Which Team Will Win?

Newcastle United vs. Arsenal

Saturday 21st November 2026 (Kick Off: 17:30) · Gameweek 11

whichteamwillwin.com

Arsenal win

Newcastle United crest
◀ Newcastle win Arsenal win ▶ 24% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Arsenal crest

Confidence: Fair

MoreLess
NEW ARS D-L-W-L-L W-W-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches -1.20 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-D-W-L W-W-W-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 0.98 1.79 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Above average 1529 Exceptional 1757 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 65% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.51 0.71 Defence Conceded per game 2.34 2.81 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.55 0.95 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 4.3 4.9 Exp: Shots on target Per game NEW ARS D-L-W-L-L W-W-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches -1.20 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-D-W-L W-W-W-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 0.98 1.79 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Above average 1529 Exceptional 1757 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 65% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.51 0.71 Defence Conceded per game 2.34 2.81 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.55 0.95 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 4.3 4.9 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: Elo performance. No other measure separates them as clearly. Arsenal lead it, Exceptional to Above average. the better-rated side normally comes out on top here – 75% of the time in recent seasons. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callArsenal to win: 56% against 20%, with the draw at 24%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, the defence in front of them and recent shots on target – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For ArsenalXI defensive record 0.95 v 1.55 (decisive); Elo performance 1757 v 1529 (decisive); GK save rate 75% v 65% (decisive).
  • For Newcastle UnitedNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormNewcastle United D-L-W-L-L, Arsenal W-W-L-W-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailableArsenal 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Arsenal 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

21 Horníček 3 L. Hall 12 M. Thiaw 4 S. Botman 11 H. Barnes 67 L.Miley 28 J. Willock 6 N.Gonzalez 23 J.Murphy 9 Y. Wissa 20 M. Fernandez-Pardo
1 Raya 6 Gabriel 15 Konsa 33 R. Calafiori 4 B. White 7 B. Saka 41 D. Rice 8 M. Ødegaard 49 Lewis-Skelly 39 Bruno G. 29 K. Havertz
  1. Horníček98%
  2. L. Hall98%
  3. M. Thiaw98%
  4. S. Botman98%
  5. H. Barnes98%
  6. L.Miley94%
  7. J. Willock74%
  8. N.Gonzalez72%
  9. J.Murphy55%
  10. Y. Wissa98%
  11. M. Fernandez-Pardo75%
  1. Raya98%
  2. Gabriel98%
  3. Konsa98%
  4. R. Calafiori97%
  5. B. White71%
  6. B. Saka98%
  7. D. Rice98%
  8. M. Ødegaard97%
  9. M. Lewis-Skelly51%
  10. Bruno G.41%
  11. K. Havertz94%

Likely subs Dedić, S. Steur, W. Osula, B. Touré, N. Pope, F. Schär, D. Burn

Likely subs J.Timber, V. Gyökeres, N. Madueke, Merino, M. Dowman, C. Mosquera, Zubimendi

Doubts A. Elanga injured, S. Neave unavailable, E. Jaouen injured, L. Shahar unavailable, T. Livramento injured, J.Ramsey injured, N. Woltemade unavailable, A.Murphy unavailable

Doubts C. Tzolis injured, Hincapie injured, Martinelli unavailable, W. Saliba injured, G.Jesus unavailable, Fábio Vieira unavailable, R. Nelson unavailable, E. Nwaneri unavailable

Our call: 20% NEW · 24% draw · 56% ARS  ·  expected goals 0.98–1.79

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ NewcastleArsenal ▸Goals
Long-run strength 0.94
Home advantage 0.27
Defence 0.08
Shots on target 0.06
XI attacking output 0.04
XI defensive record 0.04
Everything else 0.08
Arsenal ahead by 0.81

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Arsenal come out 0.81 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Arsenal goals Newcastle goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Newcastle 0–0 Arsenal: 7% Newcastle 0–1 Arsenal: 11% Newcastle 0–2 Arsenal: 10% Newcastle 0–3 Arsenal: 6% Newcastle 0–4 Arsenal: 3% Newcastle 0–5 Arsenal: <1% Newcastle 0–6 Arsenal: <1% Newcastle 1–0 Arsenal: 6% Newcastle 1–1 Arsenal: 11% Newcastle 1–2 Arsenal: 10% Newcastle 1–3 Arsenal: 6% Newcastle 1–4 Arsenal: 3% Newcastle 1–5 Arsenal: <1% Newcastle 1–6 Arsenal: <1% Newcastle 2–0 Arsenal: 3% Newcastle 2–1 Arsenal: 5% Newcastle 2–2 Arsenal: 5% Newcastle 2–3 Arsenal: 3% Newcastle 2–4 Arsenal: 1% Newcastle 2–5 Arsenal: <1% Newcastle 2–6 Arsenal: <1% Newcastle 3–0 Arsenal: <1% Newcastle 3–1 Arsenal: 2% Newcastle 3–2 Arsenal: 2% Newcastle 3–3 Arsenal: <1% Newcastle 3–4 Arsenal: <1% Newcastle 3–5 Arsenal: <1% Newcastle 4–0 Arsenal: <1% Newcastle 4–1 Arsenal: <1% Newcastle 4–2 Arsenal: <1% Newcastle 4–3 Arsenal: <1% Newcastle 4–4 Arsenal: <1% Newcastle 5–1 Arsenal: <1% Newcastle 5–2 Arsenal: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Newcastle win, above it Arsenal do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →