Which Team Will Win?

Chelsea vs. Manchester United

Saturday 31st October 2026 (Kick Off: 12:30) · Gameweek 9

whichteamwillwin.com

Chelsea win

Chelsea crest
◀ Chelsea win Man United win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers
Manchester United crest

Knife-edge – Chelsea shade it

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CHE MUN L-D-L-W-W D-L-D-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-W-D-W W-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.55 1.37 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.07 2.82 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 71% 70% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.31 1.66 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 4.7 5.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.43 1.35 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven CHE MUN L-D-L-W-W D-L-D-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-W-D-W W-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.80 0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.55 1.37 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.07 2.82 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 71% 70% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.31 1.66 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 4.7 5.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.43 1.35 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven

The key stat: XI attacking output. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. It goes to Manchester United: 2.82 to 2.07. Historically, the side naming the more potent eleven takes these roughly 72% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

Against the call – it favours Manchester United; the fine margin sits with Chelsea, who edge home advantage and changes in the other camp.

  • The callKnife-edge – Chelsea 41%, draw 25%, Manchester United 33%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Chelsea comes from home advantage and changes in the other camp.
  • For ChelseaHome and away form L-W-W-D-W v W-L-D-D-D (useful); Goal difference 0.40 v -0.20 (slight); Goal difference at this venue 0.80 v 0.20 (slight).
  • For Manchester UnitedXI attacking output 2.82 v 2.07 (clear); Attack 1.66 v 1.31 (useful); Shots on target 5.3 v 4.7 (slight).
  • FormChelsea L-D-L-W-W, Manchester United D-L-D-D-D.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Chelsea 3-4-2-1 expected · 11 unavailable · 2 doubtfulManchester United 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable · 3 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Chelsea 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

Manchester United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

39 M. Penders 5 M. Lacroix 6 L. Colwill 34 J. Acheampong 3 W. Fofana 10 C. Palmer 17 M. Rogers 7 P. Neto 14 J. Henderson 25 Caicedo 9 João Pedro
1 S. Lammens 5 H. Maguire 2 Dalot 6 Martinez 23 L. Shaw 8 B.Fernandes 19 B. Mbeumo 18 Y. Tielemans 10 M. Cunha 37 K. Mainoo 9 M. Rashford
  1. M. Penders25%
  2. M. Lacroix80%
  3. L. Colwill80%
  4. J. Acheampong62%
  5. W. Fofana58%
  6. C. Palmer98%
  7. M. Rogers98%
  8. P. Neto98%
  9. J. Henderson60%
  10. Caicedo38%
  11. João Pedro78%
  1. S. Lammens98%
  2. H. Maguire98%
  3. Dalot82%
  4. Martinez72%
  5. L. Shaw45%
  6. B.Fernandes98%
  7. B. Mbeumo98%
  8. Y. Tielemans94%
  9. M. Cunha79%
  10. K. Mainoo59%
  11. M. Rashford56%

Likely subs J. Hato, R. Lavia, Chavarria, Estêvão, D. Welbeck, V. Barco, M. Palestra

Likely subs K. Darlow, L. Yoro, Amad, M. Mount, J. Zirkzee, M. De Ligt, S. Lacey

Doubts Martinez injured, Chavarria doubtful, R. James injured, M. Gusto doubtful, E. Emegha injured, J. Gittens injured, T. Chalobah unavailable, F. Jörgensen unavailable

Doubts Martinez doubtful, K. Mainoo doubtful, L. Shaw doubtful, P. Dorgu injured, T. Heaton injured, Šeško injured, Ugarte injured, T. Collyer unavailable

Our call: 41% CHE · 25% draw · 33% MUN  ·  bookmakers: 47% / 25% / 29%  ·  expected goals 1.55–1.37

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ ChelseaMan United ▸Goals
Home advantage 0.29
Cup match in the week 0.18
Long-run strength 0.09
Shots on target 0.08
XI attacking output 0.07
Settled eleven 0.03
Everything else 0.28
Chelsea ahead by 0.18

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Chelsea come out 0.18 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Man United goals Chelsea goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Chelsea 0–0 Man United: 6% Chelsea 0–1 Man United: 7% Chelsea 0–2 Man United: 5% Chelsea 0–3 Man United: 2% Chelsea 0–4 Man United: <1% Chelsea 0–5 Man United: <1% Chelsea 1–0 Man United: 8% Chelsea 1–1 Man United: 12% Chelsea 1–2 Man United: 8% Chelsea 1–3 Man United: 4% Chelsea 1–4 Man United: 1% Chelsea 1–5 Man United: <1% Chelsea 1–6 Man United: <1% Chelsea 2–0 Man United: 6% Chelsea 2–1 Man United: 9% Chelsea 2–2 Man United: 6% Chelsea 2–3 Man United: 3% Chelsea 2–4 Man United: <1% Chelsea 2–5 Man United: <1% Chelsea 2–6 Man United: <1% Chelsea 3–0 Man United: 3% Chelsea 3–1 Man United: 5% Chelsea 3–2 Man United: 3% Chelsea 3–3 Man United: 1% Chelsea 3–4 Man United: <1% Chelsea 3–5 Man United: <1% Chelsea 4–0 Man United: 1% Chelsea 4–1 Man United: 2% Chelsea 4–2 Man United: 1% Chelsea 4–3 Man United: <1% Chelsea 4–4 Man United: <1% Chelsea 4–5 Man United: <1% Chelsea 5–0 Man United: <1% Chelsea 5–1 Man United: <1% Chelsea 5–2 Man United: <1% Chelsea 5–3 Man United: <1% Chelsea 5–4 Man United: <1% Chelsea 6–0 Man United: <1% Chelsea 6–1 Man United: <1% Chelsea 6–2 Man United: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Chelsea win, above it Man United do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →