Which Team Will Win?

Manchester United vs. Aston Villa

Sunday 8th November 2026 (Kick Off: 16:30) · Gameweek 10

whichteamwillwin.com

Manchester United win

Manchester United crest
◀ Man United win Aston Villa win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Aston Villa crest

Confidence: Slight

MoreLess
MUN AVL D-L-D-D-D D-L-W-D-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.20 0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-W-L-D W-L-D-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 48% 52% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.54 1.25 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.82 2.05 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 70% 72% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.66 1.30 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 5.3 4.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.32 1.31 Defence Conceded per game MUN AVL D-L-D-D-D D-L-W-D-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.20 0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-W-L-D W-L-D-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 48% 52% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.54 1.25 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.82 2.05 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 70% 72% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.66 1.30 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 5.3 4.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.32 1.31 Defence Conceded per game

The key stat: XI attacking output. No other measure separates them as clearly. Manchester United lead it, 2.82 to 2.05. the side naming the more potent eleven normally comes out on top here – 72% of the time in recent seasons. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callManchester United to win: 44% against 30%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, recent shots on target and what this eleven creates – the strongest pull the other way is changes in the other camp.
  • For Manchester UnitedXI attacking output 2.82 v 2.05 (clear); Goal difference at this venue 0.80 v -0.20 (useful); Attack 1.66 v 1.30 (useful).
  • For Aston VillaPossession 52% v 48% (slight); Goal difference 0.20 v -0.20 (slight); GK save rate 72% v 70% (marginal).
  • FormManchester United D-L-D-D-D, Aston Villa D-L-W-D-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Manchester United 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable · 3 doubtfulAston Villa 4-2-3-1 expected · 9 unavailable · 3 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Manchester United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 S. Lammens 5 H. Maguire 2 Dalot 6 Martinez 23 L. Shaw 8 B.Fernandes 19 B. Mbeumo 18 Y. Tielemans 10 M. Cunha 37 K. Mainoo 9 M. Rashford
1 Z. Suzuki 3 V. Lindelöf 5 T. Mings 2 M. Cash 29 Wan-Bissaka 8 B. Kamara 10 Buendía 7 J. McGinn 35 J. Gomes 44 J. Manzambi 11 N.Jackson
  1. S. Lammens98%
  2. H. Maguire98%
  3. Dalot82%
  4. Martinez72%
  5. L. Shaw45%
  6. B.Fernandes98%
  7. B. Mbeumo98%
  8. Y. Tielemans94%
  9. M. Cunha79%
  10. K. Mainoo59%
  11. M. Rashford56%
  1. Z. Suzuki98%
  2. V. Lindelöf98%
  3. T. Mings86%
  4. M. Cash63%
  5. A. Wan-Bissaka44%
  6. B. Kamara98%
  7. Buendía92%
  8. J. McGinn83%
  9. J. Gomes58%
  10. J. Manzambi44%
  11. N.Jackson95%

Likely subs K. Darlow, L. Yoro, Amad, M. Mount, J. Zirkzee, M. De Ligt, S. Lacey

Likely subs R. Barkley, T. Harwood-Bellis, L. Goretzka, G. Hemmings, I. Mbaye, B. Madjo, L. Bogarde

Doubts Martinez doubtful, K. Mainoo doubtful, L. Shaw doubtful, P. Dorgu injured, T. Heaton injured, Šeško injured, Ugarte injured, T. Collyer unavailable

Doubts A. Wan-Bissaka doubtful, J. Manzambi doubtful, I. Maatsen injured, M. Ruggeri injured, G. Hemmings doubtful, Iling Jr unavailable, L. Lynch unavailable, O. Watkins unavailable

Our call: 44% MUN · 26% draw · 30% AVL  ·  expected goals 1.54–1.25

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ Man UnitedAston Villa ▸Goals
Home advantage 0.28
Shots on target 0.10
XI attacking output 0.07
Settled eleven 0.04
Long-run strength 0.01
Everything else 0.12
Man United ahead by 0.29

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Man United come out 0.29 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Aston Villa goals Man United goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Man United 0–0 Aston Villa: 7% Man United 0–1 Aston Villa: 7% Man United 0–2 Aston Villa: 5% Man United 0–3 Aston Villa: 2% Man United 0–4 Aston Villa: <1% Man United 0–5 Aston Villa: <1% Man United 1–0 Aston Villa: 9% Man United 1–1 Aston Villa: 12% Man United 1–2 Aston Villa: 7% Man United 1–3 Aston Villa: 3% Man United 1–4 Aston Villa: <1% Man United 1–5 Aston Villa: <1% Man United 2–0 Aston Villa: 7% Man United 2–1 Aston Villa: 9% Man United 2–2 Aston Villa: 6% Man United 2–3 Aston Villa: 2% Man United 2–4 Aston Villa: <1% Man United 2–5 Aston Villa: <1% Man United 3–0 Aston Villa: 4% Man United 3–1 Aston Villa: 5% Man United 3–2 Aston Villa: 3% Man United 3–3 Aston Villa: 1% Man United 3–4 Aston Villa: <1% Man United 3–5 Aston Villa: <1% Man United 4–0 Aston Villa: 1% Man United 4–1 Aston Villa: 2% Man United 4–2 Aston Villa: 1% Man United 4–3 Aston Villa: <1% Man United 4–4 Aston Villa: <1% Man United 5–0 Aston Villa: <1% Man United 5–1 Aston Villa: <1% Man United 5–2 Aston Villa: <1% Man United 5–3 Aston Villa: <1% Man United 6–0 Aston Villa: <1% Man United 6–1 Aston Villa: <1% Man United 6–2 Aston Villa: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Man United win, above it Aston Villa do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →