Which Team Will Win?

Arsenal

Every published prediction involving Arsenal, newest first, frozen at kick-off as always.

Projected league position, week by week

If the season plays out as the model expects, Arsenal finish 1st on about 78 points. Every other club is drawn faintly for context.

1st 4th 10th 17th 20th 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Gameweek GW 1 · 1st 2 pts projected GW 2 · 3rd 4 pts projected GW 3 · 2nd 6 pts projected GW 4 · 1st 8 pts projected GW 5 · 2nd 10 pts projected GW 6 · 1st 12 pts projected GW 7 · 2nd 14 pts projected GW 8 · 1st 16 pts projected GW 9 · 2nd 18 pts projected GW 10 · 1st 21 pts projected GW 11 · 1st 22 pts projected GW 12 · 1st 24 pts projected GW 13 · 1st 26 pts projected GW 14 · 1st 28 pts projected GW 15 · 1st 30 pts projected GW 16 · 2nd 32 pts projected GW 17 · 2nd 34 pts projected GW 18 · 2nd 36 pts projected GW 19 · 2nd 39 pts projected GW 20 · 1st 41 pts projected GW 21 · 1st 43 pts projected GW 22 · 1st 46 pts projected GW 23 · 1st 47 pts projected GW 24 · 1st 49 pts projected GW 25 · 1st 51 pts projected GW 26 · 1st 53 pts projected GW 27 · 2nd 55 pts projected GW 28 · 1st 57 pts projected GW 29 · 2nd 59 pts projected GW 30 · 1st 61 pts projected GW 31 · 1st 64 pts projected GW 32 · 1st 66 pts projected GW 33 · 1st 67 pts projected GW 34 · 1st 70 pts projected GW 35 · 1st 72 pts projected GW 36 · 2nd 74 pts projected GW 37 · 2nd 76 pts projected GW 38 · 1st 78 pts projected

Against pre-season expectations

Once Arsenal have played a few matches, this chart will track where they actually are against where we projected them before a ball was kicked — green when they are running ahead of it, red when they are behind.

Next up

Arsenal vs. Coventry City

Friday 21st August 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 1

whichteamwillwin.com

Arsenal win

◀ Arsenal win Coventry win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 15%

Confidence: Very strong

More statsLess
Arsenal crest
ARS COV 2.64 0.79 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1744 Weak 1430 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 3.02 2.98 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.05 1.49 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 76% 70% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 0.62 0.00 Availability This eleven against the usual one
Coventry City crest

The key stat: Elo performance. This is the widest gap between them. Arsenal lead it, Exceptional to Weak. In matches like this, the side carrying the stronger record usually wins — about 76% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callArsenal to win: 76% against 9%, with the draw at 15%. Confidence very strong.
  • For ArsenalGoals 2.64 v 0.79 (decisive); Elo performance 1744 v 1430 (decisive); Availability 0.62 v 0.00 (decisive).
  • For Coventry CityNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormArsenal W-W-W-W-W. Coventry City have no Premier League record.

NB Coventry City came up from the Championship, and we hold no Championship results, so their half of this comparison rests on the players rather than on past results. The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Arsenal 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Coventry City 4-3-3

Provisional starting XI

  1. Raya98%
  2. Calafiori92%
  3. Gabriel83%
  4. White75%
  5. Mosquera62%
  6. Rice98%
  7. Saka77%
  8. Eze75%
  9. Bruno G.NEW73%
  10. Ødegaard62%
  11. Havertz60%
  1. Rushworth
  2. Thomas
  3. Kitching
  4. van Ewijk
  5. Dasilva
  6. Mason-Clark
  7. Torp
  8. Tchaouna
  9. Awoniyi
  10. Thomas-Asante
  11. Simms

Likely subs Arrizabalaga, Meslier, Hincapie, Lewis-Skelly, Madueke, Zubimendi, Gyökeres

Likely subs Hamer, Onyeka, Rudoni, Kesler-Hayden, Grimes, Wilson, Bidwell

Doubts Saliba injured, Bruno G. doubtful, J.Timber injured

Doubts Wright injured, Markelo unavailable, Bassette unavailable

Our call: 76% ARS · 15% draw · 9% COV  ·  expected goals 2.64–0.79

Last updated today at 09:41

Aston Villa vs. Arsenal

Monday 31st August 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 2

whichteamwillwin.com

Arsenal win

◀ Aston Villa win Arsenal win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 25%

Confidence: Slight

More statsLess
Aston Villa crest
AVL ARS L-L-D-W-W W-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) 0.20 1.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) L-W-W-L-W W-W-L-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.20 1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.28 1.66 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.20 3.02 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 63% 76% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Strong 1616 Exceptional 1744 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.38 1.05 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.38 1.74 Attack Goals and expected goals per game
Arsenal crest

The key stat: XI attacking output. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Arsenal come out on top, 3.02 against 2.20. When this gap appears, whoever fielded the greater attacking threat tends to win, in around 73% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callArsenal to win: 46% against 29%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence slight.
  • For ArsenalGK save rate 76% v 63% (decisive); XI defensive record 1.05 v 1.38 (clear); XI attacking output 3.02 v 2.20 (clear).
  • For Aston VillaPossession 50% v 50% (marginal).
  • FormAston Villa L-L-D-W-W, Arsenal W-W-W-W-W.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Arsenal 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Martinez98%
  2. Konsa98%
  3. Mings98%
  4. Lindelöf95%
  5. Cash82%
  6. Kamara98%
  7. Bogarde78%
  8. McGinn78%
  9. Barkley63%
  10. Buendía60%
  11. Watkins81%
  1. Raya98%
  2. Calafiori92%
  3. Gabriel83%
  4. White75%
  5. Mosquera62%
  6. Rice98%
  7. Saka77%
  8. Eze75%
  9. Bruno G.NEW73%
  10. Ødegaard62%
  11. Havertz60%

Likely subs M.Bizot, Pau, Maatsen, Bailey, A.García, Abraham, Garnacho

Likely subs Arrizabalaga, Meslier, Hincapie, Lewis-Skelly, Madueke, Zubimendi, Gyökeres

Doubts Gomes injured, Onana injured, Digne unavailable, Abraham doubtful, Nedeljkovic unavailable, Manzambi injured, Madjo injured, Iling Jr unavailable

Doubts Saliba injured, Bruno G. doubtful, J.Timber injured

Our call: 29% AVL · 25% draw · 46% ARS  ·  expected goals 1.28–1.66

Last updated 19 Aug at 12:28

The road ahead

The rest of Arsenal's next 20 fixtures. These are projections from today's model, refreshed each time the season is re-projected — unlike the published predictions above, they are not frozen and do not count towards the track record.

Kick-offGWOpponentWinDrawLoseOur call
Sun 6 Sept, 16:30 3 Chelsea (H) 63% 21% 16% Win 63%
Sat 12 Sept, 20:00 4 Sunderland (A) 58% 23% 19% Win 58%
Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 5 Brighton & Hove Albion (A) 50% 24% 26% Win 50%
Sat 10 Oct, 12:30 6 Leeds United (H) 70% 18% 12% Win 70%
Sun 18 Oct, 16:30 7 Nottingham Forest (A) 56% 23% 21% Win 56%
Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 8 Everton (H) 68% 19% 13% Win 68%
Sun 1 Nov, 16:30 9 Liverpool (A) 43% 25% 32% Win 43%
Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 10 Hull City (H) 88% 9% 4% Win 88%
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 11 Newcastle United (A) 54% 23% 22% Win 54%
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 12 Manchester City (H) 46% 24% 31% Win 46%
Wed 2 Dec, 20:00 13 Brentford (A) 58% 23% 19% Win 58%
Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 14 Tottenham Hotspur (A) 61% 22% 17% Win 61%
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 15 Bournemouth (H) 64% 21% 15% Win 64%
Sat 19 Dec, 15:00 16 Manchester United (H) 57% 22% 21% Win 57%
Sat 26 Dec, 15:00 17 Crystal Palace (A) 58% 22% 19% Win 58%
Wed 30 Dec, 20:00 18 Fulham (A) 55% 24% 21% Win 55%
Sat 2 Jan, 15:00 19 Ipswich Town (H) 85% 10% 4% Win 85%
Wed 6 Jan, 20:00 20 Brentford (H) 71% 18% 11% Win 71%