Which Team Will Win?

Aston Villa vs. Manchester City

Saturday 24th October 2026 (Kick Off: 12:30) · Gameweek 8

whichteamwillwin.com

Manchester City win

Aston Villa crest
◀ Aston Villa win Man City win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers
Manchester City crest

Confidence: Slight

MoreLess
AVL MCI D-L-W-D-W W-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 1.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-L-L-D D-D-W-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 1.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.29 1.64 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.05 3.12 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.30 2.03 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Strong 1598 Exceptional 1758 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.36 1.53 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 72% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.4 4.8 Exp: Shots on target Per game AVL MCI D-L-W-D-W W-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 1.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-L-L-D D-D-W-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 1.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.29 1.64 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.05 3.12 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.30 2.03 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Strong 1598 Exceptional 1758 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.36 1.53 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 72% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.4 4.8 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: XI attacking output. No other measure separates them as clearly. Manchester City lead it, 3.12 to 2.05. the side naming the more potent eleven normally comes out on top here – 70% of the time in recent seasons. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callManchester City to win: 45% against 30%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, what this eleven creates and recent shots on target – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For Manchester CityHome and away form D-D-W-W-W v L-W-L-L-D (decisive); XI attacking output 3.12 v 2.05 (decisive); Attack 2.03 v 1.30 (clear).
  • For Aston VillaXI defensive record 1.36 v 1.53 (useful).
  • FormAston Villa D-L-W-D-W, Manchester City W-W-W-W-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1 expected · 9 unavailable · 3 doubtfulManchester City 4-2-3-1 expected · 7 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Manchester City 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 Z. Suzuki 3 V. Lindelöf 5 T. Mings 2 M. Cash 29 Wan-Bissaka 8 B. Kamara 10 Buendía 7 J. McGinn 35 J. Gomes 44 J. Manzambi 11 N.Jackson
1 G. Donnarumma 6 M. Guéhi 3 Rúben 27 Matheus N. 24 J. Gvardiol 5 E. Anderson 17 Enzo 7 I. Ndiaye 10 R. Cherki 42 A. Semenyo 9 E. Haaland
  1. Z. Suzuki98%
  2. V. Lindelöf98%
  3. T. Mings86%
  4. M. Cash63%
  5. A. Wan-Bissaka44%
  6. B. Kamara98%
  7. Buendía92%
  8. J. McGinn83%
  9. J. Gomes58%
  10. J. Manzambi44%
  11. N.Jackson95%
  1. G. Donnarumma98%
  2. M. Guéhi98%
  3. Rúben98%
  4. Matheus N.79%
  5. J. Gvardiol65%
  6. E. Anderson81%
  7. Enzo80%
  8. I. Ndiaye79%
  9. R. Cherki73%
  10. A. Semenyo61%
  11. E. Haaland98%

Likely subs R. Barkley, T. Harwood-Bellis, L. Goretzka, G. Hemmings, I. Mbaye, B. Madjo, L. Bogarde

Likely subs N. O'Reilly, P. Foden, G. Rulli, Allan, A. Khusanov, R. Aït-Nouri, J. Doku

Doubts A. Wan-Bissaka doubtful, J. Manzambi doubtful, I. Maatsen injured, M. Ruggeri injured, G. Hemmings doubtful, Iling Jr unavailable, L. Lynch unavailable, O. Watkins unavailable

Doubts A. Semenyo doubtful, J. Monga unavailable, C. Echeverri unavailable, M. Alleyne unavailable, D. Mukasa unavailable, Rodrigo unavailable, T. Reijnders unavailable, K. Phillips unavailable

Our call: 30% AVL · 25% draw · 45% MCI  ·  bookmakers: 22% / 23% / 55%  ·  expected goals 1.29–1.64

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ Aston VillaMan City ▸Goals
Long-run strength 0.72
Home advantage 0.29
XI attacking output 0.10
Settled eleven 0.06
Shots on target 0.04
Defence 0.03
Everything else 0.12
Man City ahead by 0.35

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Man City come out 0.35 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Man City goals Aston Villa goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Aston Villa 0–0 Man City: 6% Aston Villa 0–1 Man City: 8% Aston Villa 0–2 Man City: 7% Aston Villa 0–3 Man City: 4% Aston Villa 0–4 Man City: 2% Aston Villa 0–5 Man City: <1% Aston Villa 0–6 Man City: <1% Aston Villa 1–0 Man City: 7% Aston Villa 1–1 Man City: 12% Aston Villa 1–2 Man City: 9% Aston Villa 1–3 Man City: 5% Aston Villa 1–4 Man City: 2% Aston Villa 1–5 Man City: <1% Aston Villa 1–6 Man City: <1% Aston Villa 2–0 Man City: 4% Aston Villa 2–1 Man City: 7% Aston Villa 2–2 Man City: 6% Aston Villa 2–3 Man City: 3% Aston Villa 2–4 Man City: 1% Aston Villa 2–5 Man City: <1% Aston Villa 2–6 Man City: <1% Aston Villa 3–0 Man City: 2% Aston Villa 3–1 Man City: 3% Aston Villa 3–2 Man City: 3% Aston Villa 3–3 Man City: 1% Aston Villa 3–4 Man City: <1% Aston Villa 3–5 Man City: <1% Aston Villa 3–6 Man City: <1% Aston Villa 4–0 Man City: <1% Aston Villa 4–1 Man City: 1% Aston Villa 4–2 Man City: <1% Aston Villa 4–3 Man City: <1% Aston Villa 4–4 Man City: <1% Aston Villa 4–5 Man City: <1% Aston Villa 5–0 Man City: <1% Aston Villa 5–1 Man City: <1% Aston Villa 5–2 Man City: <1% Aston Villa 5–3 Man City: <1% Aston Villa 6–1 Man City: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Aston Villa win, above it Man City do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →