Which Team Will Win?

Bournemouth vs. Nottingham Forest

Saturday 21st November 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 11

whichteamwillwin.com

Bournemouth win

Bournemouth crest
◀ Bournemouth win Forest win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Nottingham Forest crest

Confidence: Fair

MoreLess
BOU NFO D-D-L-L-W D-W-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-D-L-W W-L-D-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.20 0.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.72 1.03 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.92 2.57 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Strong 1571 Average 1501 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.45 1.53 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 62% 68% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.12 1.42 Defence Conceded per game 4.6 4.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game BOU NFO D-D-L-L-W D-W-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-D-L-W W-L-D-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.20 0.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.72 1.03 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.92 2.57 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Strong 1571 Average 1501 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.45 1.53 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 62% 68% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.12 1.42 Defence Conceded per game 4.6 4.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: XI attacking output. This is the widest gap between them. Bournemouth come out on top, 2.92 against 2.57. In matches like this, whoever fielded the greater attacking threat usually wins – about 72% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callBournemouth to win: 53% against 22%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target.
  • For BournemouthGoals 1.72 v 1.03 (useful); Defence 1.12 v 1.42 (useful); Elo performance 1571 v 1501 (slight).
  • For Nottingham ForestGK save rate 68% v 62% (clear); Home and away form W-L-D-W-L v D-D-D-L-W (marginal); Attack 1.53 v 1.45 (marginal).
  • FormBournemouth D-D-L-L-W, Nottingham Forest D-W-L-L-L.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1 expected · 6 unavailableNottingham Forest 3-4-2-1 expected · 7 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

1 Đ. Petrović 5 J. Hill 3 A. Truffert 14 A. Silva 15 A. Smith 37 Rayan 12 T. Adams 16 M. Tavernier 10 R. Christie 19 J. Kluivert 9 Evanilson
26 M. Sels 5 Murillo 3 N.Williams 27 Muñoz 2 O. Diomande 23 Jair Cunha 24 J. McAtee 21 X. Schlager 14 D. Ndoye 10 M. Gibbs-White 19 L. Delap
  1. Đ. Petrović98%
  2. J. Hill98%
  3. A. Truffert98%
  4. A. Silva98%
  5. A. Smith97%
  6. Rayan98%
  7. T. Adams97%
  8. M. Tavernier95%
  9. R. Christie59%
  10. J. Kluivert39%
  11. Evanilson98%
  1. M. Sels98%
  2. Murillo98%
  3. N.Williams98%
  4. Muñoz82%
  5. O. Diomande78%
  6. Jair Cunha59%
  7. J. McAtee98%
  8. X. Schlager98%
  9. D. Ndoye90%
  10. M. Gibbs-White60%
  11. L. Delap97%

Likely subs M. Di Gregorio, Á. Rodríguez, D. Brooks, B. Diakité, B. Gannon-Doak, A. Adli, Sanchez

Likely subs O. Aina, S. Benda, C. Hudson-Odoi, C. Wood, N. Milenković, A. Kalimuendo, I.Sangaré

Doubts A. Scott injured, W. Dennis unavailable, Kroupi.Jr injured, E. Ünal unavailable, Milosavljević injured, J.Araujo injured

Doubts M. Gibbs-White doubtful, T. Bindon unavailable, Igor Jesus injured, D. Bakwa unavailable, O. Hutchinson unavailable, Morato unavailable, N. Savona injured, Z. Abbott unavailable

Our call: 53% BOU · 24% draw · 22% NFO  ·  expected goals 1.72–1.03

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ BournemouthForest ▸Goals
Long-run strength 0.29
Home advantage 0.27
Shots on target 0.04
Defence 0.03
XI attacking output 0.03
XI strength vs usual 0.01
Everything else 0.03
Bournemouth ahead by 0.70

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Bournemouth come out 0.70 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Forest goals Bournemouth goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Bournemouth 0–0 Forest: 7% Bournemouth 0–1 Forest: 6% Bournemouth 0–2 Forest: 3% Bournemouth 0–3 Forest: 1% Bournemouth 0–4 Forest: <1% Bournemouth 0–5 Forest: <1% Bournemouth 1–0 Forest: 11% Bournemouth 1–1 Forest: 12% Bournemouth 1–2 Forest: 6% Bournemouth 1–3 Forest: 2% Bournemouth 1–4 Forest: <1% Bournemouth 1–5 Forest: <1% Bournemouth 2–0 Forest: 9% Bournemouth 2–1 Forest: 10% Bournemouth 2–2 Forest: 5% Bournemouth 2–3 Forest: 2% Bournemouth 2–4 Forest: <1% Bournemouth 2–5 Forest: <1% Bournemouth 3–0 Forest: 5% Bournemouth 3–1 Forest: 6% Bournemouth 3–2 Forest: 3% Bournemouth 3–3 Forest: <1% Bournemouth 3–4 Forest: <1% Bournemouth 3–5 Forest: <1% Bournemouth 4–0 Forest: 2% Bournemouth 4–1 Forest: 2% Bournemouth 4–2 Forest: 1% Bournemouth 4–3 Forest: <1% Bournemouth 4–4 Forest: <1% Bournemouth 5–0 Forest: <1% Bournemouth 5–1 Forest: <1% Bournemouth 5–2 Forest: <1% Bournemouth 5–3 Forest: <1% Bournemouth 6–0 Forest: <1% Bournemouth 6–1 Forest: <1% Bournemouth 6–2 Forest: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Bournemouth win, above it Forest do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →