Which Team Will Win?

Arsenal vs. Everton

Saturday 24th October 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 8

whichteamwillwin.com

Arsenal win

Arsenal crest
◀ Arsenal win Everton win ▶ 19% draw chance bookmakers
Everton crest

Confidence: Very strong

MoreLess
ARS EVE W-W-L-W-W D-D-W-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-W-W-W D-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.80 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 57% 43% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 2.18 0.83 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1757 Above average 1526 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 0.95 1.36 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 0.71 1.45 Defence Conceded per game 2.81 2.27 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 75% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ARS EVE W-W-L-W-W D-D-W-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-W-W-W D-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.80 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 57% 43% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 2.18 0.83 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1757 Above average 1526 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 0.95 1.36 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 0.71 1.45 Defence Conceded per game 2.81 2.27 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 75% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved

The key stat: Elo performance. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. It goes to Arsenal: Exceptional to Above average. When this gap appears, the side carrying the stronger record tends to win, in around 75% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callArsenal to win: 68% against 13%, with the draw at 19%. Confidence very strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and the defence in front of them – the strongest pull the other way is a cup tie in the other side's legs.
  • For ArsenalHome and away form W-W-W-W-W v D-L-D-D-D (decisive); Elo performance 1757 v 1526 (decisive); Goals 2.18 v 0.83 (decisive).
  • For EvertonNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormArsenal W-W-L-W-W, Everton D-D-W-D-L.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Arsenal 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailableEverton 4-2-3-1 expected · 3 unavailable Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Arsenal 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Everton 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 Raya 6 Gabriel 15 Konsa 33 R. Calafiori 4 B. White 7 B. Saka 41 D. Rice 8 M. Ødegaard 49 Lewis-Skelly 39 Bruno G. 29 K. Havertz
1 J. Pickford 6 J. Tarkowski 4 Branthwaite 16 V. Mykolenko 2 Maitland-Niles 8 K. Dewsbury-Hall 37 J. Garner 45 H. Armstrong 22 B. Johnson 10 J. Grealish 11 T. Barry
  1. Raya98%
  2. Gabriel98%
  3. Konsa98%
  4. R. Calafiori97%
  5. B. White71%
  6. B. Saka98%
  7. D. Rice98%
  8. M. Ødegaard97%
  9. M. Lewis-Skelly51%
  10. Bruno G.41%
  11. K. Havertz94%
  1. J. Pickford98%
  2. J. Tarkowski98%
  3. J. Branthwaite98%
  4. V. Mykolenko80%
  5. A. Maitland-Niles75%
  6. K. Dewsbury-Hall98%
  7. J. Garner98%
  8. H. Armstrong98%
  9. B. Johnson72%
  10. J. Grealish62%
  11. T. Barry98%

Likely subs J.Timber, V. Gyökeres, N. Madueke, Merino, M. Dowman, C. Mosquera, Zubimendi

Likely subs T. George, M. Röhl, M. Travers, H. Hackney, T. Dibling, Alcaraz, C. Nørgaard

Doubts C. Tzolis injured, Hincapie injured, Martinelli unavailable, W. Saliba injured, G.Jesus unavailable, Fábio Vieira unavailable, R. Nelson unavailable, E. Nwaneri unavailable

Doubts A. Aznou unavailable, Beto unavailable, N. Patterson unavailable

Our call: 68% ARS · 19% draw · 13% EVE  ·  bookmakers: 68% / 21% / 12%  ·  expected goals 2.18–0.83

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ ArsenalEverton ▸Goals
Long-run strength 0.99
Home advantage 0.28
Cup match in the week 0.17
Defence 0.08
XI attacking output 0.05
Shots on target 0.04
Everything else 0.09
Arsenal ahead by 1.35

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Arsenal come out 1.35 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 2–0

Everton goals Arsenal goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Arsenal 0–0 Everton: 5% Arsenal 0–1 Everton: 4% Arsenal 0–2 Everton: 2% Arsenal 0–3 Everton: <1% Arsenal 0–4 Everton: <1% Arsenal 1–0 Everton: 11% Arsenal 1–1 Everton: 9% Arsenal 1–2 Everton: 4% Arsenal 1–3 Everton: 1% Arsenal 1–4 Everton: <1% Arsenal 2–0 Everton: 12% Arsenal 2–1 Everton: 10% Arsenal 2–2 Everton: 4% Arsenal 2–3 Everton: 1% Arsenal 2–4 Everton: <1% Arsenal 3–0 Everton: 9% Arsenal 3–1 Everton: 7% Arsenal 3–2 Everton: 3% Arsenal 3–3 Everton: <1% Arsenal 3–4 Everton: <1% Arsenal 4–0 Everton: 5% Arsenal 4–1 Everton: 4% Arsenal 4–2 Everton: 2% Arsenal 4–3 Everton: <1% Arsenal 4–4 Everton: <1% Arsenal 5–0 Everton: 2% Arsenal 5–1 Everton: 2% Arsenal 5–2 Everton: <1% Arsenal 5–3 Everton: <1% Arsenal 6–0 Everton: <1% Arsenal 6–1 Everton: <1% Arsenal 6–2 Everton: <1% Arsenal 6–3 Everton: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Arsenal win, above it Everton do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →