Which Team Will Win?

Leeds United vs. Tottenham Hotspur

Saturday 7th November 2026 (Kick Off: 12:30) · Gameweek 10

whichteamwillwin.com

Leeds United win

Leeds United crest
◀ Leeds United win Tottenham win ▶ 27% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Tottenham Hotspur crest

Confidence: Slight

MoreLess
LEE TOT D-W-D-L-D L-D-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-W-D-D W-L-L-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 45% 55% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.48 1.04 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.33 1.27 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Average 1518 Below average 1454 Elo performance 1500 is average 74% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.56 1.13 Defence Conceded per game 1.31 1.19 Attack Goals and expected goals per game LEE TOT D-W-D-L-D L-D-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-W-D-D W-L-L-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 45% 55% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.48 1.04 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.33 1.27 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Average 1518 Below average 1454 Elo performance 1500 is average 74% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.56 1.13 Defence Conceded per game 1.31 1.19 Attack Goals and expected goals per game

The key stat: XI defensive record. This is the widest gap between them. It goes to Tottenham Hotspur: 1.27 to 1.33. In matches like this, whoever fielded the more solid defence usually wins – about 74% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

Against the call – it favours Tottenham Hotspur; Leeds United are tipped because they lead on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and changes in the other camp.

  • The callLeeds United to win: 47% against 26%, with the draw at 27%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and changes in the other camp – the strongest pull the other way is the defence in front of them.
  • For Leeds UnitedGK save rate 74% v 65% (decisive); Goal difference at this venue 0.80 v -0.60 (clear); Home and away form W-D-W-D-D v W-L-L-D-D (useful).
  • For Tottenham HotspurPossession 55% v 45% (clear); Defence 1.13 v 1.56 (useful); XI defensive record 1.27 v 1.33 (marginal).
  • FormLeeds United D-W-D-L-D, Tottenham Hotspur L-D-D-L-D.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Leeds United 3-4-2-1 expected · 7 unavailable · 1 doubtfulTottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1 expected · 16 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Leeds United 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 J. Trafford 5 T. Muharemović 3 G. Gudmundsson 24 J. Justin 30 N. Elvedi 2 J. Bogle 18 A. Stach 4 E. Ampadu 22 Tanaka 19 N. Okafor 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
31 Kinsky 6 J. Van Hecke 37 Van de Ven 3 A. Robertson 16 S. Tonali 14 A. Gray 18 M. Fernandes 11 M. Tel 8 C. Gallagher 22 O. Marmoush 19 Solanke
  1. J. Trafford98%
  2. T. Muharemović98%
  3. G. Gudmundsson98%
  4. J. Justin98%
  5. N. Elvedi98%
  6. J. Bogle94%
  7. A. Stach98%
  8. E. Ampadu98%
  9. Tanaka92%
  10. N. Okafor91%
  11. D. Calvert-Lewin97%
  1. Kinsky98%
  2. J. Van Hecke98%
  3. M. Van de Ven81%
  4. A. Robertson61%
  5. S. Tonali98%
  6. A. Gray64%
  7. M. Fernandes54%
  8. M. Tel39%
  9. C. Gallagher38%
  10. O. Marmoush80%
  11. Solanke57%

Likely subs H. Wilson, L. Nmecha, B. Aaronson, J. Bijol, I. Gruev, J. Bahoya, S. Longstaff

Likely subs D. Udogie, M. Kudus, J. Maddison, Tosin, M. Dubravka, B. Davies, Senesi

Doubts D. James doubtful, W. Gnonto unavailable, J. Harrison unavailable, J. Piroe unavailable, L. Perri unavailable, S. Bornauw unavailable, Mateo Joseph injured, J. Rodon injured

Doubts R. Bentancur suspended, Sávio injured, Pedro Porro injured, A. Phillips unavailable, L. Bergvall injured, M. Mudryk injured, M. Moore unavailable, D. Kulusevski doubtful

Our call: 47% LEE · 27% draw · 26% TOT  ·  expected goals 1.48–1.04

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ Leeds UnitedTottenham ▸Goals
Home advantage 0.25
Long-run strength 0.25
Settled eleven 0.06
Defence 0.04
XI attacking output 0.02
Everything else 0.06
Leeds United ahead by 0.44

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Leeds United come out 0.44 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Tottenham goals Leeds United goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Leeds United 0–0 Tottenham: 8% Leeds United 0–1 Tottenham: 8% Leeds United 0–2 Tottenham: 4% Leeds United 0–3 Tottenham: 2% Leeds United 0–4 Tottenham: <1% Leeds United 0–5 Tottenham: <1% Leeds United 1–0 Tottenham: 12% Leeds United 1–1 Tottenham: 13% Leeds United 1–2 Tottenham: 6% Leeds United 1–3 Tottenham: 2% Leeds United 1–4 Tottenham: <1% Leeds United 1–5 Tottenham: <1% Leeds United 2–0 Tottenham: 9% Leeds United 2–1 Tottenham: 9% Leeds United 2–2 Tottenham: 5% Leeds United 2–3 Tottenham: 2% Leeds United 2–4 Tottenham: <1% Leeds United 2–5 Tottenham: <1% Leeds United 3–0 Tottenham: 4% Leeds United 3–1 Tottenham: 5% Leeds United 3–2 Tottenham: 2% Leeds United 3–3 Tottenham: <1% Leeds United 3–4 Tottenham: <1% Leeds United 4–0 Tottenham: 2% Leeds United 4–1 Tottenham: 2% Leeds United 4–2 Tottenham: <1% Leeds United 4–3 Tottenham: <1% Leeds United 4–4 Tottenham: <1% Leeds United 5–0 Tottenham: <1% Leeds United 5–1 Tottenham: <1% Leeds United 5–2 Tottenham: <1% Leeds United 5–3 Tottenham: <1% Leeds United 6–0 Tottenham: <1% Leeds United 6–1 Tottenham: <1% Leeds United 6–2 Tottenham: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Leeds United win, above it Tottenham do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →