Which Team Will Win?

Newcastle United vs. Everton

Monday 2nd November 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 9

whichteamwillwin.com

Newcastle United win

Newcastle United crest
◀ Newcastle win Everton win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers
Everton crest

Knife-edge – Newcastle United shade it

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NEW EVE D-L-W-L-L D-D-W-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches -1.20 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-D-W-L D-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 54% 46% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.59 1.31 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.55 1.36 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 65% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.34 2.27 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.01 1.19 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 4.3 4.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game NEW EVE D-L-W-L-L D-D-W-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches -1.20 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-D-W-L D-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 54% 46% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.59 1.31 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.55 1.36 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 65% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.34 2.27 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.01 1.19 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 4.3 4.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: XI defensive record. No other measure separates them as clearly. Everton lead it, 1.36 to 1.55. the side with the steadier back line normally comes out on top here – 69% of the time in recent seasons. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

Against the call – it favours Everton; the fine margin sits with Newcastle United, who edge home advantage.

  • The callKnife-edge – Newcastle United 44%, draw 25%, Everton 31%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Newcastle United comes from home advantage.
  • For Newcastle UnitedPossession 54% v 46% (useful); Home and away form W-D-D-W-L v D-L-D-D-D (useful); Goal difference at this venue 0.40 v -0.20 (slight).
  • For EvertonGoal difference -0.20 v -1.20 (useful); XI defensive record 1.36 v 1.55 (useful); GK save rate 69% v 65% (useful).
  • FormNewcastle United D-L-W-L-L, Everton D-D-W-D-L.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailableEverton 4-2-3-1 expected · 3 unavailable Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Everton 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

21 Horníček 3 L. Hall 12 M. Thiaw 4 S. Botman 11 H. Barnes 67 L.Miley 28 J. Willock 6 N.Gonzalez 23 J.Murphy 9 Y. Wissa 20 M. Fernandez-Pardo
1 J. Pickford 6 J. Tarkowski 4 Branthwaite 16 V. Mykolenko 2 Maitland-Niles 8 K. Dewsbury-Hall 37 J. Garner 45 H. Armstrong 22 B. Johnson 10 J. Grealish 11 T. Barry
  1. Horníček98%
  2. L. Hall98%
  3. M. Thiaw98%
  4. S. Botman98%
  5. H. Barnes98%
  6. L.Miley94%
  7. J. Willock74%
  8. N.Gonzalez72%
  9. J.Murphy55%
  10. Y. Wissa98%
  11. M. Fernandez-Pardo75%
  1. J. Pickford98%
  2. J. Tarkowski98%
  3. J. Branthwaite98%
  4. V. Mykolenko80%
  5. A. Maitland-Niles75%
  6. K. Dewsbury-Hall98%
  7. J. Garner98%
  8. H. Armstrong98%
  9. B. Johnson72%
  10. J. Grealish62%
  11. T. Barry98%

Likely subs Dedić, S. Steur, W. Osula, B. Touré, N. Pope, F. Schär, D. Burn

Likely subs T. George, M. Röhl, M. Travers, H. Hackney, T. Dibling, Alcaraz, C. Nørgaard

Doubts A. Elanga injured, S. Neave unavailable, E. Jaouen injured, L. Shahar unavailable, T. Livramento injured, J.Ramsey injured, N. Woltemade unavailable, A.Murphy unavailable

Doubts A. Aznou unavailable, Beto unavailable, N. Patterson unavailable

Our call: 43% NEW · 25% draw · 31% EVE  ·  bookmakers: 44% / 26% / 31%  ·  expected goals 1.59–1.31

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 16:17 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ NewcastleEverton ▸Goals
Home advantage 0.29
Shots on target 0.03
XI defensive record 0.01
Long-run strength 0.01
Everything else 0.01
Newcastle ahead by 0.27

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Newcastle come out 0.27 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Everton goals Newcastle goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Newcastle 0–0 Everton: 6% Newcastle 0–1 Everton: 7% Newcastle 0–2 Everton: 5% Newcastle 0–3 Everton: 2% Newcastle 0–4 Everton: <1% Newcastle 0–5 Everton: <1% Newcastle 1–0 Everton: 8% Newcastle 1–1 Everton: 12% Newcastle 1–2 Everton: 8% Newcastle 1–3 Everton: 3% Newcastle 1–4 Everton: 1% Newcastle 1–5 Everton: <1% Newcastle 1–6 Everton: <1% Newcastle 2–0 Everton: 7% Newcastle 2–1 Everton: 9% Newcastle 2–2 Everton: 6% Newcastle 2–3 Everton: 3% Newcastle 2–4 Everton: <1% Newcastle 2–5 Everton: <1% Newcastle 3–0 Everton: 4% Newcastle 3–1 Everton: 5% Newcastle 3–2 Everton: 3% Newcastle 3–3 Everton: 1% Newcastle 3–4 Everton: <1% Newcastle 3–5 Everton: <1% Newcastle 4–0 Everton: 1% Newcastle 4–1 Everton: 2% Newcastle 4–2 Everton: 1% Newcastle 4–3 Everton: <1% Newcastle 4–4 Everton: <1% Newcastle 5–0 Everton: <1% Newcastle 5–1 Everton: <1% Newcastle 5–2 Everton: <1% Newcastle 5–3 Everton: <1% Newcastle 5–4 Everton: <1% Newcastle 6–0 Everton: <1% Newcastle 6–1 Everton: <1% Newcastle 6–2 Everton: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Newcastle win, above it Everton do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →