Which Team Will Win?

Bournemouth 2–0 Sunderland

Sunday 18th October 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

whichteamwillwin.com
MoreLess

Bournemouth win

2–0Full time

Bournemouth crest
◀ Bournemouth win Sunderland win ▶ 24% draw chance bookmakers
Sunderland crest

Confidence: Fair

BOU SUN D-D-D-L-L W-D-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches -1.00 -1.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-D-D-L D-W-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.81 1.03 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.40 1.65 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Strong 1565 Average 1476 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.32 1.39 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.32 1.57 Defence Conceded per game 2.20 2.07 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 4.6 4.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game BOU SUN D-D-D-L-L W-D-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches -1.00 -1.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-D-D-L D-W-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.81 1.03 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.40 1.65 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Strong 1565 Average 1476 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.32 1.39 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.32 1.57 Defence Conceded per game 2.20 2.07 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 4.6 4.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: Attack. This is the widest gap between them. Sunderland lead it, 1.65 to 1.40. In matches like this, the side scoring more freely usually wins – about 72% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

Against the call – Sunderland come out ahead on it, and Bournemouth are favoured anyway – on the strength of the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target.

  • The callBournemouth to win: 55% against 21%, with the draw at 24%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target.
  • For BournemouthGoals 1.81 v 1.03 (useful); Elo performance 1565 v 1476 (useful); Defence 1.32 v 1.57 (slight).
  • For SunderlandAttack 1.65 v 1.40 (slight).
  • FormBournemouth D-D-D-L-L, Sunderland W-D-L-L-L.
Bournemouth 4-2-3-1 confirmedSunderland 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Sunderland 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 Đ. Petrović 3 A. Truffert 14 António Silva 5 J. Hill 15 A. Smith 10 R. Christie 12 T. Adams 16 M. Tavernier 4 L. Cook 37 Rayan 9 Evanilson
22 R. Roefs 17 Reinildo Mandava 15 O. Alderete 4 K. Danso 20 N. Mukiele 27 N. Sadiki 34 G. Xhaka 11 C. Rigg 28 E. Le Fée 32 T. Hume 57 T. Tutierov
  1. Đ. Petrović
  2. A. Truffert
  3. António Silva
  4. J. Hill
  5. A. Smith
  6. R. Christie
  7. T. Adams
  8. M. Tavernier
  9. L. Cook
  10. Rayan
  11. Evanilson
  1. R. Roefs
  2. Reinildo Mandava
  3. O. Alderete
  4. K. Danso
  5. N. Mukiele
  6. N. Sadiki
  7. G. Xhaka
  8. C. Rigg
  9. E. Le Fée
  10. T. Hume
  11. T. Tutierov

Substitutes A. Adli, D. Brooks, M. Di Gregorio, B. Diakité, B. Gannon-Doak, J. Kluivert, Á. Rodríguez, J. Soler, Juanlu Sánchez

Substitutes J. Ahoka, R. Angulo, N. Angulo, H. Diarra, M. Ellborg, M. Fofana, D. Méthalie, L. O'Nien, C. Talbi

Our call: 55% BOU · 24% draw · 21% SUN  ·  bookmakers: 46% / 27% / 27%  ·  expected goals 1.81–1.03

Last updated 18 Oct at 13:16

What separates them

Reason◂ BournemouthSunderland ▸Goals
Long-run strength 0.37
Home advantage 0.28
Shots on target 0.03
Settled eleven 0.03
Defence 0.03
XI strength vs usual 0.01
Everything else 0.02
Bournemouth ahead by 0.77

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Bournemouth come out 0.77 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Sunderland goals Bournemouth goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Bournemouth 0–0 Sunderland: 6% Bournemouth 0–1 Sunderland: 6% Bournemouth 0–2 Sunderland: 3% Bournemouth 0–3 Sunderland: 1% Bournemouth 0–4 Sunderland: <1% Bournemouth 0–5 Sunderland: <1% Bournemouth 1–0 Sunderland: 10% Bournemouth 1–1 Sunderland: 11% Bournemouth 1–2 Sunderland: 6% Bournemouth 1–3 Sunderland: 2% Bournemouth 1–4 Sunderland: <1% Bournemouth 1–5 Sunderland: <1% Bournemouth 2–0 Sunderland: 10% Bournemouth 2–1 Sunderland: 10% Bournemouth 2–2 Sunderland: 5% Bournemouth 2–3 Sunderland: 2% Bournemouth 2–4 Sunderland: <1% Bournemouth 2–5 Sunderland: <1% Bournemouth 3–0 Sunderland: 6% Bournemouth 3–1 Sunderland: 6% Bournemouth 3–2 Sunderland: 3% Bournemouth 3–3 Sunderland: 1% Bournemouth 3–4 Sunderland: <1% Bournemouth 3–5 Sunderland: <1% Bournemouth 4–0 Sunderland: 3% Bournemouth 4–1 Sunderland: 3% Bournemouth 4–2 Sunderland: 1% Bournemouth 4–3 Sunderland: <1% Bournemouth 4–4 Sunderland: <1% Bournemouth 5–0 Sunderland: <1% Bournemouth 5–1 Sunderland: <1% Bournemouth 5–2 Sunderland: <1% Bournemouth 5–3 Sunderland: <1% Bournemouth 6–0 Sunderland: <1% Bournemouth 6–1 Sunderland: <1% Bournemouth 6–2 Sunderland: <1% Bournemouth 6–3 Sunderland: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Bournemouth win, above it Sunderland do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →