Which Team Will Win?

Manchester City 3–2 Ipswich Town

Saturday 17th October 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

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Manchester City win

3–2Full time

Manchester City crest
◀ Man City win Ipswich Town win ▶ 11% draw chance bookmakers
Ipswich Town crest

Confidence: Very strong

MCI IPS W-W-W-W-W L-L-W-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches 2.00 -0.80 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-L-W-W-W D-L-L-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.20 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 57% 43% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 3.03 0.71 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1757 Weak 1390 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 3.33 2.01 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.40 1.58 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.89 1.33 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 74% 58% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved MCI IPS W-W-W-W-W L-L-W-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches 2.00 -0.80 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-L-W-W-W D-L-L-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.20 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 57% 43% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 3.03 0.71 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1757 Weak 1390 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 3.33 2.01 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.40 1.58 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.89 1.33 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 74% 58% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved

The key stat: Elo performance. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Manchester City come out on top, Exceptional against Weak. When this gap appears, the side carrying the stronger record tends to win, in around 74% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callManchester City to win: 83% against 6%, with the draw at 11%. Confidence very strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and what this eleven creates – the strongest pull the other way is a cup tie in the other side's legs.
  • For Manchester CityGoal difference 2.00 v -0.80 (decisive); Goals 3.03 v 0.71 (decisive); Elo performance 1757 v 1390 (decisive).
  • For Ipswich TownNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormManchester City W-W-W-W-W, Ipswich Town L-L-W-L-W.
Manchester City 4-2-3-1 confirmedIpswich Town 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Manchester City 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 G. Donnarumma 33 N. O'Reilly 6 M. Guéhi 3 Rúben Dias 27 Matheus Nunes 32 A. Bouaddi 8 M. Kovačić 11 J. Doku 47 P. Foden 7 I. Ndiaye 9 E. Haaland
28 C. Walton 3 L. Davis 24 J. Greaves 6 I. Diop 26 D. O'Shea 25 E. Palacios 12 Florentino 38 D. Maeda 10 J. Enciso 42 A. Ouattara 19 Emersonn
  1. G. Donnarumma
  2. N. O'Reilly
  3. M. Guéhi
  4. Rúben Dias
  5. Matheus Nunes
  6. A. Bouaddi
  7. M. Kovačić
  8. J. Doku
  9. P. Foden
  10. I. Ndiaye
  11. E. Haaland
  1. C. Walton
  2. L. Davis
  3. J. Greaves
  4. I. Diop
  5. D. O'Shea
  6. E. Palacios
  7. Florentino
  8. D. Maeda
  9. J. Enciso
  10. A. Ouattara
  11. Emersonn

Substitutes E. Anderson, Allan, R. Aït-Nouri, R. Cherki, E. Fernández, J. Gvardiol, A. Khusanov, G. Rulli, A. Semenyo

Substitutes C. Akpom, J. Clarke, Z. Flemming, D. Furlong, A. Fatawu, C. Kipré, A. Matusiwa, J. Philogene, K. Scherpen

Our call: 83% MCI · 11% draw · 6% IPS  ·  bookmakers: 76% / 15% / 9%  ·  expected goals 3.03–0.71

Last updated 17 Oct at 14:09

What separates them

Reason◂ Man CityIpswich Town ▸Goals
Long-run strength 1.79
Home advantage 0.32
Cup match in the week 0.20
XI attacking output 0.14
Shots on target 0.13
XI strength vs usual 0.05
Everything else 0.09
Man City ahead by 2.32

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Man City come out 2.32 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 3–0

Ipswich Town goals Man City goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Man City 0–0 Ipswich Town: 3% Man City 0–1 Ipswich Town: 2% Man City 0–2 Ipswich Town: <1% Man City 0–3 Ipswich Town: <1% Man City 1–0 Ipswich Town: 7% Man City 1–1 Ipswich Town: 5% Man City 1–2 Ipswich Town: 2% Man City 1–3 Ipswich Town: <1% Man City 1–4 Ipswich Town: <1% Man City 2–0 Ipswich Town: 11% Man City 2–1 Ipswich Town: 8% Man City 2–2 Ipswich Town: 3% Man City 2–3 Ipswich Town: <1% Man City 2–4 Ipswich Town: <1% Man City 3–0 Ipswich Town: 11% Man City 3–1 Ipswich Town: 8% Man City 3–2 Ipswich Town: 3% Man City 3–3 Ipswich Town: <1% Man City 3–4 Ipswich Town: <1% Man City 4–0 Ipswich Town: 8% Man City 4–1 Ipswich Town: 6% Man City 4–2 Ipswich Town: 2% Man City 4–3 Ipswich Town: <1% Man City 4–4 Ipswich Town: <1% Man City 5–0 Ipswich Town: 5% Man City 5–1 Ipswich Town: 4% Man City 5–2 Ipswich Town: 1% Man City 5–3 Ipswich Town: <1% Man City 5–4 Ipswich Town: <1% Man City 6–0 Ipswich Town: 3% Man City 6–1 Ipswich Town: 2% Man City 6–2 Ipswich Town: <1% Man City 6–3 Ipswich Town: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Man City win, above it Ipswich Town do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →