Which Team Will Win?

Aston Villa vs. Sunderland

Saturday 21st November 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 11

whichteamwillwin.com

Aston Villa win

Aston Villa crest
◀ Aston Villa win Sunderland win ▶ 23% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Sunderland crest

Confidence: Strong

MoreLess
AVL SUN D-L-W-D-W D-L-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 -1.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-L-L-D W-L-D-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 52% 48% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.86 1.01 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Strong 1598 Below average 1470 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.36 1.65 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 72% 59% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.31 1.63 Defence Conceded per game 2.05 2.33 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven AVL SUN D-L-W-D-W D-L-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 -1.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-L-L-D W-L-D-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 52% 48% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.86 1.01 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Strong 1598 Below average 1470 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.36 1.65 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 72% 59% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.31 1.63 Defence Conceded per game 2.05 2.33 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven

The key stat: Elo performance. No other measure separates them as clearly. Aston Villa come out on top, Strong against Below average. the better-rated side normally comes out on top here – 75% of the time in recent seasons. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callAston Villa to win: 57% against 20%, with the draw at 23%. Confidence strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and changes in the other camp.
  • For Aston VillaGK save rate 72% v 59% (decisive); Goal difference 0.20 v -1.60 (decisive); XI defensive record 1.36 v 1.65 (clear).
  • For SunderlandXI attacking output 2.33 v 2.05 (slight).
  • FormAston Villa D-L-W-D-W, Sunderland D-L-L-L-L.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1 expected · 9 unavailable · 3 doubtfulSunderland 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable · 3 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Sunderland 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 Z. Suzuki 3 V. Lindelöf 5 T. Mings 2 M. Cash 29 Wan-Bissaka 8 B. Kamara 10 Buendía 7 J. McGinn 35 J. Gomes 44 J. Manzambi 11 N.Jackson
22 R. Roefs 20 N. Mukiele 17 Reinildo 12 T. Meunier 32 T. Hume 6 Methalie 28 E.Le Fée 34 G. Xhaka 27 N. Sadiki 10 N.Angulo 9 B. Brobbey
  1. Z. Suzuki98%
  2. V. Lindelöf98%
  3. T. Mings86%
  4. M. Cash63%
  5. A. Wan-Bissaka44%
  6. B. Kamara98%
  7. Buendía92%
  8. J. McGinn83%
  9. J. Gomes58%
  10. J. Manzambi44%
  11. N.Jackson95%
  1. R. Roefs98%
  2. N. Mukiele98%
  3. Reinildo78%
  4. T. Meunier53%
  5. T. Hume43%
  6. Methalie25%
  7. E.Le Fée98%
  8. G. Xhaka98%
  9. N. Sadiki96%
  10. N.Angulo71%
  11. B. Brobbey30%

Likely subs R. Barkley, T. Harwood-Bellis, L. Goretzka, G. Hemmings, I. Mbaye, B. Madjo, L. Bogarde

Likely subs M. Fofana, H. Diarra, C. Talbi, J. Ahoka, J.Angulo, M. Ellborg, L. O'Nien

Doubts A. Wan-Bissaka doubtful, J. Manzambi doubtful, I. Maatsen injured, M. Ruggeri injured, G. Hemmings doubtful, Iling Jr unavailable, L. Lynch unavailable, O. Watkins unavailable

Doubts K. Danso suspended, T. Meunier doubtful, B. Brobbey doubtful, D. Ballard injured, W. Isidor doubtful, L. Hjelde unavailable, J. Seelt unavailable, A. Patterson unavailable

Our call: 57% AVL · 23% draw · 20% SUN  ·  expected goals 1.86–1.01

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ Aston VillaSunderland ▸Goals
Long-run strength 0.54
Home advantage 0.28
Settled eleven 0.04
Defence 0.03
XI attacking output 0.02
XI defensive record 0.02
Everything else 0.04
Aston Villa ahead by 0.86

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Aston Villa come out 0.86 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Sunderland goals Aston Villa goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Aston Villa 0–0 Sunderland: 6% Aston Villa 0–1 Sunderland: 5% Aston Villa 0–2 Sunderland: 3% Aston Villa 0–3 Sunderland: <1% Aston Villa 0–4 Sunderland: <1% Aston Villa 1–0 Sunderland: 10% Aston Villa 1–1 Sunderland: 11% Aston Villa 1–2 Sunderland: 5% Aston Villa 1–3 Sunderland: 2% Aston Villa 1–4 Sunderland: <1% Aston Villa 1–5 Sunderland: <1% Aston Villa 2–0 Sunderland: 10% Aston Villa 2–1 Sunderland: 10% Aston Villa 2–2 Sunderland: 5% Aston Villa 2–3 Sunderland: 2% Aston Villa 2–4 Sunderland: <1% Aston Villa 2–5 Sunderland: <1% Aston Villa 3–0 Sunderland: 6% Aston Villa 3–1 Sunderland: 6% Aston Villa 3–2 Sunderland: 3% Aston Villa 3–3 Sunderland: 1% Aston Villa 3–4 Sunderland: <1% Aston Villa 3–5 Sunderland: <1% Aston Villa 4–0 Sunderland: 3% Aston Villa 4–1 Sunderland: 3% Aston Villa 4–2 Sunderland: 1% Aston Villa 4–3 Sunderland: <1% Aston Villa 4–4 Sunderland: <1% Aston Villa 5–0 Sunderland: 1% Aston Villa 5–1 Sunderland: 1% Aston Villa 5–2 Sunderland: <1% Aston Villa 5–3 Sunderland: <1% Aston Villa 6–0 Sunderland: <1% Aston Villa 6–1 Sunderland: <1% Aston Villa 6–2 Sunderland: <1% Aston Villa 6–3 Sunderland: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Aston Villa win, above it Sunderland do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →