Which Team Will Win?

Sunderland vs. Leeds United

Sunday 25th October 2026 (Kick Off: 16:30) · Gameweek 8

whichteamwillwin.com

Sunderland win

Sunderland crest
◀ Sunderland win Leeds United win ▶ 27% draw chance bookmakers
Leeds United crest

Knife-edge – Sunderland shade it

MoreLess
SUN LEE D-L-L-L-L D-W-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches -1.60 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-W-L-L D-L-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 52% 48% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.41 1.28 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.65 1.33 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 59% 74% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.6 3.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game Below average 1470 Average 1518 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.63 1.56 Defence Conceded per game 2.33 2.08 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven SUN LEE D-L-L-L-L D-W-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches -1.60 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-W-L-L D-L-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 52% 48% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.41 1.28 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.65 1.33 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 59% 74% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.6 3.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game Below average 1470 Average 1518 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.63 1.56 Defence Conceded per game 2.33 2.08 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven

The key stat: XI defensive record. This is the widest gap between them. Leeds United come out on top, 1.33 against 1.65. In matches like this, whoever fielded the more solid defence usually wins – about 69% of the time. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

Against the call – Leeds United lead on it, and Sunderland still shade the call – on home advantage, recent shots on target and what this eleven creates.

  • The callKnife-edge – Sunderland 40%, draw 27%, Leeds United 34%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Sunderland comes from home advantage, recent shots on target and what this eleven creates.
  • For SunderlandShots on target 4.6 v 3.4 (useful); Possession 52% v 48% (slight); Home and away form D-W-W-L-L v D-L-W-D-L (slight).
  • For Leeds UnitedGK save rate 74% v 59% (decisive); Goal difference 0.40 v -1.60 (decisive); XI defensive record 1.33 v 1.65 (clear).
  • FormSunderland D-L-L-L-L, Leeds United D-W-D-L-D.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Sunderland 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable · 3 doubtfulLeeds United 3-4-2-1 expected · 7 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Sunderland 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Leeds United 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

22 R. Roefs 20 N. Mukiele 17 Reinildo 12 T. Meunier 32 T. Hume 6 Methalie 28 E.Le Fée 34 G. Xhaka 27 N. Sadiki 10 N.Angulo 9 B. Brobbey
1 J. Trafford 5 T. Muharemović 3 G. Gudmundsson 24 J. Justin 30 N. Elvedi 2 J. Bogle 18 A. Stach 4 E. Ampadu 22 Tanaka 19 N. Okafor 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
  1. R. Roefs98%
  2. N. Mukiele98%
  3. Reinildo78%
  4. T. Meunier53%
  5. T. Hume43%
  6. Methalie25%
  7. E.Le Fée98%
  8. G. Xhaka98%
  9. N. Sadiki96%
  10. N.Angulo71%
  11. B. Brobbey30%
  1. J. Trafford98%
  2. T. Muharemović98%
  3. G. Gudmundsson98%
  4. J. Justin98%
  5. N. Elvedi98%
  6. J. Bogle94%
  7. A. Stach98%
  8. E. Ampadu98%
  9. Tanaka92%
  10. N. Okafor91%
  11. D. Calvert-Lewin97%

Likely subs M. Fofana, H. Diarra, C. Talbi, J. Ahoka, J.Angulo, M. Ellborg, L. O'Nien

Likely subs H. Wilson, L. Nmecha, B. Aaronson, J. Bijol, I. Gruev, J. Bahoya, S. Longstaff

Doubts K. Danso suspended, T. Meunier doubtful, B. Brobbey doubtful, D. Ballard injured, W. Isidor doubtful, L. Hjelde unavailable, J. Seelt unavailable, A. Patterson unavailable

Doubts D. James doubtful, W. Gnonto unavailable, J. Harrison unavailable, J. Piroe unavailable, L. Perri unavailable, S. Bornauw unavailable, Mateo Joseph injured, J. Rodon injured

Our call: 40% SUN · 27% draw · 34% LEE  ·  bookmakers: 34% / 29% / 38%  ·  expected goals 1.41–1.28

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ SunderlandLeeds United ▸Goals
Home advantage 0.27
Long-run strength 0.20
Cup match in the week 0.17
Shots on target 0.12
Settled eleven 0.05
XI attacking output 0.02
Everything else 0.13
Sunderland ahead by 0.13

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Sunderland come out 0.13 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Leeds United goals Sunderland goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Sunderland 0–0 Leeds United: 7% Sunderland 0–1 Leeds United: 8% Sunderland 0–2 Leeds United: 6% Sunderland 0–3 Leeds United: 2% Sunderland 0–4 Leeds United: <1% Sunderland 0–5 Leeds United: <1% Sunderland 1–0 Leeds United: 9% Sunderland 1–1 Leeds United: 13% Sunderland 1–2 Leeds United: 8% Sunderland 1–3 Leeds United: 3% Sunderland 1–4 Leeds United: 1% Sunderland 1–5 Leeds United: <1% Sunderland 1–6 Leeds United: <1% Sunderland 2–0 Leeds United: 7% Sunderland 2–1 Leeds United: 9% Sunderland 2–2 Leeds United: 6% Sunderland 2–3 Leeds United: 2% Sunderland 2–4 Leeds United: <1% Sunderland 2–5 Leeds United: <1% Sunderland 3–0 Leeds United: 3% Sunderland 3–1 Leeds United: 4% Sunderland 3–2 Leeds United: 3% Sunderland 3–3 Leeds United: 1% Sunderland 3–4 Leeds United: <1% Sunderland 3–5 Leeds United: <1% Sunderland 4–0 Leeds United: 1% Sunderland 4–1 Leeds United: 1% Sunderland 4–2 Leeds United: <1% Sunderland 4–3 Leeds United: <1% Sunderland 4–4 Leeds United: <1% Sunderland 5–0 Leeds United: <1% Sunderland 5–1 Leeds United: <1% Sunderland 5–2 Leeds United: <1% Sunderland 5–3 Leeds United: <1% Sunderland 6–0 Leeds United: <1% Sunderland 6–1 Leeds United: <1% Sunderland 6–2 Leeds United: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Sunderland win, above it Leeds United do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →