Which Team Will Win?

Liverpool vs. Arsenal

Sunday 1st November 2026 (Kick Off: 16:30) · Gameweek 9

whichteamwillwin.com

Arsenal win

Liverpool crest
◀ Liverpool win Arsenal win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Arsenal crest

Confidence: Slight

MoreLess
LIV ARS W-D-W-L-W W-W-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-D-D-L W-W-W-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.18 1.55 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.45 2.81 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 68% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.16 0.71 Defence Conceded per game 1.22 0.95 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.60 1.68 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Very strong 1641 Exceptional 1757 Elo performance 1500 is average LIV ARS W-D-W-L-W W-W-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-D-D-L W-W-W-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.18 1.55 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.45 2.81 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 68% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.16 0.71 Defence Conceded per game 1.22 0.95 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.60 1.68 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Very strong 1641 Exceptional 1757 Elo performance 1500 is average

The key stat: XI attacking output. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. Arsenal lead it, 2.81 to 2.45. Historically, the side naming the more potent eleven takes these roughly 70% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callArsenal to win: 46% against 29%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, a cup tie in the other side's legs and the defence in front of them – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For ArsenalHome and away form W-W-W-L-W v D-D-D-D-L (decisive); GK save rate 75% v 68% (clear); XI defensive record 0.95 v 1.22 (useful).
  • For LiverpoolNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormLiverpool W-D-W-L-W, Arsenal W-W-L-W-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Liverpool 4-2-3-1 expected · 11 unavailableArsenal 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Liverpool 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Arsenal 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 A.Becker 4 Virgil 5 J. Jacquet 33 R. Araujo 6 M. Kerkez 7 F. Wirtz 10 A. Mac Allister 29 B. Barcola 23 V. Munoz 18 C. Gakpo 9 A. Isak
1 Raya 6 Gabriel 15 Konsa 33 R. Calafiori 4 B. White 7 B. Saka 41 D. Rice 8 M. Ødegaard 49 Lewis-Skelly 39 Bruno G. 29 K. Havertz
  1. A.Becker98%
  2. Virgil98%
  3. J. Jacquet98%
  4. R. Araujo93%
  5. M. Kerkez84%
  6. F. Wirtz96%
  7. A. Mac Allister82%
  8. B. Barcola79%
  9. V. Munoz75%
  10. C. Gakpo43%
  11. A. Isak76%
  1. Raya98%
  2. Gabriel98%
  3. Konsa98%
  4. R. Calafiori97%
  5. B. White71%
  6. B. Saka98%
  7. D. Rice98%
  8. M. Ødegaard97%
  9. M. Lewis-Skelly51%
  10. Bruno G.41%
  11. K. Havertz94%

Likely subs R. Gravenberch, R. Ngumoha, L. Koumas, J. Gomez, K. Tsimikas, Endo, G. Mamardashvili

Likely subs J.Timber, V. Gyökeres, N. Madueke, Merino, M. Dowman, C. Mosquera, Zubimendi

Doubts D. Szoboszlai injured, A. Pecsi unavailable, J. Frimpong injured, V. Jaros injured, G. Leoni injured, C. Ramsay unavailable, H. Ekitiké injured, C.Jones unavailable

Doubts C. Tzolis injured, Hincapie injured, Martinelli unavailable, W. Saliba injured, G.Jesus unavailable, Fábio Vieira unavailable, R. Nelson unavailable, E. Nwaneri unavailable

Our call: 29% LIV · 26% draw · 46% ARS  ·  bookmakers: 29% / 26% / 44%  ·  expected goals 1.18–1.55

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ LiverpoolArsenal ▸Goals
Long-run strength 0.48
Home advantage 0.27
Cup match in the week 0.17
Defence 0.05
XI attacking output 0.03
Shots on target 0.02
Everything else 0.06
Arsenal ahead by 0.37

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Arsenal come out 0.37 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Arsenal goals Liverpool goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Liverpool 0–0 Arsenal: 7% Liverpool 0–1 Arsenal: 10% Liverpool 0–2 Arsenal: 8% Liverpool 0–3 Arsenal: 4% Liverpool 0–4 Arsenal: 2% Liverpool 0–5 Arsenal: <1% Liverpool 0–6 Arsenal: <1% Liverpool 1–0 Arsenal: 7% Liverpool 1–1 Arsenal: 12% Liverpool 1–2 Arsenal: 9% Liverpool 1–3 Arsenal: 5% Liverpool 1–4 Arsenal: 2% Liverpool 1–5 Arsenal: <1% Liverpool 1–6 Arsenal: <1% Liverpool 2–0 Arsenal: 5% Liverpool 2–1 Arsenal: 7% Liverpool 2–2 Arsenal: 5% Liverpool 2–3 Arsenal: 3% Liverpool 2–4 Arsenal: 1% Liverpool 2–5 Arsenal: <1% Liverpool 2–6 Arsenal: <1% Liverpool 3–0 Arsenal: 2% Liverpool 3–1 Arsenal: 3% Liverpool 3–2 Arsenal: 2% Liverpool 3–3 Arsenal: 1% Liverpool 3–4 Arsenal: <1% Liverpool 3–5 Arsenal: <1% Liverpool 4–0 Arsenal: <1% Liverpool 4–1 Arsenal: <1% Liverpool 4–2 Arsenal: <1% Liverpool 4–3 Arsenal: <1% Liverpool 4–4 Arsenal: <1% Liverpool 5–0 Arsenal: <1% Liverpool 5–1 Arsenal: <1% Liverpool 5–2 Arsenal: <1% Liverpool 5–3 Arsenal: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Liverpool win, above it Arsenal do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →