Which Team Will Win?

Nottingham Forest 0–1 Arsenal

Sunday 18th October 2026 (Kick Off: 16:30) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

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Arsenal win

0–1Full time

Nottingham Forest crest
◀ Forest win Arsenal win ▶ 21% draw chance bookmakers
Arsenal crest

Confidence: Strong

NFO ARS D-D-W-L-L W-W-W-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.40 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-L-D-L W-W-W-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 43% 57% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 0.89 2.01 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Average 1506 Exceptional 1752 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.80 1.88 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 2.37 3.10 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.52 0.83 Defence Conceded per game 70% 76% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.2 5.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game NFO ARS D-D-W-L-L W-W-W-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.40 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-L-D-L W-W-W-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 43% 57% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 0.89 2.01 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Average 1506 Exceptional 1752 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.80 1.88 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 2.37 3.10 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.52 0.83 Defence Conceded per game 70% 76% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.2 5.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: Elo performance. No other measure separates them as clearly. Arsenal lead it, Exceptional to Average. the better-rated side normally comes out on top here – 75% of the time in recent seasons. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callArsenal to win: 63% against 16%, with the draw at 21%. Confidence strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and the defence in front of them – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For ArsenalHome and away form W-W-W-W-L v D-D-L-D-L (decisive); Elo performance 1752 v 1506 (decisive); Possession 57% v 43% (decisive).
  • For Nottingham ForestNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormNottingham Forest D-D-W-L-L, Arsenal W-W-W-L-W.
Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1 confirmedArsenal 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

Arsenal 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

26 M. Sels 5 Murillo 2 O. Diomande 23 Jair Cunha 3 N. Williams 8 N. Domínguez 21 X. Schlager 27 D. Muñoz 14 D. Ndoye 24 J. McAtee 19 L. Delap
1 David Raya 33 R. Calafiori 6 Gabriel Magalhães 15 E. Konsa 4 B. White 39 Bruno Guimarães 41 D. Rice 10 E. Eze 8 M. Ødegaard 7 B. Saka 29 K. Havertz
  1. M. Sels
  2. Murillo
  3. O. Diomande
  4. Jair Cunha
  5. N. Williams
  6. N. Domínguez
  7. X. Schlager
  8. D. Muñoz
  9. D. Ndoye
  10. J. McAtee
  11. L. Delap
  1. David Raya
  2. R. Calafiori
  3. Gabriel Magalhães
  4. E. Konsa
  5. B. White
  6. Bruno Guimarães
  7. D. Rice
  8. E. Eze
  9. M. Ødegaard
  10. B. Saka
  11. K. Havertz

Substitutes O. Aina, C. Hudson-Odoi, A. Kalimuendo, John Victor, N. Milenković, L. Netz, I. Sangaré, C. Wood, R. Yates

Substitutes M. Dowman, V. Gyökeres, M. Lewis-Skelly, N. Madueke, Mikel Merino, I. Meslier, Cristhian Mosquera, J. Timber, Martín Zubimendi

Our call: 16% NFO · 21% draw · 63% ARS  ·  bookmakers: 17% / 25% / 59%  ·  expected goals 0.89–2.01

Last updated 18 Oct at 15:46

What separates them

Reason◂ ForestArsenal ▸Goals
Long-run strength 1.04
Home advantage 0.28
Shots on target 0.12
Defence 0.07
XI attacking output 0.06
XI strength vs usual 0.04
Everything else 0.06
Arsenal ahead by 1.12

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Arsenal come out 1.12 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 0–2

Arsenal goals Forest goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Forest 0–0 Arsenal: 6% Forest 0–1 Arsenal: 11% Forest 0–2 Arsenal: 11% Forest 0–3 Arsenal: 7% Forest 0–4 Arsenal: 4% Forest 0–5 Arsenal: 1% Forest 0–6 Arsenal: <1% Forest 1–0 Arsenal: 5% Forest 1–1 Arsenal: 10% Forest 1–2 Arsenal: 10% Forest 1–3 Arsenal: 7% Forest 1–4 Arsenal: 3% Forest 1–5 Arsenal: 1% Forest 1–6 Arsenal: <1% Forest 2–0 Arsenal: 2% Forest 2–1 Arsenal: 4% Forest 2–2 Arsenal: 4% Forest 2–3 Arsenal: 3% Forest 2–4 Arsenal: 1% Forest 2–5 Arsenal: <1% Forest 2–6 Arsenal: <1% Forest 3–0 Arsenal: <1% Forest 3–1 Arsenal: 1% Forest 3–2 Arsenal: 1% Forest 3–3 Arsenal: <1% Forest 3–4 Arsenal: <1% Forest 3–5 Arsenal: <1% Forest 3–6 Arsenal: <1% Forest 4–0 Arsenal: <1% Forest 4–1 Arsenal: <1% Forest 4–2 Arsenal: <1% Forest 4–3 Arsenal: <1% Forest 4–4 Arsenal: <1% Forest 5–1 Arsenal: <1% Forest 5–2 Arsenal: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Forest win, above it Arsenal do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →