Which Team Will Win?

Arsenal vs. Hull City

Saturday 7th November 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 10

whichteamwillwin.com

Arsenal win

Arsenal crest
◀ Arsenal win Hull City win ▶ 12% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Hull City crest

Confidence: Very strong

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ARS HUL W-W-L-W-W D-D-L-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-W-W-W L-W-D-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.80 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 2.77 0.60 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1757 Weak 1423 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 75% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 0.71 1.95 Defence Conceded per game 2.81 1.62 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 0.95 1.48 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.68 0.83 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ARS HUL W-W-L-W-W D-D-L-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-W-W-W L-W-D-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.80 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 2.77 0.60 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1757 Weak 1423 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 75% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 0.71 1.95 Defence Conceded per game 2.81 1.62 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 0.95 1.48 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.68 0.83 Attack Goals and expected goals per game

The key stat: Elo performance. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Arsenal come out on top, Exceptional against Weak. When this gap appears, the side carrying the stronger record tends to win, in around 75% of cases. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callArsenal to win: 82% against 5%, with the draw at 12%. Confidence very strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and the defence in front of them.
  • For ArsenalHome and away form W-W-W-W-W v L-W-D-L-L (decisive); Goal difference at this venue 1.80 v -1.00 (decisive); Goals 2.77 v 0.60 (decisive).
  • For Hull CityGK save rate 75% v 75% (marginal).
  • FormArsenal W-W-L-W-W, Hull City D-D-L-D-L.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Arsenal 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailableHull City 5-4-1 expected · 18 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Arsenal 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Hull City 5-4-1

Expected starting XI

1 Raya 6 Gabriel 15 Konsa 33 R. Calafiori 4 B. White 7 B. Saka 41 D. Rice 8 M. Ødegaard 49 Lewis-Skelly 39 Bruno G. 29 K. Havertz
19 K. Tzolakis 6 S. Ajayi 15 J. Egan 2 L. Coyle 3 R. Giles 22 Herrington 27 R. Slater 10 M. Belloumi 25 M. Crooks 7 S. Thomas 9 O. McBurnie
  1. Raya98%
  2. Gabriel98%
  3. Konsa98%
  4. R. Calafiori97%
  5. B. White71%
  6. B. Saka98%
  7. D. Rice98%
  8. M. Ødegaard97%
  9. M. Lewis-Skelly51%
  10. Bruno G.41%
  11. K. Havertz94%
  1. K. Tzolakis98%
  2. S. Ajayi98%
  3. J. Egan98%
  4. L. Coyle97%
  5. R. Giles80%
  6. L. Herrington40%
  7. R. Slater96%
  8. M. Belloumi78%
  9. M. Crooks70%
  10. S. Thomas60%
  11. O. McBurnie98%

Likely subs J.Timber, V. Gyökeres, N. Madueke, Merino, M. Dowman, C. Mosquera, Zubimendi

Likely subs E. Stroud, C. Mouzakitis, D. Phillips, A. Ömür, C. McCarthy, T. Iroegbunam, J. Gelhardt

Doubts C. Tzolis injured, Hincapie injured, Martinelli unavailable, W. Saliba injured, G.Jesus unavailable, Fábio Vieira unavailable, R. Nelson unavailable, E. Nwaneri unavailable

Doubts N. Mendy injured, A. Kamara unavailable, J. Butland injured, D. Akintola unavailable, I. Ansah injured, M. Jacob unavailable, R. Vaz doubtful, L. Gourna-Douath injured

Our call: 82% ARS · 12% draw · 5% HUL  ·  expected goals 2.77–0.60

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ ArsenalHull City ▸Goals
Long-run strength 1.46
Home advantage 0.29
Defence 0.14
Shots on target 0.13
XI attacking output 0.11
XI defensive record 0.04
Everything else 0.01
Arsenal ahead by 2.17

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Arsenal come out 2.17 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 2–0

Hull City goals Arsenal goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Arsenal 0–0 Hull City: 4% Arsenal 0–1 Hull City: 2% Arsenal 0–2 Hull City: <1% Arsenal 0–3 Hull City: <1% Arsenal 1–0 Hull City: 9% Arsenal 1–1 Hull City: 6% Arsenal 1–2 Hull City: 2% Arsenal 1–3 Hull City: <1% Arsenal 1–4 Hull City: <1% Arsenal 2–0 Hull City: 13% Arsenal 2–1 Hull City: 8% Arsenal 2–2 Hull City: 2% Arsenal 2–3 Hull City: <1% Arsenal 2–4 Hull City: <1% Arsenal 3–0 Hull City: 12% Arsenal 3–1 Hull City: 7% Arsenal 3–2 Hull City: 2% Arsenal 3–3 Hull City: <1% Arsenal 3–4 Hull City: <1% Arsenal 4–0 Hull City: 8% Arsenal 4–1 Hull City: 5% Arsenal 4–2 Hull City: 2% Arsenal 4–3 Hull City: <1% Arsenal 5–0 Hull City: 5% Arsenal 5–1 Hull City: 3% Arsenal 5–2 Hull City: <1% Arsenal 5–3 Hull City: <1% Arsenal 6–0 Hull City: 2% Arsenal 6–1 Hull City: 1% Arsenal 6–2 Hull City: <1% Arsenal 6–3 Hull City: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Arsenal win, above it Hull City do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →