Which Team Will Win?

Liverpool vs. Brighton & Hove Albion

Sunday 25th October 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 8

whichteamwillwin.com

Liverpool win

Liverpool crest
◀ Liverpool win Brighton win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers
Brighton & Hove Albion crest

Confidence: Fair

MoreLess
LIV BHA W-D-W-L-W D-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 3.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-D-D-L L-L-L-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 46% 54% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.69 1.09 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.60 2.48 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 68% 71% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 5.1 5.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.22 1.34 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Very strong 1641 Strong 1596 Elo performance 1500 is average LIV BHA W-D-W-L-W D-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 3.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-D-D-L L-L-L-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 46% 54% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.69 1.09 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.60 2.48 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 68% 71% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 5.1 5.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.22 1.34 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Very strong 1641 Strong 1596 Elo performance 1500 is average

The key stat: Attack. This is the widest gap between them. Brighton & Hove Albion lead it, 2.48 to 1.60. In matches like this, the side scoring more freely usually wins – about 71% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

Against the call – Brighton & Hove Albion come out ahead on it, and Liverpool are favoured anyway – on the strength of home advantage, the long-run strength gap and a cup tie in the other side's legs.

  • The callLiverpool to win: 51% against 24%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and a cup tie in the other side's legs – the strongest pull the other way is recent shots on target.
  • For LiverpoolGoals 1.69 v 1.09 (useful); XI defensive record 1.22 v 1.34 (slight); Elo performance 1641 v 1596 (slight).
  • For Brighton & Hove AlbionGoal difference 3.00 v 0.20 (decisive); Attack 2.48 v 1.60 (decisive); Goal difference at this venue 0.60 v -0.60 (useful).
  • FormLiverpool W-D-W-L-W, Brighton & Hove Albion D-W-W-W-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Liverpool 4-2-3-1 expected · 11 unavailableBrighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1 expected · 12 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Liverpool 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 A.Becker 4 Virgil 5 J. Jacquet 33 R. Araujo 6 M. Kerkez 7 F. Wirtz 10 A. Mac Allister 29 B. Barcola 23 V. Munoz 18 C. Gakpo 9 A. Isak
1 B. Verbruggen 44 Vuskovic 24 F.Kadıoğlu 29 M. De Cuyper 21 O. Boscagli 5 L. Dunk 13 P. Groß 26 Y. Ayari 25 Gomez 14 Andrés 19 C. Kostoulas
  1. A.Becker98%
  2. Virgil98%
  3. J. Jacquet98%
  4. R. Araujo93%
  5. M. Kerkez84%
  6. F. Wirtz96%
  7. A. Mac Allister82%
  8. B. Barcola79%
  9. V. Munoz75%
  10. C. Gakpo43%
  11. A. Isak76%
  1. B. Verbruggen98%
  2. Vuskovic98%
  3. F.Kadıoğlu98%
  4. M. De Cuyper97%
  5. O. Boscagli96%
  6. L. Dunk63%
  7. P. Groß98%
  8. Y. Ayari98%
  9. Gomez98%
  10. Andrés62%
  11. C. Kostoulas94%

Likely subs R. Gravenberch, R. Ngumoha, L. Koumas, J. Gomez, K. Tsimikas, Endo, G. Mamardashvili

Likely subs M. Yalcouyé, P. Struijk, J. Hinshelwood, M. O'Riley, Georginio, M. Svoboda, I. Osman

Doubts D. Szoboszlai injured, A. Pecsi unavailable, J. Frimpong injured, V. Jaros injured, G. Leoni injured, C. Ramsay unavailable, H. Ekitiké injured, C.Jones unavailable

Doubts F. Azeez injured, P. Struijk doubtful, A. Cozier-Duberry unavailable, Z. Yohanna injured, Mitoma injured, Y. Minteh injured, S. Tzimas injured, F. Buonanotte unavailable

Our call: 51% LIV · 25% draw · 24% BHA  ·  bookmakers: 46% / 25% / 29%  ·  expected goals 1.69–1.09

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ LiverpoolBrighton ▸Goals
Home advantage 0.28
Long-run strength 0.19
Cup match in the week 0.17
Shots on target 0.04
Settled eleven 0.01
Everything else 0.02
Liverpool ahead by 0.60

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Liverpool come out 0.60 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Brighton goals Liverpool goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Liverpool 0–0 Brighton: 7% Liverpool 0–1 Brighton: 6% Liverpool 0–2 Brighton: 4% Liverpool 0–3 Brighton: 1% Liverpool 0–4 Brighton: <1% Liverpool 0–5 Brighton: <1% Liverpool 1–0 Brighton: 10% Liverpool 1–1 Brighton: 12% Liverpool 1–2 Brighton: 6% Liverpool 1–3 Brighton: 2% Liverpool 1–4 Brighton: <1% Liverpool 1–5 Brighton: <1% Liverpool 2–0 Brighton: 9% Liverpool 2–1 Brighton: 10% Liverpool 2–2 Brighton: 5% Liverpool 2–3 Brighton: 2% Liverpool 2–4 Brighton: <1% Liverpool 2–5 Brighton: <1% Liverpool 3–0 Brighton: 5% Liverpool 3–1 Brighton: 5% Liverpool 3–2 Brighton: 3% Liverpool 3–3 Brighton: 1% Liverpool 3–4 Brighton: <1% Liverpool 3–5 Brighton: <1% Liverpool 4–0 Brighton: 2% Liverpool 4–1 Brighton: 2% Liverpool 4–2 Brighton: 1% Liverpool 4–3 Brighton: <1% Liverpool 4–4 Brighton: <1% Liverpool 5–0 Brighton: <1% Liverpool 5–1 Brighton: <1% Liverpool 5–2 Brighton: <1% Liverpool 5–3 Brighton: <1% Liverpool 6–0 Brighton: <1% Liverpool 6–1 Brighton: <1% Liverpool 6–2 Brighton: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Liverpool win, above it Brighton do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →