Which Team Will Win?

Bournemouth vs. Leeds United

Saturday 31st October 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 9

whichteamwillwin.com

Bournemouth win

Bournemouth crest
◀ Bournemouth win Leeds United win ▶ 24% draw chance bookmakers
Leeds United crest

Confidence: Fair

MoreLess
BOU LEE D-D-L-L-W D-W-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-D-L-W D-L-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.20 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.78 0.96 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.92 2.08 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 62% 74% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.12 1.56 Defence Conceded per game 4.6 3.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.19 1.33 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Strong 1571 Average 1518 Elo performance 1500 is average BOU LEE D-D-L-L-W D-W-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-D-L-W D-L-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.20 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.78 0.96 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.92 2.08 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 62% 74% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.12 1.56 Defence Conceded per game 4.6 3.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.19 1.33 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Strong 1571 Average 1518 Elo performance 1500 is average

The key stat: XI attacking output. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. It goes to Bournemouth: 2.92 to 2.08. When this gap appears, whoever fielded the greater attacking threat tends to win, in around 70% of cases. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callBournemouth to win: 56% against 20%, with the draw at 24%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and recent shots on target – the strongest pull the other way is a cup tie in the other side's legs.
  • For BournemouthXI attacking output 2.92 v 2.08 (clear); Goals 1.78 v 0.96 (useful); Defence 1.12 v 1.56 (useful).
  • For Leeds UnitedGK save rate 74% v 62% (decisive); Goal difference 0.40 v -0.60 (useful).
  • FormBournemouth D-D-L-L-W, Leeds United D-W-D-L-D.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1 expected · 6 unavailableLeeds United 3-4-2-1 expected · 7 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Leeds United 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

1 Đ. Petrović 5 J. Hill 3 A. Truffert 14 A. Silva 15 A. Smith 37 Rayan 12 T. Adams 16 M. Tavernier 10 R. Christie 19 J. Kluivert 9 Evanilson
1 J. Trafford 5 T. Muharemović 3 G. Gudmundsson 24 J. Justin 30 N. Elvedi 2 J. Bogle 18 A. Stach 4 E. Ampadu 22 Tanaka 19 N. Okafor 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
  1. Đ. Petrović98%
  2. J. Hill98%
  3. A. Truffert98%
  4. A. Silva98%
  5. A. Smith97%
  6. Rayan98%
  7. T. Adams97%
  8. M. Tavernier95%
  9. R. Christie59%
  10. J. Kluivert39%
  11. Evanilson98%
  1. J. Trafford98%
  2. T. Muharemović98%
  3. G. Gudmundsson98%
  4. J. Justin98%
  5. N. Elvedi98%
  6. J. Bogle94%
  7. A. Stach98%
  8. E. Ampadu98%
  9. Tanaka92%
  10. N. Okafor91%
  11. D. Calvert-Lewin97%

Likely subs M. Di Gregorio, Á. Rodríguez, D. Brooks, B. Diakité, B. Gannon-Doak, A. Adli, Sanchez

Likely subs H. Wilson, L. Nmecha, B. Aaronson, J. Bijol, I. Gruev, J. Bahoya, S. Longstaff

Doubts A. Scott injured, W. Dennis unavailable, Kroupi.Jr injured, E. Ünal unavailable, Milosavljević injured, J.Araujo injured

Doubts D. James doubtful, W. Gnonto unavailable, J. Harrison unavailable, J. Piroe unavailable, L. Perri unavailable, S. Bornauw unavailable, Mateo Joseph injured, J. Rodon injured

Our call: 56% BOU · 24% draw · 20% LEE  ·  bookmakers: 42% / 27% / 31%  ·  expected goals 1.78–0.96

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ BournemouthLeeds United ▸Goals
Home advantage 0.27
Long-run strength 0.21
Cup match in the week 0.17
Shots on target 0.12
XI attacking output 0.07
Defence 0.05
Everything else 0.26
Bournemouth ahead by 0.82

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Bournemouth come out 0.82 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Leeds United goals Bournemouth goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Bournemouth 0–0 Leeds United: 7% Bournemouth 0–1 Leeds United: 6% Bournemouth 0–2 Leeds United: 3% Bournemouth 0–3 Leeds United: <1% Bournemouth 0–4 Leeds United: <1% Bournemouth 1–0 Leeds United: 11% Bournemouth 1–1 Leeds United: 11% Bournemouth 1–2 Leeds United: 5% Bournemouth 1–3 Leeds United: 2% Bournemouth 1–4 Leeds United: <1% Bournemouth 1–5 Leeds United: <1% Bournemouth 2–0 Leeds United: 10% Bournemouth 2–1 Leeds United: 10% Bournemouth 2–2 Leeds United: 5% Bournemouth 2–3 Leeds United: 2% Bournemouth 2–4 Leeds United: <1% Bournemouth 2–5 Leeds United: <1% Bournemouth 3–0 Leeds United: 6% Bournemouth 3–1 Leeds United: 6% Bournemouth 3–2 Leeds United: 3% Bournemouth 3–3 Leeds United: <1% Bournemouth 3–4 Leeds United: <1% Bournemouth 4–0 Leeds United: 3% Bournemouth 4–1 Leeds United: 3% Bournemouth 4–2 Leeds United: 1% Bournemouth 4–3 Leeds United: <1% Bournemouth 4–4 Leeds United: <1% Bournemouth 5–0 Leeds United: <1% Bournemouth 5–1 Leeds United: <1% Bournemouth 5–2 Leeds United: <1% Bournemouth 5–3 Leeds United: <1% Bournemouth 6–0 Leeds United: <1% Bournemouth 6–1 Leeds United: <1% Bournemouth 6–2 Leeds United: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Bournemouth win, above it Leeds United do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →