Which Team Will Win?

Crystal Palace vs. Liverpool

Sunday 8th November 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 10

whichteamwillwin.com

Liverpool win

Crystal Palace crest
◀ Crystal Palace win Liverpool win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Liverpool crest

Confidence: Fair

MoreLess
CRY LIV W-L-D-W-L W-D-W-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-L-L-L-W L-D-W-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 40% 60% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.09 1.71 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.68 1.16 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 3.9 5.1 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.84 1.22 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Average 1505 Very strong 1641 Elo performance 1500 is average 67% 68% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved CRY LIV W-L-D-W-L W-D-W-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-L-L-L-W L-D-W-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 40% 60% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.09 1.71 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.68 1.16 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 3.9 5.1 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.84 1.22 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Average 1505 Very strong 1641 Elo performance 1500 is average 67% 68% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved

The key stat: Defence. This is the widest gap between them. Liverpool come out on top, 1.16 against 2.68. In matches like this, the side with the tighter defence usually wins – about 69% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callLiverpool to win: 51% against 24%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, the defence in front of them and recent shots on target – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For LiverpoolPossession 60% v 40% (decisive); Defence 1.16 v 2.68 (decisive); XI defensive record 1.22 v 1.84 (decisive).
  • For Crystal PalaceNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormCrystal Palace W-L-D-W-L, Liverpool W-D-W-L-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1 expected · 10 unavailable · 1 doubtfulLiverpool 4-2-3-1 expected · 11 unavailable Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

Liverpool 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

44 Benitez 25 A. Khalaili 26 C. Richards 3 T. Mitchell 6 J. Canvot 21 H. Ahanor 20 A. Wharton 18 D. Kamada 23 Q. Timber 10 Yeremy 22 J. Strand Larsen
1 A.Becker 4 Virgil 5 J. Jacquet 33 R. Araujo 6 M. Kerkez 7 F. Wirtz 10 A. Mac Allister 29 B. Barcola 23 V. Munoz 18 C. Gakpo 9 A. Isak
  1. Benitez80%
  2. A. Khalaili98%
  3. C. Richards98%
  4. T. Mitchell97%
  5. J. Canvot80%
  6. H. Ahanor38%
  7. A. Wharton98%
  8. D. Kamada98%
  9. Q. Timber94%
  10. Yeremy91%
  11. J. Strand Larsen79%
  1. A.Becker98%
  2. Virgil98%
  3. J. Jacquet98%
  4. R. Araujo93%
  5. M. Kerkez84%
  6. F. Wirtz96%
  7. A. Mac Allister82%
  8. B. Barcola79%
  9. V. Munoz75%
  10. C. Gakpo43%
  11. A. Isak76%

Likely subs A. Disasi, D. Osorio, Lerma, J. Mateta, I. Sarr, E. Nketiah, D. McNeil

Likely subs R. Gravenberch, R. Ngumoha, L. Koumas, J. Gomez, K. Tsimikas, Endo, G. Mamardashvili

Doubts R. Cardines unavailable, T. Tomiyasu injured, D. Henderson doubtful, B. Chilwell injured, J. Devenny unavailable, R. Esse unavailable, C. Uche unavailable, M.França unavailable

Doubts D. Szoboszlai injured, A. Pecsi unavailable, J. Frimpong injured, V. Jaros injured, G. Leoni injured, C. Ramsay unavailable, H. Ekitiké injured, C.Jones unavailable

Our call: 24% CRY · 25% draw · 51% LIV  ·  expected goals 1.09–1.71

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ Crystal PalaceLiverpool ▸Goals
Long-run strength 0.57
Home advantage 0.28
Defence 0.16
Shots on target 0.14
XI attacking output 0.04
XI defensive record 0.04
Everything else 0.06
Liverpool ahead by 0.62

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Liverpool come out 0.62 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Liverpool goals Crystal Palace goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Crystal Palace 0–0 Liverpool: 6% Crystal Palace 0–1 Liverpool: 10% Crystal Palace 0–2 Liverpool: 9% Crystal Palace 0–3 Liverpool: 5% Crystal Palace 0–4 Liverpool: 2% Crystal Palace 0–5 Liverpool: <1% Crystal Palace 0–6 Liverpool: <1% Crystal Palace 1–0 Liverpool: 6% Crystal Palace 1–1 Liverpool: 12% Crystal Palace 1–2 Liverpool: 10% Crystal Palace 1–3 Liverpool: 6% Crystal Palace 1–4 Liverpool: 2% Crystal Palace 1–5 Liverpool: <1% Crystal Palace 1–6 Liverpool: <1% Crystal Palace 2–0 Liverpool: 4% Crystal Palace 2–1 Liverpool: 6% Crystal Palace 2–2 Liverpool: 5% Crystal Palace 2–3 Liverpool: 3% Crystal Palace 2–4 Liverpool: 1% Crystal Palace 2–5 Liverpool: <1% Crystal Palace 2–6 Liverpool: <1% Crystal Palace 3–0 Liverpool: 1% Crystal Palace 3–1 Liverpool: 2% Crystal Palace 3–2 Liverpool: 2% Crystal Palace 3–3 Liverpool: 1% Crystal Palace 3–4 Liverpool: <1% Crystal Palace 3–5 Liverpool: <1% Crystal Palace 4–0 Liverpool: <1% Crystal Palace 4–1 Liverpool: <1% Crystal Palace 4–2 Liverpool: <1% Crystal Palace 4–3 Liverpool: <1% Crystal Palace 4–4 Liverpool: <1% Crystal Palace 5–0 Liverpool: <1% Crystal Palace 5–1 Liverpool: <1% Crystal Palace 5–2 Liverpool: <1% Crystal Palace 5–3 Liverpool: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Crystal Palace win, above it Liverpool do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →