Which Team Will Win?

Aston Villa vs. Fulham

Saturday 31st October 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 9

whichteamwillwin.com

Aston Villa win

Aston Villa crest
◀ Aston Villa win Fulham win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers
Fulham crest

Confidence: Fair

MoreLess
AVL FUL D-L-W-D-W L-D-D-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-L-L-D L-D-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 48% 52% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.72 1.11 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.36 1.25 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Strong 1598 Average 1501 Elo performance 1500 is average 72% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.05 2.68 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.30 1.50 Attack Goals and expected goals per game AVL FUL D-L-W-D-W L-D-D-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-L-L-D L-D-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 48% 52% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.72 1.11 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.36 1.25 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Strong 1598 Average 1501 Elo performance 1500 is average 72% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.05 2.68 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.30 1.50 Attack Goals and expected goals per game

The key stat: XI defensive record. This is the widest gap between them. Fulham lead it, 1.25 to 1.36. In matches like this, whoever fielded the more solid defence usually wins – about 74% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

Against the call – it favours Fulham; Aston Villa are tipped because they lead on the long-run strength gap and home advantage.

  • The callAston Villa to win: 51% against 24%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap and home advantage – the strongest pull the other way is what this eleven creates.
  • For Aston VillaElo performance 1598 v 1501 (useful); Goals 1.72 v 1.11 (useful); Goal difference at this venue -0.20 v -1.00 (useful).
  • For FulhamXI attacking output 2.68 v 2.05 (useful); Possession 52% v 48% (slight); XI defensive record 1.25 v 1.36 (slight).
  • FormAston Villa D-L-W-D-W, Fulham L-D-D-L-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1 expected · 9 unavailable · 3 doubtfulFulham 4-2-3-1 expected · 3 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Fulham 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 Z. Suzuki 3 V. Lindelöf 5 T. Mings 2 M. Cash 29 Wan-Bissaka 8 B. Kamara 10 Buendía 7 J. McGinn 35 J. Gomes 44 J. Manzambi 11 N.Jackson
1 B. Leno 3 C. Bassey 22 Affengruber 33 A. Robinson 21 T. Castagne 19 S. Charles 17 A. Iwobi 24 J. King 14 O. Bobb 16 S. Berge 7 Gonzalo
  1. Z. Suzuki98%
  2. V. Lindelöf98%
  3. T. Mings86%
  4. M. Cash63%
  5. A. Wan-Bissaka44%
  6. B. Kamara98%
  7. Buendía92%
  8. J. McGinn83%
  9. J. Gomes58%
  10. J. Manzambi44%
  11. N.Jackson95%
  1. B. Leno98%
  2. C. Bassey98%
  3. D. Affengruber80%
  4. A. Robinson79%
  5. T. Castagne78%
  6. S. Charles97%
  7. A. Iwobi96%
  8. J. King95%
  9. O. Bobb92%
  10. S. Berge81%
  11. Gonzalo97%

Likely subs R. Barkley, T. Harwood-Bellis, L. Goretzka, G. Hemmings, I. Mbaye, B. Madjo, L. Bogarde

Likely subs B. Lecomte, Muniz, C. Palacios, Kevin, J. Andersen, Ángel, T. Cairney

Doubts A. Wan-Bissaka doubtful, J. Manzambi doubtful, I. Maatsen injured, M. Ruggeri injured, G. Hemmings doubtful, Iling Jr unavailable, L. Lynch unavailable, O. Watkins unavailable

Doubts R. Sessegnon suspended, A. McNally unavailable, L. De Fougerolles unavailable, H. Larsson doubtful

Our call: 51% AVL · 25% draw · 24% FUL  ·  bookmakers: 47% / 26% / 27%  ·  expected goals 1.72–1.11

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 16:17 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ Aston VillaFulham ▸Goals
Long-run strength 0.41
Home advantage 0.28
XI attacking output 0.06
Settled eleven 0.01
Defence 0.01
Aston Villa ahead by 0.61

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Aston Villa come out 0.61 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Fulham goals Aston Villa goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Aston Villa 0–0 Fulham: 6% Aston Villa 0–1 Fulham: 6% Aston Villa 0–2 Fulham: 4% Aston Villa 0–3 Fulham: 1% Aston Villa 0–4 Fulham: <1% Aston Villa 0–5 Fulham: <1% Aston Villa 1–0 Fulham: 10% Aston Villa 1–1 Fulham: 12% Aston Villa 1–2 Fulham: 6% Aston Villa 1–3 Fulham: 2% Aston Villa 1–4 Fulham: <1% Aston Villa 1–5 Fulham: <1% Aston Villa 2–0 Fulham: 9% Aston Villa 2–1 Fulham: 10% Aston Villa 2–2 Fulham: 5% Aston Villa 2–3 Fulham: 2% Aston Villa 2–4 Fulham: <1% Aston Villa 2–5 Fulham: <1% Aston Villa 3–0 Fulham: 5% Aston Villa 3–1 Fulham: 6% Aston Villa 3–2 Fulham: 3% Aston Villa 3–3 Fulham: 1% Aston Villa 3–4 Fulham: <1% Aston Villa 3–5 Fulham: <1% Aston Villa 4–0 Fulham: 2% Aston Villa 4–1 Fulham: 2% Aston Villa 4–2 Fulham: 1% Aston Villa 4–3 Fulham: <1% Aston Villa 4–4 Fulham: <1% Aston Villa 5–0 Fulham: <1% Aston Villa 5–1 Fulham: <1% Aston Villa 5–2 Fulham: <1% Aston Villa 5–3 Fulham: <1% Aston Villa 6–0 Fulham: <1% Aston Villa 6–1 Fulham: <1% Aston Villa 6–2 Fulham: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Aston Villa win, above it Fulham do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →