Which Team Will Win?

Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester City

Saturday 7th November 2026 (Kick Off: 17:30) · Gameweek 10

whichteamwillwin.com

Manchester City win

Nottingham Forest crest
◀ Forest win Man City win ▶ 22% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Manchester City crest

Confidence: Strong

MoreLess
NFO MCI D-W-L-L-L W-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 1.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-L-D-L-L D-D-W-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 1.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 44% 56% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.00 1.95 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Average 1501 Exceptional 1758 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 2.57 3.12 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.53 2.03 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.34 1.53 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 68% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.2 4.8 Exp: Shots on target Per game NFO MCI D-W-L-L-L W-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 1.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-L-D-L-L D-D-W-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 1.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 44% 56% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.00 1.95 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Average 1501 Exceptional 1758 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 2.57 3.12 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.53 2.03 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.34 1.53 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 68% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.2 4.8 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: Elo performance. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Manchester City come out on top, Exceptional against Average. When this gap appears, the side carrying the stronger record tends to win, in around 75% of cases. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callManchester City to win: 59% against 19%, with the draw at 22%. Confidence strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and what this eleven creates – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For Manchester CityHome and away form D-D-W-W-W v D-L-D-L-L (decisive); Elo performance 1758 v 1501 (decisive); Goal difference 1.60 v -0.60 (decisive).
  • For Nottingham ForestXI defensive record 1.34 v 1.53 (useful).
  • FormNottingham Forest D-W-L-L-L, Manchester City W-W-W-W-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1 expected · 7 unavailable · 1 doubtfulManchester City 4-2-3-1 expected · 7 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

Manchester City 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

26 M. Sels 5 Murillo 3 N.Williams 27 Muñoz 2 O. Diomande 23 Jair Cunha 24 J. McAtee 21 X. Schlager 14 D. Ndoye 10 M. Gibbs-White 19 L. Delap
1 G. Donnarumma 6 M. Guéhi 3 Rúben 27 Matheus N. 24 J. Gvardiol 5 E. Anderson 17 Enzo 7 I. Ndiaye 10 R. Cherki 42 A. Semenyo 9 E. Haaland
  1. M. Sels98%
  2. Murillo98%
  3. N.Williams98%
  4. Muñoz82%
  5. O. Diomande78%
  6. Jair Cunha59%
  7. J. McAtee98%
  8. X. Schlager98%
  9. D. Ndoye90%
  10. M. Gibbs-White60%
  11. L. Delap97%
  1. G. Donnarumma98%
  2. M. Guéhi98%
  3. Rúben98%
  4. Matheus N.79%
  5. J. Gvardiol65%
  6. E. Anderson81%
  7. Enzo80%
  8. I. Ndiaye79%
  9. R. Cherki73%
  10. A. Semenyo61%
  11. E. Haaland98%

Likely subs O. Aina, S. Benda, C. Hudson-Odoi, C. Wood, N. Milenković, A. Kalimuendo, I.Sangaré

Likely subs N. O'Reilly, P. Foden, G. Rulli, Allan, A. Khusanov, R. Aït-Nouri, J. Doku

Doubts M. Gibbs-White doubtful, T. Bindon unavailable, Igor Jesus injured, D. Bakwa unavailable, O. Hutchinson unavailable, Morato unavailable, N. Savona injured, Z. Abbott unavailable

Doubts A. Semenyo doubtful, J. Monga unavailable, C. Echeverri unavailable, M. Alleyne unavailable, D. Mukasa unavailable, Rodrigo unavailable, T. Reijnders unavailable, K. Phillips unavailable

Our call: 18% NFO · 22% draw · 59% MCI  ·  expected goals 1.00–1.95

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ ForestMan City ▸Goals
Long-run strength 1.12
Home advantage 0.29
Shots on target 0.06
Settled eleven 0.06
XI attacking output 0.05
Defence 0.02
Everything else 0.08
Man City ahead by 0.95

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Man City come out 0.95 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Man City goals Forest goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Forest 0–0 Man City: 6% Forest 0–1 Man City: 10% Forest 0–2 Man City: 10% Forest 0–3 Man City: 6% Forest 0–4 Man City: 3% Forest 0–5 Man City: 1% Forest 0–6 Man City: <1% Forest 1–0 Man City: 5% Forest 1–1 Man City: 11% Forest 1–2 Man City: 10% Forest 1–3 Man City: 6% Forest 1–4 Man City: 3% Forest 1–5 Man City: 1% Forest 1–6 Man City: <1% Forest 2–0 Man City: 3% Forest 2–1 Man City: 5% Forest 2–2 Man City: 5% Forest 2–3 Man City: 3% Forest 2–4 Man City: 2% Forest 2–5 Man City: <1% Forest 2–6 Man City: <1% Forest 3–0 Man City: <1% Forest 3–1 Man City: 2% Forest 3–2 Man City: 2% Forest 3–3 Man City: 1% Forest 3–4 Man City: <1% Forest 3–5 Man City: <1% Forest 3–6 Man City: <1% Forest 4–0 Man City: <1% Forest 4–1 Man City: <1% Forest 4–2 Man City: <1% Forest 4–3 Man City: <1% Forest 4–4 Man City: <1% Forest 4–5 Man City: <1% Forest 5–1 Man City: <1% Forest 5–2 Man City: <1% Forest 5–3 Man City: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Forest win, above it Man City do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →