Which Team Will Win?

Manchester City vs. Brighton & Hove Albion

Saturday 31st October 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 9

whichteamwillwin.com

Manchester City win

Manchester City crest
◀ Man City win Brighton win ▶ 22% draw chance bookmakers
Brighton & Hove Albion crest

Confidence: Strong

MoreLess
MCI BHA W-W-W-W-W D-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches 1.60 3.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-W-W-W L-L-L-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 2.01 1.07 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1758 Strong 1596 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 2.03 2.48 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.53 1.34 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 3.12 2.44 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 75% 71% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved MCI BHA W-W-W-W-W D-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches 1.60 3.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-W-W-W L-L-L-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 2.01 1.07 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1758 Strong 1596 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 2.03 2.48 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.53 1.34 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 3.12 2.44 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 75% 71% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved

The key stat: Elo performance. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. It goes to Manchester City: Exceptional to Strong. When this gap appears, the side carrying the stronger record tends to win, in around 74% of cases. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callManchester City to win: 59% against 19%, with the draw at 22%. Confidence strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and what this eleven creates – the strongest pull the other way is recent shots on target.
  • For Manchester CityHome and away form L-W-W-W-W v L-L-L-W-W (clear); Elo performance 1758 v 1596 (clear); Goals 2.01 v 1.07 (clear).
  • For Brighton & Hove AlbionGoal difference 3.00 v 1.60 (clear); Attack 2.48 v 2.03 (useful); XI defensive record 1.34 v 1.53 (useful).
  • FormManchester City W-W-W-W-W, Brighton & Hove Albion D-W-W-W-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Manchester City 4-2-3-1 expected · 7 unavailable · 1 doubtfulBrighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1 expected · 12 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Manchester City 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 G. Donnarumma 6 M. Guéhi 3 Rúben 27 Matheus N. 24 J. Gvardiol 5 E. Anderson 17 Enzo 7 I. Ndiaye 10 R. Cherki 42 A. Semenyo 9 E. Haaland
1 B. Verbruggen 44 Vuskovic 24 F.Kadıoğlu 29 M. De Cuyper 21 O. Boscagli 5 L. Dunk 13 P. Groß 26 Y. Ayari 25 Gomez 14 Andrés 19 C. Kostoulas
  1. G. Donnarumma98%
  2. M. Guéhi98%
  3. Rúben98%
  4. Matheus N.79%
  5. J. Gvardiol65%
  6. E. Anderson81%
  7. Enzo80%
  8. I. Ndiaye79%
  9. R. Cherki73%
  10. A. Semenyo61%
  11. E. Haaland98%
  1. B. Verbruggen98%
  2. Vuskovic98%
  3. F.Kadıoğlu98%
  4. M. De Cuyper97%
  5. O. Boscagli96%
  6. L. Dunk63%
  7. P. Groß98%
  8. Y. Ayari98%
  9. Gomez98%
  10. Andrés62%
  11. C. Kostoulas94%

Likely subs N. O'Reilly, P. Foden, G. Rulli, Allan, A. Khusanov, R. Aït-Nouri, J. Doku

Likely subs M. Yalcouyé, P. Struijk, J. Hinshelwood, M. O'Riley, Georginio, M. Svoboda, I. Osman

Doubts A. Semenyo doubtful, J. Monga unavailable, C. Echeverri unavailable, M. Alleyne unavailable, D. Mukasa unavailable, Rodrigo unavailable, T. Reijnders unavailable, K. Phillips unavailable

Doubts F. Azeez injured, P. Struijk doubtful, A. Cozier-Duberry unavailable, Z. Yohanna injured, Mitoma injured, Y. Minteh injured, S. Tzimas injured, F. Buonanotte unavailable

Our call: 59% MCI · 22% draw · 19% BHA  ·  bookmakers: 59% / 22% / 20%  ·  expected goals 2.01–1.07

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ Man CityBrighton ▸Goals
Long-run strength 0.74
Home advantage 0.30
Shots on target 0.08
Settled eleven 0.07
XI attacking output 0.07
Defence 0.04
Everything else 0.03
Man City ahead by 0.94

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Man City come out 0.94 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Brighton goals Man City goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Man City 0–0 Brighton: 5% Man City 0–1 Brighton: 5% Man City 0–2 Brighton: 3% Man City 0–3 Brighton: <1% Man City 0–4 Brighton: <1% Man City 0–5 Brighton: <1% Man City 1–0 Brighton: 9% Man City 1–1 Brighton: 10% Man City 1–2 Brighton: 5% Man City 1–3 Brighton: 2% Man City 1–4 Brighton: <1% Man City 1–5 Brighton: <1% Man City 2–0 Brighton: 9% Man City 2–1 Brighton: 10% Man City 2–2 Brighton: 5% Man City 2–3 Brighton: 2% Man City 2–4 Brighton: <1% Man City 2–5 Brighton: <1% Man City 3–0 Brighton: 6% Man City 3–1 Brighton: 7% Man City 3–2 Brighton: 4% Man City 3–3 Brighton: 1% Man City 3–4 Brighton: <1% Man City 3–5 Brighton: <1% Man City 4–0 Brighton: 3% Man City 4–1 Brighton: 3% Man City 4–2 Brighton: 2% Man City 4–3 Brighton: <1% Man City 4–4 Brighton: <1% Man City 5–0 Brighton: 1% Man City 5–1 Brighton: 1% Man City 5–2 Brighton: <1% Man City 5–3 Brighton: <1% Man City 5–4 Brighton: <1% Man City 6–0 Brighton: <1% Man City 6–1 Brighton: <1% Man City 6–2 Brighton: <1% Man City 6–3 Brighton: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Man City win, above it Brighton do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →