT · 3 pts GW 7 1st MCI · 21 pts2nd ARS · 18 pts3rd BHA · 16 pts16th TOT · 6 pts GW 8 · projected 1st MCI · 24 pts2nd ARS · 21 pts3rd BHA · 16 pts20th TOT · 6 pts GW 9 · projected 1st MCI · 27 pts2nd ARS · 24 pts4th BHA · 16 pts16th TOT · 9 pts GW 10 · projected 1st MCI · 30 pts2nd ARS · 27 pts4th BHA · 19 pts17th TOT · 9 pts GW 11 · projected 1st MCI · 33 pts2nd ARS · 30 pts4th BHA · 22 pts14th TOT · 12 pts GW 12 · projected 1st MCI · 33 pts2nd ARS · 33 pts4th BHA · 25 pts15th TOT · 12 pts GW 13 · projected 1st MCI · 36 pts2nd ARS · 36 pts5th BHA · 25 pts16th TOT · 12 pts GW 14 · projected 1st MCI · 39 pts2nd ARS · 39 pts5th BHA · 28 pts16th TOT · 12 pts GW 15 · projected 1st MCI · 42 pts2nd ARS · 42 pts4th BHA · 31 pts16th TOT · 12 pts GW 16 · projected 1st MCI · 45 pts2nd ARS · 45 pts4th BHA · 34 pts17th TOT · 12 pts GW 17 · projected 1st MCI · 48 pts2nd ARS · 48 pts4th BHA · 37 pts17th TOT · 12 pts GW 18 · projected 1st MCI · 51 pts2nd ARS · 51 pts4th BHA · 40 pts17th TOT · 12 pts GW 19 · projected 1st MCI · 54 pts2nd ARS · 54 pts4th BHA · 43 pts17th TOT · 12 pts GW 20 · projected 1st MCI · 57 pts2nd ARS · 57 pts4th BHA · 46 pts18th TOT · 12 pts GW 21 · projected 1st MCI · 60 pts2nd ARS · 60 pts4th BHA · 49 pts17th TOT · 15 pts GW 22 · projected 1st MCI · 63 pts2nd ARS · 63 pts5th BHA · 49 pts17th TOT · 15 pts GW 23 · projected 1st MCI · 66 pts2nd ARS · 63 pts5th BHA · 52 pts16th TOT · 18 pts GW 24 · projected 1st MCI · 69 pts2nd ARS · 66 pts3rd BHA · 55 pts15th TOT · 21 pts GW 25 · projected 1st MCI · 72 pts2nd ARS · 69 pts4th BHA · 55 pts16th TOT · 21 pts GW 26 · projected 1st MCI · 75 pts2nd ARS · 72 pts4th BHA · 58 pts16th TOT · 21 pts GW 27 · projected 1st MCI · 78 pts2nd ARS · 75 pts4th BHA · 61 pts17th TOT · 21 pts GW 28 · projected 1st MCI · 81 pts2nd ARS · 78 pts4th BHA · 64 pts17th TOT · 21 pts GW 29 · projected 1st MCI · 84 pts2nd ARS · 81 pts4th BHA · 67 pts16th TOT · 24 pts GW 30 · projected 1st MCI · 87 pts2nd ARS · 84 pts4th BHA · 70 pts17th TOT · 24 pts GW 31 · projected 1st MCI · 90 pts2nd ARS · 87 pts4th BHA · 70 pts17th TOT · 24 pts GW 32 · projected 1st MCI · 93 pts2nd ARS · 90 pts4th BHA · 73 pts17th TOT · 24 pts GW 33 · projected 1st MCI · 96 pts2nd ARS · 93 pts4th BHA · 76 pts16th TOT · 27 pts GW 34 · projected 1st MCI · 99 pts2nd ARS · 96 pts4th BHA · 79 pts16th TOT · 27 pts GW 35 · projected 1st MCI · 102 pts2nd ARS · 99 pts4th BHA · 82 pts16th TOT · 27 pts GW 36 · projected 1st MCI · 105 pts2nd ARS · 102 pts4th BHA · 85 pts16th TOT · 27 pts GW 37 · projected 1st MCI · 108 pts2nd ARS · 105 pts3rd BHA · 88 pts16th TOT · 27 pts GW 38 · projected 1st MCI · 111 pts2nd ARS · 108 pts4th BHA · 88 pts17th TOT · 27 pts
Arsenal Manchester City titleBrighton & Hove Albion titleTottenham Hotspur derby
Arsenal solid to the last match played, dashed for the forecast. Rivals are dotted throughout, with a dot on their last match played. The white lines are the ones a season is played against – the title, the Champions League places, Europe, and the drop.

Real results so far plus a called outcome for every match still to play, recalculated as results come in. Drawn beside them are the clubs they are actually racing: their usual rivals, and whoever this season has put them in the same fight with. Point at any gameweek for every club's position and points.

Against pre-season expectations

They are exactly where we projected them.

1st 10th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 · 1 place behind Projected 1stActual 2nd GW 2 · 1 place ahead Actual 2ndProjected 3rd GW 3 Actual 2ndProjected 2nd GW 4 · 1 place ahead Actual 1stProjected 2nd GW 5 Actual 2ndProjected 2nd GW 6 Actual 2ndProjected 2nd GW 7 Actual 2ndProjected 2nd GW 8 Projected 2nd GW 9 Projected 2nd GW 10 Projected 2nd GW 11 Projected 2nd GW 12 Projected 2nd GW 13 Projected 2nd GW 14 Projected 2nd GW 15 Projected 2nd GW 16 Projected 2nd GW 17 Projected 2nd GW 18 Projected 2nd GW 19 Projected 2nd GW 20 Projected 2nd GW 21 Projected 2nd GW 22 Projected 2nd GW 23 Projected 2nd GW 24 Projected 2nd GW 25 Projected 2nd GW 26 Projected 2nd GW 27 Projected 2nd GW 28 Projected 2nd GW 29 Projected 2nd GW 30 Projected 2nd GW 31 Projected 2nd GW 32 Projected 2nd GW 33 Projected 2nd GW 34 Projected 2nd GW 35 Projected 2nd GW 36 Projected 2nd GW 37 Projected 2nd GW 38 Projected 2nd

Where Arsenal actually are, week by week, against where the pre-season projection had them – shaded green while they run ahead of it, red while they run behind. Point at any gameweek for both figures.

Next up

Nottingham Forest 0–1 Arsenal

Sunday 18th October 2026 (Kick Off: 16:30) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

whichteamwillwin.com
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Arsenal win

0–1Full time

Nottingham Forest crest
◀ Forest win Arsenal win ▶ 21% draw chance bookmakers
Arsenal crest

Confidence: Strong

NFO ARS D-D-W-L-L W-W-W-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.40 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-L-D-L W-W-W-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 43% 57% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 0.89 2.01 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Average 1506 Exceptional 1752 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.80 1.88 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 2.37 3.10 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.52 0.83 Defence Conceded per game 70% 76% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.2 5.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game NFO ARS D-D-W-L-L W-W-W-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.40 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-L-D-L W-W-W-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 43% 57% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 0.89 2.01 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Average 1506 Exceptional 1752 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.80 1.88 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 2.37 3.10 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.52 0.83 Defence Conceded per game 70% 76% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.2 5.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: Elo performance. No other measure separates them as clearly. Arsenal lead it, Exceptional to Average. the better-rated side normally comes out on top here – 75% of the time in recent seasons. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callArsenal to win: 63% against 16%, with the draw at 21%. Confidence strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and the defence in front of them – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For ArsenalHome and away form W-W-W-W-L v D-D-L-D-L (decisive); Elo performance 1752 v 1506 (decisive); Possession 57% v 43% (decisive).
  • For Nottingham ForestNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormNottingham Forest D-D-W-L-L, Arsenal W-W-W-L-W.
Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1 confirmedArsenal 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

Arsenal 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

26 M. Sels 5 Murillo 2 O. Diomande 23 Jair Cunha 3 N. Williams 8 N. Domínguez 21 X. Schlager 27 D. Muñoz 14 D. Ndoye 24 J. McAtee 19 L. Delap
1 David Raya 33 R. Calafiori 6 Gabriel Magalhães 15 E. Konsa 4 B. White 39 Bruno Guimarães 41 D. Rice 10 E. Eze 8 M. Ødegaard 7 B. Saka 29 K. Havertz
  1. M. Sels
  2. Murillo
  3. O. Diomande
  4. Jair Cunha
  5. N. Williams
  6. N. Domínguez
  7. X. Schlager
  8. D. Muñoz
  9. D. Ndoye
  10. J. McAtee
  11. L. Delap
  1. David Raya
  2. R. Calafiori
  3. Gabriel Magalhães
  4. E. Konsa
  5. B. White
  6. Bruno Guimarães
  7. D. Rice
  8. E. Eze
  9. M. Ødegaard
  10. B. Saka
  11. K. Havertz

Substitutes O. Aina, C. Hudson-Odoi, A. Kalimuendo, John Victor, N. Milenković, L. Netz, I. Sangaré, C. Wood, R. Yates

Substitutes M. Dowman, V. Gyökeres, M. Lewis-Skelly, N. Madueke, Mikel Merino, I. Meslier, Cristhian Mosquera, J. Timber, Martín Zubimendi

Our call: 16% NFO · 21% draw · 63% ARS  ·  bookmakers: 17% / 25% / 59%  ·  expected goals 0.89–2.01

Last updated 18 Oct at 15:46

Arsenal vs. Everton

Saturday 24th October 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 8

whichteamwillwin.com

Arsenal win

Arsenal crest
◀ Arsenal win Everton win ▶ 19% draw chance bookmakers
Everton crest

Confidence: Very strong

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ARS EVE W-W-L-W-W D-D-W-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-W-W-W D-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.80 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 57% 43% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 2.18 0.83 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1757 Above average 1526 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 0.95 1.36 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 0.71 1.45 Defence Conceded per game 2.81 2.27 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 75% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ARS EVE W-W-L-W-W D-D-W-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-W-W-W D-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.80 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 57% 43% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 2.18 0.83 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1757 Above average 1526 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 0.95 1.36 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 0.71 1.45 Defence Conceded per game 2.81 2.27 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 75% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved

The key stat: Elo performance. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. It goes to Arsenal: Exceptional to Above average. When this gap appears, the side carrying the stronger record tends to win, in around 75% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callArsenal to win: 68% against 13%, with the draw at 19%. Confidence very strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and the defence in front of them – the strongest pull the other way is a cup tie in the other side's legs.
  • For ArsenalHome and away form W-W-W-W-W v D-L-D-D-D (decisive); Elo performance 1757 v 1526 (decisive); Goals 2.18 v 0.83 (decisive).
  • For EvertonNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormArsenal W-W-L-W-W, Everton D-D-W-D-L.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Arsenal 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailableEverton 4-2-3-1 expected · 3 unavailable Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Arsenal 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Everton 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 Raya 6 Gabriel 15 Konsa 33 R. Calafiori 4 B. White 7 B. Saka 41 D. Rice 8 M. Ødegaard 49 Lewis-Skelly 39 Bruno G. 29 K. Havertz
1 J. Pickford 6 J. Tarkowski 4 Branthwaite 16 V. Mykolenko 2 Maitland-Niles 8 K. Dewsbury-Hall 37 J. Garner 45 H. Armstrong 22 B. Johnson 10 J. Grealish 11 T. Barry
  1. Raya98%
  2. Gabriel98%
  3. Konsa98%
  4. R. Calafiori97%
  5. B. White71%
  6. B. Saka98%
  7. D. Rice98%
  8. M. Ødegaard97%
  9. M. Lewis-Skelly51%
  10. Bruno G.41%
  11. K. Havertz94%
  1. J. Pickford98%
  2. J. Tarkowski98%
  3. J. Branthwaite98%
  4. V. Mykolenko80%
  5. A. Maitland-Niles75%
  6. K. Dewsbury-Hall98%
  7. J. Garner98%
  8. H. Armstrong98%
  9. B. Johnson72%
  10. J. Grealish62%
  11. T. Barry98%

Likely subs J.Timber, V. Gyökeres, N. Madueke, Merino, M. Dowman, C. Mosquera, Zubimendi

Likely subs T. George, M. Röhl, M. Travers, H. Hackney, T. Dibling, Alcaraz, C. Nørgaard

Doubts C. Tzolis injured, Hincapie injured, Martinelli unavailable, W. Saliba injured, G.Jesus unavailable, Fábio Vieira unavailable, R. Nelson unavailable, E. Nwaneri unavailable

Doubts A. Aznou unavailable, Beto unavailable, N. Patterson unavailable

Our call: 68% ARS · 19% draw · 13% EVE  ·  bookmakers: 68% / 21% / 12%  ·  expected goals 2.18–0.83

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Liverpool vs. Arsenal

Sunday 1st November 2026 (Kick Off: 16:30) · Gameweek 9

whichteamwillwin.com

Arsenal win

Liverpool crest
◀ Liverpool win Arsenal win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Arsenal crest

Confidence: Slight

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LIV ARS W-D-W-L-W W-W-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-D-D-L W-W-W-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.18 1.55 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.45 2.81 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 68% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.16 0.71 Defence Conceded per game 1.22 0.95 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.60 1.68 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Very strong 1641 Exceptional 1757 Elo performance 1500 is average LIV ARS W-D-W-L-W W-W-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-D-D-L W-W-W-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.18 1.55 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.45 2.81 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 68% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.16 0.71 Defence Conceded per game 1.22 0.95 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.60 1.68 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Very strong 1641 Exceptional 1757 Elo performance 1500 is average

The key stat: XI attacking output. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. Arsenal lead it, 2.81 to 2.45. Historically, the side naming the more potent eleven takes these roughly 70% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callArsenal to win: 46% against 29%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, a cup tie in the other side's legs and the defence in front of them – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For ArsenalHome and away form W-W-W-L-W v D-D-D-D-L (decisive); GK save rate 75% v 68% (clear); XI defensive record 0.95 v 1.22 (useful).
  • For LiverpoolNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormLiverpool W-D-W-L-W, Arsenal W-W-L-W-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Liverpool 4-2-3-1 expected · 11 unavailableArsenal 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Liverpool 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Arsenal 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 A.Becker 4 Virgil 5 J. Jacquet 33 R. Araujo 6 M. Kerkez 7 F. Wirtz 10 A. Mac Allister 29 B. Barcola 23 V. Munoz 18 C. Gakpo 9 A. Isak
1 Raya 6 Gabriel 15 Konsa 33 R. Calafiori 4 B. White 7 B. Saka 41 D. Rice 8 M. Ødegaard 49 Lewis-Skelly 39 Bruno G. 29 K. Havertz
  1. A.Becker98%
  2. Virgil98%
  3. J. Jacquet98%
  4. R. Araujo93%
  5. M. Kerkez84%
  6. F. Wirtz96%
  7. A. Mac Allister82%
  8. B. Barcola79%
  9. V. Munoz75%
  10. C. Gakpo43%
  11. A. Isak76%
  1. Raya98%
  2. Gabriel98%
  3. Konsa98%
  4. R. Calafiori97%
  5. B. White71%
  6. B. Saka98%
  7. D. Rice98%
  8. M. Ødegaard97%
  9. M. Lewis-Skelly51%
  10. Bruno G.41%
  11. K. Havertz94%

Likely subs R. Gravenberch, R. Ngumoha, L. Koumas, J. Gomez, K. Tsimikas, Endo, G. Mamardashvili

Likely subs J.Timber, V. Gyökeres, N. Madueke, Merino, M. Dowman, C. Mosquera, Zubimendi

Doubts D. Szoboszlai injured, A. Pecsi unavailable, J. Frimpong injured, V. Jaros injured, G. Leoni injured, C. Ramsay unavailable, H. Ekitiké injured, C.Jones unavailable

Doubts C. Tzolis injured, Hincapie injured, Martinelli unavailable, W. Saliba injured, G.Jesus unavailable, Fábio Vieira unavailable, R. Nelson unavailable, E. Nwaneri unavailable

Our call: 29% LIV · 26% draw · 46% ARS  ·  bookmakers: 29% / 26% / 44%  ·  expected goals 1.18–1.55

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Arsenal vs. Hull City

Saturday 7th November 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 10

whichteamwillwin.com

Arsenal win

Arsenal crest
◀ Arsenal win Hull City win ▶ 12% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Hull City crest

Confidence: Very strong

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ARS HUL W-W-L-W-W D-D-L-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-W-W-W L-W-D-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.80 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 2.77 0.60 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1757 Weak 1423 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 75% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 0.71 1.95 Defence Conceded per game 2.81 1.62 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 0.95 1.48 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.68 0.83 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ARS HUL W-W-L-W-W D-D-L-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-W-W-W L-W-D-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.80 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 2.77 0.60 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1757 Weak 1423 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 75% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 0.71 1.95 Defence Conceded per game 2.81 1.62 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 0.95 1.48 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.68 0.83 Attack Goals and expected goals per game

The key stat: Elo performance. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Arsenal come out on top, Exceptional against Weak. When this gap appears, the side carrying the stronger record tends to win, in around 75% of cases. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callArsenal to win: 82% against 5%, with the draw at 12%. Confidence very strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and the defence in front of them.
  • For ArsenalHome and away form W-W-W-W-W v L-W-D-L-L (decisive); Goal difference at this venue 1.80 v -1.00 (decisive); Goals 2.77 v 0.60 (decisive).
  • For Hull CityGK save rate 75% v 75% (marginal).
  • FormArsenal W-W-L-W-W, Hull City D-D-L-D-L.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Arsenal 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailableHull City 5-4-1 expected · 18 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Arsenal 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Hull City 5-4-1

Expected starting XI

1 Raya 6 Gabriel 15 Konsa 33 R. Calafiori 4 B. White 7 B. Saka 41 D. Rice 8 M. Ødegaard 49 Lewis-Skelly 39 Bruno G. 29 K. Havertz
19 K. Tzolakis 6 S. Ajayi 15 J. Egan 2 L. Coyle 3 R. Giles 22 Herrington 27 R. Slater 10 M. Belloumi 25 M. Crooks 7 S. Thomas 9 O. McBurnie
  1. Raya98%
  2. Gabriel98%
  3. Konsa98%
  4. R. Calafiori97%
  5. B. White71%
  6. B. Saka98%
  7. D. Rice98%
  8. M. Ødegaard97%
  9. M. Lewis-Skelly51%
  10. Bruno G.41%
  11. K. Havertz94%
  1. K. Tzolakis98%
  2. S. Ajayi98%
  3. J. Egan98%
  4. L. Coyle97%
  5. R. Giles80%
  6. L. Herrington40%
  7. R. Slater96%
  8. M. Belloumi78%
  9. M. Crooks70%
  10. S. Thomas60%
  11. O. McBurnie98%

Likely subs J.Timber, V. Gyökeres, N. Madueke, Merino, M. Dowman, C. Mosquera, Zubimendi

Likely subs E. Stroud, C. Mouzakitis, D. Phillips, A. Ömür, C. McCarthy, T. Iroegbunam, J. Gelhardt

Doubts C. Tzolis injured, Hincapie injured, Martinelli unavailable, W. Saliba injured, G.Jesus unavailable, Fábio Vieira unavailable, R. Nelson unavailable, E. Nwaneri unavailable

Doubts N. Mendy injured, A. Kamara unavailable, J. Butland injured, D. Akintola unavailable, I. Ansah injured, M. Jacob unavailable, R. Vaz doubtful, L. Gourna-Douath injured

Our call: 82% ARS · 12% draw · 5% HUL  ·  expected goals 2.77–0.60

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

Newcastle United vs. Arsenal

Saturday 21st November 2026 (Kick Off: 17:30) · Gameweek 11

whichteamwillwin.com

Arsenal win

Newcastle United crest
◀ Newcastle win Arsenal win ▶ 24% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Arsenal crest

Confidence: Fair

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NEW ARS D-L-W-L-L W-W-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches -1.20 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-D-W-L W-W-W-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 0.98 1.79 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Above average 1529 Exceptional 1757 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 65% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.51 0.71 Defence Conceded per game 2.34 2.81 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.55 0.95 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 4.3 4.9 Exp: Shots on target Per game NEW ARS D-L-W-L-L W-W-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches -1.20 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-D-W-L W-W-W-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 0.98 1.79 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Above average 1529 Exceptional 1757 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 65% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.51 0.71 Defence Conceded per game 2.34 2.81 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.55 0.95 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 4.3 4.9 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: Elo performance. No other measure separates them as clearly. Arsenal lead it, Exceptional to Above average. the better-rated side normally comes out on top here – 75% of the time in recent seasons. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callArsenal to win: 56% against 20%, with the draw at 24%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, the defence in front of them and recent shots on target – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For ArsenalXI defensive record 0.95 v 1.55 (decisive); Elo performance 1757 v 1529 (decisive); GK save rate 75% v 65% (decisive).
  • For Newcastle UnitedNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormNewcastle United D-L-W-L-L, Arsenal W-W-L-W-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailableArsenal 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Arsenal 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

21 Horníček 3 L. Hall 12 M. Thiaw 4 S. Botman 11 H. Barnes 67 L.Miley 28 J. Willock 6 N.Gonzalez 23 J.Murphy 9 Y. Wissa 20 M. Fernandez-Pardo
1 Raya 6 Gabriel 15 Konsa 33 R. Calafiori 4 B. White 7 B. Saka 41 D. Rice 8 M. Ødegaard 49 Lewis-Skelly 39 Bruno G. 29 K. Havertz
  1. Horníček98%
  2. L. Hall98%
  3. M. Thiaw98%
  4. S. Botman98%
  5. H. Barnes98%
  6. L.Miley94%
  7. J. Willock74%
  8. N.Gonzalez72%
  9. J.Murphy55%
  10. Y. Wissa98%
  11. M. Fernandez-Pardo75%
  1. Raya98%
  2. Gabriel98%
  3. Konsa98%
  4. R. Calafiori97%
  5. B. White71%
  6. B. Saka98%
  7. D. Rice98%
  8. M. Ødegaard97%
  9. M. Lewis-Skelly51%
  10. Bruno G.41%
  11. K. Havertz94%

Likely subs Dedić, S. Steur, W. Osula, B. Touré, N. Pope, F. Schär, D. Burn

Likely subs J.Timber, V. Gyökeres, N. Madueke, Merino, M. Dowman, C. Mosquera, Zubimendi

Doubts A. Elanga injured, S. Neave unavailable, E. Jaouen injured, L. Shahar unavailable, T. Livramento injured, J.Ramsey injured, N. Woltemade unavailable, A.Murphy unavailable

Doubts C. Tzolis injured, Hincapie injured, Martinelli unavailable, W. Saliba injured, G.Jesus unavailable, Fábio Vieira unavailable, R. Nelson unavailable, E. Nwaneri unavailable

Our call: 20% NEW · 24% draw · 56% ARS  ·  expected goals 0.98–1.79

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 10:57

The whole season

All 38 of Arsenal's league matches, what we said would happen, and – where it has been played – what actually did. We have called 6 of 7 of their decided matches so far. Rows marked projected are today's model looking ahead: they move every time the season is re-projected, so they are not frozen and are never graded. Everything else is the call we published before kick-off.

GWKick-offOpponentWinDrawLoseOur callResultCalled it?
1 Fri 21 Aug, 20:00 Coventry City (H) 75% 16% 9% WinConfidence: Very strong 3–0
2 Mon 31 Aug, 20:00 Aston Villa (A) 47% 26% 27% WinConfidence: Slight 1–0
3 Sun 6 Sept, 16:30 Chelsea (H) 64% 22% 15% WinConfidence: Strong 2–1
4 Sat 12 Sept, 20:00 Sunderland (A) 62% 22% 16% WinConfidence: Strong 2–0
5 Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 Brighton & Hove Albion (A) 53% 23% 24% WinConfidence: Fair 0–3
6 Sat 10 Oct, 12:30 Leeds United (H) 70% 19% 11% WinConfidence: Very strong 2–1
7 Sun 18 Oct, 16:30 Nottingham Forest (A) 63% 21% 16% WinConfidence: Strong 1–0
8 Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 Everton (H) 68% 19% 13% WinConfidence: Very strong –
9 Sun 1 Nov, 16:30 Liverpool (A) 46% 26% 29% WinConfidence: Slight –
10 Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 Hull City (H) 82% 12% 5% WinConfidence: Very strong –
11 Sat 21 Nov, 17:30 Newcastle United (A) 56% 24% 20% WinConfidence: Fair –
12 Sun 29 Nov, 16:30 Manchester City (H) 47% 25% 27% WinProjected: Slight –
13 Wed 2 Dec, 20:00 Brentford (A) 56% 24% 20% WinProjected: Fair –
14 Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 Tottenham Hotspur (A) 65% 21% 14% WinProjected: Strong –
15 Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 Bournemouth (H) 62% 22% 16% WinProjected: Strong –
16 Sat 19 Dec, 15:00 Manchester United (H) 60% 22% 18% WinProjected: Strong –
17 Sun 27 Dec, 19:00 Crystal Palace (A) 64% 21% 15% WinProjected: Strong –
18 Wed 30 Dec, 19:30 Fulham (A) 57% 24% 19% WinProjected: Strong –
19 Sat 2 Jan, 15:00 Ipswich Town (H) 82% 12% 6% WinProjected: Very strong –
20 Tue 5 Jan, 19:30 Brentford (H) 69% 19% 12% WinProjected: Very strong –
21 Sat 16 Jan, 15:00 Hull City (A) 70% 19% 11% WinProjected: Very strong –
22 Sat 23 Jan, 15:00 Newcastle United (H) 69% 19% 12% WinProjected: Very strong –
23 Sat 30 Jan, 15:00 Manchester City (A) 35% 26% 39% LoseProjected: Knife-edge –
24 Sat 6 Feb, 15:00 Liverpool (H) 56% 24% 20% WinProjected: Fair –
25 Wed 10 Feb, 20:00 Ipswich Town (A) 72% 18% 10% WinProjected: Very strong –
26 Sat 20 Feb, 15:00 Fulham (H) 69% 19% 12% WinProjected: Very strong –
27 Sat 27 Feb, 15:00 Manchester United (A) 47% 25% 27% WinProjected: Slight –
28 Wed 3 Mar, 20:00 Crystal Palace (H) 76% 16% 8% WinProjected: Very strong –
29 Sat 13 Mar, 15:00 Chelsea (A) 51% 25% 24% WinProjected: Fair –
30 Sat 20 Mar, 15:00 Sunderland (H) 75% 16% 9% WinProjected: Very strong –
31 Sat 10 Apr, 15:00 Coventry City (A) 68% 20% 13% WinProjected: Strong –
32 Sat 17 Apr, 15:00 Aston Villa (H) 62% 22% 16% WinProjected: Strong –
33 Sat 24 Apr, 15:00 Bournemouth (A) 49% 26% 26% WinProjected: Fair –
34 Sat 1 May, 15:00 Tottenham Hotspur (H) 76% 16% 8% WinProjected: Very strong –
35 Sat 8 May, 15:00 Leeds United (A) 59% 23% 17% WinProjected: Strong –
36 Sat 15 May, 15:00 Nottingham Forest (H) 71% 18% 11% WinProjected: Very strong –
37 Sun 23 May, 15:00 Everton (A) 56% 24% 20% WinProjected: Fair –
38 Sun 30 May, 16:00 Brighton & Hove Albion (H) 61% 23% 17% WinProjected: Strong –

Called the winner Called it wrong Drawn – no winner to call