Which Team Will Win?

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Crystal Palace

Saturday 31st October 2026 (Kick Off: 17:30) · Gameweek 9

whichteamwillwin.com

Tottenham Hotspur win

Tottenham Hotspur crest
◀ Tottenham win Crystal Palace win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Crystal Palace crest

Knife-edge – Tottenham Hotspur shade it

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TOT CRY L-D-D-L-D W-L-D-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-L-D-L D-L-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 -1.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 60% 40% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.44 1.30 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.13 2.68 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.27 1.84 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Below average 1454 Average 1505 Elo performance 1500 is average 3.5 3.9 Exp: Shots on target Per game 2.30 1.97 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven TOT CRY L-D-D-L-D W-L-D-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-L-D-L D-L-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 -1.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 60% 40% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.44 1.30 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.13 2.68 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.27 1.84 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Below average 1454 Average 1505 Elo performance 1500 is average 3.5 3.9 Exp: Shots on target Per game 2.30 1.97 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven

The key stat: Defence. No other measure separates them as clearly. It goes to Tottenham Hotspur: 1.13 to 2.68. whoever was harder to score against normally comes out on top here – 69% of the time in recent seasons. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callKnife-edge – Tottenham Hotspur 40%, draw 26%, Crystal Palace 34%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Tottenham Hotspur comes from home advantage, the defence in front of them and a cup tie in the other side's legs.
  • For Tottenham HotspurPossession 60% v 40% (decisive); Defence 1.13 v 2.68 (decisive); XI defensive record 1.27 v 1.84 (decisive).
  • For Crystal PalaceElo performance 1505 v 1454 (slight); Shots on target 3.9 v 3.5 (slight).
  • FormTottenham Hotspur L-D-D-L-D, Crystal Palace W-L-D-W-L.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1 expected · 16 unavailable · 1 doubtfulCrystal Palace 3-4-2-1 expected · 10 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

31 Kinsky 6 J. Van Hecke 37 Van de Ven 3 A. Robertson 16 S. Tonali 14 A. Gray 18 M. Fernandes 11 M. Tel 8 C. Gallagher 22 O. Marmoush 19 Solanke
44 Benitez 25 A. Khalaili 26 C. Richards 3 T. Mitchell 6 J. Canvot 21 H. Ahanor 20 A. Wharton 18 D. Kamada 23 Q. Timber 10 Yeremy 22 J. Strand Larsen
  1. Kinsky98%
  2. J. Van Hecke98%
  3. M. Van de Ven81%
  4. A. Robertson61%
  5. S. Tonali98%
  6. A. Gray64%
  7. M. Fernandes54%
  8. M. Tel39%
  9. C. Gallagher38%
  10. O. Marmoush80%
  11. Solanke57%
  1. Benitez80%
  2. A. Khalaili98%
  3. C. Richards98%
  4. T. Mitchell97%
  5. J. Canvot80%
  6. H. Ahanor38%
  7. A. Wharton98%
  8. D. Kamada98%
  9. Q. Timber94%
  10. Yeremy91%
  11. J. Strand Larsen79%

Likely subs D. Udogie, M. Kudus, J. Maddison, Tosin, M. Dubravka, B. Davies, Senesi

Likely subs A. Disasi, D. Osorio, Lerma, J. Mateta, I. Sarr, E. Nketiah, D. McNeil

Doubts R. Bentancur suspended, Sávio injured, Pedro Porro injured, A. Phillips unavailable, L. Bergvall injured, M. Mudryk injured, M. Moore unavailable, D. Kulusevski doubtful

Doubts R. Cardines unavailable, T. Tomiyasu injured, D. Henderson doubtful, B. Chilwell injured, J. Devenny unavailable, R. Esse unavailable, C. Uche unavailable, M.França unavailable

Our call: 40% TOT · 26% draw · 34% CRY  ·  bookmakers: 56% / 24% / 20%  ·  expected goals 1.44–1.30

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ TottenhamCrystal Palace ▸Goals
Home advantage 0.28
Long-run strength 0.22
Cup match in the week 0.17
Defence 0.16
Settled eleven 0.07
Shots on target 0.04
Everything else 0.15
Tottenham ahead by 0.13

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Tottenham come out 0.13 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Crystal Palace goals Tottenham goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Tottenham 0–0 Crystal Palace: 7% Tottenham 0–1 Crystal Palace: 8% Tottenham 0–2 Crystal Palace: 5% Tottenham 0–3 Crystal Palace: 2% Tottenham 0–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Tottenham 0–5 Crystal Palace: <1% Tottenham 1–0 Crystal Palace: 9% Tottenham 1–1 Crystal Palace: 12% Tottenham 1–2 Crystal Palace: 8% Tottenham 1–3 Crystal Palace: 3% Tottenham 1–4 Crystal Palace: 1% Tottenham 1–5 Crystal Palace: <1% Tottenham 1–6 Crystal Palace: <1% Tottenham 2–0 Crystal Palace: 7% Tottenham 2–1 Crystal Palace: 9% Tottenham 2–2 Crystal Palace: 6% Tottenham 2–3 Crystal Palace: 2% Tottenham 2–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Tottenham 2–5 Crystal Palace: <1% Tottenham 3–0 Crystal Palace: 3% Tottenham 3–1 Crystal Palace: 4% Tottenham 3–2 Crystal Palace: 3% Tottenham 3–3 Crystal Palace: 1% Tottenham 3–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Tottenham 3–5 Crystal Palace: <1% Tottenham 4–0 Crystal Palace: 1% Tottenham 4–1 Crystal Palace: 1% Tottenham 4–2 Crystal Palace: <1% Tottenham 4–3 Crystal Palace: <1% Tottenham 4–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Tottenham 5–0 Crystal Palace: <1% Tottenham 5–1 Crystal Palace: <1% Tottenham 5–2 Crystal Palace: <1% Tottenham 5–3 Crystal Palace: <1% Tottenham 6–0 Crystal Palace: <1% Tottenham 6–1 Crystal Palace: <1% Tottenham 6–2 Crystal Palace: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Tottenham win, above it Crystal Palace do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →