Which Team Will Win?

Chelsea vs. Leeds United

Saturday 21st November 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 11

whichteamwillwin.com

Chelsea win

Chelsea crest
◀ Chelsea win Leeds United win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Leeds United crest

Confidence: Fair

MoreLess
CHE LEE L-D-L-W-W D-W-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-W-D-W D-L-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 53% 47% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.63 1.01 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.43 1.33 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Strong 1580 Average 1518 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.43 1.56 Defence Conceded per game 4.7 3.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 71% 74% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved CHE LEE L-D-L-W-W D-W-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-W-D-W D-L-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 53% 47% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.63 1.01 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.43 1.33 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Strong 1580 Average 1518 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.43 1.56 Defence Conceded per game 4.7 3.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 71% 74% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved

The key stat: XI defensive record. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. It goes to Leeds United: 1.33 to 1.43. When this gap appears, whoever fielded the more solid defence tends to win, in around 74% of cases. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

Against the call – it favours Leeds United; Chelsea are tipped because they lead on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and recent shots on target.

  • The callChelsea to win: 51% against 23%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and recent shots on target.
  • For ChelseaHome and away form L-W-W-D-W v D-L-W-D-L (clear); Goal difference at this venue 0.80 v -0.60 (clear); Shots on target 4.7 v 3.4 (useful).
  • For Leeds UnitedGK save rate 74% v 71% (slight); XI defensive record 1.33 v 1.43 (slight).
  • FormChelsea L-D-L-W-W, Leeds United D-W-D-L-D.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Chelsea 3-4-2-1 expected · 11 unavailable · 2 doubtfulLeeds United 3-4-2-1 expected · 7 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Chelsea 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

Leeds United 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

39 M. Penders 5 M. Lacroix 6 L. Colwill 34 J. Acheampong 3 W. Fofana 10 C. Palmer 17 M. Rogers 7 P. Neto 14 J. Henderson 25 Caicedo 9 João Pedro
1 J. Trafford 5 T. Muharemović 3 G. Gudmundsson 24 J. Justin 30 N. Elvedi 2 J. Bogle 18 A. Stach 4 E. Ampadu 22 Tanaka 19 N. Okafor 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
  1. M. Penders25%
  2. M. Lacroix80%
  3. L. Colwill80%
  4. J. Acheampong62%
  5. W. Fofana58%
  6. C. Palmer98%
  7. M. Rogers98%
  8. P. Neto98%
  9. J. Henderson60%
  10. Caicedo38%
  11. João Pedro78%
  1. J. Trafford98%
  2. T. Muharemović98%
  3. G. Gudmundsson98%
  4. J. Justin98%
  5. N. Elvedi98%
  6. J. Bogle94%
  7. A. Stach98%
  8. E. Ampadu98%
  9. Tanaka92%
  10. N. Okafor91%
  11. D. Calvert-Lewin97%

Likely subs J. Hato, R. Lavia, Chavarria, Estêvão, D. Welbeck, V. Barco, M. Palestra

Likely subs H. Wilson, L. Nmecha, B. Aaronson, J. Bijol, I. Gruev, J. Bahoya, S. Longstaff

Doubts Martinez injured, Chavarria doubtful, R. James injured, M. Gusto doubtful, E. Emegha injured, J. Gittens injured, T. Chalobah unavailable, F. Jörgensen unavailable

Doubts D. James doubtful, W. Gnonto unavailable, J. Harrison unavailable, J. Piroe unavailable, L. Perri unavailable, S. Bornauw unavailable, Mateo Joseph injured, J. Rodon injured

Our call: 51% CHE · 25% draw · 23% LEE  ·  expected goals 1.63–1.01

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ ChelseaLeeds United ▸Goals
Home advantage 0.26
Long-run strength 0.25
Shots on target 0.13
Settled eleven 0.03
Defence 0.01
Everything else 0.01
Chelsea ahead by 0.62

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Chelsea come out 0.62 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Leeds United goals Chelsea goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Chelsea 0–0 Leeds United: 7% Chelsea 0–1 Leeds United: 7% Chelsea 0–2 Leeds United: 4% Chelsea 0–3 Leeds United: 1% Chelsea 0–4 Leeds United: <1% Chelsea 0–5 Leeds United: <1% Chelsea 1–0 Leeds United: 11% Chelsea 1–1 Leeds United: 12% Chelsea 1–2 Leeds United: 6% Chelsea 1–3 Leeds United: 2% Chelsea 1–4 Leeds United: <1% Chelsea 1–5 Leeds United: <1% Chelsea 2–0 Leeds United: 9% Chelsea 2–1 Leeds United: 10% Chelsea 2–2 Leeds United: 5% Chelsea 2–3 Leeds United: 2% Chelsea 2–4 Leeds United: <1% Chelsea 2–5 Leeds United: <1% Chelsea 3–0 Leeds United: 5% Chelsea 3–1 Leeds United: 5% Chelsea 3–2 Leeds United: 3% Chelsea 3–3 Leeds United: <1% Chelsea 3–4 Leeds United: <1% Chelsea 4–0 Leeds United: 2% Chelsea 4–1 Leeds United: 2% Chelsea 4–2 Leeds United: 1% Chelsea 4–3 Leeds United: <1% Chelsea 4–4 Leeds United: <1% Chelsea 5–0 Leeds United: <1% Chelsea 5–1 Leeds United: <1% Chelsea 5–2 Leeds United: <1% Chelsea 5–3 Leeds United: <1% Chelsea 6–0 Leeds United: <1% Chelsea 6–1 Leeds United: <1% Chelsea 6–2 Leeds United: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Chelsea win, above it Leeds United do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →