Which Team Will Win?

Crystal Palace vs. Newcastle United

Sunday 25th October 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 8

whichteamwillwin.com

Newcastle United win

Crystal Palace crest
◀ Crystal Palace win Newcastle win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Newcastle United crest

Knife-edge – Newcastle United shade it

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CRY NEW W-L-D-W-L D-L-W-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -1.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-L-L-L-W D-L-W-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 -1.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 40% 60% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.38 1.44 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.68 1.51 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.84 1.55 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.97 2.34 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.20 1.01 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 67% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Average 1505 Above average 1529 Elo performance 1500 is average CRY NEW W-L-D-W-L D-L-W-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -1.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-L-L-L-W D-L-W-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 -1.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 40% 60% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.38 1.44 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.68 1.51 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.84 1.55 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.97 2.34 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.20 1.01 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 67% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Average 1505 Above average 1529 Elo performance 1500 is average

The key stat: Defence. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Newcastle United lead it, 1.51 to 2.68. When this gap appears, the side with the tighter defence tends to win, in around 66% of cases. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callKnife-edge – Crystal Palace 36%, draw 26%, Newcastle United 38%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Newcastle United comes from a cup tie in the other side's legs, the defence in front of them and the long-run strength gap.
  • For Newcastle UnitedPossession 60% v 40% (decisive); Defence 1.51 v 2.68 (decisive); XI defensive record 1.55 v 1.84 (clear).
  • For Crystal PalaceGoal difference -0.60 v -1.20 (slight); Goal difference at this venue -0.60 v -1.20 (slight); GK save rate 67% v 65% (slight).
  • FormCrystal Palace W-L-D-W-L, Newcastle United D-L-W-L-L.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1 expected · 10 unavailable · 1 doubtfulNewcastle United 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

44 Benitez 25 A. Khalaili 26 C. Richards 3 T. Mitchell 6 J. Canvot 21 H. Ahanor 20 A. Wharton 18 D. Kamada 23 Q. Timber 10 Yeremy 22 J. Strand Larsen
21 Horníček 3 L. Hall 12 M. Thiaw 4 S. Botman 11 H. Barnes 67 L.Miley 28 J. Willock 6 N.Gonzalez 23 J.Murphy 9 Y. Wissa 20 M. Fernandez-Pardo
  1. Benitez80%
  2. A. Khalaili98%
  3. C. Richards98%
  4. T. Mitchell97%
  5. J. Canvot80%
  6. H. Ahanor38%
  7. A. Wharton98%
  8. D. Kamada98%
  9. Q. Timber94%
  10. Yeremy91%
  11. J. Strand Larsen79%
  1. Horníček98%
  2. L. Hall98%
  3. M. Thiaw98%
  4. S. Botman98%
  5. H. Barnes98%
  6. L.Miley94%
  7. J. Willock74%
  8. N.Gonzalez72%
  9. J.Murphy55%
  10. Y. Wissa98%
  11. M. Fernandez-Pardo75%

Likely subs A. Disasi, D. Osorio, Lerma, J. Mateta, I. Sarr, E. Nketiah, D. McNeil

Likely subs Dedić, S. Steur, W. Osula, B. Touré, N. Pope, F. Schär, D. Burn

Doubts R. Cardines unavailable, T. Tomiyasu injured, D. Henderson doubtful, B. Chilwell injured, J. Devenny unavailable, R. Esse unavailable, C. Uche unavailable, M.França unavailable

Doubts A. Elanga injured, S. Neave unavailable, E. Jaouen injured, L. Shahar unavailable, T. Livramento injured, J.Ramsey injured, N. Woltemade unavailable, A.Murphy unavailable

Our call: 36% CRY · 26% draw · 38% NEW  ·  bookmakers: 34% / 26% / 40%  ·  expected goals 1.38–1.44

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ Crystal PalaceNewcastle ▸Goals
Home advantage 0.28
Cup match in the week 0.18
Defence 0.13
Long-run strength 0.10
Shots on target 0.05
XI attacking output 0.03
Everything else 0.15
Newcastle ahead by 0.05

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Newcastle come out 0.05 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Newcastle goals Crystal Palace goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Crystal Palace 0–0 Newcastle: 6% Crystal Palace 0–1 Newcastle: 8% Crystal Palace 0–2 Newcastle: 6% Crystal Palace 0–3 Newcastle: 3% Crystal Palace 0–4 Newcastle: 1% Crystal Palace 0–5 Newcastle: <1% Crystal Palace 0–6 Newcastle: <1% Crystal Palace 1–0 Newcastle: 8% Crystal Palace 1–1 Newcastle: 12% Crystal Palace 1–2 Newcastle: 9% Crystal Palace 1–3 Newcastle: 4% Crystal Palace 1–4 Newcastle: 1% Crystal Palace 1–5 Newcastle: <1% Crystal Palace 1–6 Newcastle: <1% Crystal Palace 2–0 Newcastle: 6% Crystal Palace 2–1 Newcastle: 8% Crystal Palace 2–2 Newcastle: 6% Crystal Palace 2–3 Newcastle: 3% Crystal Palace 2–4 Newcastle: 1% Crystal Palace 2–5 Newcastle: <1% Crystal Palace 2–6 Newcastle: <1% Crystal Palace 3–0 Newcastle: 3% Crystal Palace 3–1 Newcastle: 4% Crystal Palace 3–2 Newcastle: 3% Crystal Palace 3–3 Newcastle: 1% Crystal Palace 3–4 Newcastle: <1% Crystal Palace 3–5 Newcastle: <1% Crystal Palace 4–0 Newcastle: <1% Crystal Palace 4–1 Newcastle: 1% Crystal Palace 4–2 Newcastle: <1% Crystal Palace 4–3 Newcastle: <1% Crystal Palace 4–4 Newcastle: <1% Crystal Palace 5–0 Newcastle: <1% Crystal Palace 5–1 Newcastle: <1% Crystal Palace 5–2 Newcastle: <1% Crystal Palace 5–3 Newcastle: <1% Crystal Palace 6–0 Newcastle: <1% Crystal Palace 6–1 Newcastle: <1% Crystal Palace 6–2 Newcastle: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Crystal Palace win, above it Newcastle do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →